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2013 Epsom Derby
2013 Epsom Derby
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Looks like First Cornerstone is out, going to French Derby.
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BOM weak sauce in the market at the minute. I'm in awful form myself so it is denting my confidence in him a bit.
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Why would anyone want to take
Why would anyone play in an A/P market now when they can play NRNB? There's very little money either side and any movement means very little and only those balancing a position will be getting involved in the A/P market. So relax. |
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Magician looks set to miss the Derby as Coolmore announce they intend to run their other five entries at Epsom on Saturday
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@coolmorestud say 5 set to run - Battle of Marengo, Ruler of the World, Mars, Festive, Flying
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Coolmore Coolmore @coolmorestud 20m
At the moment Ballydoyle has 5 intended Epsom Derby runners (Battle Of Marengo, Festive Cheer, Flying The Flag Ruler Of The World & Mars. It’s possible this could change depending on how the horses are in the morning prior to declaration |
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O'Brien reveals jockeys for Epsom Derby quintet
BY TONY O'HEHIR 7:56PM 29 MAY 2013 AIDAN O'BRIEN has confirmed riding arrangements for the 2013 Investec Derby and has found berths for Ryan Moore and Richard Hughes but not Frankie Dettori. O'Brien plans to have five runners in the Epsom Classic on Saturday with son, Joseph, confirmed to ride Battle Of Marengo, the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial winner. Magician will not be declared at Thursday morning's final stage after connections opted to aim the Irish 2,000 Guineas winner at the St James's Palace Stakes, also over a mile, at Royal Ascot next month. Moore will be on Ruler Of The World, on whom he won the Chester Vase, with Hughes booked for Mars who finished sixth to red-hot Derby favourite Dawn Approach in the Qipco 2,000 Guineas. Dettori will not be involved in Ballydoyle's riding arrangements for the Classic in which Seamie Heffernan will partner Festive Cheer with Colm O'Donoghue on Flying The Flag. O'Brien said: "We discussed plans for Magician and decided to wait a bit longer before running him again. The Derby comes only a week after the Irish Guineas and while he came out of his win at the Curragh very well, it is a long season. We will train him for the St James's Palace Stakes. "The plan is to have five runners in the Derby subject to all the horses passing their routine tests before declaration time in the morning." Hughes is a rare accomplice for O'Brien in recent years but did ride for Ireland's champion trainer during the 2012 Breeders' Cup meeting at Santa Anita in November, partnering seventh-placed Lines Of Battle in the Juvenile Turf won by stablemate George Vancouver, who was ridden by Moore. However, trainer and jockey have teamed up before in the Derby, in 2009, when O'Brien ran six in an attempt to topple Sea The Stars. The bid proved unsuccessful but Hughes fared second best of the Ballydoyle sextet as Fame And Glory under Heffernan chased home the winner with Hughes next best on Masterofthehorse. |
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My guess: Flying The Flag ridden by Colm Donoghue, with just seven days after his last race in the Irish 2000 Guineas will be the Ballydoyle pacemaker. Flying The Flag (Seamus Heffernan) also pacemaking.
Battle Of Marengo (Joseph O'Brien), Mars (Richard Hughes), Rules Of The World (Ryan Moore) to contend. The draw might affect whether one or both can get into a pacemaking position. |
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forget the ballydoyle entries running this many means they're all plodders and they don't know which is best. this race is between DA, chopin and Fabre's horse.
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Oaks & Derby preview
http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/2013/2013_epsom_derby-oaks_preview.htm |
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that's how we know they are average - when they have a good one they only run a couple.
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Maybe, but it is also possible to conclude that as there are only 2 (MOM,ROTW) with any realistic chance, the other 3 are there for tactical reasons. Expect alternating pace makers and a strong pace.. If any of the 3 outsiders hang on for a place then they increase their value.
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He ran only one in 2004, it finished last.
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http://www.nickmordin.com/uk.htm
Mordin makes some valid points among the usual chaff regarding DA's stamina prospects. He is another who's trying to find excuses for the supposed slow Guineas time, though, instead of realising there's something wrong with the method of reaching his figures. |
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I'm on "Removed selection". I hope he does well.
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Over an inch of rain this week and the going likely to be good to soft at best.
Hopefully that makes DA's stamina even more of an issue and is certainly great news for Galileo Rock  |
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On ATR site there is a free "Ask The Jury" from TF re this Derby.
http://data.attheraces.com/images/pdf/timeform/ATRTimeformJuryDerby2013.pdf Their Chief Correspondent, Flat editor and Deputy Print Editor comment on DA stamina, the Ballydoyle llot, Best of the Rest. Reasons given for DA staying: 1. he has improved with each step up in distance (yes Jamie, but so what - this another 4f or 50% further and what he has done so far means nothing) 2There's Derby winner after Derby winner in his stallion line ( There usually is Jamie) 3. the dam's side offers rather more hope than a cursory look might suggest ( Most pedigree buffs have delved a lot more than cursory and his dam's side offers no hope whatsoever. TF's idea that a low grade hrdler ran over 16f is the best they have to offer.) 4. He isn't bred to get to 132 ...implication being that he has outrun his pedigree. (And that proves what exactly David- we are assessing stamina not ability) 5. He is relaxed and proving more amenable to restraint than the sire ever did (and that proves he will stay, does it?) Seems the standard of analysis and logical inference has dropped somewhat at Halifax. |
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The rain and change in the going is an extra factor to consider but I have always been amazed in the past at how quickly Epsom dries out, especially when they move the rail back for the fresh ground on the inside. There is very little further rain forecast and by Saturday, if that is so, I expect it to be closer to "good" than "soft".
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Cheekpieces on BOM.
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NO. DRAW HORSE AGE WGT TRAINER RTF% JOCKEY OR TS RPR
19 111-11 Battle Of Marengo20 p 3 9-0 A P O´Brien67 Joseph O'Brien 117 109 130 24 21-1 Chopin41 3 9-0 A Wohler Jamie Spencer 115 — 128 37 1111-1 Dawn Approach28 3 9-0 J S Bolger59 Kevin Manning 125 132 141 42 51-3 Festive Cheer20 3 9-0 A P O´Brien67 Seamie Heffernan 111 79 124 58 127-96 Flying The Flag7 3 9-0 A P O´Brien67 C O'Donoghue 108 111 122 611 15-3 Galileo Rock36 3 9-0 David Wachman83 Wayne Lordan 108 104 119 75 141 Libertarian16 3 9-0 Mrs K Burke52 William Buick 112 108 128 812 1-6 Mars28 3 9-0 A P O´Brien67 Richard Hughes 108 92 120 96 5137-1 Mirsaale38 3 9-0 James Tate83 Neil Callan 96 105 115 103 64-998 Ocean Applause38 p 3 9-0 John Ryan25 Daragh O'Donohoe 74 57 99 111 1-11 Ocovango28 3 9-0 A Fabre Pierre-Charles Boudot 114 89 126 1210 11 Ruler Of The World23 p 3 9-0 A P O´Brien67 Ryan Moore 109 113 127 |
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Sandown, agreed, that is pretty feeble arguments. Do you remember what the general or "expert" opinion was regarding EGS's prospects back in 1984?
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*those are
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Although, to be fair, I'd find it hard to make a watertight argument for why I think he won't be as effective on Saturday.
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Poor draw for Ocovango; Cheekpieces for Battle of Marengo (1.01 they'll be removed before he reaches the winners enclosure) do not inspire confidence.
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Have any derby winners worn cheek pieces in the past?
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No. I wouldn't worry about it, I guess they just feel he's been a bit lazier on the track than what they've been seeing at home? They probably just don't want to take any chances. Personally I doubt they're necessary, I reckon the Ballysax performance was better than it may have looked on paper and many a good horse can look ordinary when a race is run like the Derrinstown was.
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If a horse is facing the biggest test of its career you would want to see it running under optimum conditions whatever price you have taken. Anyone who has backed Galileo Rock should get the prayer mat out in the hope the ground dries up again. Trainer on record as saying this is a fast ground horse. He might have some soft ground form in the book but that is just a reflection of the conditions facing so many horses in Ireland who struggle to find suitable ground.
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No great surprise to me that Magician gives the Derby a miss
 .I don't see him as a 1m4f horse anyway. Hopefully the ground dries out to near gd ground come Sat for the Big 1 (bloody weather  ) On g/f ground I would have been very hopeful of Dawn Approach landing the great race & become another 1 of a select few of horses to do the gns/derby double. Gd luck with all your bets punters. |
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Figgis
Although, to be fair, I'd find it hard to make a watertight argument for why I think he won't be as effective on Saturday. I'll have a crack but first EGS. You try my memory, but EGS had much more chance of staying than DA. He was by Northern Dancer out of a Buckpasser mare and Buckpasser at the time was well acknowledged as a imparting stamina through his daughters.Although DA'd dosage profile appears stronger there are a lot of excetions which that theory has to handle such as Sea The Stars getting a DI of 3.0 despite the fact that his dam was Urban Sea. To this day I'm not really convinced that EGS failed through lack of stamina, although to be sure, Secreto can be said to have outstayed EGS. EGS was a horse horse who tended to pull up when he hit the front apparently, he was an awful long time on his own and Secreto outbattled him. But can we say that he didn't stay? He went on th win the Irish Derby, albeit I think it was more slowly run, but Eddery did change his tactics, too. Before the Derby, looking back to the 2000 guineas he won with a pace profile which would have encouraged me, if I had been into pace in those days,which strongly suggested that he would stay further, although you can never be sre about how far. It must be said that he ran his 2000 gns finishing much more strongly than Dawn Approach did in his, and the race was a classic in reality as well in name.TF 1983 Annual rated EGS prospects of staying 12f as "doubtful".EGS was a relaxed in his racing style and that may have helped.TF at the time said " few horses capable of a performance over a mile such as EGS have also possessed stamina sufficient to enable them to reproduce the same level of performance in the best company over 12f." Indeed, they went on to rubbish the theory heard even then that (milers/10f horses) can win a Derby. They seem to have a different view reading DA As for DA, I would say that his pedigree is quite clear that there is a large measure of doubt over whether he will be at his best over 12 given the speedy/low class dam side. Plus the genetic classification of him as aspint type is very damning although the theory needs more evidence to support it. I would say that his profile is exactly that of 2000 gns winners who went on to run in and fail in the Derby. this piece of evidence is unique to myself but it is my specialty and I'm very confident about it. Having said all of that, there are no certainties in rand there is always the chance that all this will not matter. Add to that the very convincing additional argument about him starting in March over 5f (a rarity in Derby winners) the fact that his trainer was never quoted as seeing him as a Derbyy type and that to some observers he may not handle the track given the way he handled the Dip at N'market, then I think it fair to say that on the balance of probabilities he won't stay, and evens is a rubbish price. |
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That 84 Contest had the next years Lincoln winner leading with a mile to go whilst a future Melbourne cup winner kicked off Tattenham corner with a 3 odd length lead !!!
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Sandown
You make a decent case. All I can offer is that I've never seen him as a middle distance horse and his performance in the Guineas convinced me even more that he's a miler. Barring Frankel, that was the best Guineas win I've seen in recent years and if he does stay then it means I'll have opposed potentially the best middle distance 3yo in my time. I did get it wrong about STS when I opposed him with F&G at Epsom. The difference there was I'd always thought STS was a middle distance horse until his Guineas win. He was my pick for the Guineas on a thread on here but I didn't back him. I thought he might just scrape a win before going on to do better over further. However, when I saw the time he clocked, which was the best I'd seen since Zafonic, I thought this horse is either going to be the best middle distance horse I've seen or he's a pure miler, unfortunately I opted for the latter. As I said, though, I've never seen DA as a middle distance prospect, plus I think the manner of his Guineas win could take more of a toll than how STS won. I also rate Battle Of Marengo higher than I had F&G. |
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I am surprised that betfair odds of > 2.3 are still available - considering its around Evs or worse on other bookies - this differential seems suspiciously 'generous' and worries me a little tho I am inclined to personally price Dawn Approach's chance at around 4/6 so I will probably bet large
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Post Script to EGS. Out of curiosity, went on Youtube and timed the Secreto/EGS Derby. They finished in a very slow sectional suggesting that EGS did NOT stay the trip effectively. Modern methods, eh?
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Good luck Gagging. It's what makes for a market. One of us should be right
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Sandown, yes, you'd have to think Secreto was a below average winner, while EGS was an above average Guineas winner. It's difficult putting ratings on races when you weren't around at the time to have a proper handle on things, but when I tried to time rate it a few years after the event it looked a poor renewal. Has to be that EGS didn't quite stay or possibly he didn't entirely recover from the big Guineas effort.
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Starting to think I might actually have a chance with my 33/1 bet on ruler of the world, Especially with the ground conditions turning and the clerks comments. Hoping it doesn't dry up too much tomorrow with 20 degrees expected. Would have been happy with it running a couple of weeks ago, now into 4th favourite.
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I believe that EDDERY rode a very poor race, got to the front very easily and decided to contain the horse instead of striking for home, consequently SECRETO made a sustained challenge and worried EL GRAN SENOR out of it, as you spotted SANDOWN, he adopted different tactics for the IRISH DERBY.
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Has somebody tipped up Festive Cheer? Was going to wait until the day, but had to back him just there as all of the 50/1 is nearly gone.
Don't see why he's so big based on the French race lto, and Aidan has had a few big priced outsiders place in recent years (At First Sight, Treasure Beach). |
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Festive Cheer 240.7 €21.44 €5,140.06
My main hope is Ruler Of the World. Also tiny bets on Galileo Rock and Ocovango. I'v place-laid Dawn Approach and Battle Of Marengo. |
