Swagger, I was impressed with Treve, although I don't think she achieved any more than she was entitled to beforehand. She was the best in the race on today's terms and beat the second best, Wild Coco, just as she ought to have. It depends if you think she was inconvenienced by the way the race panned out and could've won easier, or if you think it actually made the win appear more spectacular, I'm inclined to lean to the latter. She's obviously in the mix but I'm not rushing to back her.

The races have gone pretty much as expected with Flintshire not liking the ground and Treve and Orfevre winning with ease. Personally I liked the fillies performance best, the way she picked off Wild Coco with ease was most impressive.

Yes Swagger, Kizuna should be better on fast too, but these Japanese horses that come over do seem to go very well on soft even though they might have looked like fast ground horses back home. Ruler of the World probably wants it on the soft side so he'd be suited by the ground staying as it is. I'm pretty sure Orfevre and Treve are poor value now, but less sure what to back against them.

Was more impressed with ROTW than Flintshire -showed good pace at the finish despite having to be switched early in the straight.

I think it's simply the class of the Japanese horses which enables them to act adequately on soft/heavy ground. In my opinion the likes of Deep Impact, Kizuna and Orfevre are all much more effective on faster ground which makes Orfevre's run last year all the more impressive especially being drawn in the car park

Given how Orfevre nearly defied a poor draw,heavy ground and perhaps the jockey kicking for home too soon last year, he looks the one to beat to me. 4/1, based on his prep and last years race looks fair. It is a strong Arc but this horse is a beast.

Did not like the way he gave the race away last year & is a horse who has "bleed" in the past is he not?? Very smart horse for sure & "if" all is well with him & he runs true to the line, he has a great shout.
But those doubts still remain about him for me.

I see few mentions of Novellist, yet his King George run was just as good if not better than any other form on offer. His last run was ok enough as a stepping stone to the Arc. Using Trading Leather as a yardstick he has the beating of Ruler Of The World and the other 3 year old colts. I don't know how he has drifted did we learn anything today that we didn't already know? Apart from maybe Kizuna who looks on a par with our own 3 year olds.

Yet another with a solid chance (Novellist) May have been a liitle bit flattered by the KG form imo. Trading Leather took a very keen hold in the first part of the race & ran a few pounds below his best imo. But, Novellist goes to the Arc with a strong chance & is one of the front few in the betting.

Fabulous race on the cards with, ground permitting, a really strong field but, although not financially involved, I really hope Orfevre wins it handsomely.

This year it looks up to scratch.

Treve still could be anything

Orfevre was unlucky last year and seems to be over his problems okay, he is another worthy contender.

Novelist still has the best form. Although he acts on soft his very best effort was on quick ish going. Agree that Trading Leather may have slightly under performed at Acot. However Novelist won by miles and smashed the track record. He is value at current odds IMO.

Funny how the markets over react. Flintshire is a case in point. He was too short on the back of his last win in a slow run race. He is now far too long after he did not act on soft going today. He should be a few points shorter but you can wait till the day to back him if he goes.

Intello has been backed for the champion stakes and he is unlikely to stay well enough to win the Arc IMO.

I love the Arc, the best race in the world. Unlike the breeders cup farce, where the races are run round dog tracks, and horses that win are the ones who generally react best to the legal doping regimes, the Arc is a real race.

Only thing about the Japanese middle distance turf horses....so far when they've been put to the test vs European competition away from the far east they've crack....El Condor Pasa (Arc), Nakayama Festa (Arc), Tap Dance City (Arc), Deep Impact (Arc), Zenno Rob Roy (International Stakes), Hearts Cry (King George), Orfevre (Arc) and Gentildonna (Sheema Classic).

But two nice horses nevertheless....one of them will need to really step up on the day.

____


Novellist will be a very decent price on the day. Japanese will be lumping on Kizuna & Orfevre while the locals will go for Treve.

EastLower Gooner
15 Sep 13 17:07

Novellist will be a very decent price on the day. Japanese will be lumping on Kizuna & Orfevre while the locals will go for Treve.

Very wise words for anyone thinking of backing Irish, English or German horses.

These guys again ---->

http://youtu.be/-AXgGuInYOY

That will be you this year ELG although you won't even get any buzz out of a close finish after Novellist disappoints at the one pace

The great thing about Orfevre's trial is that he never had to work hard at all. That is exactly what you want in a prep. I don't care how slow it was in comparision to the others. Treve had to make a big effort in her race to catch Wild Coco.

could'nt win the race last time,
this looks a much stronger renewell.

The percentage call is to wait until NRNB rather than play A/P now, especially at the front end of the market

1.The going can only be good at best and most likely soft given yesterday's ground, but who can say for sure?

2. The draw has a huge part to play.

3. It can't be better than 1.3 that any horse will avoid injury/be supplemented/not diverted and actually get there which means for example 4.7 today equals 3.6 on the day.Why bother with the risk?

4. Last 2 winners SP's were 20/1 & 33/1 -  neither were impossible to find.


5. The trials were inconclusive in any event as far as isolating a clear cut favourite is concerned so the market is bound to fluctuate before Oct 6

And whilst i'm on a rant, something should be done about trainers entering no hopers in particular races such as the Arc. I don't usually believe in restrictions, but this could corrupt the race. We've seen recently that poisonous little elf, Aidan O'Brien enter horses to try and scare off opposition, or alternatively hope the oppoisition don't turn up( DOW and Camelot who wasn't even in France). What if some of these no hopers get the good draw to try and stop better horses getting them ? Leading Light wouldn't win the arc if he started today, and you can bet your last buck that if things get messy it won't be one of the Balldydoyle horses he blocks.

Treve is the one from the trials that has me the most worried (as a Novellist fan). I know it was only Wild Coco but still....that was a rather impressive turn of foot to get out of trouble...a bit like Zarkava when she weaved past Vision DEtat before exploding down the outside....I also get the feeling with her that she could be one of the few who still hasn't shown her true potential and possibly capable of a lot more.

Can't knock Orfevre and I wouldn't be too upset if he won considering what happened last year.

Flintshire will be pricewise if the ground dries out....Seem to recall a certain Bago being odds on and getting beat on soft ground in the Prix Neil before powering home on better ground in the Arc. So I still wouldn't right him off....big horse too so would've needed that run after a break.

All in all a great race....btw I topped up on some of that 200s for Leading Light in the Melbourne Cup. The weights are out later tonight and  I just wonder if the rumours of him being supplemented for Longchamp might just be a bit of gamesmanship with the hcapper there....well at the price bought it was worth a poke. No harm.