Sussex Stakes

40/1 he might be worth a shot becuase you just never know in this game, though, for me, Kingman was just asked to quicken to early at Newmarket. That's what got him beat. If he does have an off day however then WC has Toronado to beat too. It might be worth backing him eachway now as I think one or two of these are likely to drop out, meaning 7 runners is possible.

I would love it if somehow Integral managed to pinch second, but I think she is going to have her work cut out conceding weight to the 3yo colts. They're well ahead of Rizeena in my opinion. Then there is Toronado aswell.

reminds me of the Frankel/Canford Cliffs match - doesn't matter what the Hannon stable try the Abdullah colt will win

KINGMAN'S clash with Toronado in Wednesday's Qipco Sussex Stakes was dependent on the state of the going on Sunday night as trainer John Gosden paid a visit to Goodwood to make a first-hand inspection of the track.

Gosden was due to walk the course and pass on his verdict to Khalid Abdullah's racing manager Teddy Grimthorpe to help enable the owner/breeder to make a decision on whether to sanction the latest 'Duel on the Downs' against Toronado, or wait for the Prix Jacques le Marois at Deauville on August 17.

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Sussex Stakes card
Declarations for the Group 1 showpiece, for which Kingman was on Sunday installed 4-6 favourite by Paddy Power, with last year's winner Toronado 13-8, have to be made by 10am on Monday.
Grimthorpe said: "The prince wants to have all the information to make a decision where to run. It won't be a case of him being declared in the morning and left in to see what the weather does. It will be one of the two. We'll declare or we won't. We just want to be sure."

The going at Goodwood on Sunday was good, good to firm in places on the round course, and with rain forecast on Monday afternoon clerk of the course Seamus Buckley had yet to decide whether the track required watering.

"We've had no rain today, though it has been quite overcast," said Buckley. "There is a forecast for rain after lunch tomorrow. It might hit us or might miss us. We are leaving the going as it is and holding back on watering to review the situation tomorrow."

Surprised that nobody has mentioned the favs action,hes a heavy topped horse,will he like it racing downhill?
Last years fav,with his high straight head carriage could possibly explain why he got beat.I must look again at the Guineas,and see how Kingman Fared going into the dip.

I think Kingman does stay the mile well enough against fellow three year olds , but most people think  four year old Toronado is the one to beat . I will put my cards on the table and say  my feeling is that  Toronado will collar him close to the finish,   with a couple of lengths back to the third . This supposition is dependent on a really  healthy pace from the outset
if they dawdle from early on then Kingman who is an entirely genuine Horse  will win again and his  supporters  can collect  their money  GL

Don't think Kingman can be beaten with  soft lead  tactics  the Hanonos tried that in ireland and  in the SJP , if Toronado  tries to outsprint  Kingman  using those tactics  he will not manage it imo,   Kingman would probably  outpace Frankel himself  in a three furlong sprint , they have to engineer a hot pace from  the outset , Leitir moor did it right on saturday  unfortunately  Trading Leather  could not  capitalize , have been a fan of Toronado for  a long time  but in no way anti Kingman  who is one heck of an animal .

Well a bit of a no contest for me,my reason is simply that Gosden told us early season that Kingman wanted fast ground,he was unsure about running him on soft ground,well so far he as not had firm ground,and unless the skies open I can't see what can possibly beat him? For me the only interest is watching to see if he can improve his rating,so a significant beating of Toronado will do the trick,if that rival runs to form? I was reading the Simon rowlands article for Timeform , posted below.

www.timeform.com/Racing/Articles/Sussex_Stakes_Why_Timeform_are_siding_with_Kingman 


If I could pick a hole in his form it would be his last race,it is not working out,but not bad either,so a watching brief for me ,but some excitement that it may be possible for him to increase his rating significantly?.

Maybe Appleby feels he needs the mile, not 7f.

MJ, what do you mean his form this year is on Soft ground?

GF ground was not the reason why he was beaten in the Guineas. They are learning about the horse all the time, as you would expect for a lightly raced 3yo, and the jockey simply kicked for home to soon at HQ, leaving NOT to pick up the pieces. Stamina & fast ground are of no issues for Kingman. Goodwood could be as he is untried there. That's about it. IMO.

The 8lbs allowance is another wfa allowance that is far too generous, imo. Maybe it averages out over all levels of racing but at the top end it makes it difficult for a Gp1 4yo to beat a genuine Gp1 3yo. I don't see the average difference being more than 5lbs, so the 3yos have almost a length advantage in a truly run race.

I always thought Toronado was a bit overrated last year due to his form revolving around Dawn Approach, who in my view was never quite as good after the Guineas. There was the possibility he could've made significant improvement as a 4yo but I didn't see a great deal in the Queen Anne. He was the best horse there but I made it only moderate form, exactly the same level as put up by Declaration of War the previous year and I didn't see any reason why he might be better than the bare form.

Up to now I still don't go along with the view that Kingman is a superstar, even though he can obviously quicken impressively off a slow/ordinary pace. Nevertheless he's still a very good horse and more than good enough to add this race to his tally. I agree with A_T that it doesn't matter what plan Hannon and Hughes try to execute. If they go slow Kingman should be able to outsprint them. If they go a fast pace then Kingman can still get from A (the starting stalls) to B (the winning post) quicker than Toronado can. On all known form I have Kingman with a 3lbs advantage, that is apart from his wfa allowance! So effectively he has a huge 11lbs in hand for me. The faster they go the more that weight advantage will tell. Not that I would have much confidence either way but I would opt for the slower pace in front and try to get first run. The weight will matter less, they can hope Doyle overdoes the waiting tactics and horses can sometimes surprise you how fast they can sprint for a short period on fast ground. If this is a truly run race then there can only be one outcome if Kingman runs to form.

For all I said about War Command not being top class last year, I actually think if he put in his best form from last year he could just about edge out Toronado for (a well held) 2nd on these terms if it's a truly run race. You could take the view he wasn't quite ready for the Guineas, although on those early gallops we saw most people seemed to think he was more forward than Australia. The SJP was run slow early and although it didn't prove anything it wasn't a bad run in the circumstances. You could also say the Eclipse was too far for him. Personally I'm not sure if he's still capable of his best so I won't be backing him to place but I can see why some would at the odds.

The Guineas was run at a good gallop, do you believe Toronado would've finished ahead of Kingman giving him 8lbs?

Goodwood traditionally a good track for pacey sorts.

Sintonian,you will have to forgive my misquotes,just trying to point out the facts in a sarcastic fashion,doggy legs etc!

last years 3yr olds were very unconvincing,it would be apocalyptic,if kingman not good enough,but Johnny g put some question marks about the ground at the season start.

I was hoping that Integral would run, although I can see why they haven't taken Kingman on under these terms and I wouldn't have run her either. For betting purposes I was hoping she'd run because I'm confident she's now a better miler than Toronado and I was looking forward to laying Toronado for the place. Maybe there will be another opportunity later in the season.

Your the form guru, Brig.

Sint, yes I've been looking for some news but not seen anything. I rated her Ascot win 3lbs better than Toronado's Queen Anne, plus she obviously gets the 3lb allowance on top of that. I don't think her Falmouth Stakes win would've taken much out of her as it was slowly run on the soft ground.