Apparently they have nothing to lose in running Magician. I'd say they have a bit to lose. If they throw everything at the one horse and fail, then it could be a long season, and Magician might take a while to recover. I haven't backed Magician myself, and i won't be bothered if he runs anyway. If he turns out to be the best on the day, then so be it. I think Magician should be kept for SJP and Eclipse. Jim thinks Dawn Approach is still awesome, and i think he's still awesome too, trainer and horse. I also feel that Chopin could be quite handy, and he would be a bigger price and has crept under the radar still. Let's see what happens.

Whether they run Magician or not may tell us something about how Coolmore feel about BOM and ROTW. If they believe that between the two of them they can really take the Derby, then they won't run Magician. But, if they are not sure, and now that Magican has his G1, has shown he stays 10f and might stay 12f, then they will chance him. The Derby is vital to Coolmore's stallion ambitions.

First Cornerstone, Flying The Flag, Magician, Trading Leather will be running after a 7 day break.

I listed "days since" for the 1998 to 2012 Derby winners.
The average break was 45.2 days with the median 27 days.
Take out Lammtarra (302 days), Shaamit (217 days) and it was 25.7 average and 27 days median.
Authorized (16 days) and New Approach (14 days) were the lowest.
Take out those two and the figures settle at 26.8 and 27 days.

Really hope they let Magician take his chance...he looks all class and his presence will add a lot to the race. Mind you if Epsom was really on their minds (apart from obviously turning up at all) JO'B could have taken it a bit easier on him once he had picked up Trading Leather....a little whip happy IMO. I agree Sandown that his presence will tell a lot about what they think of their other runners chances...

Wish there was a 2 week break between Curragh and Epsom like in New Approach's year.....still hope he turns up though

Magician is not certain to stay the Derby trip so if running, he might create a tactical quandary for Ballydoyle: slow it down to conserve Magician's stamina and risk teeing it up for Dawn Approach.

That said, I think it possible to focus too much on stamina in the Derby, which can be won by colts best at ten furlongs.

There is a lot of talk about the St James's Palace Stakes but the French Derby and Eclipse might be more obvious targets.

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/8739384/galileo-ready-to-rock-at-epsom

Kincem.Good piece of research and I'm sure that all things being equal, it would be better to have at least a 3 week recovery period. But, these sort of stat findings are not necessarily causal and they are there to be broken as with stats regarding weight limits, sire/progeny stats, trainer stats etc.

Ramruma. I'm not sure I agree with the view about 10f horses, its like the one about 2m horses in the Grand National.In my experience, the Derby is nearly always run at a strong pace and the course places quite a demand on horses with that uphill first 4f. There must have been far more fancied horses not getting home than 10f horses just getting up.

It certainly doesn't pay to go to fast early on, because of that uphill start, and the camber in the straight can catch jockeys out. That's why Piggott was so brilliant around Epsom, he knew just how to ride it, and the jockey factor must weigh heavily against Ocovango. The jockey on Pour Moi nearly got caught out on his first ride and was saved by having a bit of a machine underneath him. Magician will not be helped by this rain which may be more of factor if the going is on the soft side.

@Sandown re 10f horses. Exhibit A from last year: Camelot is now touted by Ballydoyle as a 10f horse (at least before Al Kazeem turned him over at the weekend).

Good news about Galileo Rock. I've £25 matched between 220 and 400/1. Surprised to read that this was always the plan, too. I thought they might just have a crack at it due to the iffy nature of the race this year.

Any chance we could get soft ground? Loads of rain about.

sint by all accounts we could have up to 9mm before tomorrow morning then bright and breezy with some light showers

I forgot to add King of Kings 11/2 in 1998. I'm sure that anyone going back even further would find every year almost a strongly fancied horse which didn't get the trip.

I've always been of the opinion that top 12f horses, who are bred for 12f, need to have the speed to win at 10f and if they can win at 8f then they might be very good indeed(eg Nashwan, Galileo,Sea the stars,  Camelot.)

Sounds like BOM is a cert then going by that theory!

Sandown

These were the favourites (some years joint favs).

1950_Prince Simon___________2/1_[was 2 of 25]
1951_Ki Ming_______________9/1_[was 24 of 33]
1952_Tulyar_____________won 11/2_[was 1 of 33]
1953_Pinza______________won 5/1_[was 1 of 27]
1953_Premonition____________5/1_[was 25 of 27]
1954_Rowston Manor__________5/1_[was 7 of 22]
1954_Ferriol_______________5/1_[was 11 of 22]
1955_Acropolis______________11/4_[was 3 of 23]
1956_Lavandin___________won 7/1_[was 1 of 27]
1957_Crepello___________won 6/4_[was 1 of 22]
1958_Wallaby_______________4/1_[was 19 of 20]
1959_Shantung_______________11/2_[was 3 of 20]
1960_Angers_______________2/1_[was fell of 17]
1961_Moutiers_______________5/1_[was 25 of 28]
1962_Hethersett_____________9/2_[was fell of 26]
1963_Relko______________won 5/1_[was 1 of 26]
1964_Santa Claus________won 15/8_[was 1 of 17]
1965_Sea-Bird___________won 7/4_[was 1 of 22]
1966_Right Noble____________9/2_[was 9 of 25]
1966_Pretendre______________9/2_[was 2 of 25]
1967_Royal Palace_______won 7/4_[was 1 of 22]
1968_Sir Ivor___________won 4/5_[was 1 of 13]
1969_Ribofilio______________7/2_[was 5 of 26]
1970_Nijinsky___________won 11/8_[was 1 of 11]
1971_Mill Reef__________won 100/30_[was 1 of 21]
1972_Roberto____________won 3/1_[was 1 of 22]
1973_Ksar_______________5/1_[was 4 of 25]
1974_Nonoalco_______________9/4_[was 7 of 18]
1975_Green Dancer___________6/4_[was 6 of 18]
1976_Wollow_______________11/10_[was 5 of 23]
1977_Blushing Groom_________9/4_[was 3 of 22]
1978_Inkerman_______________4/1_[was 21 of 25]
1979_Ela-Mana-Mou___________9/2_[was 4 of 23]
1980_Nikoli_______________4/1_[was 8 of 24]
1981_Shergar____________won 10/11_[was 1 of 18]
1982_Golden Fleece______won 3/1_[was 1 of 18]
1983_Teenoso____________won 9/2_[was 1 of 21]
1984_El Gran Senor__________8/11_[was 2 of 17]
1985_Slip Anchor________won 9/4_[was 1 of 14]
1986_Dancing Brave__________2/1_[was 2 of 17]
1987_Reference Point____won 6/4_[was 1 of 19]
1988_Red Glow_______________5/2_[was 4 of 14]
1989_Nashwan____________won 5/4_[was 1 of 12]
1990_Razeen_______________9/2_[was 14 of 18]
1991_Toulon_______________4/1_[was 9 of 13]
1991_Corrupt_______________4/1_[was 6 of 13]
1992_Rodrigo de Triano______13/2_[was 9 of 18]
1993_Tenby_______________4/5_[was 10 of 16]
1994_Erhaab_____________won 7/2_[was 1 of 25]
1995_Pennekamp______________11/8_[was 11 of 15]
1996_Dushyantor_____________9/2_[was 2 of 20]
1997_Entrepeneur____________4/6_[was 4 of 13]
1998_Cape Verdi_____________11/4_[was 9 of 15]
1999_Dubai Millennium_______5/1_[was 9 of 16]
2000_Beat Hollow____________7/2_[was 3 of 15]
2001_Galileo____________won 11/4_[was 1 of 12]
2001_Golan_______________11/4_[was 2 of 12]
2002_Hawk Wing______________9/4_[was 2 of 12]
2003_Refuse To Bend_________11/4_[was 13 of 20]
2004_North Light________won 7/2_[was 1 of 14]
2004_Snow Ridge_____________7/2_[was 7 of 14]
2005_Motivator__________won 3/1_[was 1 of 13]
2006_Visindar_______________2/1_[was 5 of 18]
2007_Authorized_________won 5/4_[was 1 of 17]
2008_Casual Conquest________7/2_[was 3 of 16]
2009_Fame And Glory_________9/4_[was 2 of 12]
2010_Jan Vermeer____________9/4_[was 4 of 12]
2011_Carlton House__________5/2_[was 3 of 13]
2012_Camelot____________won 8/13_[was 1 of 9]


In 1959/1960/1961 French favs turned over (because French won in 1950;1955;1956)
Again French flops in the 1970s; possibly remembering Sea-Bird in 1965.
Then Lester Piggott favourites regularly turned over.
2000 Guineas winners won 1968 & 1970 Derby, then only 1/9 winning (Nashwan) until Camelot in 2012.

People remember recent winners and the story surrounding them, and hope it repeats.

This year's stories:
Telescope: little form, but Stoute did it with Workforce, therefore Telescope will win.
Dawn Approach: the 2000 Guineas winner won the Derby last year, and Bolger won it recently.  And something about genetics.
Magician: trained by a magician. If anyone can win two classics in a week with one horse he can.
Ocovango: Fabre won recently with Pour Moi after years of Derby flops.  Forget the flops.
Battle Of Marengo: didn't he win the Derrinstown like other greats.  It's almost like a Derby passport.

Of course one of the above could win.  Recent favourites have done well.  Refuse To Bend was the last to run poorly.

Sandown, I have to say you've been very loose with that list of horses that failed due to supposed lack of stamina. The last 4 on that list seemed to completely lose their form and a bunch of them simply weren't good enough, Carlton House (could've won in an easier year), Jan Vermeer, Beat Hollow and Visindar (terribly overrated favs), Hawk Wing was justifiably beaten by a horse that had clocked an excellent time in the Ballysax. Refuse to Bend was a poor Guineas winner. I'd say only Dubawi, Dubai Millennium and RVW could be said to have proved themselves better over shorter after the Derby.

2006
I place laid 2/1f Visindar, backed Sir Percy at 16/1+
Other years not so good.

The CC-types in Dr Hill's study of 179 Group and Listed winners were largely sprinters. Less than 5% of them were at their best at any distance beyond 1m and no CCs had an optimum distance of 1m3f or further.


D is described as a CC type. On the evidence, DA will defintely not win at 12f, if this theory is to be believed.  What price DA if this gets widespread

@Sandown re Equinome -- trivia -- the geneticist's mum owned Dawn Run.