Horse Antepost
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Derby 2015
Derby 2015
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I tell you what, don't get drawn in by AOB's Beresford Stakes winner this year, if he wins it, as his last two winners, Geoffrey Chaucer and Ol Man River, have both looked pretty smart but both have been SMASHED 20+ lengths on there next two starts as 3yo's. New trend?
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will buick keep the ride on golden horn?
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I'm very surprised the Derby winner's not been mentioned in this thread.
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Pray do tell.
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Everybody seems to think that GLENEAGLES will go for the Irish Guineas/St James Palace stakes.
However, in the absence of any meaningful challenge from Ballydoyle, and the fact that the partners do like a Derby win, then is it so far fetched that he may line up? He's run the best trial and has the best form? His pedigree (Galileo out of a full sister to a 10F G1 winning horse) suggests he will stay. Galileo is obviously a big influence for stamina, and the dam has Roberto This is backed up by his Dosage Index of 1.20, the DI of his rivals as follows...Golden Horn (1.75), Jack Hobbs (1.18), Elm Park (1.18), Zarwaq (1.24). Everyone expects Elm Park and Jack Hobbs to stay-so why not Gleneagles? Remember Golden Horn's owner thinks he's a 10f horse, and the DI would bear this out. The optimum DI for a Derby winner is 1.0. I don't know if this is going to happen but there's reason to believe that its not the forlorn hope it seems. |
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Have to agree that I'm surprised they're not having a punt after their other challengers coming up short. I've said on here before that he doesn't look to be a Derby horse but that's mainly because of the way he's been campaigned and how his connections seem to view him. He's proved he can be put anywhere in a race and last year he was held up in rear in some slowly run races showing no signs of being too keen, so you wouldn't expect him to do a Dawn Approach.
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Also he didn't look to have anything like a hard race in the Guineas. Missing the Irish Guineas wouldn't be too much of a sacrifice and he could always be brought back down in trip if it proves a failed venture. By all accounts though it doesn't look to be on the cards.
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"You’d have to think about the Irish Guineas and the St James’s Palace Stakes for him now. He’s a very strong traveller and you’d like to keep him at a mile.
“It’s all pace with him. We’ve never had a miler by Galileo that travels like he does", said O'Brien. I'm not sure if there are any other reasons why O'Brien thinks Gleneagles is purely a miler but from the comments the main one seems to be him being a strong traveller. One of the strongest travellers in recent Guineas was Sea The Stars and it was no barrier to him staying the Derby trip. If anything, I'd say being a strong traveller was a help to getting the trip. I was guilty of underrating Gleneagles before the Guineas but even after upgrading him I couldn't say he was a horse with obvious blinding speed like a Frankel or El Gran Senor. I don't know any more than anyone else if he'll get the distance but I've seen far less likely attempts and I'd say he'd be in with a shout. |
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AOB is a puppet for a breeding operation. They have several 10f/12f stallions already in the breeding barn by Galileo. If they try and make out Gleneagles is an all speed Galileo miler they suddenly have a new commercial stallion covering 8f. Dont be surprised if Gleneagles is found some soft mile races then retired.
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Interesting thoughts-I don't see how a Derby/Guineas double would hurt a stallions breeding potential-its not done See the Stars any harm has it?
Gleneagles has a proper stallions pedigree, and his place in the breeding shed is guaranteed, whatever happens now. If Ballydoyle want to use him as a vehicle to promote Galileo as a mile getting stallion then good luck to them. The breeders will look at his overall record at stud, and see that Gleneagles is the exception not the rule. The lure of the double may be too hard for the boys to resist-there's not many colts that have won both. |
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Ahh, I misunderstood you jockeyhunter-you were referring to Gleneagles not Galileo...
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Fabre's Grey Lion would be an interesting outsider if he turns up - vibes looking fairly positive.
Unusually for me I hadn't had a bet in the race until now so have thrown my first few darts at this at 25/1 in the hope he runs. |
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Reportedly a runner, unclepuncle, and going for a racecourse gallop at the Breakfast with the Stars non-event. His form is working out pretty miserably, however, and his interrupted prep is not ideal.
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Paint me a beautiful picture Of Epsom in June!!!
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I find it hard to believe that Gleneagles will miss the race. He has the best form and should stay.
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Grey Lion a NR now, having been reported in the Daily Mail yesterday to be a runner. Either the journalists talk bullsh!t or the trainers do (cf Gosden saying a few weeks ago that Golden Horn wouldn't be supplemented).
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Yep - that was the quickest antepost non runner bet I've ever had.
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Apparently he hasn't even been in work for the last month so how did the rumour that he'd be running get going. And gvien it was reported in the paper yesterday why didn't someone contact Fabre immediately and find out, why has it taken 24 hours or more - does make you wonder?
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In Peter O'Sullevan's prime he would have been to France and Ireland and had the lowdown on all the Derby contenders.
Now we have the internet and forums and bloggers and layers. |
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what do people honestly make of elm parks run in the dante?
is it possible for such a horse to be so gassy/unfit/ needy of the run? in this horses case just maybe but i have never known it in all my years of following decent grade horses, so is it possible he can turn this run around on derby day???? (maybe not goldie horn just maybe way to good) on one hand you could argue he pulled 14 lengths clear of the forth horse and some good yardsticks to say that is as good as he might be, give or take a few lengths on the basis of him not having a prep race, whereas the others had had a run or do we look at his first run at salisbury when running a lowly 70's figure (beaten 6 lengths) as a backward juvenile, to say just maybe he just desperately needed the race? (i have to say i thought this maybe the case before he ran at york) but like sint pointed out he was ready to run in the guineas so should he of needed it? or like connections said, he was getting very lazy in his work... i really liked the fact he chased the fast early fractions at york with the choke out and was still in there pitching with a furlong to run whereas the winner had had a perfect trip out of the speed duel up front a tricky horse to figure out but i have to say i am tempted to go in again at the 8-1ew on offer nearer the day, obviously because i feel he needs good ground or softer to be really seen at his best and he will need to be at his best to win can he do it and come on the for the run that much or is he just a 120 horse (potentially) also if anyone has got any such horses i know night of thunder came on a bundle to win last years guineas but any other examples would be appreciated to fuel the confidence behind the horse |
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I think it was a good run. I believe he would have been fit enough but next time he should not be so keen, and what intrigues me about his run is that he would have found the ground too quick for his liking.Medrano's trainer pulled his horse out of the Dante on the day as he felt it was getting to fast. Epsom always has a nice cushion in it and that will suit him much better. He can turn the form around with Golden Horn if he does not stay the trip. Strongest stayer,traveller will win this race. I am already on at 10/1 but took some and and 9/1 yesterday in eachway doubles with a couple of Oaks guesses.
Workforce the only horse to be beaten in the Dante and then win at Epsom I believe, but there are obvious reasons why Elm Park is going to be a lot closer to the favourite next time. Don't forget, one of them may get lucky, or unlucky with the draw. |
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Are people still talking about Elm Park? Come on guys! The horse is by Phoenix Reach. He beat Nafaqa in the Royal Lodge, and Celestial Path (probably below form) and Aloft in the RP. He's now been heavily beaten by two much less exposed colts at York. Any mythical improvement you (generously or desperately) want to factor into him after SIX starts will be more than matched by his recent conquerors on their FOURTH. Forget Elm Park.
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2 more trials to come.
not been impressed by anything that should see out the trip. been a few that would consider if they were likely to stay. dante front two shouldnt stay. think we may see the odds change dramatically come sunday |
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I really am very surprised that Best of Times still hasn't been mentioned on this thread for the Derby. Has looked miles ahead of anything he's raced against, including some good, promising and highly regarded horses. Won at a canter last time despite being ridden dreadfully. Hold him up, produce him late. The only horse who appeals to me as a Derby winner.
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tbf what it has raced against isnt much but then again a lot of form lines are aw (you simply cant translate between aw and turf) lines bar rocky rider.
the line with cape clear island could put it around 10L ahead of that if you account for seasonal debut and we presume rocky rider ran his race at HQ last time....it is possible that RR bounced fater the sales race as it may have been way too hot for him and he ran above what his normal level would be. then HQ was running very odd that weekend too...so wouldnt take any line too literally. still looks a decent type though and at the price wouldnt put you off. |
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Best of Times is the only horse I've had a small interest in. Looks a really open year, and never known the AoB pecking order be so unclear...
We will obliviously find out alot more on Friday but would suggest he needs to be winning this pretty well if he is to figure in the big one. Pleasing to see him tackling Goodwood again though as he has proven he handles the track and more experience there should help him at Epsom. Think he will be a decent trade if nothing else. |
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A very black and white view Howellsy. And Aloft has not run since.
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If ground comes up soft on Derby day Hans Holbein has a shout.He is bred to stay five miles and if G.Canaletto does not win impressively on Sunday Moore will probably ride (again assuming soft ground at Epsom)
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Coolmore might run Found.
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True, Sint, and my default mode is that everything's complex and trenchant opinions are often unintelligent. However, when it comes to betting, I feel taking a strong view helps me to construct a bet. Elm Park is the last of the current principals I would want to include for the reasons stated. I'll be the first to come on here and accept the ridicule if I'm wrong!
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My opinion is Elm Park didn't quite run up to his RPT form in the Dante so can improve on that. If he does he has excellent prospects of a place as I'd be confident of him getting the trip, but the price makes no appeal to me for an each way bet.
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Very little chat about Zawraq? Golden Horn it's only danger best EW bet of the season this.
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I hope the winner is in this list of six horses:
Giovanni Canaletto; Hans Holbein; Jack Hobbs; Kilimanjaro; Prince Gagarin; Storm The Stars. I start with Racing Post ratings and eliminate low rated (Giovanni Canaletto is still low rated). Then I apply my seven pedigree rules Derby winners 1950 to 2014 had these points: 7 (21 wins); 6 (25); 5 (4); 4 (3); 3 (5): 2 (3); 1(4) 0 (0). Oaks winners 1950 to 2014 had these points: 7 (27); 6 (23); 5 (2); 4 (3); 3 (4); 2 (4); 1 (2) ;0 (0). Other pedigree filters are an AEI calculation (average earnings index) of sires, two different calculations of the likely staying distance of the runners, and the sire and damsire ratings. In some calculations I use all ancestors in the five generation pedigree of a runner (62 ancestors) Before deciding on elimination points I have done the same calculations for Derby winners from 1950. I had to ignore some Derby winners as I didn’t have full data to complete their calculation. My little bets are: Jack Hobbs €50 at 15.5; Hans Holbein €21 at 17; Storm the Stars €31.91 at 80; Prince Gagarin €5.88 at 469.59; Ol’ Man River €20 non-runner. Because Ballydoyle said Gleneagles was not running in the Derby I left him out of my calculations. I am not happy to see him left it at today’s declaration stage. |
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Another little bet is a place lay of Golden Horn: my €242.00 to win €220.00 at 2.1
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A few of us on here have been puzzled why Gleneagles apparently isn't being aimed at the race, Timeform make the case for him here
https://www.timeform.com/racing/Articles/jamie-lynchs-preview-where-gleneagles-dare-2252015 Personally I couldn't entertain Found as a likely winner. |
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I don't think Gleneagles wud not ave bin aimed at race had some of his other runners shown some kind of form now I think they will run it i hope not as its now my only loser but to plenty
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Gleneagles would shake the market up!
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Gleneagles would shake the market up!
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Gleneagles would shake the market up!
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Yes yes yes
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