Sandown, you seem to have a down on DAWN APPROACH as regards a lack of stamina, yet you are now siding with MAGICIAN who is also probably lacking in stamina, there have been a few winners of 1 1/2 mile classics, that had sprinters close up in their pedigree, if I remember right HARD RIDDEN had a sire who was a sprinter, DR DEVIOUS was another, TIME CHARTER was
another who was high class and sprinter close up in her pedigree, CLASS is the answer.

Bazzar

I have layed DA and backed Magican at long odds on the latter but I do not expect to collect on Magician given the various issues. Either horse could win given that they have proven G1 form but stamina is key issue with both, assuming both run.I am intrigued by DA being so short given the large body of evidence suggesting that he won't run to his best level of 127 RPR over 12f. If he does, then I will lose. That's racing.

Sandown, yes fair enough. Another factor being overlooked is how big an effort it was in the Guineas and how he'll come out of that so soon. I know some have said the time wasn't fast but for some unknown reason they have overlooked the ground was slowing, pretty obvious I would've thought looking at the latter races. It wasn't like it was achieved effortlessly either. Big performances like that often temporarily take the edge off a horse, sometimes even permanently.

I'm sure in an interview I saw with Bolger before the Guineas he mentioned something along the lines of how DA was allowed to race more lazily last season but this year they were going to waken him up more, hardly ideal for a Derby prep.

May 6th
Jim Bolger "On his breeding you would expect that he would not get it (the Derby trip), but because he’s so relaxed and he has so much class, there is a reasonable chance that he will get it. For that reason, it probably will be decided that he’ll go there. It will more than likely be Epsom. He wouldn’t have the stamina influence New Approach had in his pedigree, but that doesn’t mean he will not stay"

May 17th
Asked for his view on the fortnight of Derby trials, he said cryptically: “I think the only trials that matter are the ones at Coolcullen (his stable). We’re ecstatic with them.”

May 24th
“I’m very happy with him. He has come out of the Guineas very well. His performance in the Guineas was spectacular, I think that’s recognised by everybody"
“He has been thriving ever since. I’d say he’s eating a little more than he was before the Guineas, so he’s come out of it really well, and I’ve no doubt he has improved.
“Kevin (Manning) and I know every blade of grass at Epsom at this stage. We’ve walked the track umpteen times and we’re happy enough about that.
“As regards to the competition, I wish them all well, I respect each and every one of them and I would not be losing any sleep over who turns up.”

May 28th
“I thought Magician’s performance on Saturday was very smart,”
“Dawn Approach is continuing to please me and I am looking forward to running him on Saturday"

SJ

fair enoough.

I've backed BOM and will be topping up nearer the time. When checking back through my ratings last week I realised I'd underrated his Ballysax win. I thought it was ok at the time but only good enough to win a poor Derby. I now believe it's good enough to win a decent renewal. It compares well with those put up by Galileo and High Chaparral. The Derrinstown was slowly run and meaningless, funnily enough so were the ones that Galileo and High Chaparral won.

I have DA 5lbs ahead of him, a significant amount but these are time ratings, not wfa influenced handicap ratings. 3yo 12f time ratings at this time of year roughly average about 4 or 5lbs lower than their 8f equivalents. Even if DA recovers from his Guineas exertions and stays the trip well (which I'm highly doubtful of), he's very unlikely to run to his excellent Guineas figure, it just doesn't happen, there would be very little between him and BOM, imo.

Magician is a possible spanner in the works, I have him 1lb ahead of BOM. Again, like DA, this was over 1m, even if he recovers from last Saturday and stays well (highly doubtful, imo) he won't be running quite that high a figure over 12f.

Possibly something will come out of the rest of the pack that I've underrated, but for me the rest look like also rans.

I'm going out on a limb here, but in BOM I'm as confident as I've ever been about a horse winning the Derby.

Yes, Jack, in this case I'm not worried. It's not too surprising as he's not exactly set the world alight with the appearance of his trials and with Magician appearing late on the scene. I think the quality of the Ballysax win was misleading though and has slipped under the radar, it slipped under mine at first.

I hope it keeps raining then.

I don't think Bolger truly believes that Dawn Approach is a Derby horse.

Figgis

BOM put up a very decent performance at Leopardstown in September when he won despite his saddle slipping. That put him on my list as showed a decent turn of foot. I've been somewhat disappointed by him since although he has been progressing in his ratings. The key to him, i believe, is that like Magician, he is a different horse on fast ground. He, too, has a fluent action. He is a Galileo but out of a Green Desrt mare who won over 8f. He, too, is not a guaranteed stayer, imo.But I,too,have him on the right side.

I think that this years 2000 Guineas winner is a very good miler, beating up on a very poor field, so was visually impressive - and definitely helped to confirm his 2yo domination over 6F/7F.

He is one of several better fancied colts in the Derby with terrible stamina doubts.

In the Derby I would prefer to back those with stamina-pedigrees, and I have been looking forward to seeing GALILEO ROCK over 12F and over, ever since his debut 7L romp over a future 100-rated runner-up.

He looked a St Leger candidate all over in the 10F Sandown Classic Trial, and I have snapped up the early 33/1 for that contest, but given the lack of stamina-depth in the Derby, I can see why 66/1 has been taken, and 50/1 is just about to disappear too.

He has already beat the Dante winner, and is guaranteed to step up his form for the trip.

Definitely not a longshot to feature, and an each-way play on Saturday.

Ocovango and Chopin are also not certain to stay on breeding.

no markets available on the derby, why is this?

maybe they are trying to tell me something.Thanks.

maybe they are trying to fix the old site prob where the P+L does not show and have managed to break the new site too

bloggsville, that may be the case. one thing is certain, the site will go down on saturday, so i will be careful not to find myself in a possition whereby i cant trade out.
grand national day the site going down worked for me, i couldnt trade out and the horse selected won at 130-1, could easily of worked against me.
so fellow punters, take care saturday.

yeah using old site here

cheers Sj. Don't really want anymore rain.

All I want now is Secret Gesture to be drawn between 3-9. Happy days if so.

Lifted from the Breeding forum


Joined:
05 Jun 08
| Topic/replies: 570 | Blogger: RoyalAcademy's blog
I thought this was a well-written piece by Arjan Stulen in the RP bloodstock section.


Guineas hero has stats to overcome at Epsom

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WHEN unbeaten 2,000 Guineas winner Dawn Approach walks into the Epsom starting stalls on June 1 at around 4pm he will have a big task ahead. Not only does he need to beat the rest of the field, he will also need to beat a collection of statistics that say he will not win the Derby.

First of all there is the sheer fact that Dawn Approach is a 2,000 Guineas winner. Since 2009 two Guineas winners went on to win the Derby and this may suggest that the 2,000 Guineas is a successful Derby trial.

You'd almost forget that when Guineas winner Sea the Stars won the Derby, it had been 20 years since a horse had completed the same double. (Nashwan in 1989). In the last 25 years, 12 horses have tried to do the same and only three succeeded. Guineas winners such as Refuse To Bend, Golan, Entrepreneur, Pennekamp and Rodrigo De Triano all started as the favourite at Epsom yet failed to deliver.

Dawn Approach may well start as the favourite too and the history books say he has only a 25 per cent chance.

Then there is Dawn Approach himself. Although it is hard to argue with the fact that both Dawn Approach's sire (New Approach) and grandsire (Galileo) won the Derby, it seems there is a lack of stamina and class in the bottom half of his pedigree.

His dam Hymn Of The Dawn ran five times and her form reads "48990". In addition to the fact that she wasn't a winner, she is by Phone Trick. Himself a sprinter, he predominantly sired sprinters. In fact, he hasn't produced any noteworthy winners that have won over distances beyond a mile. Hymn Of The Dawn has produced one other winner, Comadoir. He won his three races over five, six and seven furlongs.

What most Derby winners have in common are dams who are either classy black-type performers or represent a strong influence of stamina. If we take the last five renewals of the Derby we consistently see either stamina, class or a combination of both on the dam side.

Starting with Camelot, his dam Tarfah won five of her eight starts including the Group 3 Dahlia Stakes over 1m1f. Combine that with middle-distance champion Montjeu and you end up with a perfect Derby pedigree.

Before Camelot we had Pour Moi. Also by Montjeu, he is out of the unraced Darshaan mare Gwynn (an influence for stamina). Prior to Pour Moi, Gwynn had already produced Irish Oaks third Gagnoa. A recipe for stamina here too then.

A year earlier it was Workforce. Like Pour Moi out of an unraced mare, Workforce is out of the Sadler's Wells (influence for stamina) mare Soviet Moon. She is a sister to St Leger winner Brian Boru. Here too, was a good reason to believe the Derby distance would not pose a problem.

Before Workforce it was the great Sea The Stars. Although there were some stamina questions because of his sire (miler Cape Cross), his dam was Arc winner Urban Sea, who had already produced Derby winner Galileo.

Once more a year earlier and we come to New Approach (Dawn Approach's sire). By Derby winner Galileo, New Approach is out of Irish Champion Stakes winner Park Express, a combination that also suggested the Derby distance would not be a problem.

If that's not enough, all three winners of the Guineas-Derby double in the last 25 years were out of Group-winning mares.

Dawn Approach will have to overcome the fact that his dam is neither a winner nor a real influence for stamina. He might win based on the fact that he possesses so much class himself and because he can settle well enough in the race to save fuel for the home straight, but until then he needs to prove that statistics are about the past and not necessarily the future. I hope he will.