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By:
kincsem
When: 27 Jul 13 15:20
5.40 secs fast on good ground. Whoops
By:
mac99
When: 27 Jul 13 15:26
well done  Novelist  backers  genuine animal, though CDA  ran ok  on the ground   , needs soft
at his age
By:
kincsem
When: 27 Jul 13 16:05
From the Racing Post website
Novellist is now vying for favouritism with Flintshire, Al Kazeem and Orfevre for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe with each available to back at 6-1.


Four joint favourites at 6/1 for a race in ten weeks time. Laugh
By:
BJT
When: 27 Jul 13 16:43

Jul 27, 2013 -- 10:26AM, mac99 wrote:


well done  Novelist  backers  genuine animal, though CDA  ran ok  on the ground   , needs soft at his age


And still gets beaten 5 lengths by the same horse?  Nothing to do with the ground.

By:
Figgis
When: 27 Jul 13 17:40
Stevie

Your interpretation of the Buckhounds Stakes was far closer to reality than mine. Ektihaam obviously well below par today but safe to assume he's nowhere near as good as I'd hoped. Would be more use as a pacemaker if they continue to ride him like that. Like you, I thought Trading Leather did well considering where he was positioned early on. Not a surprise to see Novellist win, given that CDA is past his best, but it was a big surprise to see him win like that. I had him pegged as an ordinary Gp1 winner on his Saint-Cloud win. It's difficult to be sure with only one other race on the round course, sometimes races do just fall apart, but if that win was as good as it looked I have him improving 9lbs on his Saint-Cloud form and it would be up with the best performances I've seen in that race.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 27 Jul 13 17:58
looks a big horse that Ektihaam though Figgis maybe he got jarred up on that ground, also I think he would have liked to have his own way in front.

Form wise the 3yos have probably run close to their last runs and Universal probably close to his Hardwicke run?

The ground was definitely faster than it was for Harbinger's King George especially on the straight course.

Pity we've only got a steadily run 4 runner hcap to compare it
to on the round although we do have yesterdays races and  I'm looking at the round course quickening up as much as the straight track did from yesterday.
By:
mac99
When: 27 Jul 13 18:17
No excuses for Ektihaam today  ,looked like he just jacked it  in , maybe  he was affected  by  his  near fall on the  bend last time out  and they  had not been  able to get enough work into him  , the drift out   to 12.5   on bf   before the off  indicates some  kind of fitness  issue ?  anyway would not have  won  so  that is  that .Think CDA may still improve   with a bit of give  but would not back him against  Novellist   to win  , well at   eight or ten to one  i might Silly
By:
Figgis
When: 27 Jul 13 18:48
Actually, Stevie, I don't want to do the horse an injustice but I'm more inclined to think the race may have fell apart. He did have good form in his own country and Italy last year and of course horses can improve 9lbs from one race to the next, but I'm not entirely convinced about today's race. Obviously the best horse on the day won but maybe the win looked better than it actually was? I'll have a proper look tomorrow.
By:
Sandown
When: 27 Jul 13 21:38
CDA had no form on fast/firm ground so no surprise that he ran below form. TL & Hillstar are improving 3 yr olds who go on fast ground. No surprise there. Universal couln't make the pace in this class so no surprise. Ektihaam ran below form so that was a surprise. The winner was a solid horse who had never run on firm ground. Being by Monsun and with his best form on soft it was a surprise that he ran so well. I would have backed him if the rain had arrived but it hadn't so I didn't. He was on his toes in the paddock and is very average to look at. the easiest winner of the race since Montjeu I should think. I would take the form at face value and the time was top class (125 worth 130). But Montjeu couldn't win the Arc in the same year as his KG win, remember.
By:
Figgis
When: 27 Jul 13 22:06
I'm not too sure that the time is top class, Sandown, I wouldn't be adamant one way or the other as there are a few ways of reading it. Galician's time holds it down, unless you take the view that the winner and second both improved. There's obviously the possibility that the round course was slower but the last race on the card doesn't really shed any light on the matter. I think it's one of those races where you just have to make a judgement call.
By:
brigust1
When: 27 Jul 13 22:36
How do you know he ran below form Sandown? I know it looks likely but how do you know?
By:
Figgis
When: 27 Jul 13 22:49
I can't see even the most contrarian punter thinking that was CDA's best form. If you think there's even a possibility that could be his best form, brigust, then backing him on the strength of such form was absurd.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 28 Jul 13 06:17
If we are to say silly things like CDA ran to form because he's finished the same distance behind Novellist then are we to also assume Dunaden is a much better horse than CDA despite that horse having been beaten by st nix abbey who in turn was beaten by CDA? Perhaps we should also believe that Novellist has not even improved since last season where he was beat twice by Pastorius but hang on Pastorius was later beaten 6 lengths by CDA. If you take every result literally like this then you will end up tying yourself up in knots.
By:
sintonian
When: 28 Jul 13 08:24
CDA looks on the downgrade to me. Here are post-race comments from beaten connections.

Trainer Corine Barande-Barbe reflected after her charge came home in fourth place: "Christophe said he needed a run - he took a breath three times which showed he needs a race and this [the rain] is coming too late. The going was quite fast. But I am not disappointed, competition always improves him. Even if we do work at home, it is not the same and he knows a lot as well.

"We might go to York next for the Juddmonte International but we have a date here in October (QIPCO Champions Day)."

Christophe Soumillon added: "He ran very well - he wasn't really fit - the horse needs a race. The speed we went and the track conditions, it was hard to follow that pace."

Jim Bolger, trainer of three-year-old Trading Leather, who was meeting his elders for the first time after winning the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby last time out, said: "That was very satisfactory. Everything went well - except for the last furlong!

"We probably could have done with a little more pace early on, but all in all we're very happy. We'll stick to the original plan, all being well - he'll go to York for the Juddmonte International, then to Leopardstown [for the Irish Champion Stakes] and then back here for the Champion Stakes on QIPCO British Champions Day."

Kevin Manning added: "We jumped off very well and turning in I thought we were going to win but I didn't realise how well Johnny (Murtagh) was going. He just picked me up - a very smart horse the winner."

Bolger added that his QIPCO 2000 Guineas and St James's Palace Stakes winner Dawn Approach was in "better than good form - mighty awesome form".

Sir Michael Stoute said that the rapidly-improving third-placed Hillstar, for whom this was a first Group One attempt after being supplemented on Monday at a cost of £75,000, was "going the right way. We're delighted with him and I don't think we'll be dropping him back in class now."

Ryan Moore said: "He's run a very good race - I was just caught behind Cirrus (Des Aigles) when I could have done with being a length closer but he has run a very good race."

Joe Fanning, partner of fifth Universal, said: "He's run a good race but was just a bit keen when the Bolger horse (Trading Leather) came upsides."

Graham Lee, rider of sixth Red Cadeaux, said: "He gave me a great ride and is a superstar - it is a privilege to ride him."

Olivier Peslier, on board seventh Very Nice Name, said: "It was very fast for him and he had no action on it and he couldn't follow the pace."

Dane O'Neill, on board eighth Ektihaam, said: "He just didn't turn up today - a disappointing run. It was too bad to be true, he didn't even finish his race."
By:
brigust1
When: 28 Jul 13 08:40
Figgis and Steve. These questions are not silly. I have backed CDA in his last two runs knowing full well I thought he could be over rated. Even allowing for that I thought he should nearly win.
However isn't it odd when a horse runs below EXPECTATIONS he is thought to be below par. Goodness knows how many horses run in a similar way but are actually running to form.
Of course his age is a point. But isn't it odd that Red Cadeaux who has run a similar number of times and travelled much further to boot also ran below form. Red Cadeaux, like CDA, won his first Group 1 only recently after many races. Isn't it odd that Red Cadeaux also achieved his highest rating after finishing 2nd to Animal Kingdom whose main claim to fame is finishing 2nd to Wise Dan with Excelebration behind him?
Isn't it just possible that Novelist is an improver and a strong stayer (as Wohler quoted about German breeding) and that the 3 year olds benefited from their weight concession as Nathaniel did a couple of years ago? Isn't it possible.

Or just maybe CDA and Red Cadeaux hit the 7 year wall together? Is it not just possible that they have, this season, met a new order?

I also looked at the Dunaden/St Nic form but Novelist won and when a horse wins no-one knows how far he could have won had the race been run at a stronger pace etc. Plus Dunaden looks like a horse that needs a real stamina test as he may have found at St Cloud and as his Melbourne Cup form shows and the times St Nic beat him were on faster ground on sharp tracks.

Add to that you are asking for a horse that beat the course record easily never ran to form.
By:
Masterminded
When: 28 Jul 13 08:51
Think the ground played a part regarding Cirrus and at the age of seven the busy seasons he's had are probably catching up with him. He probably still has a good race in him on easier ground but not sure he will be hitting the heights of last season. Regardless I thought Novellist was very impressive and a worthy contender for the Arc. Also worth mentioning it's pleasing to see Trading Leather & Hillstar heading the right way.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 28 Jul 13 09:27
Thanks for the quotes, Sint - I think Manning's are the most telling ones!

Trading Leather's optimum trip may well turn out be 10f but he has been campaigned very aggressively and they continue to ask a lot of him so I would n't want to support him in the Juddmonte or Irish Champion where he's likely to be opposed by fresher horses.

The way Hillstar finished his race made me think St Leger but he's not entered.I'll be taking a closer look at the Stoute horses who are entered in that race (Bold Sniper and Liber Nauticus).
By:
A_T
When: 28 Jul 13 09:39
Turned out to be a good race. Winner is clearly very good - arguably best 12f horse in Europe along with Flintshire. CDA ran well below his best probably due to ground but may also be on the downgrade.
By:
Figgis
When: 28 Jul 13 09:53
Brigust, CDA didn't run below my expectation, which was that he'd run below form. The idea that most horses run to form in every race is ludicrous. If you believe there's a possibility he ran to form then you must believe that those in front of him are either top class (you were sure they weren't beforehand and it would go against your degeneration of the breed theory, so think we can rule that out), or you've backed a horse you think is barely capable of a 120 rating twice in Gp1s, which seems a bizarre way to bet.
By:
brigust1
When: 28 Jul 13 10:00
Fig beating Red Cadeaux, Very Nice Nae and Ektihaam so far isn't a 120 rating. Had he won by a neck from Universal you would have readily claimed Universal ran above himself simply because of the distances back to the other runners.


So can you tell me where CDA ran below form? He beat Red Cadeaux 5+ lengths that ties in with CDA's form with St Nicholas Abbey through Dunaden/Sea Moon/Gentildonna etc.

The two 3 year olds were rated 118 and 111 and Nathaniel was rated 115 when he won as a 3 year old.

Hillstar won the same race Nathaniel won at Ascot before the King George and he beat a 92 rated horses whereas Hillstar beat a much higher rated horse. Similarly Trading Leather had won a classic.

Add to that Novelist had already beaten CDA this season.

Add to that he beat the course record easily.

So I would like someone to tell me where he ran below FORM. Not below EXPECTATIONS. 

He ran well below my expectations but that happens and horses eventually get rated accordingly. St Nicholas Abbey ran below my expectations in the 2000Gns but on lines through Goldikova, CDA and Canford Cliffs he probably ran to form and not his rating.
By:
A_T
When: 28 Jul 13 10:01
Brigust will be using races 5 years from now in an effort to prove Frankel was nothing special
By:
brigust1
When: 28 Jul 13 10:03
If you can answer the question A_T it may be useful. I'm not accusing you of anything.
By:
Figgis
When: 28 Jul 13 10:03
Add to that he beat the course record easily.

Says it all really.
By:
Figgis
When: 28 Jul 13 10:06
Had he won by a neck from Universal you would have readily claimed Universal ran above himself simply because of the distances back to the other runners.

No, maybe the BHA handicapper would have but I don't pick one horse to use as a yardstick.
By:
brigust1
When: 28 Jul 13 10:06
No it doesn't. You are better than that Figgis. For a horse to break the course record he has to be pretty fit I would have thought and the race was properly run so the form should be reliable. Unlike small runner, heavy ground races. How can that be 'Says it all really'?
By:
brigust1
When: 28 Jul 13 10:08
Where did I use one horse? I mentioned and referred Novelist, Trading Leather, Hillstar, Universal, Red Cadeaux, Very Nice Name and Ektihaam.
By:
Figgis
When: 28 Jul 13 10:17
The one horse would be Universal, unless you think that all distances between horses well beaten are always a true indication of ability? If that's the case you ought to have an even higher opinion of Frankel's Queen Anne win than Timeform?
By:
Figgis
When: 28 Jul 13 10:23
For a horse to break the course record he has to be pretty fit I would have thought and the race was properly run so the form should be reliable.

I expect most horses to be fit in Gp1s. For a horse to break the course record the main requirement is very fast ground/strong tailwind. Yes the race is properly run and the form should be reliable, although it certainly isn't necessarily an indicator of great form. What I'd like to know is how does any of that prove that any individual beaten horse in the race ran to its best?
By:
brigust1
When: 28 Jul 13 10:27
If you want to bring the QA into it excluding Excelebration the next 6 home haven't won a race since if you call that form. And I think only one minor winner has come out the the race altogether.

So lets just stick to CDA and the King George please Fig.  I'm not just cribbing I backed him on known form knowing the risks. You would also have to agree that Universal ran above himself in a race where the pace was helped by Ektihaam.

Ran to his best? How did it pan out betting wise? Possibly only Ektihaam and CDA ran below EXPECTATIONS. Ektihaam may be excused because we don't know his proper form yet but no-one has definitively pointed out through which horse CDA ran below form.

If Hillstar won a better Ascot race than Nathaniel did and who, by the way, is better than St Nic who is the same horse as CDA then Hillstar finishing just in front of CDA shouldn't be a surprise, should it?
By:
Figgis
When: 28 Jul 13 10:31
No, I have Universal below his best, not surprising considering the ride.
By:
brigust1
When: 28 Jul 13 10:44
If you think CDA ran to 120 then Universal ran his best race. I think the way the race was won suited Universal stamina wise so he was the improver. Novelist seems better this year as can be expected. Isn't it odd that some people think CDA improved at 6 yet cannot reconcile themselves that other horses can improve earlier. I think Trading Leather ran to form and Hillstar showed he is an improver. CDA ran to form on fast ground over 12 furlongs and no-one has yet pointed out otherwise. Red Cadeaux ran to form through St Nic and the Coronation Cup and CDA. Very Nice Name simlarly to RC and Ektihaam killed himself against Universal. Bookies love excuses.
By:
brigust1
When: 28 Jul 13 10:46
This may have been CDA's 2nd run after a layoff but it was his 2nd run after a layoff when he met Frankel. No excuses there I hear.
By:
Figgis
When: 28 Jul 13 10:46
Stevie

I have used the same allowance as for Galician's race, which has Galician and Trail Blaze improving a bit and the others running to or below their marks. I have Novellist improving 3lbs from his Saint-Cloud win to 128 on a Timeform scale. This has the rest running below par to some degree. However, that is nothing unusual when we have a wide margin winner in a Gp1, as while it is generally the sign of a good winning performance, it is also usually combined with the beaten horses not running to peak, imo. Possibly the round course could be rated slower, but I'm satisfied with that for the moment. I certainly wouldn't rule him out of the Arc but he isn't a stand out and, as Sandown says, it's not a given he'll be in the same form come October anyway.
By:
Figgis
When: 28 Jul 13 10:55
Trading Leather won the Irish Derby but the Irish classics can be pretty poor. 
Cannot have Trading Leather for any money


I think Trading Leather ran to form

Hmm, brig, so a horse who won a poor race that you couldn't have at any money ran to form, beating CDA, who you say also ran to his best form, by nearly 4 lengths. Yet you chose to back the latter at a short price, can you explain?
By:
brigust1
When: 28 Jul 13 11:24
Figgis as a punter I make decisions. As a punter I am often wrong. Thankfully not always. Those comments were widely repeated in yesterday's press. I could have sat on the fence and not lost money but I didn't and did. As a punter you eliminate horses for one reason or another. I openly questioned CDA's rating but still had him slightly above the others. I was right and wrong at the same time.
If you ignore CDA's form over 12f with CDA all you have left is a risky Champion Stakes from all of those runs.

Why don't you just point out where CDA didn't run to form. If it was so bl oody easy someone would have done so by now. Including you.
By:
Figgis
When: 28 Jul 13 11:33
a risky Champion Stakes

Everybody else I've seen or heard thinks there was no fluke about that race, so risky in only your opinion, which, as you have just accepted, is often wrong.

Why don't you just point out where CDA didn't run to form

Well, anybody can choose to believe that Trading Leather would've finished nearly 4 lengths in front of CDA in those previous Group races, Hillstar 3 lengths in front of him and Universal less than a length behind. I just hope they don't punt seriously.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 28 Jul 13 11:45
Figgis,
I have done the same allowance for straight and round too. This gave me galician on 98, Yeager 82 (without wfa), I therefore have 127 for Novellist with Trading Leather running to 106 (without wfa) which is the same as I gave him in the irish derby and Hillstar has also done the same figure as his last run  if I take off that sectional I gave him last time, normally I'd expect them to improve a pound or 2. Universal 110 improved on my previous figure but I feel I must have under-rated him before. Red Cadeaux I have running about a stone below form and Cirrus 19lb below his best. I used 11.4lb
per second and 1.9lb per length. my standard 148.8
anyway I've got to finish rating the other meetings now.
might look in later
By:
harry callaghan
When: 28 Jul 13 12:04
I think from my own perspective the king george just confirmed my beliefs...

that these really are the worst crop of 3 year old middle distance horses we have seen for many years going back to the great kris kin...class wise anyway 2 seasons running a poor bunch

they both ran to form for me as trading leather whom ran choke out after his small break and even off fast fractions wouldn't settle...hillstar got a nice trip held up out of the speed duel that was happening up front and confirmed his ascot form...

novellist confirmed himself a decent winner of the race for me...have to say i didn't see it coming but the pace of the race suited after running in slower run french races which had obviously kept him under wraps, in regards his figure he was capable of running to, although to an extent the race fell in his lap although if like me you feel hillstar ran his race figure wise then he was still a good winner of the race...

people will knock CDA and he now has a lot to prove but he is still coming back to himself after a ligament injury... although 7 now given a 1m 1/4 on soft going and right race plus fitter (which he patently wasn't yesterday) he would still be on my radar at the right price later in the season...but he now has big questions to answer

universal ran a cracker after chasing the fast fractions and he will continue to pay his way against his own company

ektihaam looks one to be afraid of however... playing up before the start and not looking happy on fast ground to me... he looks one to back off as clearly is not an easy creature...the race he won earlier in the season with close examination fell in his lap with thomas running choke out and the hound main sequence in the line up who just wasn't interested and wants cut...it might be he handled the fast ground that day and now doesn't want it as was running full choke out in the hardwick back on fast ground...anyway he now comes with a big warning sign now...

it is hoped they now back off him and bring him back in lesser company on easier ground as he had looked progressive leading up to these last 2 mishaps
By:
twonky
When: 28 Jul 13 12:05
A very satisfying result for me personally, as Novellist was the only horse I had no doubts over going into the race. A few said he won't handle the ground, mainly because he hadn't raced on it before. But looking at his sires record, there wAs optimism regarding the going through Estimate, who improved for faster ground in the Gold Cup. Now we know that Novellist is versatile regarding the ground, proven over the trip in a fast or slow run race, and more than likely, he's still got improvement to come. A massive player for this years arc, irrelevant of the going.

What we now definitely know, is that the classic generation are a poor bunch. Using this race as a guide, which can be dubious, I can only rate the Irish derby winner as a group 3 horse when taking on his elders. And personally think that the classic crop will not win an all aged group 1 over a mile or more in this country, this season.

I don't know if Novellist has any engagements before the arc, if he has, then he has to be opposed. Hopefully, it's straight to the arc for him. On this performance alone, the 6/1 is more than generous. Would be very interesting if Fabre steps Intello up in trip for the Niel, or sticks to the 8-10f route.
By:
brigust1
When: 28 Jul 13 12:52
Figgis I never said there was a fluke about the race. I clearly stated that So You Think and Snow Fairy had just tun in record breaking Arc. Snow Fairy did not have a clear run in the race. CDA 's jockey was done for excessive use. And apparently Nathaniel was given a hard time up front. Now add that to the King Geeorge and point out the queries over that result.

Why are you so selective with your comments? They are not my comments or observations they are actual facts. You may not like it and it may not fit in with your views, and you are often wrong too by the way. That doesn't make them my views.
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