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By:
harry callaghan
When: 28 Jul 13 13:01
twonky...

i take it you don't think that the 3 year old milers are up to scratch am i reading that right????

also why should novellist be opposed if he were to run before the arc...sorry but was just trying to understand your reasoning on both comments
By:
Figgis
When: 28 Jul 13 13:04
CDA 's jockey was done for excessive use.

Under the newly introduced absurd rules, which were quickly amended and Soumillon was returned his prize money. A very selective comment, I would say.
By:
Figgis
When: 28 Jul 13 13:07
I clearly stated that So You Think and Snow Fairy had just tun in record breaking Arc. Snow Fairy did not have a clear run in the race. CDA 's jockey was done for excessive use. And apparently Nathaniel was given a hard time up front. Now add that to the King Geeorge and point out the queries over that result.

Odd that there can be excuses for any number of horses that raced against CDA there, but none at all allowed for any of his own below par efforts.
By:
brigust1
When: 28 Jul 13 13:16
You may call it selective but it was a rule ALL of the jockeys in the race had to abide by.

Figgis when a horse at 14/1 runs the race of his life it requires a good looking at. Funny how you said Universal could not be considered just that CDA obviously ran below form. You make it up as you go along just to try to prove a point.

Perhaps you don't think horses can run above themselves on odd occasions. Who knows.
By:
twonky
When: 28 Jul 13 13:23
Harry,

Yes, classic crop are overrated, just my opinion, and firmly believe the front 2 in the Sussex will be turned over by Declaration of War.

Novellist had a hard race yesterday, and like most top class horses they need a break of 6 weeks between races, especially after running such fast times. Can't think of any group 1 12f races in Europe that he would go for anyway. MayBe there's 1 in Germany.
By:
Figgis
When: 28 Jul 13 13:27
Funny how you said [i]Universal could not be considered just that CDA obviously ran below form.[/i]

I don't even understand what that means?

Perhaps you don't think horses can run above themselves on odd occasions.

Of course they can. However, I do not cling on to that belief when the horse goes on to frank the form. I also do not back a horse in a Gp1 at a short price who I consider to be 4 lengths worse than a horse I wouldn't back with any money.
By:
Sandown
When: 28 Jul 13 13:31
Figgis

I'm not too sure that the time is top class, Sandown,


I'm reasonably sure that it is. In fact, I have revised it to 130 worth 135 which is a big time fig. The Galician run has no effect for me; I have the round course fasterthan the straight course, which is the opposite of the way it usually is. I wonder if they watered more on the straight? Didn't feel as though there was any wind at the time. From paddock inspection, Novellist was on his toes but a notch or two down from being a proble. In fact, he looked like the only one who was really up for it. Red Cadeaux's looks belied his price. TL and HS were fine.


brigust1

How do you know he ran below form Sandown? I know it looks likely but how do you know

If we take his run behind when second to Frankel,he showed nothing at the end of his race this time. He was outsprinted by the winner over the last 3f by around 6-7 lengths. On times and collateral form he ran some 15lb below his highest rating.He looked fine in the paddock but pullled on his way to post. He was kep off the pace but had every chance turning for home being only 2 lngth behind Novellist at the 3f pole.
I think we just have to conclude that 12f on very fast ground are not his optimum conditions.
By:
brigust1
When: 28 Jul 13 13:33
Sandown do you not think that may be the crux of the matter? In his small field, heavy ground runs they go conservatively then CDA quickens away etc. Sometimes when the horses around him are just as quick over shorter they beat him and that is why he gets beaten so often. Plus in Meydan he ran exactly that kind of race quickening clear 4 out then holding on.
This was an end to end and found him out. Not that he was below form but that he never stayed properly and that is his form.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 28 Jul 13 13:34
well thats a shame twonky think you are very wrong about the 3 year old milers...

declaration of war is just an average winner of the queen anne and will do well to get within 3 lengths of dawn approach who for me is well up scratch in regards top class 3 year old milers go...toronado can follow him homeGrin

the older bunch of milers are an incredibly poor bunch for me anyway...good luck if you wager the horse

fair enough in regards novellist although for me i always like an arc horse to prep... small race or not
By:
Figgis
When: 28 Jul 13 13:34
Sandown

if you have the round course faster, how are you arriving at a comparison for your big time rating?
By:
Sandown
When: 28 Jul 13 13:48
figgis

I can use the sectionals to some extent and Big Thunder fits in nicely with an improved performance. If i had the round course allowance the same as the straight then the improvement for BT would be unrealistic. So, I am using the lower grade to set the maxiimum for me which is the way I prefer to work.


brigust1

CDA's best figures for me when winningare at 10f with cut. His 12f figs are below. conclusion. His 12f form is below his 10f form and he is better on softer ground. So did he run below form? Not if you define his 12f form being sig below his 10f form. In which case he was no 2/1 chance which was the conclusion I expressed in an earler post. In short, he was a poor fav.uner the prevailing conditions.
By:
Figgis
When: 28 Jul 13 13:53
Sandown, ok but the sectionals are still at the mercy of an accurate going allowance. Your round course standards must be significantly slower than mine. In my view, round course average times will be somewhat slower simply because the ground is often slower.
By:
brigust1
When: 28 Jul 13 14:02
So reading between the lines you are saying he ran to his 12f fast ground form. That is exactly what I have been saying all along when comparing him with his run against St Nic. It is a pity about St Nic because that would have answered a few questions.
By:
Sandown
When: 28 Jul 13 14:08
figgis

The thing is that I have found that there is a maximum speed that horses can reach - they just cannot go faster than a certain speed or fast finishing split and this helps me to set a limit - the going allowance just has to reflect this. When the allowance based on final times gives a finishing split that is just too fast to be real, then I adjust for that.
By:
Sandown
When: 28 Jul 13 14:10
brigust

I think that's fair comment, although of course, to repeat the form at 12f inc yesterday is sig below his best form- which is at 10f on softer grnd.
By:
Figgis
When: 28 Jul 13 14:16
Brigust, CDA's rating his based on his better 10f performances. When people are saying he didn't run to form they are obviously talking about his best rating. To start talking about he ran to his 12f rating is ridiculous. He didn't run to his best, which is what his price was based on and what he should be judged on as a racehorse.
By:
brigust1
When: 28 Jul 13 14:27
I know his main rating is Fig, I have said repeatedly I disagree with that and the Champion Stakes form etc. This is slightly detached and that is why I constantly referred to his defeat of St Nic over 12f. As far as betting was concerned through the St Nic form I felt he had a favourites chance but declared often that I was worried about the trip. As far as yesterday was concerned I think he ran to form and use St Nic races for comparison where others think he was way below form. They don't say compared with his 10f form they just say he wasn't back to his best suggesting if he was at his best he would have won. I don't agree with that.
By:
A_T
When: 28 Jul 13 14:29
So CDA ran as well yesterday as he did in Dubai? And Trading Leather is 5l better than SNA? That will come as a surprise  to many in Ireland.
By:
Figgis
When: 28 Jul 13 14:34
Sandown Joined:
The thing is that I have found that there is a maximum speed that horses can reach - they just cannot go faster than a certain speed or fast finishing split and this helps me to set a limit


I certainly have no argument with that. However, it can only give you a guide to how fast a horse isn't, not necessarily tell you how fast the horse is. The highest I could possibly rate the performance is 134, but all things considered, mainly the other times, but also the style of the win (didn't travel or quicken quite as well as I'd expect for such a high performance against that opposition), likely improvement from his previous run, the way the race was run, no great depth to the field, some horses running below par, some expectedly, some unexpectedly, then I'm happy with the 128 that the time comparison reaches. Just have to see what happens in the future, although as we both know that won't definitely tell us how good he was yesterday.
By:
brigust1
When: 28 Jul 13 14:44
Time will tell A_T. St Nic never won a classic and the Racing Post trophy he won he beat Elusive Pimpernel. At this stage in his career he had beaten Layali Andalus who is a 95 rated handicapper and Elusive Pimpernel who never won a race again and was a Gr3 horse at best. Then he returned to be beaten by Unaccompanied.

Of his 6 Group 1 wins he beat Red Cadeaux (a single Gr1 win), Midday (never beat the boys), Dunaden (cannot win a Gr1 inEurope), Elusive Pimpernel (Gr3 winner at best) and  Sea Moon (couldn't win a Gr1). His best run could have been in the Sheema Classic but Very Nice Name was 3rd. Make hay out of that if you wish.
By:
Millerracing67
When: 28 Jul 13 16:00
Very impressive performance by Novellist in yest KG. Little bit surprised he handled the fast ground as well as he did & win as comf (5L) Looks a very progressive 4yo colt indeed.
The 3yos ran as I thought they would, well but not up to winning a G1 all-age contest at the highest level as the GB&IRE 3yo mid-dist colts are no great shakes & there is not a lot between a handful of them. The fav (Cirrus) ran some way below his best for the 2nd time this season, would want to see him over 10f with some ease in the ground next time before I would say for sure that he has not returned the same horse this season, we shall see. The Arc is shaping up into a cracker if they all get there I top form.
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