Horse Antepost
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 263 comments are related to the topic:
THE OAKS (2014)
THE OAKS (2014)
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 263
|
By:
what do you mean thornton? ... I have a spreadsheet with all runs and can alter criteria such as going/ field size/ s.p's etc and alter just wins to any position finished
|
|
By:
Ok so from stall 2 there was "expected" to be 6.5 winners and there has been 2. Hardly worrying.
I do not buy it myself. Secret Gesture was in the perfect pozzy last year from stall 1 and got out run by a freak performance. Take Talent out the race and she has won the Oaks. Each to their own. I dont take too much notice to the draw on this sort of track/ distance. Giants Causeway was drawn in the carpark and nearly won the breeders Cup. |
|
By:
Can't say this years race interests me very much and an upset looks quite possible. So for the sake of having a bet I'm on Momentus @ 80.
|
|
By:
So rather than just expected wins and actual wins, using expected number of rivals beat and actual number of rivals beaten.
Eg, If a horse is evens it has 50% chance of victory but using the statistics for win only mean that if it finished 2nd it would be have the same effect on the table as if it came last. Modelling using % of runners beaten would normalise this and take into account the number of rivals it was expected to beat and the number of rivals it actually beat. It's basically a more thorough method than using win only. I don't want to inundate the thread with stats though as it has been a very good and informative thread on the race imo! |
|
By:
I don't see how that would be any more informative, a bad draw means that a horse has to use up some of its speed to hold a position which most of the time only comes into play close to home ... i.e. weakening slightly more than it would otherwise have done and converts a would be win into a probable second and not completely collapsing to a midfield finishing position. There will be times when a horse gets away with it like Oath in 1999 but in the long term it has paid to discount stalls 1 and 2, a horse will win from 1 or 2 again, maybe this Friday, but I wouldn't want to chance it.
|
|
By:
could possibly be something in those draw stats, but think Marvellous has enough in hand on time figures that it won't matter where she is drawn.
Will still win comfortably if she stays and the race not come too quick |
|
By:
@Grendel
For example if there have been no winners but 40 horses came second beaten less than a length would it still be a bad draw in your view? The win stats would say yes but it would probably just be an anomaly. |
|
By:
In the past twenty five runnings of the race, only one horse, Eswarah in 2005, has won from stall two, and that was in a field of twelve runners. During this period, four horses that were drawn two, were placed - all finishing third. Two of those were in seven runner fields. In the 2013 renewal, Joseph O'Brien was drawn 2 on Moth; sent off 5/2 favourite he finished fourth. As is the case with Marvellous, there was suspect stamina on the dam side.
|
|
By:
@ thornton reed
if 40/40 horses came off worst of those finishing 1st or second then they are finishing weakly which you could argue is as a result of using too much earlier in the race, e.g. having to use up more energy than its rivals to go from standing still to getting up to running speed |
|
By:
Of those that have run this year I have only 2lbs between five runners, Ihtimal 1lb ahead of Tarfasha and Taghrooda, with Marvellous and Marsh Daisy a further 1lb behind. None of them have run to the usual standard I look for and with only 2lbs covering those 5 fillies none appeal as a bet. Possibly one will improve more than the others for the step up in trip but I have no idea which one. My intention was to oppose Taghrooda purely because of poor value, but as Marvellous has become the new favourite I will be opposing her instead. I don't know why people have rated her Irish Guineas highly as in my view it was a very moderate overall time for the race, she was being pushed to keep pace for most of the way and only appeared to win easily as the race collapsed. Even though she has proved herself on soft ground I wouldn't be tempted to back her as of those 5 runners I feel she is the least likely to improve and at the price I'll be laying her.
The filly who marginally tops my figures is Amazing Maria, I have no proof of what kind of form she's in this year, I don't know if she'll stay the trip or act on the ground if it turns soft, and her lack of a prep run is obviously not ideal, but at the price I have to have a few quid on her. |
|
By:
Glad 2 see Taghrooda get a fair draw in stall (9) & hope the ground in no slower than gd come Fri, like her chances myself. Rate the other Hamdan filly the main danger in my book, again a filly who would want the ground gd or faster to show her best.
Already backed Tag ante-p at 4s & granted gd ground or better on Oaks day, will play on her again (expect 4s the field on Fri morn) with a saver on the other Hamdan filly Tarfasha. No more rain PLEASE.  |
|
By:
Looking at those horses drawn 2 in the Oaks since 2000, they all finished where they should have done imo bar The Fugue who was given a poor ride by Buick.
Midday beaten a head by Sariska, but can't think that any of them were beaten by the draw YEAR pos sp horse trainer jockey 2000 10 33/1 Clog Dance B W Hills John Reid 2001 12 20/1 Candice Ed Dunlop T Quinn 2002 12 33/1 Maryinsky A P O'Brien Richard Hughes 2003 7 16/1 Santa Sophia John Dunlop Pat Eddery 2004 3 100/30 Punctilious Saeed bin Suroor Frankie Dettori 2005 1 11/4 Eswarah Michael Jarvis Richard Hills 2006 9 33/1 Prowess B W Hills Michael Hills 2007 12 66/1 Nell Gwyn A P O'Brien Neil Callan 2008 11 40/1 Miracle Seeker Clive Cox Adam Kirby 2009 2 5/1 Midday Sir Henry Cecil Tom Queally 2010 3 13/2 Rumoush Marcus Tregoning Richard Hills 2011 3 25/1 Izzi Top John Gosden William Buick 2012 3 11/4 The Fugue John Gosden William Buick 2013 4 5/2 Moth A P O'Brien Joseph O'Brien |
|
By:
Secret Gesture was stall 1 last year and was runner up
Moth was stall 2 and 3rd |
|
By:
Stalls 1 and 2 are a disaster over Epsom 12f.
|
|
By:
Moth 4th sorry.!
|
|
By:
I'd add that the draw for Marvellous isn't a factor at all in me laying her, I have never considered the draw when betting in the Derby or Oaks, maybe I'm wrong to ignore it but results have never persuaded me that it needs to be considered.
|
|
By:
I've got Marvellous at 7/1 and am concerned about draw.
Will be having ews on Honor Bound at 25-1 and Regardez at 50-1. |
|
By:
Dont think stall 1&2 would be a big prob if your on a horse who likes to go forward & sit handy, as long as you brake well from the gates.
|
|
By:
pointing out horses finishing second or third as some sort of indication that there is no draw bias is futile, if back in 2007 you'd looked at the 7 years from 2000-2006 you'd have seen from 98 horses drawn 1 or 2 that 1 horse won and 15 horses finished either 2nd or third and if you'd dismissed the draw bias on the basis of the placed horses you would have spent the next seven years (2007-2013) with 82 horses running from stalls 1 or 2 and 1 win and 15 placed efforts between them and betting regardless of this stat
|
|
By:
aiden o'brien has habbit of using some of his best horses to set pace in classics.Do you think dazzling who looks a miler is in to set a strong pace for his fav marvellous
|
|
By:
Can't believe some punters think there is no draw bias. Yes, a load of horses have placed, but the stalls 1 and 2 HAVE been enough to prevent a horse from actually winning. Early on in the race the jockey is presented with a tactical dilema as referred to in Ralph Beckett's blog I posted earlier. It is worth considering if you are taking short prices.
|
|
By:
Yes, a load of horses have placed, but the stalls 1 and 2 HAVE been enough to prevent a horse from actually winning.
sint, which horses drawn 1 or 2 since 2000 do you think should have won but were beaten by the draw? Drawn 2, can only see the The Fugue, but that was jockey error (on several occasions Buick took the wrong option in the race, not just when he decided to rein back and squeeze himself out having broken well from the stalls) |
|
By:
pedrobob, it's not only the Oaks mate ... it's every 1m4f race with double figure field sizes over the C/D going back many many years ... when 64 horses start in single figure odds over 14 years and only 2 are succesfull of the 21 that manage to place then something has to be significant about that and not just a result of chance. You only have to look at how the first couple of furlongs are run to see why it's significant with a right bend after 2 furlongs of an uphill start.
|
|
By:
The Fugue is one for certain. Why do you think the errors came about Pedro? Bad draws force the jockey to make pressurised decisions. He may have got it wrong but that's the dilema they face.
Talent beat Secret Gesture 3.75 lengths, but the trainer is adamant it would have been closer but for the draw. Even today he is saying he is glad his two runners this year have outside draws. How do you explain a high percentage of winners coming from higher numbers? It's not a small sample or a short period of time. |
|
By:
Was at HQ when Taghrooda watered the track on Guineas day and was very impressed with her both in the preliminaries and on the track. Not to bothered about the ease in the ground and classically bred. Think she'll take care of this lot and she certainly wasn't stopping last time out at the business end.
|
|
By:
I am on Madame Chiang and couldn't care less where she is drawn. She is going to be held up so you take it on board that you need a bit of luck. However the ground and stamina will play in to her hands and I see her staying on past a lot of tired horses late on. I'm sure with so many runners they will go off very fast!
|
|
By:
Secret Gesture was beaten by a better horse. Talent came into the straight full of running. The jockey's only problem was holding her back. Then she a bit trouble in running before she got a clear run.
|
|
By:
Looks like the ground is going to be what Dermot Weld wants for Tarfasha, even though she has won on yielding-soft anyway.
Taghrooda over 4/1 on here which is more reasonable. |
|
By:
It's funny reading the blog from Ralph as watching the race it appears she is never pushed to run faster than she wants. She broke well, jim puts her in a nice position and settles into the bridle.
You have to look at where a horse wants to be in a race. How she/he needs to be ridden. If they need to be held up then I can not see the draw having a huge affect. If they need to be handy then they have to break well. If they can break well then being on the outside around the first bend will give you the rail for the remainder of the race. Any way this is about Marvellous being in trap 2. Surely she will be held up, so will being drawn 2 be a massive problem for her? People were put off Treve in last years Arc because she could not win from her draw. |
|
By:
a hold up horse will have a far better chance of winning if drawn mid to high, a quick query on raceform interactive shows that in races over the C/D with 12 or more runners since 2006 those drawn 1-5 with "held up" in their comments in running there were 58 qualifiers (not allowing for non runners) and only 2 winners and a £40 loss to £1 level stakes (both on the same day, bureaucrat and new approach 2008 derby day), a similar search for those drawn 6 and above shows 13 winners from 127 qualifiers and a level stakes profit of £44.50. With regards to Treve, the high draws are only disadvantaged on fast ground.
|
|
By:
Based on various factors such as breeding, potential, form and visual impression I think the Oaks is between 4 horses: -
Taghrooda Tarfasha Marsh Daisy Inchila Difficult to split the Maktoum pair, especially as they are so well bred but I will just side with Taghrooda as she had the visual wow factor about her win in the Pretty Polly even though the form has been seriously let down since. The extra 2 furlongs will surely see her put in a seriously strong performance and I think she will be hard to beat. Marsh Daisy has been underestimated in the market, I think she should be nearer the 8/1 mark and I think she has strong ew claims. I think Inchila has place chances at a big price. Good luck all. |
|
By:
How can you possibly leave out Marvellous from that list?
Breeding - by Galileo Potential and Form - Classic winner already Visual Impression - watch the video last month |
|
By:
Marvellous may be by Galileo (so was Frankel)but there are stamina doubts on her dam side
|
|
By:
Weak looking Irish Guineas run on terrible ground. Not for me at 3/1!!
|
|
By:
Throw in the fact she has stall 2 and JOB takes over from Ryan Moore. Her odds have little appeal imo.
|
|
By:
I'm quite pleased with the weather f/c and the ground and draw for Tarfasha. Also the only horse to have run from that Naas race since was Euphrasia and she ran a cracker behind Noble Mission.
|
|
By:
Feeling pretty chipper here, Stevie. I think she is going to go very close. Decent ante-post prices snaffled for a change!
 |
|
By:
A couple of firms are going 4 places, PP and 3.65.
|
|
By:
Of the others I think Taghrooda is the one I'm most afrad of as she is the could be anything horse and she's bred to be an oaks filly and her profile is the one I'm most drawn too but the price is not big enough for me.
Marvellous is the form horse on her Irish guineas run but I'm not sure if she was as good as that form makes her look as it was a strong pace in testing ground and she just seemed the one most suited to it and draw not good. Ihtimal is a really likable filly who always seems to give her best and she has a decent chance. Marsh Daisy ans Madame Chiang could have done with more rain to bring their stamina into play and I think they may drift now. Possibles at bigger prices for me would be Volume who won in game fashion last time and the dam is related to Vertical Speed who was runner up to Silver Patriach in the leger. Palace could also step up on what she's done now facing better ground and you have to respect O'brien/moore combination. |
|
By:
So you would have Inchila on a short list and not Marvellous...each to their own I suppose
|