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KGQE11 stakes...

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By:
Fallen Angel
When: 24 Jul 13 12:57
yeah there was and the champion hurdle is gold for getting your money back on about 5 different horses. although noting to do with KGQEII, march is generally the most profitable month for me.
By:
Figgis
When: 24 Jul 13 13:06
Fallen Angel, even when a horse has the best past form I simply will not play a 7yo in this type of event.
By:
Fallen Angel
When: 24 Jul 13 13:33
yeah that is fair enough. I really wanted to be laying around the 6/4 mark and we are some distance from that at the moment. Although I will be @ ascot on saturday and am very excited about the race in general having not been to the KG before. One more big race off my list
By:
EastLower Gooner
When: 24 Jul 13 19:33
might chuck something eachway at VeryNiceName.....he's got a fair bit going for him...won't bore everyone some elaborate tale but that was a pretty good renewal of the Sheema Classic.
By:
Fallen Angel
When: 25 Jul 13 09:57
No Ernest Hemingway in the final declarations, 8 to post for the summer showpiece. CDA, Trading leather, Novellist, Ektihaam, Hillstar, Universal, Very nice name, Red Cadeaux
By:
elisjohn
When: 25 Jul 13 10:11
most of us know that e hemingway was a pacemaker etc and knew he was a nr after the sna accident, but this horse was still there to be backed and layed in the 30s, surely coolmore could have told the ordinary racing folk that he wouldn't be running.
By:
sintonian
When: 25 Jul 13 14:07
disagree. People make assumptions all the time about what is running in a race and what isn't. ''Ordinary'' racing folk wouldn't be betting in an ante-post market anyway.
By:
Millerracing67
When: 25 Jul 13 16:10
Not had a play in the Great race 2moro yet. Shame about St Nic & hope he makes a full recovery soon. Ground looks like its going to be on the fast side of gd atm.
Big fan of Cirrus & if back to his best (reports are gd) he will take all the beating.
Not put off by the age thing myself as he lost him "meat balls" some time ago, if he was still an entire he would prob be at stud by now. The stiff 1m4f would be more of a slight concern for me, he is at his very best at 10f on easy ground imo.
The 3yo mid-dist colts over here & Ire are no great shakes by what we have seen so far, so they both have something to find 2moro. Novellist looks the best of the rest, but he also needs to improve on his form & looks in need of softish ground being by Monson that's no surprise.
ALL things considered (imo) Cirrus will take all the beating & hopefully we get a bit of 2s early doors 2moro.
Gd luck with your bets lads. Cool
By:
Millerracing67
When: 25 Jul 13 21:30
Why is the "showboater" kid on Cirrus??? Has Oly been jocked off?? Shocked
By:
brigust1
When: 25 Jul 13 22:03
OP is contracted to ride VNN.

I've already backed CDA with a good saver on Red Cadeaux at big prices.

The only way I see CDA getting beat is if he doesn't stay and the race will be strongly run so he could be found out. He weakened quickly at the end last time and some of his best form is over much shorter even 9f and the French races are seldom run from end to end. The Meydan race he won was run on a flat inner course if I remember and he sprinted clear a long way out then just held on. Ascot will be a different kettle of fish.

If he doesn't stay the rest are a motley bunch. For that reason after looking at the others I think RC has really strong claims.

Through Dunaden he has a good chance of beating Novelist on this faster ground. Trading Leather's form is just not good enough anywhere. Hillstar was beaten by an Ed Dunlop horse the time before last and the Ascot race was pretty poor. PH has decided to go to York so cannot fancy Ektihaam and although Very Nice Name ran a blinder in Meydan the form can often be very tenuous. If it is right he has a chance. That leaves Universal who surely cannot win at this level, shouldn't beat Ektihaam but will set a good pace.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 26 Jul 13 07:48
I have CDA 129 on his best but maybe over 12f might be 5lb lower.

Both Hillstar and Trading Leather I have on 119 after adding on 12 wfa.

Best I have for Red Cadeaux is 115.

I haven't got any big speed figures for Ektihaam yet but going on my speed figures for horses he's beat and run against I would put him on the same as RC.

Universal only a 107 and looks well outclassed.

No ratings for Novellist but Dunaden has a high of 116 so I'd
have to Novellist around 118/119.

I also have no speed figures for Very Nice Name but the Dubai run suggests a 114 if SNA ran to previous figure and Dunaden below best.
By:
Sandown
When: 26 Jul 13 08:06
Stevie G

I can find only one run for CDA  out of 46 where "firm" is in the description (9th/18 Tokyo). Out of 16 wins, 13 have been over less than 12f and those 3 wins over 12+ were on going given as good,vsoft,gs. Like Dawn Approach in the Derby, the risk factor that he won't deliver is very high. He would be odds-on with me if it was 10f on good or softer, but 12f on g/firm? 2/1 definitely doesn't cover it for me.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 26 Jul 13 08:10
not for me either sandown. 12f would be the problem for me, the ground i'm not so concerned about as the stick readings suggest plenty of water has gone on and also he broke the track record in the champion stakes when beating SYT.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 26 Jul 13 08:11
At the prices I'd probably go with Hillstar but I'm going to wait as it's forecast heavy rain for tomorrow now.
By:
Sandown
When: 26 Jul 13 08:17
Yes,agree, the rain could be a game changer.
By:
Roger The Butler
When: 26 Jul 13 08:20
If the forecast is right, it will start raining in Ascot around 11am and keep raining then all day. Over four hours of rain would probably make the ground good to soft come the King George at 3.50pm. Which would be perfect for Cirrus.
By:
Sandown
When: 26 Jul 13 08:35
Roger

Over 4 hrs of rain on watered ground would make it more than g/soft. Swinley Bottom goes very quickly like the rest of the round course.
By:
brigust1
When: 26 Jul 13 08:37
Red Cadeaux has several bits of form good enough to win without CDA. His last run can be ignored because he had been on the go for a while and has had a break. Hillstar's form is dire. Even his win when you look at the 3rd and 4th is horrible. Trading Leather's Irish form similarly through the 3rd and 4th is worse. Is Ektihaam a Group 1 horse? I don't think so and that applies to Universal. That only leaves Novellist and Very Nice Name. Through the Saint Cloud, Sha Tin and King George last year RC has it over Novellist. Very Nice Name could be up to his Meydan form having won several races easily before that. I just don't like Meydan form on its own.

Richard Birch in today's Post said 'Cirrus heads quality field of eight for King George'. What hope is there when the Racing Post prints such shoite?
By:
bazzar
When: 26 Jul 13 09:09
BIGRUST, you are right HILLSTAR form is dire and WILLIAM CARSON has voiced the opinion that this seasons 3yo are not good,
a perusal of the DERBY and OAKS form bears this out, 3 winners from the DERBY since, one was an 8 furlong maiden worth £2000
another won a 4 horse group 3 and the other won a group one over 8 furlongs, all others were well beaten,
in fact BATTLE OF MARENGO beaten by HILLSTAR WHO WAS IN RECEIPT OF 3 LBS, is that form really good enough especially when
Marengo has not proved to be a reliable benchmark?
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 26 Jul 13 09:56
there has never been a 7yo winner of this race and only one aged 6....now you're entitled to ask how many have tried and to question the quality of 3yo and 4yo contesting the race this year. CDA's might have needed his last run but equally might be showing signs of regression, whichever way you look at it, it was not a positive prep race.

I don't like Hillstar's form either and wonder if it crossed SMS's mind to supplement Telescope (particularly after SNA's sad demise...when it was too late of course).

Anyway that's all if,buts and maybes....the two progressive horse for me are Ektihaam and Trading Leather, I actually don't think there is too much wrong with Trading Leather's form apart from arguably the Dante but Nathaniel got beaten in Chester Vase before winning this 2 years ago).

So Trading Leather for me but, as pointed out above, will now have to wait because all his best form is on top of the ground.
By:
Sandown
When: 26 Jul 13 10:07
How much water has been put on? How much rain will fall given a forecast of heavy rain from 1pm tomorrow? Upon the answer to these questions depends the outcome of this race. With no rain, the improving 3yrs TL and Hillstar have their best form on fast ground. With the ground turning to soft, its possible that TL might be withdrawn. Connections paid out £75 for Hillstar to be supplemented so maybe they will let it take its chance if the ground changes.

Without a shadow of doubt, CDA is better with some cut especially having had a ligament injury. But the softer the ground the more his stamina will be tested. Novellist is a Monsun colt proven on soft ground at G1. He beat CDA fair and square although CDA is never at his best FTO. With Murtagh booked, this horse looks cast iron to run a big race especially with soft ground and no stamina doubt.

Red Cadeaux is a crazy price and at 50/1 it takes nothing to cover on him.Ekithaam and Universal are unknowns at G1 level whilst Very Nice Name has done his winning on Meydan good ground.

The market is currently built on the premise of fast ground. All that could change in an instant with the rain.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 26 Jul 13 10:20
quick look at latest Metcheck forecast suggests negligible rain at Ascot before 4.0 pm tomorrow (0.2mm before 4pm and then 0.4mm between 4pm and 7pm).

Heavy stuff not forecast to arrive until tomorrow night.

Will keep checking.
By:
Sandown
When: 26 Jul 13 10:22
Course forecast and BBC forecast both say heavy rain from 1pm Sat.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 26 Jul 13 10:36
yep, I've seen BBC one - find it amazing given technology available now that forecasts can vary so much depending on service provider, also wonder if they are measured on the accuracy of their forecasts.

I prefer the metcheck one solely because it is more detailed.

Anyway, in danger of turning this into a weather threat....frustrating when you're studying form although can't complain too much as we've had a good run of stability with the weather recently.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 26 Jul 13 10:40
I won't be striking any bets on the race until much nearer the off. I'm not gambling on the weather.
By:
Figgis
When: 26 Jul 13 10:41
mac99
To my mind the most impressive   twelve furlong performance of the year  so far was put up by Ektihaam    in the Buckhound stakes at Ascot in May


You and me both, Mac. I think probably the main reason the performance didn't get the credit it deserved was the time was barely faster than Angel Gabrial's race earlier. I still maintain that strict time comparisons between races on the same card, even over the same distance can sometimes put you away. There are many good hidden time performances in a season and I think this could be one of them. I've watched the video a few times and I'm simply not having that it was a slowly run race. A change in the wind can significantly affect times between one race and the next but on this day the round course was throwing up divots everywhere, despite the official description, and I think it's plausible that the ground had slowed between races. He's no Harbinger but I've rated him equal to that other Stoute horse Conduit, who won a typical running of this race.

If he's as good as I think he is then the only runner that worries me as a danger is Trading Leather, who I have on an equal rating with his wfa allowance. My major concern with him is that to my eyes he had a pretty hard race in the Irish Derby. I see that Bolger says he's improved but I'm not sure we can take much notice of that. In my view, when trainers make statements about horses with public form their judgement about the horse's well being is rarely as good as when they've readied one for a private gamble.

As an outside punter it's difficult to know when a horse is over the top. All I can base it on is times they've put up and my judgement of hard races. Sometimes this means missing out on a winner, but as long as I get it right more than wrong I believe it's worth trying to take into account. Many horses run below par in races every day so I don't think it's a factor that should be ignored. The pundits will make excuses about ground, handicapper catching up, etc, but on many occasions the horse just isn't physically up to it on the day.

At least that isn't a worry with Ektihaam. I backed him at Royal Ascot and we all know what happened there, but it means he's still a fresh horse for this race.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 26 Jul 13 10:43
I remember it poured down during Angel Gabrial's race figgis.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 26 Jul 13 10:58
I had Thomas Chippendale running 113 at Royal Ascot. How near he ran to that figure against Ektihaam I don't know as he was very keen in the early on in that race. At sandown before that there had only been a neck between them. I do think Ektihaam improved from the sandown run stepping up to 12f but not sure by how much. He's the hardest horse in the race to rate for me.
By:
Figgis
When: 26 Jul 13 10:59
Yes, Stevie, I also reckon the ground started nearer good than the official good to firm description. I have the ground slowing by approx .20 sec per furlong between the 2 races. Ok, that is purely judgement based, but let's face it, that's what all of us are using when we're compiling figures.
When going against the obvious time evidence there are occasions when I'll be completely wide of the mark, this could be one of them, but overall I know the rewards outweigh the mistakes.
By:
Figgis
When: 26 Jul 13 11:04
Stevie, yes it's very possible that in the event the race didn't take much winning, the others below par and it wasn't as good as I've rated. I've just based it on what I thought visually of the performance and Ektihaam's past figures. I can't say I always thought he'd develop into a Gp1 animal but the potential was always there, so it's no surprise and the gelding could've brought about the extra improvement.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 26 Jul 13 11:07
well if I used your 0.2 difference then I'd have Ektihaam on 122 for that race with TC on 111. it's possible although given how keen TC was early on I think i'd go with 0.15 diff and make it a 115 for EK.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 26 Jul 13 11:14
sorry I actually have a 120 stored on the RP for that race with TC on 109. It didn't load up on the racing post before but it's there now. I cant remember how I came to that figure though
By:
Figgis
When: 26 Jul 13 11:25
As I said to Pedrobob on another thread, I'm not entirely comfortable putting my ratings into the official scale but at an attempt my Ektihaam rating is around 129. Even when CDA was in his prime I would have him on 132.
By:
Figgis
When: 26 Jul 13 11:28
That would be using a similar scale to Timeform, BHA is lower.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 26 Jul 13 11:29
I like mine on the official scale as most of my bets are in hcaps and I like to quickly see how much a horse has in hand of his mark. The main reason I started doing speed figures was because I struggled with 3yo hcaps. But now I'm finding lots of good bets in them.
By:
Figgis
When: 26 Jul 13 11:39
Yes, I can see the benefit of that. I just think that the difference between an average horse and a top class horse is hugely exaggerated on those scales.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 26 Jul 13 11:47
well i'm not so sure about that Figgis. I remember a horse Young  Buster about 20 years ago, a listed class horse running off 10st  on a mark of 116 and I remember thinking no chance off that mark but he finished a good 3rd.
By:
Figgis
When: 26 Jul 13 11:55
I remember the horse but not the particular race. The thing about weight is it can be given away more easily in races not run at a true gallop. One thing I am sure of is that a Gp1 horse doesn't run 60lbs faster than a 70 rated animal, even when both races are run in optimum fashion.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 26 Jul 13 12:01
well my figures suggest a 100 horse would place in a listed race. a 115 horse would be good enough to place in an average G1 race. Yes probably if I had been doing speed figures back then, Young buster would probably have not got that big a rating. As you say the weight not making as much difference in slower run race.

anyway going off topic again. so think I may add in Ektihaam to Hillstar and small bet Red Cadeaux but waiting on weather.
By:
Figgis
When: 26 Jul 13 12:20
I have Hillstar 5lbs behind Trading Leather, although as I said I have doubts about TL running his race. It's not impossible Hillstar could make that improvement but the style of his win didn't seem to me that he had anything in hand. I suppose it depends on whether you think he was inconvenienced by coming from so far back, I thought they quickened up soon enough for it not to hinder him. You can't always tell from races, though, whether one will improve or not, he might actually make physical improvement.
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