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2013 Epsom Derby
2013 Epsom Derby
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Replies: 724
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Get in there my son!!!!
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A shockingly bad analysis from me, BOM not even good enough to get the place money in a poor race. Well done winners.
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I don't think you could envisage DA pulling like that. Very strange
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The first 6f must go down as one of the messiest starts to a classic ever. I reckon you
could have 5 runnings of this race and 5 different winners. |
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One of the best ways to get a fast horse with suspect stamina beaten is for the other runners to go slow in the early stages. This is exactly what happened today. I had no financial interest, but it's a shame that the race wasn't a true test. There's no way of knowing whether DA would have lasted the Derby distance if they had gone a proper pace throughout. Chances are that he wouldn't have got the trip, but we will never know for sure. Ballydoyle tactics were spot on.
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Unsatisfactory race in many ways with plenty running on at the end and only a couple of lengths between 2nd and 7th. But the winner was the best backed horse in the last 48 hours and given his pedigree is likely to keep improving. Having said that he Irish Derby should be very interesting if most of the principals run in it.
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I buy a bike for $134 for African students at Worldbicyclerelief.com when I have a win. Today's bike is about number ten.
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One of the best ways to get a fast horse with suspect stamina beaten is for the other runners to go slow in the early stages.
Yeah. I heard them say that on C4 just a few minutes before you wrote it. But if they'd got the horse to settle into a nice gallop, it would have also been the best chance for him to win in a sprint finish. He'd settled OK in previous races. I don't think AOB can be credited with creating conditions where DA got in such a tizz. No one could have predicted that. |
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that's really nice of you kincsem and well done you called that race about as perfectly as it gets with a winner and place lays on the big 2 in the market
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Thanks very much. I can be a bit of a bore on the Oaks/Derby but I do loads of pedigree work on it.
When I was watching the race (sound down) I thought Ruler Of The World was at the back of the field all the way. I thought he was blue/orange dot, but that was Festive Cheer. I copped on about 100 yards out. I should have known the colours as I watched the trials on youtube numerous times. |
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Well done winners.
 Shame to see the fav behave like that during the near hole race  .That's racing, as they say. |
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Well done all Rulers
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Amazing when you think that only 3/4 horses can realistically win it in any year yet I cleverly manage to oppose the one that triumphs. Oh well, the losses are small compared to the enjoyment of the work.
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But if they'd got the horse to settle into a nice gallop, it would have also been the best chance for him to win in a sprint finish. He'd settled OK in previous races. Yes, I agree, but all his previous races (up to a mile) had been run at a faster pace. This time the field went so slowly through the early stages that DA wasn't allowed to settle into a gallop. Instead the horse pulled Kevin's arms out because he wanted to run much faster (i.e. at the sort of pace he was used to). The Ballydoyle team shouldn't necessarily get any credit for their tactics, but they turned out to be spot on: if they had used pacemakers to make it more of a stamina test, they might unwittingly have set the race up for DA (assuming DA had managed to get the trip in a truly-run race).
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In retrospect, Jim Bolger may regret not having used a pacemaker of his own...
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Well done folks. Another classic for Moore/AOB to go with Homecoming Queen.
Lovely run from Galileo Rock for the place money!  |
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Nice gesture Kinscem
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A totally unsatisfactory race, thanks to Ballydoyle's gameplan. That is not sour grapes on my part, as my bet clearly wasn't good enough even if they'd gone a faster pace. Having said that, the other connections have only themselves to blame if they choose to continue to leave their horses entirely at the mercy of Ballydoyle's tactics.
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The race was 4 secs slower at halfway than the 12f handicap yet the final times were virtually identical which tells you all you need to know about the early pace which was made by Flying the Flag and BOM, the latter leading them into the straight. So you could say that team Coolmore controlled the race. No doubt they knew that DA might pull very hard given that in his previous race in the 2000 gns DA had travelled at sub 11 sec furlongs.
BOM and Galileo rock were up with the pace the whole race and finished close up. BOM may have not helped his chance by making the running. The first 3 home could all be called the certain stayers in the field so stamina can be said to have trumped speed, but the finishing split was still very good. Libertarian ran on strongly and will go close in the St Leger. The winner will no doubt be aimed at the Irish Derby and thereafter no doubt a trip to Paris in October is on the cards.Only 3 runs so a lot more to come. A good pay day in the end and once again proof that many Derby's are won by horses which improve the most on the day. |
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fair play to Pricewise for tipping up RoTW @33/1...
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A really good call by Tom segal with ROTW a/p at 33/1 and Galileo Rock ew at 40/1/
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Having watched race several times I was taken by the run of MARS.Dropperd out by Hughes but stayed on very strongly.Hoping this horse will be ridden more positively next time.Shall be closely monitoring this animal.
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Not sure what I'd make of the race really, except that I had a massive lapse of judgement over BOM. The race was a farce but I don't think I'd disagree that the best horse on the day won. Whether he improved I'm not so sure, he didn't need to on the clock, although the poor time obviously wasn't his fault. I'm inclined to take a very dim view of the form until more proof. Given his connections and the fact he's still an unbeaten colt he's highly likely to be overbet so I'd want to take him on in decent company, chances are, though, they'll avoid top class company for the present.
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Figgis I was also wrong about BOM but I still don't think he was totally suited to front running at a slow pace then having to compete with DA. The more I watch the race the more I think the winner is the right one. To me only Ocovango (short of room) and Mars (too far back) could be considered slightly unlucky but they wouldn't have won imo.
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Senor El Betrutti, yes I too was far from happy when I saw him ending up in front so soon and he might be a bit better than that. Nevertheless, it was very disappointing to see him fade so tamely near the finish, given that they crawled early and the opposition wasn't great. I suppose it could be reasoned that he didn't stay, but I'm not going along with that. I'm just pissed off with myself that I overrated him so much, it happens though and no doubt will happen again.
It really annoys me when I hear the odd tv racing pundit say stuff like "the clock never lies!". Wtf does that even mean? Race times in themselves are meaningless. There is no absolute formula or mechanical process for working out an accurate going allowance. However, people who seem to believe Beyer's books (which, incidentally, I like) are the first and last words on time analysis seem to think that's the case. Time ratings, like most handicap ratings, are only as good as the person compiling them and even someone competent can have a serious lapse of judgement, as I clearly had over BOM. Glad I've got that off my chest  |
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Figgis dont be beating up on yourself, you didn't do too much wrong, however you did not allow for jockeyship. IMHO Ryan Moore would have won on any one of the first four. I think it was plain to see that as DA passed BoM to take the lead, the young lad on BoM hadn't a clue what was happening, in fact I would say he did not know what to do....... at the end of the day Ryan Moore was the difference and he saved the Ballydoyle dynasty huge embarassment. Even as the race panned out if BoM's rider had driven right out to the line he would have been placed. It was only a sh hd for the third and he stopped riding before the line.......clueless
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On channel 4 Walter Swinburn was talking about sacrificing a good horse(think it was Dihistan he was talking about in 1986).Judging by the sort of ride he got it looked like BOM was the good one sacrificed yesterday
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come off it BOM wasn't sacrificed they thought he was their best one.
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You're probably right.He just looked to be given a half-hearted front-running ride,unless of course J O'B was caught out of his depth tactically
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More post-race thoughts and questions:
1. At what price might I and other DA doubters have backed it? Truly, I wouldn't have backed it at 5/1 let alone 11/8 so little did I think it would stay.At 10/1 I would have done, but just for insurance purposes. It begs the question, that given so much negative information about the horse over 12f (even Equinome, of which Bolger has a Directorship) could give the horse no more than a 5% chance of getting 12f, and yet the price barely moved. Does this mean that the market had one of those days when it was not so much efficient as totally clueless? I thought that it must drift out to 5/2 or 11/4 at the very least. 2.Just how much of any price is down to connections? Liberetaarian won the best UK Derby trial and as such deserved much respect, yet the form was rubbished, including by me i must add, and it was allowed to go off at a huge price. It was a great run and a result that you barely see at the top level on the Flat these days, a small stable beating the big guns. 3. How important is jockeyship? Moore was outstanding in his judgement of pace, in his horsemanship in keeping the horse balanced. Compared him to Fabre's jockey who proved to me yet again that you need experience for Epsom, especially in such a big race. barzelona got away with inexperience on Pour Moi but this fella didn't. 4. Once again I proved to myself that I'm not much good at trading in the A/P market. I lost out over Telescope and Indian Chief, profited on Magician but still finished with a loss on the trading side. Might just as well have left it all to the day of race.Would have been more profitable. |
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Figgis
If I may say so, you did not,imo, make a serious error of judgement over BOM. He came there with every chance and at one point looked the winner. That he didn't quite get home and hold on to a place may have had more to do with the fact that he cut out a lot of the work which was unexpected. He appeared to be Ballydoyle's No. 1, he had been given the perfect prep for the race and the ground came right for him. The only slight doubt in my mind was that he had had rather a lot of races for a horse which needed to show a fair bit of improvement, as my anyalsis demonstrated.If you made any error it was to over-rate past figures and under-rate what a horse might run to in the future. This is a difficult step to take because past figures are firm(ish) whilst future figures can only be speculative and more subjective but with this kind of race are, imo, more important. Sorry for the lecture. Just trying to be helpful. |
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Sandown
I do not take it as a lecture and you're quite right about overrating past figures. My main error was overrating Sugar Boy's win in the Listed race last year. It was a typically difficult soft going Leopardstown card with the ground getting softer, so there was a question mark over some of the ratings. Then when Sugar Boy won the Sandown Classic Trial, admittedly in a moderately run race, I convinced myself to stick with his higher rating. These things happen, it's not a science and I expect to overrate or underrate by as much as 5 or 6lbs occasionally. However, in hindsight it's easy to see where I went wrong and I really lost the plot here and had BOM approximately 9lbs better than I should've rated him. Must do better  |
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hate to say figgis but i fell in this trap but the vibes all week were not good for the battle horse....the drift earlier in the week made me take note and after getting involved managed to salvage a slight loss after taking the 7.2...he ran as if a non improver to me and the p plates set alarm bells ringing for me and saved on the winner but no wish to aftertime as haven't posted on here but have enjoyed the read from some educated posters...
this was however a very poor derby and probably the worse i have seen in regards class since the great kris kin  crossed the line under the great mani couldn't give the winner much more than 119 myself and they looked an average bunch going to post bar the favourite whom bolger had said would struggle to get a mile and a quarter in an interview with alex hammond i believe... hate to say it but the coolmore wrap on the middle distance thoroughbred is baring out now in the derby,(i know it has over the last 10 years) a desperate shame and with none of the top english trainers being represented it is very disappointing...breeders want speed in the breed now and this is allowing these lot to monopolise the middle distance ranks and a lot of others i may add they say (magnier and o'brien) we are very privileged to have such horses but they have killed breeding and even when other top horses come along they buy them...the monopoly continues and will continue our whole lifetime |
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I agree about the quality of the race, harry. ROTW may well have improved but I don't think the race provides conclusive proof of that. He was the best horse on the day but will he go on to consolidate the form? I'm not so sure. At the moment I think he could be another Frozen Fire rather than one of their better 3yos.
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People knocking the quality of the Derby form are missing the point that the sire Galileo is producing top horses the like of which has never been seen. Throw in his grandsons via New Approach and the race yesterday was a total vindication of his quality. Leave in the winner and strip out the rest of the Galileo offspring and Ruler of the World becomes a more convincing winner from Ocovango and Chopin. In all probability yesterday’s offspring will improve again and we are in for a great season in the middle distance category.
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hc
I have to say I disagree with you re the Coolmore domination. Godolphin own New Approach and there is every indication that he could be as prepotent as Galileo. NA has got the top 2yo and 2,000 Guineas winner -Dawn Approach: The Oaks winner Talent and the Dante winner and Derby second Libertarian in his first two crops. Indeed I think we are in for a right royal battle between Godolphin and Coolmore in the years to come. |
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like i say figgis it was a poor derby but if anything i would take the winner from it on only his third start but will be taking the form on if of course we can actually find some potential in the 3 year old middle distance division...difficult to compare horses frozen fire was always a rat for me and could never figure him out but get your point
mars was slightly unlucky but if like me you don't rate the form what do we as a punter as he will be under priced next time... edges will appear after this race as there was a few hard luck stories and horses will be under layed off the back of the hard luck stories. punters will over bet them which hopefully will help the scavengers like me to try and find some edges some people think Liberetaarian was unlucky but he ran his race i would of thought he is favourite for the leger on the back of it...he can only improve but is another who is hard to evaluate moving forward...his next run will interest me as buick threw everything at him and he may hurt after this experience i would like galileo rock moving forward but his tendency to be keen is slightly off putting but his attitude is likeable if they could sort him out i like him but when the form is just poor grade 1 form it is going to be difficult for these 3 year olds with bigger targets ahead |
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Don't forget the Kingmambo contribution.
Sire of 2007 Oaks winner Light Shift Damsire of 2012 Derby winner Camelot Damsire of 2013 Derby winner Ruler Of The World Sire of King's Best; Dubai Destination; El Condor Pasa; Henrythenavigator; Lemon Drop Kid; Rule Of Law; Virginia Waters. |
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might not have been a vintage derby but it was the strongest st leger trial i've ever seen. Let's hope all 3 do battle again at Doncaster in September.
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In my note above, I should have more accurately said that New Approach has got Dawn Approach, Talent and Libertarian in his first Classic crop.
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