Horse Antepost
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2013 Epsom Derby
2013 Epsom Derby
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Shrews
Are you going to start a thread for the 2014 Derby? Your systems analysis on the 2013 race was a great read. |
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Basically no, I've already got the winner
 I had a look at the following some time ago (not sure who they are now, although the Galileo horse is Australia) As before I tried to get them to fit the dosage 'range profile' Brilliant - 4 to 8 Intermediate - 0 to 2 Classic - 7 to 16 Solid - 3 to 6 Professional - 0 to 1 DI - 0.78 to 1.44 CD - -0.04 to 0.46 Although Ruler Of The World was 9-0-21-8-0-1.05-0.26, which sort of blew that out of the park.  Nevertheless, I give it another go for a bit of fun00belesta Montjeu 2 2 12 4 0 1 0.1 00dibenoise Montjeu 2 0 10 4 0 0.78 0 00honorlina Montjeu 3 0 9 4 0 0.88 0.13 00hulaangel Montjeu 8 3 15 4 0 1.61 0.5 00jewelinthesand Montjeu 3 2 11 4 0 1.11 0.2 00lastingchance Montjeu 3 1 10 4 0 1 0.17 00lovemetrue Montjeu 8 0 22 8 0 1 0.21 00marquesa Montjeu 6 0 16 8 0 0.88 0.13 00ouijaboard Galileo 3 1 8 4 0 1 0.19 The 3 below fitted the figures but only Geoffrey Chaucer looks a likely runner. John Constable Montjeu 6 2 13 5 0 1.26 0.35 Geoffrey Chaucer Montjeu 7 1 12 4 0 1.4 0.46 Affairs Of State Montjeu 7 0 13 4 0 1.29 0.42 |
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I think you have.
 Geoffrey Chaucer (2011) is out of Helsinki (1993) by Machiavellian (1987). Helsinki is out of Helen Street (1982) by Troy (1976). Geoffrey Chaucer’s sire Montjeu, has sired Derby winners Motivator; Authorized; Pour Moi; Camelot. What is interesting to me is Geoffrey Chaucer’s dam, Helsinki, is the dam of Shamardal, winner of 6 of 7 races. Shamardal won the Vintage Stakes (Group 2); Dewhurst (Gr 1); Poule d’Essai des Poulains (French 2000 Guineas)(Gr 1); Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby)(Gr 1); St James’s Palace Stakes (Gr 1). His one failure was on dirt in Dubai. Shamardal is also successful as a sire. Shamardal’s son Lope De Vega won the Poule d’Essai des Poulains (French 2000 Guineas)(Gr 1) and Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby)(Gr 1). Other Group 1 winners by Shamardal are Casamento (in England); Sagawara (in France); Crackerjack King; Zazou; Amaron (in Italy). Geoffrey Chaucer’s dam Helsinki’s is also a full sibling of sire Street Cry, sire of Group 1 winners Lyric Of Light; Majestic Roi; Zenyatta; Seventh Street; Street Boss; Street Sense; New Year’s Day; Cry And Catch Me; Victor’s Cry. There is plenty of class in the pedigree. (I haven’t had a bet.) |
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interesting views on geoffrey chaucer, sounds like worthy outsider, BERKSHIRE what about that ones chances on the dosage profiles and
breeding ect, TIA |
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BERKSHIRE
Brilliant - 2 (Only 1 winner in the last 11 has scored less than 4, Sir Percy 1) Intermediate - 1 (ok) Classic - 3 (No winners in the last 11 scored 5 or less, Sir Percy 5) Solid - 0 (Only 1 winner in the last 11 has scored 0, Sea The Stars) Professional - 0 (ok) Dosage Index - 3 (Only 1 winner in the last 11 has scored more than 1.44, Sea The Stars 3) Centre Of Distribution -0.83 (Only 2 winners in the last 11 have scored negative points, Pour Moi -0.04 and Sir Percy -0.5) It doesn't look a typical Derby winner based on Dosage over the last 11 years 2 1 3 0 0 3 0.83 |