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Sussex Stakes
Sussex Stakes
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Replies: 255
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Oh, so that interloper Dave is elbowing his way in now is he , well good luck to him
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Tough card today. First two Group races have the right favourites but no value there for me. The King George Stakes looks another whoever's on a going day sprint. I'm laying Muteela in the Oak Tree Stakes as she's too short, imo. Think she'll need to improve again here, she's already had a couple of hard finishes and there are a few here who can beat her if on form.
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The only thing I like about Muteela is that she will front run and drops back 1f from her last run which will suit her perfectly imo. But like you say she is just too short.
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Yeah, would be a concern if the other jockeys are passive and let Fanning do what he wants in front (which they often do). Hopefully he will be pressed into setting a decent pace.
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PP make Integral 8/11, 9/4 Miss France, 7/1 + for the other two.
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I had a bet this morning on J Wonder at around 7s. Must have a blinding chance.
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Yes, brigust, she's one of a few I think can win on a going day and looks fair value.
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I think so Fig. I will be doing my usual late in running lay off at around 6/4. I don't mind giving a bit back to cover being robbed late on.
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THE GOLD CHEONGSAM is rated a few pounds below the best of these but is a year older and comes her fresh so may well have a say in it , sometimes think the most unreliable ratings are nearly always found in races confined to fillies , see what happens , also like J wonder .
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Mac, I have her a couple of pounds higher than the fav on these terms on her best form.
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yes Fig, can believe you have, bit of a puzzle thus one.
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Phew, well done brigust, nice pick.
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Thanks. I think you thought it was a bet anyway.
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Well done Brig and fig, power packed JF riding well, TGC ran moderately , no way good enough , usually back two or three in a race to make a little profit so small bet on the winner luckily .
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Nothing wrong with that Mac, Like Fig (well done with the lay) I couldn't see the favourite winning and there was really nothing else left. Thanks by the way. Very good day.
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Well done Brig, even a blind pig finds the odd acorn.
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Thanks Felt. I know you care really. That's drinks all round on me
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I`ll have a glass of wine thankyou.
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Very disappointing run from Integral. Just thankful that the race cut up and she was too short to back. The ground was no softer than she handled at Newmarket last time. There wasn't much pace on but that wasn't an excuse, as she didn't expend too much energy early but just didn't finish her race. Maybe she just didn't travel over well but there was nothing encouraging about that performance and she just looked like a filly that's peaked.
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Was disappointing. Prepared to forgive her one run though as she was hardly beaten far and back on home soil it could be a different ball game.
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Yes, possibly, sint. Connections appeared confident about her chances so you'd assume she'd been showing the right signs since last time. Have to see if they find a reason and where they aim next. I just didn't like the way she finished her race, or didn't finish it, with conditions not enough of an excuse.
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Yep, I though a slow pace would suit her the best but she got outspeeded by both the front two. On verdicts with Esoterique it is 2:1 in Eso's favour but one of those wins was a short-head when Integral was having her first run of the season. There is not much between them despite Eso looking quite authorative yesterday. That said, I would not bet against her next time if they face each other in the Sun Chariot or the Matron Stakes.
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Andre Fabre believe Esoterique deserves a bit more respect after her easy victory in the Prix Rothschild at Deauville on Sunday.
The four-year-old beat Sir Michael Stoute's Integral for the second time this season, having already gained a narrow verdict over Cheveley Park Stud's classy filly in the Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket. Esoterique had disappointed behind Integral in the Duke of Cambridge Stakes at Royal Ascot but bounced back to her best showing a smart turn of foot to beat her stablemate and 1000 Guineas winner Miss France. "She had a bad tactical race at Ascot last time. She made the running and that is totally against her style," said Fabre, whose charge could potentially cross swords with Kingman in the Prix Jacques le Marois on August 17. "She has raced against Integral three times now and that is the second time she has beaten her so I think she deserves respect. She had an interrupted preparation for Ascot. "Curiously the handicapper had her rated 1lb above Miss France before the race and that is exactly how it turned out, so for once the handicapper got it right. "Esoterique has a very good turn of foot and Miss France didn't really have an excuse. In terms of the race, everything went right for her. "Esoterique will now go for the Jacques le Marois at Deauville, while Miss France will wait for September. I've entered both of them in the Sun Chariot this morning so they might come over to England for that." |
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Chris Richardson, managing director for Integral's owners Cheveley Park Stud, said: "She's finished third in a Group One, so you can't be too disappointed.
"It wasn't what we were expecting, but those four-runner races can do that to you. It was a tactical affair, they split into two groups and it was all a bit of a muddle. "Ryan (Moore) said we should just put a line through it, so we'll move on and hopefully head for the Sun Chariot." |
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Can't blame Fabre for talking up his horse but Integral just wasn't the same filly yesterday. She hung left when asked to quicken and her kick from the 2f to the 1f pole just wasn't there like it had been in her previous two races. I can't go along with the excuse that it was the run of the race to blame.
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Kingman goes for the Prix Jacques le Marois next in Deauville. You'd have to worry that by the time we get to the QEII in October he'll be feeling the effects of a long season and taking on fresher horses. He is superior to every other miler but depending on the opposition on the day he might be worth opposing. It will be his 7th race, and 6th at Group 1 level.
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*this year
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Sint, one thing in his favour is that his last 3 races have been run at a slow early pace, sprinting the last couple of furlongs shouldn't have taken as much out of him as if he's been involved in fast run races. So he's had luck on his side to enable him to cope with a long season. We'll have to see what happens in France but he may get the same scenario there. For all the talk about his fast sectionals and there's no doubt that with his run style he's exciting to watch, performance wise I still don't rate him any higher than a typical Gp1 miler, very similar to Canford Cliffs, Toronado and many others. He may improve again but I'd like to take him on as I don't think he's quite the superstar he's been made out to be, the trouble is I haven't see anything worth opposing him with.
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*as if he'd
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For the record, I haven't recorded a pace profile anything like the Sussex for a G1 mile race. Even G1 5f races are not run like that race was. There might have been a G1 race run like that at some time in the past but off the top of my head I can't think of one.It was like a piece of interval training.Honestly, I don't know what to expect re. his next race as there's no precedent. Maybe it was harder than it looked because they reached very fast speeds.
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Penultimate furlong in mph Kingman 44.0, Toronado 43.1 Darwin 42.98
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Yes, I'm inclined to think fast overall time races take more out of horses than crawl/sprints, but you never know. I think the splits have to be put into context, they all ran very fast splits and they're all not that good, although Kingman obviously was fastest, but I can't remember the ground at Goodwood under Buckley being as fast as it was this year, plus they went slower early than for any Gp1 mile race I can remember, the final time wasn't even worth a rating on my scale. Sometimes you can get a visual impression of a horse having a hard race, however people will have different perceptions. For me, even though Kingman had to be really asked a question I didn't get the impression he was anything like all out. It wasn't just a case of a rider like Hughes sitting up/taking a pull just before the line giving the impression a horse won easier than it had, the horse looked very comfortable to my eyes, although you still don't know what minor undetected niggles a horse may experience after any race.
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yes, heard that report 2day about Kingman poss going to run again in France this wkend.
He does seem to be thriving with his racing & did not take to much out of himself a G/wood in that 3f sprint. Strike while the iron is hot I say. Sure there could be a chance that he cries enough come Champions day (sint) lets hope that's not the case & he has 2months to freshen him up for it after this next race in France. |
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He'll be taking on Olympic Glory so at least there'll be some good opposition.
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Agree about Kingmans last run possibly not taking so much out of him.
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At least the main opposition will be ridden by Frankie and not Hughsie. Three times he has ridden against Kingman and three times he has crawled. Lets hope Frankie gives him a proper race but this is over a flat 7.95 furlongs so it should suit Kingman right down to the ground. Or perhaps he should save it until Ascot. We will see.
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1/3 isn't the kind of price that would interest me but in no way do I think it overestimates Kingman's chance. I have him with 8lbs in hand of the field on these wfa terms. I just can't envisage any of them improving enough to bridge the gap. We know Kingman handles soft ground so basically it's all about whether Kingman runs his race or not.
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I couldn't agree more Figgis. You know my thoughts so I don't have to repeat them. I just hope Frankie seizes the opportunity and makes it a proper test.
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Hope so, only a fast run race will see the full benefit of that 8lbs advantage.
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I have no problem with that. I just cannot see any other way of 'trying' to beat him. No bet for me though.
What did you think about Magician? |