Horse Antepost
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 724 comments are related to the topic:
2013 Epsom Derby
2013 Epsom Derby
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 724
|
By:
argosy
02 Jun 13 14:18 Joined: 01 May 03 | Topic/replies: 111 | Blogger: argosy's blog hc I have to say I disagree with you re the Coolmore domination. Godolphin own New Approach and there is every indication that he could be as prepotent as Galileo. NA has got the top 2yo and 2,000 Guineas winner -Dawn Approach: The Oaks winner Talent and the Dante winner and Derby second Libertarian in his first two crops. Indeed I think we are in for a right royal battle between Godolphin and Coolmore in the years to come. argosy do you believe coolmore will be bothered by new approach siring some quality off spring when he is by galileo himself? 7 of the derby runners were by galileo and 1 by montjeu from the 12 runners, 5 of the runners were trained by o'brien the only breeders that are growing appear to be german breeds but the british breeder is offering nothing to the domination |
|
By:
should of said dawn approach apologies
|
|
By:
hc
Having proved himself with his very first Classic crop I have no doubt that Breeders will be falling over themselves to use New Approach and that the quality of the mares sent to him will improve as a result - just as happened with Galileo. Indeed if Godolphin are prepared to be competitive in the sphere of stallion fees breeders could well be using New Approach instead. |
|
By:
Figgis, I have to disagree with you on Ruler of the World. This horse has run three times and improved massively every time, looking genuine and appearing to possess a reasonable degree of tactical speed. I am absolutely sure he will go on to win the Irish Derby convincingly. He hasn't got a decent speed figure in the book, but I've no doubt he will be able to do so when given a chance.
|
|
By:
Howellsy, you may be right, he might prove himself a good winner. I'm just saying that he'll probably be priced up like he already is, whereas I'd like a bit more proof before taking a short price on him. There's nothing that finished behind him that I'd want to back against him, however, if enough take him on again and I consider him too short I'd be looking to lay him.
|
|
By:
My last thoughts on the race. How good is ROTW? Well given the way the race was run, and given that he had to make up ground from near the rear in the fastest part of the race, I would say that he is worthy of 123. He is lightly raced and is a good sort and can be expected to improve further, especially on a flatter track. I don't see anything in this race that will beat him over 12f and in the Irish Derby it will be something else, like Telescope maybe, who might prove more of a threat. Libertarian also did well to come from behind ROTW but he doen't have quite the same change of gear and if he is to take a G1 it will have to be over further so the St leger must be his target.
Of the others, BOM may be best at 10f whilst Galileo's Rock sat on the pace and like Libertarian will be suited by further but I don't see him beating that horse in the St Leger. |
|
By:
As for DA, he looked a class apart in the paddock but he may never be better than he is over further than 8f although I expect that they might try him over 10f as has 2 G1 entries at that trip, but over 8f he will be hard to beat. What the after-effects of this race will be, who knows?
|
|
By:
DA entered in Sussex Stakes too though is n't he? I would n't be too surprised if we don't see him before then because yesterday's exertions might have left a mark.
If I understand the Equinome classification correctly, they might be well served to consider a supplementary entry for the July Cup  I suppose a 10f G1 win would make him more attractive as a stallion. |
|
By:
Equinome page http://www.equinome.com/pages/what-is-a-c-c.html
What is a C:C? Average best distance - 6.5 f (1300 m) 75% of 5 f (1000 m) winners are C:C 65% of 6 f (1200 m) winners are C:C 98% of C:Cs win 5 f - 1 mile (1000 - 1600 m) Fast, Speedy, Sprint Type A C:C horse is likely to be a fast, early maturing horse that performs well as a two-year-old. As a two-year-old a C:C horse has 6.7 % greater muscle mass than a T:T horse and earns on average four times more prize-money. A C:C horse excels in sprints and is best suited to races up to and including 1 mile. Stallions that are C:C have the greatest share of two-year-old winners and have a stamina index of 6 - 8 f (1200 - 1600 m). Mares that are C:C can only produce C:C and C:T foals. My comment: the bar chart on the above page has this comment Proportion of Group race winning C:C horses that won their best race at distances shown in two furlong increments. C:C horses are best suited to distances less than 1 mile. My comment: looking at the graph I see 58% 5-6f; 40% 7-8f; 2% 9-10f; 0% 11-12f; 0% 13f+ |
|
By:
Mars to do a Frozen Fire in the Irish Derby
|
|
By:
Does anybody else think that JOB kicked for home too early on Battle of Marengo? I thought tactically the Ballydoyle plan was perfect in that they used a horse as a pacemaker to slow it right down (rather than set a decent pace) but why that was BOM is beyond me. Flying the Flag was up there for the first couple of furlongs but then BOM took over in front after seeming to settle incredibly well. In the Derrinstown he appeared to idle when he hit the front so, even with cheekpieces fitted, why did they think having him at the front for most of the race was a good idea? Having watched the race again a few times Manning sent DA too the front roughly 5 furlongs from home and initially it looked like a couple of horses might go with him (Moore had tracked him most of the race so far) but they realised how far from home the doubtful to stay, hard pulling favourite was and let him go. I think at this point JOB was worried that if he gave Dawn Approach too much of a head start he would not be able to catch him and so at about 4 furlongs from home, and still to completely round Tattenham corner, and kicked for home himself. Tough for any horse to try and do what he attempted and no wonder he was beaten.
Yes I did back him on the day as well as antepost on here at 60, yes I admit that I am more than likely talking through my pocket but maybe if there was a different jockey then there may have been a different result. |
|
By:
Battle of Marengo looks a bit one-paced to me & prob just short of top class.
The way the race unfolded was very messy with the pace of the race & the fact that the fav ran & pulled like a nut-job from the start until he just gave up & let him stride on with over 5f still to run!! That did not do BOM any favours, but I don't think it made any diff to the result imo. The winner ROTW is the best horse in the race & I don't expect the placed horses to turn the form around with him in the Ire Derby, if that's the next race for them. As for BOM, I think he's just a few pounds short of the top 3yo level. I like the winner & hope&think there will be a lot more to come from him as the season progresses. Should kick myself for not having something on him to win on Sat, only had a few ££ on him in the place market.  |
|
By:
Does anybody else think that JOB kicked for home too early on Battle of Marengo?
Looking back, yes. However I wouldn't be harsh on JOB for this. Dawn Approach's monkey antics all happened BEHIND Joseph. He would have had no idea that Dawn Approach had ruined his race and had no chance of staying. Basically he saw the favourite go past him and had no other option but to go with him. It would have been a brave man to just hold onto Battle of Marengo and let Dawn Approach have first run. Basically Ryan Moore on ROTW would have seen Dawn Approach pulling and he knew that he didn't have to chase him, Joseph didn't have that knowledge. No blame imo. Despite all that BOM has run a blinder, going for home so soon and only losing 2nd place on the line is a great effort. |
|
By:
BOM finished 4th did he not.
He had every chance imo, just not gd enough. |
|
By:
Sandown
Out of interest how did you rate rotw 123? through what horse? just interested as had him borderline 120 myself... for you to have him 123 you must be basing this through a certain horse i can't have him near that i may add |
|
By:
I think michrich has asked a very pertinent question. In some quarters the Ballydoyle crew have been hailed as tactical geniuses for what happened on Saturday, but I'm convinced they wanted BOM to win (jockey bookings, and check out JOB's face on the head on as they cross the line), and to my mind this was just another completely botched tactical affair that happened to work out for them on this occasion. I think Tucho has given a very good response to why JOB did go on early.
|
|
By:
Ruler Of The World stalked Dawn Approach for the first half, probably following Aidan O'Brien's instructions.
Battle Of Marengo set a steady pace, probably expecting to wind it up in the straight, burn off Dawn Approach, and Battle Of Marengo would cruise in. Unfortunately Battle Of Marengo was then outstayed, his jockey decided to accept his fate and go hands and heels. But he miscalculated and was caught close home by two horses. |
|
By:
interesting thoughts on the battle horse...
I can't have it the race wasn't run to suit him...they had an inferior horse in there if they wished to use him for the pace but o'brien went to the front after 2 furlongs on the easy lead and set his own fractions...mich rich does make a fair point and dawn approach taking him on i suppose got him racing early enough but he actually never went for him till the 2 pole and i'm afraid he could only find the same pace... to say he was unlucky or he went a tad soon is a bit much for me as thought he was basically exposed for what he is a slightly disappointing and one paced sort who isn't improving... at the time when dawn approach came upsides he had to let him free wheel down hill which he did... ask yourselves the question why were the p plates on the creature...why because they wanted more from the horse on what he had been showing them and us for that matter... his derrinstown run was average and i myself bought into the fact it was just a prep but to put the p plates on told me they thought he needed to find more to win and was disappointing them he will win his share but is definitely not one to take a price about as looks just the one pace basically he hasn't really improved much this season and in a poor derby he ran to his rating imo which is 117 in my book anyway...and i doubt he has improved much from the ballysax which may have taken more out of him than first seemed...some may view it different but that is where i am at |
|
By:
I agree, harry, that's probably as good as BOM is, at least at this stage, it has been known for the odd horse beaten in the Derby to improve afterwards. I don't think stamina was the problem, I doubt he'd be any better over 10f. I also don't think the cheek pieces are relevant, as the winner also wore them.
|
|
By:
Harry c
Sandown Out of interest how did you rate rotw 123? through what horse? just interested as had him borderline 120 myself... for you to have him 123 you must be basing this through a certain horse i can't have him near that i may add My methodology for rating horses uses a combination of final time ratings, sectional time analysis and collateral form. I do not myself rely on a single figure to describe the merit of any horse as I believe that to be seriously flawed methodology. It is very important to know HOW a performance was arrived at in terms of pace. I frequently resort to using a single figure for discussion purposes as it helps for a better debate. I do not rate a horse though any other except to say that all the races on the day have to be anchored somewhere if one is to establish an allowance for going and wind. The best anchor is invariably an older handicapper who is consistent from one race to the next. With 3 yr old top class and lightly raced horses using the bare figures is not imo a safe thing to do because of the improvement likely. Fortunately, there were other 12f races on Sat/Fri which we can use. So, my rating for ROTW is based on the way he ran his race, his final time in comparison with other races. I have him on 123 but Libertarian ONLY gets 114 from me but still better than the rest. I would expect him to improve over further but at 12f that's where I have him. The scale I use for lb ratings is the same as the accepted 0-140 scale in common use but I place more importance on speed ratings myself. The conversion of speed to weight is full of potential errors what with averaged WFA, different physiques and sizes, varied race pace and different effect of going and course all affecting how one should convert speed to weight. Needless to say, I believe that collateral rating methodology is crude and its only saving grace is that it is easy to do. The fact that it generally gets there in the end doesn't help much when the objective is to be ahead of the rest when it comes to betting. I frequently back horses which are not top-rated. The rating for DA over 8f and its advantage over the rest of the derby field seriously affected the markets view of its chance, for example. Hope this helps. I have explained my methods over the years in various other threads which people like Figgis are aware of. I only really get involved with the deby and arc threads, by the way. hope this helps. |
|
By:
While I believe sectional times can certainly be useful and should be widely available, I do think some of the assumptions can be overstated regarding what would've happened if a race had been run differently. There are obvious truths that we know about the pace of a race and how some races are run inefficiently for some horses to run to their best. When a horse has already run fast, like Intello, we know that the early fractions in the French Guineas hindered him (as well as the draw) because he had already proved what he could do in a race run at a better overall pace. However, when it comes to a horse like ROTW, he has never really proved himself in a race run in a proper Gp 1 time. We can see that the Derby was run in a way that it wasn't really possible to achieve a great time. We can also say that ROTW ran some good fractions under the circumstances. It is possible that he could've run a better time and won more decisively in a truer run race, but I certainly wouldn't take it as a given.
We see plenty of horses every day that can run fast for a couple of furlongs but they don't run any better overall when their pace is rationed. I also know the importance of wind and the changes that can happen from one race to another are grossly underestimated in the compilation of most speed figures and I'm sure the influence of wind causes just as much interference with sectionals. As I said, I'm not knocking people who base their betting on sectionals, it can obviously give people an edge. It's just that as ROTW is hardly going to be underestimated in the market from now on, I'm not sure I'd want to upgrade his win based on assumptions. |
|
By:
RULER OF THE WORLD has been allotted a mark of 120 for his win in Saturday's Investec Derby by BHA head of handicapping Phil Smith, making the Aidan O'Brien-trained colt the lowest-rated winner of the Epsom Classic this century.
The 2006 winner Sir Percy was the previous lowest, given a mark of 121 following victory, however Smith does not believe Ruler Of The World has reached the ceiling of his ability. Speaking on his BHA blog, Smith said: "I have Ruler Of The World performing to 120 at Epsom. He went two lengths clear (3lb) and then appeared to idle a little close home. I have agreed this figure with Garry O'Gorman, who is senior handicapper on the Flat for the Irish Turf Club. "I am sure this will not be the limit of Ruler Of The World's ability level. The first three in this year's Investec Derby had only run a total of eight times previously. This is the lowest figure this century and it would not surprise me if someone researched it and discovered that it was in fact the fewest number of pre-Derby runs ever by the first three finishers. "Certainly they all have bags of improvement in them, particularly Libertarian on a more galloping track and perhaps over a couple of extra furlongs. Smith gave Libertarian a mark of 117, while Oaks winner Talent has been handed a mark of 114. The last filly to be given the same rating following Oaks success was Snow Fairy in 2010, who ended her three-year-old campaign on 120. Smith added: "Ralph Beckett's filly is clearly improving and it would be no surprise to see her emulate Snow Fairy's figure by the end of the season. She appears to save her best for the racecourse and not the training grounds. "This century only two Oaks winners Casual Look (113) and Was (113) have been rated lower than Talent, BUT do not underestimate her." |
|
By:
sandown what you say is a tad condescending....to a private handicapper like me anyway
figgis helps me out here in a good write up what you are actually saying is you are basing your figure on speed adjusted ratings based on your own beliefs in your speed ratings...which for me having followed speed figures and find them useful is only useful if they are correct which they can't be because you are guessing the fractions you believe the horse can achieve...or his or hers true ability what you are also saying in regards Libertarian is off a truer gallop the winner would have beaten him a whole lot further am i correct?? on your adjusted?? anyway i base mine on what i believe an animal can achieve, guessing what may have happened off of the back of indifferent sectionals is harder and i take it that was your point |
|
By:
Harry c
I have no idea of your ability/ experience, do I? So, I assume that it is best to explain fully. If that is or sounds condescending, its not meant to be. I seriously do not wish to get into a lenghty debate on this. I was trying to be helpful. You're welcome to your own opinions, as I am to mine. By way of example, Sharastani beat Dancing Brave in the Derby, but he was not nearly as good a horse. On purely final times or even collateral form, they would have been rated the same immediately after the race, would they not? however, we all knew that DB would turn out to be a better horse and so it proved.TF rated DB on 140 and sharastani on 135. (Personally, I had DB's edge by more than that but that's another story). the issue is, by how much more should DB have been rated after the Derby? That's what I seek to do. Another example.After Frankel's 2nd run at Doncastert, i had him pegged as a minimum 138 horse whilst the TS rating was 115 and the RPR was 115.That's what I try to do. be ahead of the game. As far as the derby result is concerned, i am saying that ROTW can be credited with a higher rating because of the way his race unfolded. As can Libertarian but not by as much. |
|
By:
however, we all knew that DB would turn out to be a better horse
Definitely not all, Shahrastani was the 11/10 fav for the KG, DB was 6/4. I also remember reading most of the experts (jockeys, ex jockeys, trainers, etc) in the Sporting Life choose Shahrastani over DB. I even remember one letter after the Derby saying DB didn't stay. That Topspeed rating for Frankel says more about the inadequacies of those ratings, rather than the accuracy of final time ratings in general. |
|
By:
Figgis
Your point is pedantic. I knew as did many other professionals at the time. Does that help? The market can be wrong, as we know, as we saw over Dawn Approach. Likewise experts like TF expressing a firm opinion over DA staying 12f.Everyone can expect to wrong as you admitted over BOM. I used the TS rating to illustrate a point and I daresay that TS,RPR and TF has more influence over the market than your ratings or mine. Do you want to have positive debates with others who have many years at this game or are you only interested in challenging others point of view? |
|
By:
Sandown
A strangely touchy response. My first point was actually in your favour, as I was pointing out that you gave the crowd too much credit, unlike you, most people still didn't recognise DB as the better horse at that stage, well not after Shahrastani's demolition job in the Irish Derby anyway. As for that Topspeed rating, we all make mistakes, I am appalled with myself for being 9lbs wrong for BOM, but that low Frankel rating is ridiculous. |
|
By:
Yeah Sandown, come on you were a bit touchy there mate! Figgis is one of the more balanced, reasonable posters you'll find on here! I've really appreciated your contribution to this thread, particularly your correct insight into the claims of the more lightly raced horses with more improvement to come. That argument was so powerful it almost persuaded me to add ROTW, but I was just too stubborn. My loss.
|
|
By:
OK maybe I did over-react but I didn't consider it a point worth making - anyway I saw it as a criticism, not in support.
|
|
By:
sandown
20 years i have been a form student what you are really saying after reading your thoughts are they are your own ratings adjusted in what makes sense to you, and how you intrepid that piece of form and that others cannot form judgement unless they are using these methods i think... that was my point, in fact what you were saying is that i may not have considered this in mine (that is why i asked you)...how do you know how professional i am, you don't, but you talk to me as if i'm just starting out its like listening to claire balding being condescending to everyone on the telly... its disappointing to chat to people whom only wish to talk on there terms and what suits them, on this occasion dancing brave or frankel, using the words me and other professionals as if you are better judge than others and we need educating on these certain individuals...we cannot evolve as decent punters if we aren't trying to take everything into account which i certainly do... I know plenty of pro's who have given me tips that i can't have on my mind but that is there interpretation of the form and i still respect it, it doesn't make me a better judge it is just how they have viewed certain races and they or I may still be wrong my figures are based around okovango whom i rated at around 111 after running in a truly run trail and that he could probably only peak at around 116/7 in the derby and i based this on the 3rd in his trail wire to wire who is quite exposed... he actually ran better than i thought he would in the derby but he is the base of my rating and my own ratings are based around him if you were interested but you weren't. these are my ratings sandown how i see the race and how it was run is another matter sorry to have a go sandown but don't like being spoken to like a juvenile form reader and you never did answer the libertarian question?? |
|
By:
Harry C
I've told you all I intend to tell you. I've given you an insight into how I approach things. I have made no comment on your views because they represent your opinion and I have no interest whatsoever in trying to convince you or anyone else that my methods are in anyway better than anyone else's. I have tried to explain why I might end up with a different view to you. There is no condescension intended. |
|
By:
Getting back to the Derby, I know they went slower than he's been used to but I can't help wondering if DA's behaviour was a sign of something more worrying. Maybe he's finding this old racing game a bit distressing? He's put in a few fast performances now and that Guineas win looked particularly taxing. Maybe he just needs a break? Hopefully it's nothing to be concerned about and he'll be back as good as ever.
|
|
By:
What's all this group hug stuff?
 |
|
By:
nobody saw my Ballydoyle pace analysis the night before?
It was pretty close to the mark even if I landed on Festive Cheer! |
|
By:
WOW, looking back through this thread and no mension of ROTWorld , until Pricewise came up with him in May 2013. Way back to June 30th 2012 ,Mars was as low as 12-1 to win the Derby, he was a bigger price on the day of the race. ROTWorld ran in a Maiden race on the 13th of April , on the same day all eyes where on BOM,running in a Derby trial, nice one Aiden !
Hope we all have better look in finding next years Derby winner.  |
|
By:
ttt
The 2014 version As I have backed Berkshire it is good to hear he is in good form presently |
|
By:
is kingston hill out of the derby
|
|
By:
Just taking a very quick look at this years race, using last years research as a template and 'Geoffrey Chaucer' stands out with a dosage of 7-1-12-4-0 DI 1.4 CD 0.6
The average of the last 10 years 5-1-13-4-1 DI 1.25 CD 0.23 Overall last year wasn't a million miles away, with Ruler of The World reaching the top 48 from a list of 450 or so. He was eliminated on Brilliant points (as 9 was the highest of the last 10 years)and Mars finished 6th from the shortlist of 7. |
|
By:
no jack it just needs supplementing betfair should ave left it in the market
|
|
By:
Shrews - at least I kept quiet about GC for the last few months.
 |