Horse Antepost
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2013 Epsom Derby
2013 Epsom Derby
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For what it's worth ....
DAWN APPROACH The debate seems to centre around whether he will stay. As I said on another thread, I think there’s another issue: the track and how it suits him. So far in his career, he’s been a one trick pony, admittedly at a very high level. He runs on basically straight tracks in races run at a strong pace. He can handle that pace and stay on strongly whilst others wilt. A high class grinder, he might be best suited by an all out gallop on good to firm ground, because at least then the only question is whether he will stay. But when was the last Derby run at a searching gallop? In recent years, the pacemakers or horses sitting in second position have just kept going and finished too close for comfort at times. Furthermore, the appearance of ‘soft’ in the description is even more likely to make it a bit of a muddling gallop. This is why Blue Bunting got beaten in the Oaks: stamina was not the issue – it was her inability to generate sufficient momentum around the bends and in pursuing an uneven pace. So my conclusion about DA is that in an end to end gallop he might not stay, and in any other scenario he’s got even less chance of showing his best. Has to be opposed at the price. BATTLE OF MARENGO In many ways has the perfect Derby prep. Since his debut defeat, he’s gone to the races five times as odds-on favourite, and won every time, on varying turf and three different types of track. He’s tough, solid, consistent, and a winner.The only imperfect aspect of his profile in theory is the lack of group 1 form - a Racing Post Trophy win. It does appear that Kingsbarns was seen as the better colt at home last Autumn. My second worry about this colt is a subjective one: the lack of an impressive speed figure. The Ballysax was his best effort, and for a colt having his fifth start, an 82 on my scale was pretty ordinary (I’m looking at high 80s for the Derby winner). Nevertheless, this colt is now very experienced and hardened to the idea of going to the races and getting the job done. I know he’s not a certain stayer in theory, but I think his Ballysax win in heavy ground is pretty convincing evidence he’ll stay well enough. I expect him to run well and probably win. OCOVANGO He will certainly not be inconvenienced by ground on the slow side of good. Whilst he has looked very professional so far, it is impossible to get excited by the bare form, and one has to wonder what he has learned by making all in his prep, although he did beat off a challenge from a possibly promising colt - it’s also hard to know what he’s beaten. I can’t recall the last Derby winner who made all the running in his prep race, but I don’t think it’s been done for 20 years at least, and that’s surely no coincidence. The Derby is not the ideal race in which to face adversity / pace pressure for the first time. A further doubt is raised by the inexperience of his jockey and a possibly difficult draw in stall one. However, he should assume a prominent position and give backers a decent run. What else can one say? He is unexposed and could be anything, but my conclusion is he hasn’t quite learned enough to win this race. RULER OF THE WORLD A promising colt, with a reasonably similar profile to Ocovango, both being unbeaten and utterly unexposed colts. ROTW would appear to have a little more scope for improvement after just two starts, but on the other hand he is even less experienced. And while Ocovango’s form has been franked to some extent, by one of the beaten horses finishing close up ina group 3 subsequently, ROTW’s form is rotten to the core. A 6 length beating of Mister Impatience over 12f is mickey mouse form. Whilst it would be folly to say he has no chance, my view is that he simply hasn’t been sufficiently toughened to win this race. Ballydoyle have gone close in two recent renewals with 12f trial winners, but both had a lot more experience than this chap, and Treasure Beach had, after all, beaten Nathaniel at Chester. Perhaps he was value at 20-1 a week ago, but at single figures he’s a risible price for what he’s achieved, and is happily passed over. CHOPIN I’m not going to expose my ignorance at length here. I have no idea how good he is, but his form looks absolutely specious to me, in small fields over shorter trips, and he will surely have the shock of his life in amongst a pack of horses coming down Tattenham Corner at racing pace. He may well be a horse of great potential, but his Derby prep has been woefully inadequate, and his price is much too short. LIBERTARIAN The rain this week has surely helped his cause. The arguments against him have been well rehearsed, and are irrefutable: he travelled dismally at York and a similar performance here will see him tailed off around Tattenham Corner. However, it is possible he will have learned something from that, and it is also possible that he will hang on to the back of them and enter the straight with half a chance of running them down. Not enough has been said in the horse’s favour for my liking. As far as I am concerned, if (and I concede it is a big IF) he can somehow reproduce his performance figure from the Dante, he’ll go very close indeed. If he can travel a little more fluently, and if he can improve a few pounds more, I really believe he can win it. Unquestionably the value of the race at 16-1 or bigger. I can’t see any of the others having serious win claims. I've looked long and hard at Mars' Guineas run, and whilst he clearly remains a colt of some potential, it's surely impossible to discern a Derby winning talent there. CONCLUSION: Battle of Marengo will surely run a very strong race and take some beating. Libertarian and Ocovango are the other two I like, the latter a biased affection as I chucked £14 on him at 80-1 in March. I’ve backed all three. I’m strongly against Ruler of the World and Chopin, and although I acknowledge Dawn Approach is a very high class animal who keeps finding for pressure, I find myself having to oppose him at this trip but especially at this track. PS I’ve posted profusely about the Derby in each of the past 5 years and, but for a consolation straight forecast on Sea the Stars to beat Fame and Glory, and an acknowledgement of the obvious last year, my record is atrocious. But you’ve just got to love the anticipation, the taking of a strong view. Can’t wait for Saturday. |
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Howellsy,enjoyable read,top work
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Thanks Howellsey.
It is nice to read reasoned opinions, even if you oppose my money on Ruler Of The World. I hate to read some people naming a horse as the winner, and giving no reason how the arrive at their choice. I'm a little afraid of something like Galileo Rock, or Festive Cheer winning (to silent grandstands). We must be mad to spend so much time on a 2 1/2 minute race, but we do. |
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Great read Howellsy, even if you are the polar opposite of me, ive backed CHOPIN a/p
Reasons, negatives about the fav, im just as worried about him hanging, as well as his Stamina, aidens not a good record over here when he runs more than three in a classic and i cant have the Burke one being ahead of the Irish form so far this year. There are, and i admit im being subjective here, tenuous form lines through Global Bang, Triple Threat and Park Reel that may suggest that he's far better than Fabres colt and Battle Of Marengo, although they probably would be thrown out of court  and there are times(in my absence of standards for Krefield) from past really good German horses like Pastorious and Lomitas(assuming going descriptions correct) to assume that the potential is for him to be very good.its inconclusive and weak, but this could be a weak race, esp if my assumptions about Bolgers colt are correct, at 25-1 i could afford to speculate |
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Oh and he's run in fields of 13, 10 and 7, looks well balanced, only 12 runners suggests that there wont be a problem
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Oh and he's run in fields of 13, 10 and 7, looks well balanced, only 12 runners suggests that there wont be a problem
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The thing about the Derby is that it the winner usually improves a lot to win his race and often the personal best is frequently found in the race. So, looking at ratings based on PAST performances can be very misleading.
Looking at the past 23 winners,the top 8 improvers averaged 17 lbs improvement from an average best pre-race figure of 109. The top 8 winners with the least improvement from pre-race best averaged less than 2lbs improvement from an average pre-race best of 123. The race can be said to be won by the horse who improves the most not by the horse with the best figure going into the race. |
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Sandown, surely you don't believe the same is true for decent time ratings? I can't recall any recent winners improving by anything like 17lbs and some have even ran a slightly lower figure as it's much harder for a 3yo to run as quick over 12f as 10 or 8f at this time of year.
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Figgis. The analysis is based on RPR's so not really comparable to time ratings. I look at both non-weight speed ratings and weight adjusted ratings when doing my own calculations.
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Sandown, ok, but the fact that they've had to improve the winners on their pre-race rating by such huge amounts would hardly fill me with confidence about their accuracy.
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Figgis. its in the nature of collateral ratings to be behind the curve and it usually takes 3 or 4 runs for handicappers using that method to get a grip on the merit of form. Which is why you and I prefer to use time with all its issues rather than collateral form, I would guess. Nevertheless, the analysis shows why RPR's/TF figs going into a race carry a health warning.
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As a win and place layer of DA, based upon a firm belief that he ain't a Derby horse and will not be effective over the trip. My confidence has taken a minor dent following the strong staying winning performance of Talent, by New Approach......
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Interesting read, particularly the contributions by Figgis, Sandown and Howellsy.
The description of Dawn Approach as a 'high class grinder' is particularly apposite. Have n't made my mind up yet but there are sufficient doubts about the favourite to oppose him at the prices (I would add the circumstances under which he was entered to the equation also). On a more general point, I do wonder whether there is something in modern training methods which make the breeding analysis a less reliable guide to the likelihood of a horse staying the trip than was once the case (or at least being competitive in a race over a trip which is not optimum). It would be interesting to know how Dawn Approach has been trained since the 2000G. |
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Sign me up to Festive Cheer.
Amazed at how the price tumbled on it & am hoping for a dry hurricane tonight to speed the ground up a bit but this is a horse with a turn of foot who ran a stormer for one of Aidan's FTO in a French-type French race (dawdle and sprint). Heffernan's had a couple of good spins round Epsom in the past, placed horses, and has a list of Irish Classics on his CV so not too worried by the jockey booking, he doesn't always ride one in the race, so could actually be interpreted aas a good sign. The boys in the stable might know if they've got one that could go close & picket for the ride, well that's my theory anyway! Got no vibe for the French and German horses & i'm firmly in the Jim's running Dawn Approach cos Sheikh Mo told him to brigade, but I thought that about his dad & he won, but still be very surprised if they stretch him out. Tactics wise, New Approach and Sea the Stars Derbies speak to me. Both times you had Guineas types stepping into the unknown with a rash of 12f horses up against them and it was presumed (moreso in Sea the Stars race cos Ballydoyle had better horses that year) that the pace would be end to end to test stamina. Both times, the pace was moderate I'd never really got my head around this until I read something earlier that suggested a slow pace may cause the miler-type to do too much early & kill it's chances of getting the trip before the trip even becomes an issue. EUREKA! In other words, try and get the wonder miler out of the picture before you even get to Tattenham corner. Coolmore'c challenge was weak in 2008 & New Approach outclassed his field, and the following year, only the sheer brilliance of Sea the Stars (which couldn't be forecast prior) lead to the tactics failing. I think they'll go this way again. Obviously Flying the Flag will set the pace, but to my mind it will be moderate, Battle of Marengo likely in the van; he's shown he can tough it out from near the front. Moore likes to put his horse in a reasonable position in a race & will surely be no worse than 4th/5th; bearing in mind his horse seems to need time to go through the gears, he'll not want to get outpaced (of the 5 his position is hardest to predict) ; the booking of Hughes points a big finger at where Mars will be and simply put, Festive Cheer will also be played for a turn of foot and a long run home of a slow pace. Every year I think they'll pull in the tricast one day, only Sea the Stars stopped them in 2009, with plenty of doubts surrounding the rest of the favoured horses this year, and the job lot of trials snared by O'Brien, i'm predicting 2 things: 1) Coolmore dominance 2) Bigger priced winner. Anyway, enjoy, it's a great ride to get here. |
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Win
Galileo Rock to win €1,265 (140s) Ocovango to win €140 (11s) Festive Cheer to win €5,140 (16s) Ruler Of The World to win €3,105 (240s) Removed selection(s) €95 loss Place Lays Dawn Approach €280/€140 Battle Of Marengo €100/€146 |
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Oops
Festive Cheer 240s Ruler Of The World 16s |
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My guess at the finishing order
1 - OCOVANGO 2 - GALILEO ROCK 3 - MARS 4 - RULER OF THE WORLD 5 - LIBERTARIAN 6 - FESTIVE CHEER 7 - MIRSAALE 8 - DAWN APPROACH 9 - CHOPIN 10 - FLYING THE FLAG 11 - BATTLE OF MARENGO 12 - OCEAN APPLAUSE |
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It'll be Christmas in June over here too if Festive Cheer wins, Kincsem
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In my opnion Dawn Approach should be around 5/1. His guineas looked good, but is he as good as Intello, who beat the guineas second by almost twice as far. Van Der Neer was useless in Ireland. The form looks suspect.
As for Ballydoyle, why isn't Leading Light running? He has very similar form to BOM and looks more genuine. I think ROW looks slow & Mars will have to come on a bundle. Surely they're best chance has to be Festival Cheer. To be sent off 2/1 Fav in France last time out(16/1 on Leturf 30mins before off)in s strong heat against an unbeaten Fabre horse (Tableaux,should be running here) screams voloums. However, it has to be Chopin for me. Watching his runs on Youtube explains why they paid shed loads for him. I think he could be a good'un. We will see. As long as the fav doesn't stay, it'll be a good Derby |
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tuckyboy, Wheres the logic behind your thinking? Tableaux finished 3 lengths behind Bravodino (who is very highly thought of) Ocovango has twice beaten Bravodino. Hopefully Ocovango will remain unbeaten this afternoon. Good luck with your bet.
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Some have noted that Talent was sired by NA as is DA and this being an indicator. It is, but only a negative for DA. If you go back to the Dosage site referenced a couple of pages back then Talent had the nearest (indeed almost perfect) stamina stats. DA has a profile that this threads OP would have discounted very early on in his analysis.
Any result with DA losing will make me very happy and a win for Fabres horse will prompt wild parties. Shrews - will you be doing an analysis for 2014 ( noting this thread is almost a year old)?? |
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lol tuckyboy you have confused a chap on the spurs files on the football forum, who thinks you are me.
I trust you are well. Still backing the Ticket beasts I see......... Mars wins this. |
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There are 2 really important questions to answer if the Derby winner is to be found. The first is, will it stay? That question has been asked and answered as far as DA is concerned, imo. If DA does win, it will be because none of the others could find sufficient improvement to pass DA, as I wouldn't expect DA to improve for the trip but a lesser performance might still be good enough.
I've given a lot of thought to the question of improvement but it is a very difficult spot. Ask Ralph Beckett about Talent, if you think its easy to spot even when you train the winner of the Oaks. Through his eyes, Secret Gesture was the superior horse.So, who is most likely to be the big improver this year? One obvious factor is the number of runs prior to the race. Its obvious really that most improvement should come early on in terms of the lbs rating. This is supported by the evidance. Looking at the top 4 largest improvers of the Derby in the past 23 years (Shaamit +37, Lammtarra +23, High Rise + 16, Workforce +15) they had an average of 2 runs prior. Comparing with the 4 lowest improvers (Sir Percy -2, STS 0, New Approach +1, Erhaab +1) they had an average of 6 runs prior to Epsom. One other consideration is that the winner must have either won or been second immediately prior . The horses which are very lightly raced (no more than 3 prior runs) and fit the previous run profile are ROTW,Ocovango,Libertarian, Chopin, . BOM has had 6 runs, DA 7 runs. Hope this helps. |
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I've topped up my BOM bet, wasn't expecting this kind of value. Taking DA out of the equation, as I don't think he'll stay, and admittedly I can't get a proper handle on Chopin, then I think BOM has almost as big a chance as Camelot had last year. I had Camelot 10lbs clear and I have BOM 9lbs clear of everything bar DA. I just can't see him not placed against this moderate bunch and I'm expecting him to win comfortably.
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Had a few ££ on Dawn Approach this morn (7/4 Lad's) think he will see it out well enough to land the Big race 2day, class will tell (I hope)
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My post above that forecast the runners in finishing order was based on my pedigree analysis where there are a possible 7 points maximum.
1950 to 2012 Derby winners: 7/7 21 winners 6/7 21 5/7 4 4/7 3 3/7 5 2/7 4 1/7 4 0/7 0 Derby 7/7: Ocovango; Galileo Rock; Mars. 6/7: Ruler Of The World; Libertarian; Festive Cheer; Mirsaale 5/7: Dawn Approach; Chopin 4/7 Flying The Flag 4/7; 2/7 Battle Of Marengo 2/7; 2/7 Ocean Applause. Yesterday’s Oaks in finishing order: Talent 6/7; Secret Gesture 6/7; The Lark 7/7; Moth 4/7; Liber Nauticus 5/7; Miss You Too 6/7 (my bet); Banofee 5/7; Gertrude Versed 5/7; Roz 5/7; Say 5/7; Madame Defarge 2/7. As you can see it is not a winner picker, but a guide. |
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Past Derby winners points out of 7 maximum.
1/7 The Minstrel; Henbit; Secreto; Benny The Dip (some head bobbing finishes here). 2/7 Nijinsky; Mill Reef; Commander In Chief; Sea The Stars (high quality winners) 3/7 Sir Ivor; Roberto; Dr Devious; Erhaab; Oath 4/7 Troy; Shergar; Reference Point (easy wide margin winners) So the points system does not much reflect the quality of the winners. |
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Dawn Approach is a good horse but not a great one. He has had a charmed run and beaten nothing in the process.
All he has beaten is Glory Awaits, Leiter Mor, Designs on Rome and Mister Marc. ALL USELESS. He did beat Olympic Glory but that one had had only a trot up at Goodwood and in effect was having his first race. 11/8 about a horse having the first proper race in its life is a joke. Lay it to the hilt. |
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Argosy, if he does win will you do another vanishing act like after your Guineas post?
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Have backed BOM this morning with hills @7/1 e/w,hard to see out of the frame here,couple of ante post bets gone already though,Magician and Indian Chief
gl all |
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Figgis
I put up my view just like anyone else. I did my money and will do so today if I get it wrong. I put up and then shut up. I will do the same today. If I get it right I wont be back to gloat. A forum is about exchanging opinions and ideas. I do not diss other peoples views if they are different to mine. I expected Toronado to beat DA @ Newmarket but he did not fire. Today I have got plenty running for me. |
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If you thought Toronado was all you had running for you last time then why not back him instead of laying the "hype horse"?
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Fig
I did but as you know there are plenty of upsets in the 2,000 Guineas and you need a crystal ball to find some of them. I like to have the unknown run for me in that race as well. Anyway, good luck and may the best horse win. |
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Ok
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Final pre-race view. Ground riding "good" as forecast.
DA has to be taken on for lots of reasons, so a big lay. 3 horses can show sufficient class and potential for improvement at the trip to win this race - ROTW, BOM, Ocovango - so all good winners for me. Chopin a "saver" because of the mystery factor. Rest are losers. |
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Just got a feeling that Mars is going to run a big race today.Obviously well thought of before even having a run last year and very well backed just before the off in the Guineas.On the formbook a lot to do but I think he might step up today over a more suitable trip.
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Thought id try and get the last post on this DA will stay and will win.Last 2 lines on the male side of bloodline are Derby winners this will be another. LUMP ON!!!!
Oh and wait to be hit with the told you so gang lol |
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GD luck punters.
Fingers X for Dawn Approach |
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DA very relaxed robbo and must take a lot of beating.
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Not so relaxed on the course.....
What was wrong with it? |