I just checked the weather forecast for Paris. Completely dry for the next 5 days. Anyone assuming it will be even on the soft side may be making a mistake.

If it was actually good going or even faster, the price on Flintshire would be far too long. Orfevre does look a worthy favourite, but I would personally want at least 4/1 at this stage as much can happen to him between now and the race.

Of course it was good going, I reckon The Fugue would be interesting as she is a 126+ filly meaning a horse would have to be at least 132 to beat her well.

Either way, the soft ground trials would have rather less meaning unless the weather turns or the taps are turned on to keep the going soft.

Sandown, is that proper soft or French soft?

if you can believe it or not,f'cast
over Paris up til Arc day,think
there's about 6 days of showers,
don't look heavy either.Quit a bit
of sunshine.

Nice to hear that forecast even nicer if it stays dry for the next three weeks. I appreciate it's a big if. Given that the home team's best chances of winning rest with Flintshire and Treve I doubt we will see much watering.

Flintshire has been campaigned as Fabre's number one Arc contender since he won his first Group race. Intello might have a chance in the Champion because the trip is closer to his optimum but he still has plenty to prove wherever he turns up. If it is good ground for the Arc he doesn't beat Flintshire and if it is soft that will in all likelihood expose any suspect stamina. Even if he wins his trial I wouldn't be rushing to back him.

Last time I checked oddschecker bookmakers hadn't cut much so seemingly not too worried about the Pricewise selection.

French going descriptions are well known to overstate the moisture in the ground compared to our descriptions, this happens throughout the year, not just on Arc day. Whether a trainer like Fabre has much faith in the descriptions before committing one of his runners or uses his own judgement I don't know.

Well, for a change the ground perfectly matched the description on trials day, it's not something I'd care to bet on but with over 2 weeks to go I see no reason why the ground couldn't be good for Arc day, which should offer no excuse for any runner.

Flintshire is pricewise

I have the first race over 5f as good to soft, then the rest as soft, but we're talking marginal differences and it depends where you draw the line for each going category. I don't know for sure, but I'm doubtful that just because the ground was soft for trials day then it's unlikely to be better for Arc day when they're 3 weeks apart? Especially as those trials day descriptions could be just as inaccurate as the Arc day descriptions. Couldn't it just as easily be said that as the going for the last 10 years has only genuinely been soft twice then it's more likely it will be no softer than good? As you say, the weather in the week leading up will decide.

6 year aftertime but to generally concur French going descriptions are rubbish.
The day Dylan Thomas won his Arc I rough and readied the early times to get an idea of what the ground was actually like in the hope that it was running fast.

When you consider how tough this game is info like that is priceless.

With regard predicting the going, the racing the day before helps but there's no substitute for reliable info from on the day so trying to use historical precedent 3 weeks in advance seems a bit tenuous to me, but fair do's for attempting to work it out.

Yes, jair, as I have very little faith in their descriptions then I don't think we're going to get a proper idea until the racing the day before, while obviously taking note of the current weather.

If you are only interested in one person's viewpoint wouldn't it be easier just to send personal messages?

On a line through Ocovango you could have Flintshire as the winner of the Niel on good ground, anything more than that is down to opinion.

Graeme, yes, but French description 'good to soft' can often be anything from good to firm to good. Would he run Flintshire on French 'good to soft' = our good? Personally I have no idea.

I can't have a bet yet because -
horse might be a non-runner
don't know what else runs
don't know the going
don't know the draw
bookie odds don't appeal

2011 was a record breaking year with Danedream. Plum draw, quick ground. Ideal conditions. Last year however it was like the Somme.

good grief no one can forecast how much rain ,sun Paris will get between now and race day.Its clear all the Flintshire backers on this thread are choosing to belive Paris will have an indian summer this year get a grip and open your eyes read the form not guessing and hoping.

I backed Manndawi at 84/1. He was well done by Flintshire in the Grand Prix, though he does have a high carriage. He runs today at St Cloud, and i imagine that if he wins the odds will go. If he is good enough he would be one of few who would handle proper soft ground.

Not Claude Duval - whatever the French guy on RUK's name is.

With regards to the so called weather predictions for the next 3wks, they are normally wrong with their "5 day" forecasts for the coming wk, never mind what its going to be in 3wks time on Arc day . Wait & see is the call imo.

In the last 25 years these were slower than Solemia's 2:37.68.
Two are considered legends.
1992 ___ Subotica ___ 2:39.00
1993 ___ Urban Sea ___ 2:37.90
1999 ___ Montjeu ___ 2:38.50


These were close
1988 ___ Tony Bin ___ 2:37.30
2001 ___ Sakhee ___ 2:36.10

even that time was bettered the year
after,Trempolino,if I'm right.