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KGQE11 stakes...

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Replies: 260
By:
Figgis
When: 26 Jul 13 17:14
Ah, so races such as the Ormonde Stakes and Italian Group 1s are considered worthy when it suits but current Irish Derbys are dismissed as "pretty poor", ok then.
By:
Figgis
When: 26 Jul 13 17:16
I like a man not afraid of going against the crowd but if Red Cadeaux wins the race I will be utterly amazed.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 26 Jul 13 17:23
Brig, how much weight did Blakeney have to give Nijinsky back then? was it still 12lb or was it more back then?
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 26 Jul 13 17:29
I haven't got any figures for Red Cadeaux's foreign races but a 114 in the Hardwicke suggests he's not too far away if CDA runs below form. I wouldn't consider him in a normal year but take out CDA and it looks more like a good G2 race to me.
By:
Figgis
When: 26 Jul 13 17:43
Stevie, nearly every year I can remember people say it's a poor renewal but in most years the winner has to produce a true Gp1 rating to win.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 26 Jul 13 17:54
But look at the eclipse, the prince of wales stakes, the queen anne stakes this year. none of them up to scratch imo.
By:
Figgis
When: 26 Jul 13 17:57
Yes, I agree there.
By:
brigust1
When: 26 Jul 13 18:23
Blakeney had 9st 7lbs and Nijinsky 8st 7lbs. So 2lbs different to tomorrow.
By:
kincsem
When: 26 Jul 13 19:28
I've put a small bet on Trading Leather.  The older horses are carrying 9-7.  Few of them have ever had 9-7 on them.  Trading Leather won the Irish Derby in fast time on imo hard ground (no clerk will ever use the word).  He is getting 12 pounds from Cirrus.  I think Cirrus would be a bet if it was soft.
By:
bazzar
When: 26 Jul 13 19:33
I remember most of those races and how the official handicapper adjusted the weight concession,
because the horse was believed to be maturing earlier, I also remember some people believed that
NIJINSKY was unbeatable and never took into consideration the hard races he had earlier that season,
he was beaten in the ARC and the Champion stakes at Newmarket, he was a good horse though.
By:
johnoc99
When: 26 Jul 13 19:55
A big band of wet weather coming in from the south tomorrow and Ascot due plenty of it on the forecast I saw.
That will help the fav in a way as best form on soft but can also hinder it as this could be run at a very strong pace and stamina wins the day.Can't see CDA improving at 7 years of age and in fairness he can run below his best and still win this.Surely a better 10f horse that 12f so if/when the rain arrives and a strong pace almost a cert then at 13/8 he offers no value to me.

Novellist for me the likely winner.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 26 Jul 13 20:05
bbc weather forecast has changed again. now heavy rain between 8 and 10 and then light rain.
By:
johnoc99
When: 26 Jul 13 20:16
Bolger and Manning on record as blaming soft for their horse's poor run in The Racing Post last year so major negative there.
By:
Sandown
When: 26 Jul 13 20:30
CDA best RPR's 132 (10f soft (10f Hvy) 130 (11f Hvy)(10f Gd) 128 (10f Hvy) 125 (12f Gd) (10f Gd)
13f vsft) -NB TS for this was 64.

If the rain doesn't arrive I can see BM's taking this on.
By:
Figgis
When: 26 Jul 13 20:34
Sandown, what about the 2011 Champion Stakes? I have that with his best performances and the time was too fast to be genuine good ground, admittedly at a shorter trip.
By:
brigust1
When: 26 Jul 13 20:51
Three things bother me about that race Figgis. Firstly he started at 14s so his previous form wasn't considered good enough to win or be placed. Second the placed horses had just run placed in the Arc and third the jockey was done for excessive. Of his other Gr1 wins he beat St Nic somewhat fortuitously at Meydan and in his other he beat Giofra over 11f on heavy and I think she is a miler. So out of 46 odd runs even his 3 Gr1's have a bit of a cloud over them. In my opinion of course.
By:
Sandown
When: 26 Jul 13 20:58
Figgis
That's the 130 10f Gd
By:
Sandown
When: 26 Jul 13 21:13
The Sennockian Star time was faster than the rest, relatively speaking, and based on that I would say that the ground today was maybe good to firm.Certainly the fast side of good. Everything hinges on the amount of rain they will get which now looks to be heaviest between 8-10 am but with light showers throughout the day.
By:
Figgis
When: 26 Jul 13 21:19
Well, brig, he ran a very good race in the Gp2 Prix Dollar beforehand, the time was good and with the extra weight he carried that day it showed he was good enough to just about win a Gp1. Foolishly, though, I still wasn't completely convinced or I would've snapped up the price in the Champion Stakes. Actually I believe So You Think wasn't quite at his best by that stage of the season. Nevertheless it was still a very good performance, the clock backs it up. Sometimes times can be ambiguous but I reckon most time analysts would agree there was no fluke about that performance. I wouldn't hold the price as a reflection of his ability, more a reflection of an unwillingness of the public (myself included) to wager cash on a 5yo foreign horse from a relatively unknown yard, there were also some popular runners in the race. He's certainly franked that form since more than once. I do think that heavy ground emphasises his superiority, but I don't see how he can be fairly regarded as anything but a proper Gp1 horse, or, at least, he was.
By:
Figgis
When: 26 Jul 13 21:23
Sandown, yes, difficult to be sure, as there were some slowly run races earlier and there is a tendency for watered ground to dry rapidly in this weather, but it did appear to be good to firm by the end of the day.
By:
brigust1
When: 26 Jul 13 21:35
Can't have times and Ascot in the same breath Fig. Since the new works course records are being broken at will. The last one has stood since the early 80's that's over 30 years.
And if you look at Byword and Planteur he hasn't improved a pound that is why I think he has benefited from the horses that used to beat him retiring. In fact in the last 2 years he has been beaten 10 times ffs. And none of these horses would be classed as a world beater except perhaps Goldikova who wasn't even the best of her generation. Too much hype.
By:
Figgis
When: 26 Jul 13 21:39
Times are compared against other times on the day, not against times set years ago, so new course records are totally irrelevant.
By:
Figgis
When: 26 Jul 13 21:46
In fact in the last 2 years he has been beaten 10 times ffs.

An unbiased person might say he'd won 8 out of 17 races in those 2 seasons, finished 2nd seven times, 3rd once and only finished out of the frame once, where he was given a poor ride in a slowly run race. Quite impressive really.
By:
brigust1
When: 26 Jul 13 22:07
How can the facts be biased? In those races where he finished second the third horse was never more than 1.5 lengths away and from 27 subsequent runs these horses have won a Group 2 and 2 listed races. You have to be honest would this sound like the best horse in the world? Unless the rest aren't very good that is.
By:
Figgis
When: 26 Jul 13 22:24
It seems more than a touch unfair to be including races before he won his first Gp1, as it's fair to conclude he improved in the latter half of the 2011 season. If people want to believe that a horse can't improve at the age of 5 they're entitled to that view, even though they'd be wrong. Since he won the Champion Stakes he finished 5th in a slowly run Hong Kong Cup, given a poor ride. To be fair it was also run in December after he'd already competed in 10 races that year. He was then beaten on his first start of the 2012 season, he's never won first time out, suggesting he needs a run or he isn't trained to be fit first time out. He then won two Gp1s, before getting narrowly beaten in another slowly run race by a Gp1 filly who'd previously excelled in slowly run affairs. Then won a Gp2 easily before making Frankel (slightly below par on the ground) work harder than he'd ever had to get past another runner since his debut. To pick holes in that record would be just err picky.
By:
brigust1
When: 26 Jul 13 22:41
The words Hong and Kong should tell you something at least. And I think in that race he confirmed the form with Zazou who beat him again first time out by a similar distance so perhaps they are both wrong. And the filly who beat him where did she finish in her next races? And of course Frankel was slightly below par on the ground he previously beat Nathaniel on and beat him further here. Through Byword there isn't a lot between them including when they both ran against Goldikova. In fact there was nothing between then in 2011 yet in 2009 CDA was 2 lengths better. Perhaps he has regressed? What is it the bookies say about excuses? This lad has them all in spades. I'm not picky, I'm just not easily led.
By:
Figgis
When: 26 Jul 13 22:47
And of course Frankel was slightly below par on the ground he previously beat Nathaniel on and beat him further here

Sorry, but you're not seriously suggesting that Frankel's 2yo debut performance should be used as a measure against a performance against the same horse 2 years later?
By:
Figgis
When: 26 Jul 13 22:57
And the filly who beat him where did she finish in her next races?

Is this how you judge all horses? How many races did Blakeney win after Nijinsky beat him? If somebody requires this kind of evidence as proof to the merits of racehorses I can't see them getting further than the favourite in most races, so I'm not too surprised you're with him tomorrow.
By:
brigust1
When: 26 Jul 13 23:03
I would have bet good money on what part of that you would choose to ignore. I think CDA is over rated and the bookies agreed having St Nic the favourite even though rated 6lb less. And I still think that if St Nic had been given a ride in Meydan he would have beaten CDA and he would have beaten him tomorrow. But you would have had to have been living in another world to think horses like Byword, Planteur, Hunter's Light, Novellist, Dunaden, Zazou, Haya Landa, Mealagros, Polytechnician etc are proper Gr1 horses.

I cannot help it if we are going through a bad time and you only have to read Sam Walker in the Racing Post because he thinks exactly the same.
Blakeney only ran once more where he finished 5th in the Arc. So how will Ruler of the World do in the future? How would he do in tomorrows KG? Or perhaps Camelot how would he do in tomorrows race with no Nijinsky to tun against? Or Pour Moi what did he achieve?
By:
brigust1
When: 26 Jul 13 23:09
And if you think what horses do subsequently is of no importance then why do you think the Racing Post list that information in the form section for every race a horse has competed in? It doesn't list what the horses had done previously only what they have done subsequently. Of course it matters.
By:
Figgis
When: 26 Jul 13 23:16
Ok, then, if you're so sure that CDA isn't a proper Gp1 horse then it's an extremely odd decision to back him at the age of 7, with no decent form in the book this year, at a short price in a Gp1, regardless of the fact that you're not impressed with the opposition. If he gets beat tomorrow no doubt you'll claim victory that he was as bad as you thought, however, maybe in backing him in defeat you're actually showing that your judgement isn't as good as you think it is?Wink
By:
brigust1
When: 26 Jul 13 23:24
No I backed him because I think he is the best horse in the race. I backed Red Cadeaux as a saver in case he doesn't stay. That means absolutely nothing and you know it. This is a very weak race in my opinion. Weaker than the Champion Stakes he won and the Meydan race he won. So he should win if he stays.
That doesn't mean I think he is a brilliant racehorse or anywhere near being a great racehorse I will leave that garbage for the hype merchants.
As I have said before I don't think he has improved unusually. He is a very solid consistent performer who may have just got lucky in 3 of his 46 starts. Or perhaps he was just unlucky in the other 43?
By:
Figgis
When: 26 Jul 13 23:27
Brig, but from memory, you also backed him first time out this year. Nothing wrong with that, I've backed more than my fair share of short priced losers over the years, but can't recall backing any I thought were "overrated" at the time I backed them.
By:
brigust1
When: 26 Jul 13 23:37
I backed him first time out because I thought, like tomorrow, the race was weak and he was the best horse. If a horse is over rated in the world that doesn't mean he cannot beat a certain set of horses put in front of him. I judge a race on it's merits. And a horse on his or her merits.
You have to admit his record is sketchy at best. In his finest hour at Ascot would he have won had So You Think and Snow Fairy not run in the Arc. Or if the jockey had not used excessive or even if Snow Fairy had a clear run? None of that is conclusive.
In Meydan JOB definitely sat out of his ground and even Peslier said he was praying for the finishing post to come. How can you call that conclusive or clear cut?
For anyone to compare him with proper classic and Arc winners is silly. And if he bolts up tomorrow it isn't because he is a great horse, as the papers will claim, it is because the rest are rubbish.
By:
brigust1
When: 26 Jul 13 23:47
Anyway Fig, thanks for the chat. I'm off to bed.
By:
Figgis
When: 26 Jul 13 23:54
I reckon So You Think's Eclipse win was 2lbs better than CDA's best, but the Eclipse took the edge off him, he was never quite as good later that year. I think CDA would've beaten Snow Fairy whether she ran in the Arc or not. I actually backed SNA in the last 2 runnings of the KG but I have no doubts that CDA's best form was better. It depends what you define as great? I'd say he's a 132 horse on a Timeform scale, so I rate him a bit lower than them. Sure I've seen higher rated horses, but not too many who have stuck around as long as him and given repeated 130+ performances, even at the age of 6. There's always the excuse for a horse packed off to stud at the age of 3 that it didn't get the chance to show what it could do later on. Fans of such horses will say they would've achieved the same if given the chance. I'm sure if Workforce had been packed off to stud after the Arc people would've said the same, but as we saw it didn't prove to be the case. Actually I thought he put up a top performance in defeat in the Eclipse, but he never went on to win again. I think horses that have longer careers at the top should be given credit and to judge them on occasional inevitable defeats is foolish.
By:
Fallen Angel
When: 27 Jul 13 10:57
CDA has been a throughly genuine group 1 performer in the last few seasons. Travelled a lot of miles, champion stakes winner and runner up, Meydan winner, beating St Nic and SYT the performances that stand out for me aswell as a close(ish) performance to Frankel although on ground that would have suited CDA more. Horse has only been out of the top 3 7 times in 38 starts on turf, only reason I think he gets knocked is because the owners like to run him more than other owners of G1's gives him more chances to get beat as well as win.

That being said I am in a quandry about this race, if at 10f I would think it was monster value @6/4 but extra 2f and extra year on the clock are putting me off. If he is off his game I could make a case for virtually every other runner in the race. It's a tough decision between lay and watch for me.
By:
BJT
When: 27 Jul 13 11:29
CDA is the best bet you will ever come across.  Only just beaten by the greatest horse we will ever see, and only because he was overexerted by a horse in there to pressure him out of the race.  Given his proximity to Frankel, who would have no doubt won this race by 25 lengths (on the basis that he always had so much left that he never used) then CDA would be value here at 50 cents in the dollar.  Would be a privilege to lose 50% of your stake just for the chance to back him.  To get 2.60 is the craziest thing I have ever seen.  I have mortgaged my house, sold my cars, even stolen and sold the cars of everybody I know as this is a guarantee.

The horse is a late bloomer.  Only started improving at age 5, and has been for the 21 months since as we saw from his remarkable run against the greatest ever horse to grace the planet just 2 starts ago.

The owners have the second best horse we have ever seen.  No way they would bother putting him in unless he was thriving.  They wouldn't want to tarnish his reputation, and certainly wouldn't want to lower the impression of his amazing record with a never seen before 3 G1 wins...

Not to mention consistency.  I had to check again to see the impressive consistency.  Running in high quality G1s and never finishing out of the top 3 for the last 3 years.  The clowns suggesting there is a chance he could possibly be off his game are out of their minds.

With such overwhelming evidence, he must win this race by at least 10 lengths.  If he goes down here, this will be the strangest thing heard of since some clown mentioned the Earth was round and not flat.  WTF.....

Obvious play is to go all in with everything you have and everything you can steal....... 

I have already sent off a dozen complaint emails about them not already paying out on it.  It certainly is not good enough that they need to wait for the race to run. 








Wink
By:
brigust1
When: 27 Jul 13 11:43
You are obviously joking BJT or writing for the Racing Post.
By:
Millerracing67
When: 27 Jul 13 11:49
What's happened to all this rain that was forecast then?? Plain
Its not very often I would want to see much of the wet stuff for the flat season, but 2day I would have liked to have seen a bit of it for Cirrus in the big 1 & for Cape Peron in the 3yo mile hcap, not soft ground, just good would have been fine for them.
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