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*Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2013*
*Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2013*
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Apparantly, Pricewise picks the winner on Thursday. That will be interesting as Flintshire is the one to beat on good but probably doesn't run if it is soft. I notice in the trial Ruler Of The World and Kizuna were happy to give him a two length and four length start - it be lovely to see them try and do similar on a faster surface. The obvious call is to actually wait until much closer to the race when you will have an idea of the weather and the number of runners/draw. That should be the advice but he will no doubt have to pick something that has a chance on either surface. The current worst value appears to be Boyle's 6/1 Ruler Of The World who has no chance on good ground and will probably get lost in the pack even on his favoured softer surface.
As for Treve we haven't seen Wild Coco very often but she is probably genuine Group 1 on her favoured ground. Certainly not the sort of horse you want to give an eight length start to in a relatively slowly run race. You have be impressed with that change of pace but Dettori will need a massive amount of luck if he doesn't get a better position in the Arc. |
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The Arc is my favourite race of the year and it has been by miles my biggest earner but this year I'm in a state of uncertainty.I won't be playing before the day/NRNB but even so it looks difficult. I need the draw, jockey bookings and ground to move into a more certain frame of mind.
Orfevre. Has top figs, looks as good as last year BUT the stats for 5yrs are just 3 winners in the past 53 years.Unlucky loser last year but repeat runners record poor.Will be backed on PM. Novellist. V.good figs, goes on any ground, BUT King George winners have v.poor record in Arc.Probably same/better price on day given connections Treve. Looks top class against own sex BUT she will be dwarfed by Orfevre - how will she fare against colts and older horses in tough race, especially if hold-up tactics employed? Will be well supported no doubt on day. Kizuna. Surprise package and goes on soft BUT figs someway behind.Needs to improve a lot.Will be shorter price than chance on PM. Flintshire. Won't run if soft. Chances of ground being fast enough well odds against. Wait for the day. If he runs then he has a good chance still.Will likely drift until running plans known. Ruler of The World. Back to his best BUT has to improve a lot to win.Won't shorten much if at all. Al Kazeem. Not had optimum prep for this but big price now given figs and liking for soft/12f. Intello. Could run but is he a 12f horse? Still has to improve to win.Unlikely to run. Leading Light. Stays, handles soft but form someway behind whats needed, but could run well.Could well be supplemented given Cooolmore's need for runner in race. Ocovango. Not good enough, but could run. The Fugue. Won't run on likely ground. What is intriguing is what Coolmore/ Godolphin will have. Can't see the Arc being run without at least one runner from each camp. |
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Boring but I fancy Orfevre to win this well. I think he's an absolute beast and whilst I respect the likes of Treve, Kizuna and Intello (if he runs), stats aside Orfevre will show the world what a monster he is in three weeks. One could argue that he basically won the race last year (bar all the obvious points like travelling 10 wide, drawn in the car park, running much further than the winner, running on bottomless ground when bred for better ground etc) so regarding stats what are they for repeat winners?
What he has going for him above Treve and Kizuna is that he can be ridden anywhere, doesn't need to be held up and produced late and for that reason alone, i would find it hard to see him being caught this year. Also, it was interesting reading what the trainer said after Sunday's race that he has worked hard on ensuring the horse doesn't worry/pull himself up when in the clear as he did last year but actually uses his ability to continually quicken. Arguably we still don't know how good he is if he puts everything into a race from a fair draw on decent ground. From a financial perspective I would win a lot more if Kizuna wins but I would prefer to Orfevre to hack up, just think it would be great for racing |
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Soumillon"Orfevre is the most fabulous horse of my career"
Shozo Sasaki(Kizuna)"This is quite a horse he was 80% iam looking forward to carring 2kg less in the arc" |
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One note of caution which other time students might like to consider. The offic1al final times are slower than my times which indicates that French race times are not started on stalls opening, as are ours. Secondly, the finishing splits suggest that the time ratings given are too high because otherwise the final splits have to be rated higher than in my experience it is possible even for top class horses to do. All that means is that the trials are utterly useless from a form perspective as they were nothing other than sprints to the line.
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time ratings given are too high - Top Speed ratings that is, which are in any event slow - Kizuna 77, Treve 76, Orfevre 34.
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As someone who only plays one horse in the race, not that I always have a bet in it, I think this year's race is much easier than most. In many years the best horse in the race doesn't have the best preparation. Of course horses like Sea The Stars and Dylan Thomas still manage to win despite having busy campaigns, but it complicates matters, as there are many occasions when such horses perform well below par, Generous is just one example of many.
Novellist's King George form is obviously decent but I reckon it's been overrated as those behind all ran below their very best on the day. Much was made of the fast time but when taking conditions into account it wasn't outstanding, I'd rate Novellist about the same horse as Al Kazeem at his best. Al Kazeem's form has taken a dip, excuses have been made about the ground, but as he got good ground at Leopardstown, much slower ground than his best efforts in the POW and Eclipse, then those excuses look even flimsier than they did when they were made. The 3yos all need to improve. The best horse in the race is Orfevre, he's also had the best preparation for the race and is the one I'm backing. |
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Figgis
Couldn't argue with that analysis. It would be foolish to leave Orfevre out of the equation but I have no doubt that the WFA scale favours 3yr olds this time of year over 12f(won over 66% of races last 53 years). Also, my draw stats tell me that you have a 50% better chance than expected if drawn 1-8 and 50% worse chance if drawn 13+. As Orfevre found to its cost last year (got laid 1.03 in running so won on race). |
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Sandown
I believe the wfa scale is too generous in mid summer over 12f, maybe it evens out with averages, I wouldn't know, but I do know that when a top class 3yo comes along those wfa terms are very difficult to overcome for a top class older horse. I think 8lbs is just about right at this time of year. Maybe averages favour the 3yos but, for me, that's due to the influence of other factors, like some 3yos still improving whereas a lot of the older horses have already been trained to peak earlier in the year. None of these 3yos are within 8lbs of an in form Orfevre. I agree the draw has an influence but I'd only be worried if it concerned horses that were evenly matched. I think it was just the ground that did for Orfevre last year. In hindsight Soumillon would've been better playing him later but he couldn't have known that beforehand. I also think it was one of those heavy ground freak results where the winner performed out of its skin on the ground on the day. Of course, the ground could be heavy again but Soumillon will be a bit wiser this time. Also, as Orfevre is now a 5yo he might've even improved a couple of pounds, not that he needs to. |
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Francis Keogh @HonestFrank 7s
Racing news courtesy of trainer @RogerCharlton. Al Kazeem will be aimed at Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. James Doyle to ride |
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I think Charlton has been saying all year that he wants AK to run in the Arc - it will be his best ever shot at winning it and if the ground comes up soft he has a chance that will be nearer to 10.0 than 25.0.
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'None of these 3yo's is within 8lbs of Orfevre'
That is surely only a biased opinion rather than anything based on factual evidence? Orfevre didn't actually win what looked a sub-standard Arc and was subsequently beaten in a Japan Cup. His two wins this season I would suggest don't tell us a great deal more. He was well positioned to take care of a very ordinary bunch in his trial. The Prix Foy was by far and away the weakest of the three trials and for me the market has overreacted which is often the case when you get a visually impressive winner. Unless there are several withdrawals he has to improve on his effort last season and that is by no means certain. |
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Al Kazeem has been running over his optimum trip through the season. He has one piece of form over the longer trip but that was a slowly run speed test which obviously suited him perfectly. Connections are having one last role of the dice but can't see him either being good enough or staying the trip well enough to be competitive.
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That is surely only a biased opinion rather than anything based on factual evidence?
Well, it's an opinion, which is, after all, what we're all basing our betting on. I wouldn't say it was any more biased or lacking factual evidence than this statement. That will be interesting as Flintshire is the one to beat on good |
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I'm waiting til I see I what the ground is and the draw but at this stage I'd have to be with Treve. To pick up a horse like Wild Coco and go past her in the way she did off quite a steady pace marks her down as an exceptional 3yo filly and with the allowances she gets in the Arc then for me she is clearly the one to beat.
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When I have the opportunity and time I like to price up a race. For me, its a good discipline, and takes the focus off finding the winner to finding value. My take is that Orfevre, Treve are a bit under-priced (as you'd expect) ROTW is well under-priced,that Novellist is about the price I'd expect, Kizuna is a bit over-priced and AK and Flintshire are well over-priced for the obvious reasons.
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I think anything above 2/1 for Orfevre is value.
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On the day , its a possibility if conditions are right and maybe one or even two non-runners, but now, don't think so Figgis. You are far more confident than me at this stage to make any horse that short.
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Sandown
When the best horse has had the best preparation, given luck in running, then it's a formidable combination, as a number of those considered worthy opponents just won't fire on the day. |
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I think that if anyone does fancy Novellist(or any longer shots) that the market on the PMU will be the place to play on the day, can easily see the French piling into Treve and the Japanese backing their two horses.
I could easily see 3.2 Treve, 3.5 Orfevre, 5.0 Kizuma and 12s bar |
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Beat Meandre a length, got beaten by Solemia, got beaten by Gentildonna, then has just 2 runs in 6 months, not certain to be battle-hardened for the big day by any means, spent a long time this season on the sidelines...very surprised Orfevre is trading at 4.5.
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whats people's opinion on the size of the field this year.
fancy it might be a smallish turn out myself,perhaps around a dozen runners. |
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All the 4/1 about Orfevre long gone now and is still being backed today.
Differentdrum, when Orfevre got beaten in the Japan Cup he was again given a poor draw and only just failed. A monumental effort given the race he put in in the Arc!. Since then he has come out and won over 10f on Firm. Orfevre should be unbeaten around Longchamp really, 121, hopefully another 1 in 3 weeks. |
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Why is having an interrupted campaign due to a broken blood vessel followed by an easy win in a very uncompetitive trial deemed to be 'the best preparation'? I wouldn't be overly confident as to what will happen when he has to up his game in a proper race.
If Flintshire gets his ground he will be half the price he is now - he was very short for the Niel despite the very negative vibes from Fabre - but clearly you can't risk anything at the moment. |
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an easy win in a very uncompetitive trial
Self explanatory. |
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Orfevre may be the market mover at the moment but this is the type of market where everything in with a chance will respond to some bit of news - a great gallop, a problem, a new entrant, trainer form etc etc. Expect there to be a lot of movement, all of it meaningless. What the public knows is one thing, what connections know is another. Anyway, for them this is not about prices, its prestige & breeding. News from Coolmore and or Gdolphin wwill have an effect. then there will be the draw effect. Maybe the Japanese will get stuck in with British BM's as they did in Deep Impacts year. there are a lot more twist & turns to come.
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Last year there were 18 runners. By the looks of it at the moment, with no new injuries, could be 12 or 13. Orfevre drawn in 18 last year with the winner in 6.
Just looked at the form of his defeat to Gentildonna, btw, a horse who had won it's previous 4 starts including 3 Group 1's and was also runner-up to SNA in Dubai back in March. Hardly poor form is it? |
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he might well win but looks poor value to me,
best price 7/2 on the book atm-started 5/1 last year if I'm right,in a weaker race. |
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Figgis
I think anything above 2/1 for Orfevre is value. Just pondering this statement and its left me wondering. For 2/1 to be value you must think Orfevre's chance to be at least 6/4. In which case, for Trev, Kizuna,AK,Novellist, Flintshire you would have them at say evens as a group ( an average of 9/1) with all others combined at 9/1. Are you really that confident? |
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Sandown
I don't price up the whole field, so I wouldn't claim to be accurate about pricing up the rest individually. You have far more experience of that so I'm sure you're better at it. I can, though, pretty much gauge the estimated true price of a horse I fancy based on past results in similar situations and the confidence I have in it at the time. Obviously it doesn't work every time but it will over a whole season. Your 6/4 is exactly the price I had in mind about his chances, and that's probably being on the cautious side. It's not that I think he has a vast amount in hand, just a few pounds, but the important thing is he's highly likely to run his race, I can't say the same for the others. |
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Sandown
Of those horses you mention, I think Al Kazeem and Novellist could give him a race if they're on song but I expect him to have the beating of them. It has to be doubtful that those two will be at their peak anyway, particularly Al Kazeem as his form has already taken a downward turn. Treve has looked very good, she doesn't have loads to find but she still needs to improve, possible but unlikely, in my view. I don't really know about Kizuna as I don't know about his Japanese form, the race on Sunday didn't reveal much apart from him being alright off a slowish pace, if he wins it's just one of those results I take on the chin, I couldn't even think of backing him. As for Flintshire, I think he's been all style over substance so far. His times have been very poor, not the horse's fault, but the horses he's beaten have been moderate to say the least. He could do no more than win those races easily and you have to respect him because of the trainer so I've kept an open mind that we may not have seen the best of him. His performance on Sunday did nothing to improve my opinion of him. I know the soft ground could be a valid excuse, he might prove he's top class on decent ground, but I'd never back a horse in a race like the Arc with the ordinary form he has to his name, if he wins so be it. |
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Not had a play in the Great race yet & wont do until the all important ground & draw are taken into account. Treve & Orfevre both looked gd in the trials & posses that great turn of foot, but if it came up heavy ground again this year, it then makes it more of a slog & not sure that would suit them.
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Could we have an Arc without any runners from Coolmore,Godolphin, Aga Khan, Khalid Abdulla?
Will Coolmore rely just on ROTW? Is he even certain to run? Could they run either Camelot or Leading Light? It would be more likely for them to run more than one rather than none but given that they seem to think Camelot doesn't want soft ground then LL must be a possible runner. What else is there for him? BC? don't think so. He has stamina and handles soft. May not be fast enough but forceful tactics could see him thereabouts especially if it comes up really soft. Stayers have had success in the past. Go back to Alleged,Levmoss, Sassafras, Urban Sea. Even if he only placed they would have improved stallion prospects. Nothing to lose I would have thought, so why not if the horse is OK.Watch this space. Godolphin look to have nothing this year. Sky Hunter is the only one in the betting at 34.0 assuming Vancourite is out.Could they buy themselves a runner? If so, which one, I wonder? The Aga has Manndawi entered, form which ties in with Flintshire.Hardly good enough unless a change of ground would do the trick. K.Abdulla has Flintshire who won't run if it comes up soft. The chances of it coming up anything other than on the soft side are not good but its not impossible. Also, no runners from Niarchos family. Its all change now with Japanese owners (Orfevre, Kizuna), German owners (Novellist, Intello), and new Arab owners (Treve, Ocavango)to the fore. Are we witnessing a changing of the guard? |
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Must add Fabre to the list of possible absentees. An Arc without a Fabre runner? Surely not. He has Flintstone, Intello, Ocavango,Sky Hunter. Surely one at least must run? Intello is the forgotten horse. It was a surprise that Fabre dropped him back to 8f but I don't believe that I have read anything to say that he doen't regard him as a horse capable of getting 12f. His breeding (Montjeu out of a Danehill mare) says he can, he has speed and he handles soft ground well enough (won on heavy). Can he be a surprise runner for Fabre?
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orrection. Intello is a Galileo
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Would be very surprised if Ocovango did not run. He is not that far behind ROTW on Epsom form where he was a little unlucky in-running.
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Fabre doesn't train Sky Hunter any more and Intello is French-owned. Intello runs on Saturday at Longchamp then goes Arc if all well. Triple Threat is one of the other Fabre horses in the mix...quite why I don't know as he bombed in the Niel. Manndawi should come on a bundle for mud and, along with Penglai Pavillion, is my idea of a horse who can gatecrash this party. Niarchos will be hoping Bravodino can still throw his hat in the ring, although the Chaudenay looks like where he'll end up.
Godolphin's best chance is probably with Lost In The Moment if he absolutely bolts up on Sunday, which is a shambles really. |
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I think I read today that Triple Threat will be aimed at the Champion Stakes. Trip suits better.
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Headmaster, you`re expecting a few supplementations.
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Headmaster
Thanks for your corrections- only to be expected I guess  |