Horse Antepost
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THE OAKS (2014)
THE OAKS (2014)
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Replies: 263
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Tarfasha is now clear 2nd fav on here, 13/2 !
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Trained by Dermot Weld, the Teofilo filly landed the Group Three Blue Wind Stakes at Naas on her return to action, looking a three-year-old destined for a big future.
However, she is owned by Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum who is also lucky enough to have the current ante-post favourite for the Oaks in John Gosden's Taghrooda. Weld was keen to go for the Oaks after her Naas win, but Sheikh Hamdan's racing manager Angus Gold said: "There will be no decision until as late as possible. "It's one where there is nothing to be gained by making an early call and it will be left entirely up to Sheikh Hamdan whether he wants two runners in the race. Profiles D K Weld Tarfasha "I don't think the ground is a particular issue for either filly so that is unlikely to have a say. "We'll just see how they both are nearer the time and then Sheikh Hamdan will decide. "It's a nice problem to have." |
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SDS jocked off Ihtimal for Fallon
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I would leave them if I were him. He was doing pretty well before he joined and i'm sure he would do so again.
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Taghroodha form just taken a blow with jordans and uchenna filling the last 2 places
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form in bits
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Should now ensure Tarfasha runs Stevie.
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Tarfasha very weak on here, nothing of merit wanting to back. Tahgrooda strong again after initially going out to 3.0.....
I'd be inclined to say Tarfasha may not be running...... |
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yep, surprisingly she is in to 7/4.
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Worried now but we'll see. |
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Dermot Weld didn't express any doubts earlier on ATR about handling Epsom for what it's worth. Will she stay? Yes, no problem. Will she handle the track? No problem at all. He'd like Good ground but I think most trainers would so now it's just about whether the owner wants two runners and if he'd deny Weld's request!
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He also has Hadaatha for the Ribblesdale and she'd have an e/w chance in that race, so may as well go 2 for the oaks imo.
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I'd have to now think Marvellous will go there with a favourites chance, as she now has the best form in the book. Opposition is thin on the ground, and Taghroods is too short a price on achievement.
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For the sake of the thread i backed her at 8/1.
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INCHILA INCHILA INCHILA
crying out for 12 furlongs and a decent pace would no go a miss either |
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Been looking for a filly to take on Taghrooda who's last run has been overrated imo. 4 runners from that and 4 unplaced - Jordan Princess beat 17 lengths...Sound Reflection beat 6...Uchenna beat 16...Surcingle beat 32...although her maiden win's form has been franked.
I would much rather be on Marvellous at 7-1 given she's by Galileo and is now a Classic winner and have backed accordingly. |
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She's top on my ratings now, I'm annoyed I didn't back her for the oaks as I fancied her e/w for the Guineas yesterday as I gave her quite a decent figure for Navan and the 2nd had boosted that form, Her debut this year was in a steadily run 7f race when O'briens were running below form she got outpaced and then stayed on well. The strongly run mile on testing ground yesterday showed how good she was and stamina won her the day. I think I'll wait til the day now before deciding whether to have a bet on her or not.
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On watching the race first time I was quite impressed with Marvellous and was thinking this could be another Imagine situation for O'Brien, but on reviewing the race I reckon it fell apart and I wouldn't put her in the same class as Imagine. Having said that I have only 2lbs between the first 4 in the betting so wouldn't rule her out.
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It certainly fell apart to some extent and I have all the beaten horses running below their best, however the winner's performance still comes out several pounds ahead of everything else in the oaks. Of course Taghrooda has not had a chance to produce a big figure yet so she could be capable of better as could the weld horse. I'm also slightly uncomfortable about backing a filly just 2 weeks before the oaks who has just recorded a good figure in a strongly run race on testing ground. So I'm going to leave it til the day.
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If the weld filly runs then I'll probably just leave it at that. Maybe a filly like Palace could come good if the ground is better too or one of the other O'brien ones like Bracelet or Tapestry could easily come good on the day.
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horses that have their plans changed do not have a good record, if the plan was Epsom then does she really run at the curragh
good performance but maybe she just handled the ground better than any others, and she wont get that ground at epsom |
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Will Marvellous stay? She is out of a Storm Cat mare, so I'm inclined to doubt it, however well she finished the Guineas, and judging from her Royal Ascot entry in the Coronation Stakes, so do "the lads" (admittedly she is also in the Ribblesdale).
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Marvellous rates comfortably best with me and should be fav imo.
Plenty of Oaks winners have defied their breeding to stay 1m4f, so would judge her more on the style of her Guineas win than any stamina doubts from the dam side. |
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Marvellous will be favourite soon
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Sounds like Marsh Daisy will be supplemented.
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@pedrobob, got to agree with you here. I am surprised she is still 5/1 and have backed accordingly, the only slightly suspect performance was when they dropped her back to 6f, looks at a stayer to me based on the video and will be suited by any juice in the ground. Difficult to say that the form of Taghrooda is working out that well with Jordan princess being well beaten next time out. Could see them being 7/2 joints come the day or something similar. Looks a weakish renewal at the moment for me.
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Marsh Daisy deserves to take her chance in what looks a fairly open race, I have her within the same 2lb span of the first 4 in the betting.
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Of those 5 fillies it's all important which one will progress the most but the one I'd be least keen on is Marvellous. The final time was just ordinary for the race, with Lightning Thunder running below her Newmarket form, and for me the race collapsed. Marvellous looked good coming through to win but she was outpaced for the most part of the race and while they'll go a slower tempo over the longer trip at Epsom I can't see that lack of tactical speed doing her any favours on that course. The other negative is that even though she appeared to win fairly easily in the end she must've had quite a hard race being pushed to keep up for so long.
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If she had won the English Guineas I would respect her a lot more but am put off by the fact she has won an Irish Guineas 2 weeks before Epsom. The Oaks was definitely not the plan, and there is no guarantee of her stamina. 8f to 12f is a big jump and the dam was speedy.
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Galileo does get quite a few horses that stay from speedy dams, it could be she takes more after him sint.
The dam was also a full sister to Giant's Causeway and she could have his toughness by the looks of it. I think the oaks is the way to go as I wouldn't fancy her having the speed for the Coronation stakes on faster ground at Ascot. To win over a mile at Navan with its uphill finish on your first start as a 2yo suggests stamina is her forte and again it looked that way in the guineas. Agree with figgis lack of tactical speed if it were faster ground at epsom could prove her undoing but we shall see. |
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Soft ground could rule Tarfasha out of Oaks
BY DAVID BAXTER 1:30PM 27 MAY 2014 CONNECTIONS of Investec Oaks third-favourite Tarfasha will be keeping a close eye on the ground at Epsom, with slow conditions not considered suitable for the Dermot Weld-trained filly. Owner Sheikh Hamdan already holds a strong hand for the Classic with favourite Taghrooda - who is set to work at Epsom on Thursday morning as part of Breakfast with the Stars - but Naas Group 3 winner Tarfasha could miss the race if the ground is too slow. RELATED LINKS Oaks card As short as 4-1 with Ladbrokes but a general 6-1 chance, the filly won on ground described as yielding to soft last time out, though Weld mentioned post-race she would improve for a quicker surface. With 13mm of rain falling at the track on Monday, the going at Epsom was on Tuesday described as good to soft, soft in places. Speaking to the Racing Post, Sheikh Hamdan's racing manager Angus Gold said: "We will have to keep an eye on the weather because if the ground is soft there would have to be a doubt over whether we run Tarfasha. "It is still ten days away and a lot can change, it could stop raining, so we will keep a watching brief." |
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O'Brien has achieved the same feat before, with Imagine winning the Oaks just 12 days after winning the Irish Guineas so I wouldn't let that alone put me off, I just think Imagine was a better filly.
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I was very keen on Imagine but won't go into details to avoid upsetting the aftertimers police, but suffice to say on my figures she ran 30 lbs better than Marvellous fwiw.
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Any ideas how quick Epsom dries? I can't imagine it is as quick as HQ or Ascot.
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Dries very quickly. I have just missed one derby/oaks meeting in the last 15 years and kazzias oaks was the worst ground by far. If the weather is dry in the 48 hrs before it will not be bad imo. No need for any watering which is one good thing.
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O'Brien has achieved the same feat before, with Imagine winning the Oaks just 12 days after winning the Irish Guineas so I wouldn't let that alone put me off, I just think Imagine was a better filly.
.....whilst Peeping Fawn was having her 6th race of the season when touched off by Light Shift in a decent Oaks, 11 days after running 3rd to Finsceal Beo in the Irish Guineas.... and then rattling off a Group 1 fourtimer including thrashing Light Shift in the Irish Oaks all in her 3yo season. Marvellous is having it easy imo..... |
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What's the latest on Shamkala... price is steadily creeping in.
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the slower the ground the better for INCHILA
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pedrobob
Marvellous rates comfortably best with me and should be fav imo. Plenty of Oaks winners have defied their breeding to stay 1m4f, so would judge her more on the style of her Guineas win than any stamina doubts from the dam side. I think it was Cryoftruth who convinced me of the importance of the dam side, especially with fillies, in a dsicussion some time ago. Maybe last years Oaks. He it was who explained how genetics study had shown that certain DNA,only passed down the female line -mitochondria - were a strong influence for stamina. I wasn't convinced but followed it up and I now believe that there is much truth in this theory. Perhaps he will come on and repeat the argument. |
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sint. this shamakala seems to be creeping in under the radar and I don't know why. this filly must be high on peoples list but nobody seems to be mentioning it. I don't think there are any stamina worries and it's form looks solid, it is now my main fancy along with marvellous. if AOB wins with one of his outsiders I will never bet ante-post again. cheers.
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