Horse Antepost
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Derby 2015
Derby 2015
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Fighting weight
Johyn Gosden said of his Investec Derby duo: "When we put Golden Horn and Jack Hobbs on the scales before they left for Epsom this morning both weighed the same as they did before the Dante." But punters were not told their weights before the Dante and were not told their weights before the Derby and will not be told their weights before their next races. |
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Classy
 Very Classy |
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Howellsy, you were spot on and the Dante form should've been taken at face value. Still a nice run by JH in second. Well done Golden Horn backers.
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taht slowly run Dante worked none to bad ,must of been some poor orses in behind today ,maybe a hurdling prospect or two and a couple of winter a/w types
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Fantastic for the game that win, great advert for racing imo.
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The clock rarely lies.
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Tremendous performance from the winner.
Hopefully will follow the Sea The Stars route of Eclipse, Juddmonte, Irish Champion and Arc. |
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Cheers Figgis. Ultimately a boost for form students after yesterday's debacle. I had my bet on Golden Horn when I saw him at 150-1 on here some time before the Dante. Sadly my confidence extended no further than a tenner. I'd have won much more on Jack Hobbs and Giovanni, and especially if Giovanni had beaten Storm the Stars for third as I had him or Elm Park for the tricast. It's the first time I've made a profit on the race in 15 years of trying though ....
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That would be special uncle
Esp at York, would love to see him in action live |
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I think I managed to extract the maximum pain from that.
 Storm The Stars win bets at 80s down to 30s. Jock Hobbs win at 15.5. Place Lays of Golden Horn for a fair bit. Trifecta with Storm The Stars, Jack Hobbs and a few others (not the winner). I was sure the winner would not stay. |
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The pace set early was far too fast, set it up for the hold-up horses. Best horse won. Will reserve judgement for the moment on how good a race it was. JH will have great chance in Irish Derby if sent. TH had the 1.2.3 so well done them.Dante was the key but Elm Park was part of strong early pace & like HH didn't get home for same reason.
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The pace set early was far too fast, set it up for the hold-up horses. Best horse won. Will reserve judgement for the moment on how good a race it was. JH will have great chance in Irish Derby if sent. TH had the 1.2.3 so well done them.Dante was the key but Elm Park was part of strong early pace & like HH didn't get home for same reason.
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For the aftertimer, I don't recall anybody saying the Dante was slowly run.
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Taking the Dante at face value and looking at today's times you'd have to think he's a good winner, certainly up to scratch, if probably not an exceptional winner.
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He just does it so smoothly and clinically and I can see him mopping up Group 1's this season. Obviously soft ground in the Arc would be a problem, and the owner won't race him against Free Eagle so his campaign may revolve around just how good, and how sound, Free Eagle really is.
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Ignore the Free Eagle bit- getting my black, white and red silks mixed up.
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Yep, nice win from the Horn. EP looks like a 10f horse based on that but obviously went off very fast AND was keen. I think they should try him without a noseband.
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good winner and fair play for staying the trip.
not a good result for me. phil re hans hoblien.... think looking at his debut he ran on well on gf over a mile ....for a "stayer" who had also won over further on very soft ground at chester that looks a odd ofr a horse who would prefer soft. sure enough check its pedigree....shirley heights offspring have a higher percentage on gf which explains imo why he ran on well ona surface most would think he wouldnt be suited to. think todays 3 furlong sprint for the lead will mask this.....thought he stayed on well considering. be interesting to see his next placement. |
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I wonder if Coolmore are regretting not running Gleneagles as on breeding and dosage he was every bit as likely to get the trip as a very good winner in Golden Horn.
And his form was pretty rock solid, and the best going into the race, better than the winner's certainly. |
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Could Giovanni Canaleto be the Leger horse to take from the race?
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Could well be but a lot of racing to come before September at Doncaster.
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think hans is the ledger horse as long as they dont do a broadway flyer with it
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I make Golden Horn a slightly above average winner of the race. Better than the likes of Pour Moi and Ruler of the World but I have him below such as Workforce and Authorized. I have his Derby 1lb above Australia's but he's probably about the same horse after readjusting his Dante win, possibly he stays 12f marginally better. With the over generous (in my view) allowance 3yos receive off their elders at this time of year it'll take an exceptional older horse to beat him and there doesn't look to be many of those around. The most important consideration is how he comes out of the race. Both Authorized and Workforce ran below par in their next race after winning the Derby in style. If they hadn't redeemed their reputations on their very next start they would've been historically dismissed as poor Derby winners that had been overrated, a bit like Camelot who in my view was unfairly done down after never recovering from his Derby and Irish Derby exertions. In GH's favour, to the eye the winning effort didn't look quite as taxing as some of those others but you can't always tell.
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Howellsy, are you the chap that wrote the book? If so, excellent read.
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I think so johnn. Thanks mate.
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Workforce 2:31.33
Lammtarra 2:32:31 Golden Horn 2:32:32 Galileo 2:33.27 another eight under 2:34 |
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The feature of the race for me was the crazy pace set first by EP then by HH. EP ran too freely whilst HH setting a fast pace was clearly part of the AOB plan to stretch the stamina of GH. Unfortunately, going off too fast at Epsom means using up energy up the hill and having nothing left in reserve. The field reached the path at the bottom of Tattenham Corner around 18 L (3.0 secs) faster than the Coronation Cup fieled ans 31L (5.27 secs) faster than the previous days Oaks field.
As Bradley Wiggins demonstrated if you want to cover a given distance in the fastest time/given time & most distance, then you have to travel at the most efficient pace which is an even one. For me GH put up a fair performance and can be rated around 125/126 or thereabouts. He was ridden with restraint as was JH and they both benefited from being held onto. The pedigree esperts had a bad day on the face of it. GH's breeder was very familiar with the family and apparently saw GH as a 10f horse. Steve Miller of dosage theory fame was adament that on dosage figures GH "would empty." Well GH didn't. The dosage theory has had a couple of blows dealt to it (Sea of Stars had a dosage index of 3.0) which make it somewhat unreliable imo. HH was the horse most likely to stay according to Steve Miller. Perhaps we might yet see him in the Leger and if given a more sensible ride might yet prove to be the best stayer in the field. I wouldn't bet on it though  |
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I agree about the fast pace. 12f is stretching the stamina of most 3yos at this stage of the season anyway and when a very fast pace is set and a better horse is given a more patient ride it can often appear more superior than it really is.
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TF have made GH 131p, 13th top rated of all time and top-rated currently in Europe.. Seems a little too strong for me given the over-fast pace which has possibly distorted finishing positions.Looks like they have gone through Epicuris. Makes JH 126, STS 119, GC 116. TF ratings are now consistently higher than OR and RPR .
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with a basic knowledge of pedigrees, the winner was related to see the stars (cape cross) and comparing those two horses, they both have mr prospector on the damsides. all of this were big positives for the horse, the fact the breeder didnt think it would stay, wouldnt be swayed by someone like that who although knowledgeable about matings ect. THROUGHBRED PEDIGREES SIMPLIFIED good read, only half read, ive got the gist of the book. good run for JH, basically a re run of the dante. bookies got off lightly with legatissimo getting beat the previous day.
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Actually I think I may have initially overrated the race myself due to the exaggerated margins and my previous higher rating of Jack Hobbs. The other race figures, even though low in comparison, look too inflated which I'm not happy with on reflection. If I judge the race more in keeping with my Dante rating and accept that I'd overrated JH then everything else fits. Probably just an average winner after all and rightly or wrongly that's the view I'll be taking for future bets.
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wd winners he is a good horse
agree with sandown in regards pace - i don't know what clock hefferman and atzeni have in there heads but it was a suicide job imo...for me the run came to soon for elm park as he was beaten after 7 furlongs, he just maybe isn't that good but he was beaten before the straight for me, he could be difficult to place but it is just possible after chasing the fast early fractions at york and putting in a big effort he didn't back up here the race always looked like it would set up for the deep closing types and so it proved and they were strung out all over the downs, with the suicide pace collapsing at the 2 pole it was left to the two proven class horses in the race to pull clear and once again golden horns running style suiting how the race was set up for him. being able to sit out of the early burn up before unleashing that turn of foot and making jack hobbs look very one paced on the ground golden horn is very likeable colt but not sure the race was just a poor one depth wise and he just picked up some average group horses, who imo were average before the race and because of how the race was run these lesser classier types made him look an exceptional horse, he is a good winner of the race because of how far clear he pulled and because of his hold up run style the race shouldn't be bottoming him, with the rest of the season in mind i'm not sure how how jack hobbs will back up now but he is a good horse, it will interesting to see if they run him on that ground again but if he were mine he would be trained with the arc in mind and hope he would get some cut, also they would be able to back off him and he still looks very unfurnished, if he does turn up in the irish derby i wouldn't be keen if he is short price, as he just doesn't do anything quickly, he is a nice colt but the whole 3 year old division lacks any real depth class wise bar this winner who looks right up to scratch storm the stars ran a good race considering how warm he got before the race - he was quite close to the pace throughout without trying to go with the suicide pace, it is just possible he just stayed better than the others but considering how warm he got, he ran well above what he should of done for his in form trainer, he will be difficult to place now if going for the big pots because like the others in the race he seems a little way below top class |
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The thing is if Golden Horn doesn't quite live up to some of the high ratings it won't necessarily conclude whether he was a very good Derby winner or not. There could still be the argument that the Derby took too much out of him. The same differences of opinion were around after the disappointments of Motivator and Camelot. Some will judge the race purely on what the beaten horses do after but being too strict on that can be a bit dubious in my view.
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personally figgis i don't think the beaten horses will achieve much from this derby but i didn't think they were much good going into the race class wise...
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My opinion harry, is that the beaten Derby horses rarely do even when we get a good winner, at least not in the immediate future, with only a few notable exceptions. That doesn't detract from the race though as for me, betting interests aside, it's about finding a potential 3yo middle distance champion, it's not really a championship event in itself and isn't meant to be.
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agree sandown.
really stupid tactics by aob. looking at what HH did he actually ran a blinder to not be last. he is the other horse other than the winner to take huge credit from this. would be a really interesting battle if they met again in a smaller field and aob tried proper racing tactics. |
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Personally dont think Han Holbein is of G1 class, not in the same league as the winner.
Prob wants slower ground as well. He did set very strong factions early, to fast, but thats what he was used for on the day, which says even more about him not being a G1 horse in AOB eyes. Think the runner-up wants a bit more ease & a better track to run round. 3rd looks a soild 1m4f horse but short at this level, could well turn out a Leger type in time. Giovanni C given time, a better galloping track, less fast ground gd/gs, could well reverse places with the 2nd & 3rd in Ire, if they meet up again. Think Elm Park wants softish ground & a flat galloping track & needs to settle, or he will achieve nothing. |
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Most welcome Howellsy, congratulations on improving your much maligned Epsom Derby record.
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It was a great Derby, would hope Jack will go close too winning the Irish, the 3rd and (4th) both capable of going close in the leger, the turn of foot was more than impressive, he quickened up 6.4 notches from 3f out, I do think he is made for 12f and I would be more cautious than many beefing him up for 10f events, but yes the figures for 10f excellent and he may well make his mark. Zawrak would have been of more interest in those 10f events but he is out for the season , hope he makes a good recovery, perhaps for a wet Autumn?
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dunno about great derby....time usually tells.
one negative is HH isnt a G1 horse and should have finished stone cold last running the way he did on unsuitable ground. |