Horse Antepost
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THE OAKS (2014)
THE OAKS (2014)
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Why does nobody, apart from mac99, give Amazing Maria a mention? Is it simply down to the less than ideal prep or do people think she's not good enough? I'd be surprised if anybody could rate her much lower than what we've seen this year.
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She's not run since August last year Figgis and missed the Guineas. Hard to know what to expect.
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think her stable has struggled for winners
aswell,this season,Figgis. |
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Yes but all that considered her price has to be too big, as the fillies at the head of the market look much of a muchness, barring the possibility of one improving.
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Figgis/The Collector
The reason I don't have either Marvellous or Amazing Maria on my list is because I very much doubt that either will stay the trip. In my experience horses often get their stamina from their mothers side and I just can't see either of these two horses staying the trip. As ever just an opinion and breeding isn't an exact science as Rule of Law showed in winning the St Leger. Also I never like it when fillies jump up in distance from a mile to a mile and a half for the Oaks - just personal preference for a horse to have run over 10 furlongs beforehand, I just like it from a conditioning aspect given it's a tough race for a 3 yr old. Personally I think Marvellous is a place lay at her current odds. I think her last run was average on the clock and I seriously question whether she will get the trip. When Was won the Oaks arguably with similarish stamina doubts (more stoutly bred by her sire) she was a 20/1 chance so the risk was worth the reward (I didn't back her just making that point). Obviously Marvellous is going to be shorter as she won the Irish 1000 guineas but is she really a 3/1 chance? Not for me. |
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Swagger, yes fair enough, I have no idea if she'll get the trip. Ed Dunlop thinks she'll get 10f but doesn't know about 12f. As I have no racecourse evidence of what form she's in this year I honestly wouldn't be surprised if she finished first or last, but as she still tops my ratings here I couldn't let her go unbacked at those prices.
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Hopefully the Marvellous lay will cover the stake
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Amazing Maria's dam won over 6f and she's related to sprinters in the US, so doubtful for 12f on that side of it. Would quite like her chances in the Coronation at Ascot though.
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i'd be really concerned about the non prep for amazing maria...i have to say i had her down for this at the end of last season but lack of a prep run, the ground being on the slower side and the trainers horses having the plague are off putting...she could surprise a few but with the trainer how he is at present and lack of a run a concern, she couldn't be backed with any confidence as much as i like her as an individual
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THE Investec Oaks will, in all likelihood, be run on ground described as good - that was the prediction by clerk of the course Andrew Cooper on the eve of the fillies' Classic.
RELATED LINKS Oaks card Epsom Friday card After a testing and wet fortnight Cooper enjoyed a dry final day of preparation for the biggest two days of the year for the track and is confident he has the track in the best possible condition. "We had a further 2mm of rain overnight on top of 6mm on Wednesday, so I have left the going as good, good to soft in places for now as the GoingStick reading of 7.5," he said. "Today has been a dry, warm and breezy day and the track is certainly moving towards good," said Cooper, who was out inspecting the track. "If it stays dry, which we expect it to, then there is every chance the description will be changed to good tomorrow. There is the potential for the odd shower, but they are not expected to reach the course until after racing." From the one mile marker the rails will be dolled out up to 6 yards to protect fresh ground for Derby day, adding 17 yards to race distances. |
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Sint, just reading the friday pw and tom has put up Tarfasha
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Record of first three finishers from the 1000 Guineas running in the Oaks since 2000:
Year 1000 Pos Oaks Pos sp horse trainer jockey 2000 3 4 9/2 Petrushka Sir Michael Stoute Kieren Fallon 2002 2 10 20/1 Snowfire John Dunlop Pat Eddery 2002 1 1 100/30 Kazzia Saeed bin Suroor Frankie Dettori 2004 2 6 3/1 Sundrop Saeed bin Suroor Kerrin McEvoy 2005 1 4 11/4 Virginia Waters A P O'Brien Kieren Fallon 2006 1 4 5/1 Speciosa Pam Sly Micky Fenton 2007 3 6 8/1 Simply Perfect Jeremy Noseda Johnny Murtagh 2011 1 4 9/4 Blue Bunting Mahmood Al Zarooni Frankie Dettori 2012 3 5 100/30 Maybe A P O'Brien Joseph O'Brien 2013 3 4 5/2 Moth A P O'Brien Joseph O'Brien |
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Record of first three finishers from the Irish 1000 Guineas running in the Oaks since 2000:
Year 1000 Pos Oaks Pos sp horse name trainer name jockey name 2001 1 1 3/1 Imagine A P O'Brien Mick Kinane 2002 2 2 15/2 Quarter Moon A P O'Brien Mick Kinane 2002 3 4 16/1 Starbourne A P O'Brien Johnny Murtagh 2003 1 2 100/30 Yesterday A P O'Brien Mick Kinane 2007 3 2 20/1 Peeping Fawn A P O'Brien Martin Dwyer 2009 3 7 8/1 Oh Goodness Me J S Bolger Kevin Manning 2011 1 5 5/1 Misty For Me A P O'Brien Seamie Heffernan |
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Ryan Moore:
I suppose that the obvious place to start when assessing the Oaks is the favourite Marvellous, who I rode to win the Irish 1,000 Guineas last month. And, I'll be straight up, I think that she is the likely winner, though you will need plenty of luck in running in such a big field. The only doubt - and it is not a doubt that I have heard mentioned at all in the run-up to tomorrow's race, but it's a very real one all the same - is whether this race will come too soon for her after that win at the Curragh. Yes, she won by three lengths in the end. But I had to give her a fair ride from some way out to get her home in front, and you never have an easy race in a big race whatever the winning distance. It always takes something out of them, however visually impressive they are. But, apart from that concern - and if anyone is going to sweeten them up and bring them back in peak form after such a short turnaround it is Aidan, as he has proved time and again - I have to say that she has a lot going for her. I went into the race at the Curragh thinking that she had a chance but in all probability believing I was a riding a potential Oaks horse, rather than one who would excel over the mile. And it certainly seemed that way for much of the race, before she picked up for me in the straight and went on to win well. I know that Timeform have her well clear on ratings here - some 6lb I think - but I personally wouldn't too read too much into that. On paper it looks strong form, as she beat the Newmarket runner-up Lightning Thunder by three lengths, but I don't think the English 1,000 Guineas was strong form at all, and a lot of these fillies will improve more than 6lb now stepped up in trip. I would place more emphasis on the fact that the extra distance should be the making of this Galileo filly. She ran right through the line at the Curragh and I had trouble pulling her up. In fact, she was still going at the boards about a furlong or so after the line. and when I turned round all the rest of the other horses were in the paddock. If she is fresh and well, she will take all the beating. And I think she could be even better on decent ground, too. A lot of people will see her draw in two as a negative, but it doesn't concern me at all.... |
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5 of the last 6 Oaks winners had no more than 3 career runs prior to Epsom. This time around?
Madame Chiang (2) Marsh Daisy (3) Marvellous (3) Momentous (2) Taghrooda (2) |
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Timeform have her 6lbs clear? I suppose I can understand it if they think Lightning Thunder ran somewhere near her Guineas form (I don't), but I really don't understand how anybody could rate her higher than the opposition on the clock.
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.... Marvellous only 8lbs clear of anything that's run this year (5lbs in hand of Amazing Maria) on my clock which is right at least twice a day
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Lets hope he is right Stevie!
My only bet in the race is Tarfasha at 16/1 + and I took some 7/1 last night. This morning I have put on Win/saver double with Taghrooda 4/1 and Australia 13/8 which pays 12/1. Good luck all! |
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that does look a decent double now sint especially when compared with both their prices a few weeks ago, both those 2 have reached what I consider reasonable prices now.
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My top 5 Oaks runners according to my ratings are:-
Marsh Daisy 87 Anipa 83 Palace 82 Marvellous 81 Ihtimal 81 |
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On Gosden horse 5-1 Sid James too big?
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can't have Taghrooda, rated her last run as a slow 71 ... even allowing for other horses in the Pretty Polly running a varied 6-8 lengths slower than their best time figure that would only put Taghrooda on a maximum of 79 on my ratings
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yes slow early on in the pretty polly, I have sectionals boosting up her a figure a fair amount but still not enough. Though clearly she could be capable of producing a big figure over 12f in a truly run race but it's hard to say. She could just be a G3 filly thats beaten a load of rubbish so far. Today we'll find out.
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just looking at the beaten fillies in the pretty polly, 4 have run since and been beaten a combined total of 75l in their next start.
With no decent figures to go on it's purely down to visual impressions and expectations based on breeding. |
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Yes, hence only including her in double with another hype horse Australia. The form of the Pretty Polly could not be any more rancid.
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Tarfasha has been the horse for money, smashed into since the day of the race markets opened up on here and the likely favorite at the moment. Those that backed Taghrooda early on would struggle to believe that nearly 5/1 would be available on the day compared to their AP prices.
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She was 7/4 at one stage. Just goes to show what hype can do to a horses price!
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Like the 2 Hamdan fillies in the Big 1.
Ground has dried out for them, a plus in my book. Granted some luck in running i can see them fight out the finnish 2day (i hope  )Gd luck all  |
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Not hype Sint. It's just that nobody knew how the form would turn out.
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Madame Chiang for me.
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Well Taghrooda backers.
Happy with the result. Tarhasha places and now have a 12/1 bet on Australia for tomorrow.  |
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wd Tagroodha backers, won well.
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* well done
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take any insurance with the double Stevie?
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I honestly wouldn't be surprised if she finished first or last
Well I was half right with Amazing Maria  but at least the Marvellous lay was right. Dodged a bullet not laying Taghrooda but would never have laid her at the odds she went off. Well done winners. |
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I am happy I backed it today and in one of my ante post yankee bets, with Kingman (lost), Miss France and Australia.
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no sint, though was tempted by a single on tagroodha at the price as she was the one I was most afraid of, but couldn't really justify it on my figures. but my gut instinct was she was good. I did lay her at just over 2/1 a while back but traded out of that and lost a small amount on race overall
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YES
NICE TOUCH Very smart filly indeed, had them covered from home turn, travelled like a dream |
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Has Sea The Stars taken over as the number one sire? Coolmore wish they had him?
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I was doing all right with my place lays until Volume stuck her head in. Bad girl.
My bet on Madame Chiang ... what a stupid I am. |