Forums

Horse Antepost

There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 260 comments are related to the topic:
KGQE11 stakes...

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
Page 3 of 7  •  Previous | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 260
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 26 Jul 13 12:20
I suppose it could also depend on how many pounds per second you are using as well figgis.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 26 Jul 13 12:25
I added 2lb sectional to Hillstar's rating figgis that brought him level with TL. But I also think he is open to more improvement. Although it's mainly the 12lb wfa that brings them into contention. I think it's about 5lb too much.
By:
Figgis
When: 26 Jul 13 12:45
Stevie, I use a higher than official pounds per length/sec, using theirs the difference is even more exaggerated.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 26 Jul 13 12:52
there are plenty of hcaps run over the same c/d as group races and I've found the differences to be about right. although sprint races and staying races the difference between hcaps and G1s is less.
By:
lives with his mum
When: 26 Jul 13 13:04
Cirrus on top form would walk this, but there's got to some reservations about that given previous run, injury, age and less than ideal ground and trip. With 8 runners, the race has a nice ew shape and with some likely front runners potentially taking each other, it could be set up for the 'closers'. I'm not convinced about the 3yr old middle distance lot yet and think Very Nice Name (despite having a terrible name) is a decent ew poke @20s with those BM going 1/4 odds
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 26 Jul 13 13:06
be careful Lives as if a lot of rain came TL might not run? and then down to 7 runners
By:
Figgis
When: 26 Jul 13 13:25
Even if I'm proved wrong about Ektihaam's ability, I still can't believe Hanagan has passed him over in favour of riding Mukhadram. I know the latter has a more obvious chance on the book, but personally I wouldn't choose a fav in a Gp2 over a 5th fav in a fairly open and winnable Gp1.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 26 Jul 13 13:35
I'm looking forward to seeing how Mukhadram gets on as I'm sure he's overrated. problem is he's not against the most reliable of horses in Sri Putra and Wigmore. Maybe the hood and blinkers could bring the former back to form. Grandeur and The Apache have 3lb penalties but they're decent enough.

Can you imagine how Hanagan will feel if he loses on that hot pot and then Ektihaam wins the KG.
By:
Figgis
When: 26 Jul 13 13:44
Yeah I was looking to lay Mukhadram, but wouldn't be confident of what I'd have running for me. Noseda's horses are going well and Grandeur was pretty decent on his day last year but still needs to show he's trained on. Sri Putra and Wigmore Hall have seen better days, The Apache looks the one who could run him close.
By:
brigust1
When: 26 Jul 13 13:45
To be fair to PH I think St Nic was a guaranteed runner when he decided. It also may be worth looking at his other rides booked at York.
By:
Figgis
When: 26 Jul 13 13:52
I was still going to back Ektihaam, Brig, even when St Nic was a runner. I'm pretty sure I'd want the ride over Mukhadram even if I didn't rate him as highly as I have. I could live with missing the Gp2 winner but wouldn't be happy passing up a Gp1.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 26 Jul 13 13:52
bbc weather f/c has changed to just light rain for tomorrow now
By:
Figgis
When: 26 Jul 13 14:07
From a punting point of view I'm quite glad he's going to York if that's how he's thinking. You don't want someone on the horse who's busy thinking he could've been somewhere else. I also thought he was doing a bit too much too early last time.
By:
brigust1
When: 26 Jul 13 14:31
I think the 3 year olds last season were dire and this season look worse. So if you take them out of the race there is only CDA and RC left. Both are Gr1 winners so I'm quite happy taking them against this field.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 26 Jul 13 14:45
If this was a 10f race I would be lumping on CDA big time. I still haven't made my mind. Most likely I will just watch the race as I don't to back CDA but I don't really want to back against him either especially as arguably his 2 best performances seem to have come at Ascot. It's just the prospect of a truly run 12f that puts me off
By:
Figgis
When: 26 Jul 13 14:57
Does the age factor not put you off at all Stevie? I know people will say 7yos don't normally get a chance in these races, but the truth is that horses do not get faster at that age, whatever the class, most start to slow down to some degree. If it was heavy ground he just might get away with it. If he wins then I won't be kicking myself for not backing him, as the percentage call is he'll lose.
By:
brigust1
When: 26 Jul 13 15:09
The age doesn't put me off, or the ground. It is the trip that bothers me. They are bound to go a good gallop and Ascot is stiff enough. I still believe these horses aren't improving just benefiting from being still in training during a very poor period. All bar one of these horses wouldn't be considered in any normal year.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 26 Jul 13 15:15
I think 7 years for a gelding over middle distances is just about ok. Stayers can probably go on another year at the top level. Although I haven't checked any stats on this. I'll go and have a look at flatstats and see what it comes up with.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 26 Jul 13 15:17
of course there is a difference between lightly raced 7yos and ones like CDA who have had lots of hard races. Although he does seem to thrive on his racing
By:
Figgis
When: 26 Jul 13 15:21
I don't see that myself, there is more than enough evidence that they're up to standard. Also there were a lot of average (for the class) 3yos that have won this race in years gone by, King's Theatre, Petoski, etc. In any case, a horse doesn't have to be among the best at 3 in order to develop into a Gp1 4yo, Duke of Marmalade, Mtoto, Harbinger, etc. The idea is to try to spot a Gp1 horse before it has a string of them behind it and everyone else latches on. With a horse like CDA there is no edge for the punter, imo, they become poor value with their best days arguably behind them.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 26 Jul 13 15:25
overall win%
4yo 10.2%
5yo 9.7%
6yo 9%
7yo 8%
8yo 7.2%
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 26 Jul 13 15:31
I think a lot of the top class older horses are late developers who weren't at their best at 3.
By:
Figgis
When: 26 Jul 13 15:37
Yes, sorry that was in reply to brig's post.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 26 Jul 13 15:38
would you back CDA at 6/4 if it was 10f though Figgis. Surely he'd be more a 4/6 chance.
By:
Figgis
When: 26 Jul 13 15:45
No, Stevie, I'd still be against him in a Gp1 this year. Even though I didn't particularly rate the Saint-Cloud field I thought he was too short because of his age, that's apart from his injury problems. I think there's more value being against him than with him in future.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 26 Jul 13 15:46
both last 2 races at Ascot pretty quick times. especially as they appeared to go steady in that 1m fillies race. ground clearly on fast side
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 26 Jul 13 15:49
If they don't get any rain then Trading Leather must come into the equation too.
By:
Figgis
When: 26 Jul 13 15:51
Normally I'd split stakes between Ektimaal and TL, but I think this could be one race too many for TL, I might have a stake saver on him if I think he looks particularly well, but it's all in on Ektimaal for me at the moment.
By:
Figgis
When: 26 Jul 13 15:52
Or Ektihaam even Crazy
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 26 Jul 13 15:54
a good few questions should be answered tomorrow. I think that's what makes it a fascinating race even if it's not a top class renewal
By:
brigust1
When: 26 Jul 13 15:54
Fig I think there are more ways to look at form. Sometimes a horse is improving and sometimes benefiting from weaker competition. With the 4 and 3 year olds not franking their form then I swerve them until they do. The instances you quoted were correct. Petoski improved surprisingly just the once and was probably a lucky winner. DofM wasn't the best in his classic year and may have benefited from others retiring. Harbinger, on the other hand, was improving at a rate of knots and looked outstanding in what looked a good KG. Sadly they retired him.
With so many Gr1 races nowadays they are bound to be weaker on average but this, in my opinion, is very weak. Take the favourite out and I don't think it would qualify as a poor Gr1 at all. I know Trading Leather won the Irish Derby but the Irish classics can be pretty poor. 
Ektihaam may have a squeak but PH deserted him so quickly I'll rely on his judgement. Cannot have Trading Leather for any money.
By:
zilzal1
When: 26 Jul 13 15:56
I dont know about CDA'S effectiveness at 12f at all, much is made of his win over SNA at Meydan last year, but to my eyes Joseph let him have 1st run, again its said that the ground was faster than good but if htats the case then on ground also described as good then this year SNA went nearly 3.6 secondsfaster in the same race alltogether CDA'S form over 12f reads 221529215 consitent but certainly beatable

Im on Hillstar at 16-1 because i gambled they would supplement and imo he's the one with the possibilty of most progression in the field, im not confdent though
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 26 Jul 13 16:07
that's a cracking price for Hillstar Zil. Both his half sister Crystal Capella and half brother Sandor improved with racing. If he steps up again from that last run then he's capable of posting a big figure imo and no better trainer than Stoute.
By:
Figgis
When: 26 Jul 13 16:09
Brig, as I've said before, it's unfair to dissect present day races without putting older races under the microscope. When people talk about Nijinsky, they say he won the KG as though it was a top class field. It was before my time and I'm not knocking what the horse was capable of, but from what I've read about that KG field it could hardly be called stiff opposition.
By:
zilzal1
When: 26 Jul 13 16:26
Its more in the hope that a few of them set a decent gallop and may start to go hammer and tongs a furlong odd early Steve, course form there is always a plus as well, its the main reason why im going with Fehaaydi as well, dont think a small field race would have played to his strengrhs lto
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 26 Jul 13 16:38
Yes I can certainly see it zil. Ektihaam going off in front followed by Universal at a good clip. CDA moves upsides turning in, goes a length clear and then EK battles back to the front and then Hillstars comes late down the outside to take it.
By:
zilzal1
When: 26 Jul 13 16:49
Thats the plan...CoolLaugh
By:
brigust1
When: 26 Jul 13 16:55
I couldn't agree more Fig.

The KG in 1970 was pretty weak with only Blakeney, the previous year's Derby winner, as a danger. He did bolt up though and showed what is possible when the opposition is not strong.
Blakeney did finish 2nd and had just finished 2nd in the Ascot Gold Cup, the only Gt1 run at Royal Ascot, and had won the Ormonde.
Crepellana was 3rd and had just finished 2nd in the Prix D'Isphahan behind Caro winner of the French 2000gns and who then went on to win the Ganay, Dollar and Hoquart before he finished 2nd to Mill Reef in the Eclipse and 4th in Mill Reef's Arc.
Fourth home was Karabas who had just finished 2nd beaten by Connaught in the Eclipse. Connaught was narrowly beaten by Sir Ivor in the Derby and had just won the POW Stakes at Ascot beating Hotfoot. Karabas had just won the Hardwicke beating St Leger winner Intermezzo.
Hogarth was next from Italy and he had just won the Grand Presidente.
Caliban was last and had just won the Coronation Cup beating the brilliant Park Top.
Not a great field.
And this was after he had won the Irish Derby, Epsom Derby, 2000 Gns and Gladness Stakes that season. The rest is history as they say.
By:
brigust1
When: 26 Jul 13 17:10
Oh and Karabas then won the Washington International and Shoemaker, 2nd to Blakeney in the Derby won the Grand Prix de St Cloud among other races the following year. And the 3rd horse, Prince Regent, next won the Irish Derby beating Ribofilio (Guineas favourite but pulled up) and who finished 2nd to Intermezzo in the St Leger.
It's great looking back.
By:
brigust1
When: 26 Jul 13 17:12
Stevie the strongest stayer, imo, is Red Cadeaux. I know his last run must be ignored but I think this race is made for him. He stays 2 miles and was 2nd over 10f in Meydan and all his last runs have been in Group 1's.
Page 3 of 7  •  Previous | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
‹ back to topics
www.betfair.com