Horse Antepost
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There are 442 entries for next years Derby and the vast majority haven't even ran yet. But it occurred to me that Montjeu had been repsonsible for siring 3 of the last 6 winners so I decided to take a look at next years entries and search out any that might be worth following, just for a bit of fun
Trainers with multiple winners in the last 20 years
Aidan O'Brien 3 (Galileo, High Chaparral, Camelot)
Sir Michael Stoute 3 (Kris Kin, North Light, Workforce)
John Oxx 2 (Sinndar, Sea The Stars)
Henry Cecil 2 (Commander In Chief, Oath)
Peter Chapple-Hyam 2 (Dr.Devious, Authorized)
Winning sires of the last 6 + 2 new Derby winning sires
Montjeu 3
Galileo 1
Cape Cross 1
Kings Best 1
New Approach
Authorized
Grandsire (either side, with connections to more than one of the above)
Sadlers Wells x 3(Montjeu, Galileo, Soviet Moon)
Kingmambo x 2 (Tarfah, Kings Best)
Other notables
Urban Sea was the dam of Sea The Stars and Grandam of New Approach and her sire was Miswaki
Also Ahonoora was the Grandsire of New Approach and the Great-Grandsire of Sea The Stars
Therefore any horse trained by O'Brien, Stoute, Oxx, Cecil, Chapple-Hyam that has any of these horses in its Racing Post visible profile for non-members - Montjeu, Galileo, Cape Cross, Kings Best, Sadlers Wells, Kingmambo, Miswaki, Ahonoora, New Approach, Authorized
This cuts the field back to the following (un-named horses begin with 00)
Unknown trainer
00Abhisheka (Sadlers Wells)
00daring Miss (Sadlers Wells)
00headline (New Approach)
00hush Money (New Approach)
00illustrious Miss (New Approach)
00innocent Air (Galileo)
00light Of Morn (Galileo)
00loving Kindness (New Approach)
00mayano Sophia (Montjeu)
00new morning (Sadlers Wells)
00novellara (Sadlers Wells)
00pleione (Sadlers Wells)
00plum Fairy (Sadlers Wells)
00ukraine (Cape Cross)
00valley Of Gold (New Approach)
00west Wind (Cape Cross)
Authorship (Authorized)
Breden (Miswaki)
Certification (Authorized)
Genius Boy (New Approach)
New Look (New Approach)
Restraint Of Trade (Authorized)
Samoset (Montjeu)
Space Ship (Galileo)
O'Brien
00beyondthedream (Montjeu)
00bowstring(Sadlers Wells)
00buck Aspen (Montjeu)
00catherine Lynton (Montjeu)
00chenchikova (Sadlers Wells)
00cherry Hinton (Montjeu)
00cozzenes Angel (Galileo)
00crazy Volume (Montjeu)
00d'Articleshore (Galileo)
00dance Parade (Montjeu)
00dietrich (Galileo)
00la Chunga (Galileo)
00last Love/Dei (Galileo)
00liscanna (Sadlers Wells)
00llia (Montjeu)
00mer De Corail (Sadlers Wells)
00metaphor (Montjeu)
00miss Bio (Galileo)
00moments Of Joy (Galileo)
00mona Lisa (Galileo)
00mora Bai (Galileo)
00spritza (Montjeu)
00vallee Des Eves (Galileo)
Ballyglasheen (Galileo)
Battle Of Marengo (Galileo)
Dei (Galileo)
Everglades Island (Montjeu)
Eye Of The Storm (Galileo)
Festive Cheer (Montjeu)
Finn McCool (Galileo)
Flying The Flag (Galileo)
Foundry (Galileo)
Francis Of Assisi (Galileo)
Illustrate (Galileo)
King George River (Sadlers Wells)
Kingdom (Montjeu)
Kingsbarns (Galileo)
Kingston Jamaica (Galileo)
Magician (Galileo)
Mars (Galileo)
Milestone (Galileo)
Montclair (Montjeu)
Navy Seal (Galileo)
North Dakota (Galileo)
Point Piper (Sadlers Wells)
Renew (Sadlers Wells)
Ruler Of The World (Galileo)
Sir Walter Scott (Galileo)
Smoke Screen (Montjeu)
The United States (Galileo)
The Vatican (Galileo)
Theatre (Galileo)
Twilight Zone (Sadlers Wells)
Victory Song (Sadlers Wells)
Waver (Galileo)
John Oxx
Winter Lion (Galileo)
Peter Chapple-Hyam
00bright Hope (Cape Cross)
Sir Michael Stoute
00allegretto (Galileo)
00kasora (Galileo)
00necklace (Galileo)
00velouette (Galileo)
Golden Touch (Galileo)
Russian Realm (Kingmambo)
Stomachion (Sadlers Wells)
Sir Henry Cecil
00dames Violet (New Approach)
00love Devine (Cape Cross)
Buchanan (Sadlers Wells)
Parallax (Galileo)
Phosphorescence (Kingmambo)
That cuts it down to 92
Trainers with multiple winners in the last 20 years
Aidan O'Brien 3 (Galileo, High Chaparral, Camelot)
Sir Michael Stoute 3 (Kris Kin, North Light, Workforce)
John Oxx 2 (Sinndar, Sea The Stars)
Henry Cecil 2 (Commander In Chief, Oath)
Peter Chapple-Hyam 2 (Dr.Devious, Authorized)
Winning sires of the last 6 + 2 new Derby winning sires
Montjeu 3
Galileo 1
Cape Cross 1
Kings Best 1
New Approach
Authorized
Grandsire (either side, with connections to more than one of the above)
Sadlers Wells x 3(Montjeu, Galileo, Soviet Moon)
Kingmambo x 2 (Tarfah, Kings Best)
Other notables
Urban Sea was the dam of Sea The Stars and Grandam of New Approach and her sire was Miswaki
Also Ahonoora was the Grandsire of New Approach and the Great-Grandsire of Sea The Stars
Therefore any horse trained by O'Brien, Stoute, Oxx, Cecil, Chapple-Hyam that has any of these horses in its Racing Post visible profile for non-members - Montjeu, Galileo, Cape Cross, Kings Best, Sadlers Wells, Kingmambo, Miswaki, Ahonoora, New Approach, Authorized
This cuts the field back to the following (un-named horses begin with 00)
Unknown trainer
00Abhisheka (Sadlers Wells)
00daring Miss (Sadlers Wells)
00headline (New Approach)
00hush Money (New Approach)
00illustrious Miss (New Approach)
00innocent Air (Galileo)
00light Of Morn (Galileo)
00loving Kindness (New Approach)
00mayano Sophia (Montjeu)
00new morning (Sadlers Wells)
00novellara (Sadlers Wells)
00pleione (Sadlers Wells)
00plum Fairy (Sadlers Wells)
00ukraine (Cape Cross)
00valley Of Gold (New Approach)
00west Wind (Cape Cross)
Authorship (Authorized)
Breden (Miswaki)
Certification (Authorized)
Genius Boy (New Approach)
New Look (New Approach)
Restraint Of Trade (Authorized)
Samoset (Montjeu)
Space Ship (Galileo)
O'Brien
00beyondthedream (Montjeu)
00bowstring(Sadlers Wells)
00buck Aspen (Montjeu)
00catherine Lynton (Montjeu)
00chenchikova (Sadlers Wells)
00cherry Hinton (Montjeu)
00cozzenes Angel (Galileo)
00crazy Volume (Montjeu)
00d'Articleshore (Galileo)
00dance Parade (Montjeu)
00dietrich (Galileo)
00la Chunga (Galileo)
00last Love/Dei (Galileo)
00liscanna (Sadlers Wells)
00llia (Montjeu)
00mer De Corail (Sadlers Wells)
00metaphor (Montjeu)
00miss Bio (Galileo)
00moments Of Joy (Galileo)
00mona Lisa (Galileo)
00mora Bai (Galileo)
00spritza (Montjeu)
00vallee Des Eves (Galileo)
Ballyglasheen (Galileo)
Battle Of Marengo (Galileo)
Dei (Galileo)
Everglades Island (Montjeu)
Eye Of The Storm (Galileo)
Festive Cheer (Montjeu)
Finn McCool (Galileo)
Flying The Flag (Galileo)
Foundry (Galileo)
Francis Of Assisi (Galileo)
Illustrate (Galileo)
King George River (Sadlers Wells)
Kingdom (Montjeu)
Kingsbarns (Galileo)
Kingston Jamaica (Galileo)
Magician (Galileo)
Mars (Galileo)
Milestone (Galileo)
Montclair (Montjeu)
Navy Seal (Galileo)
North Dakota (Galileo)
Point Piper (Sadlers Wells)
Renew (Sadlers Wells)
Ruler Of The World (Galileo)
Sir Walter Scott (Galileo)
Smoke Screen (Montjeu)
The United States (Galileo)
The Vatican (Galileo)
Theatre (Galileo)
Twilight Zone (Sadlers Wells)
Victory Song (Sadlers Wells)
Waver (Galileo)
John Oxx
Winter Lion (Galileo)
Peter Chapple-Hyam
00bright Hope (Cape Cross)
Sir Michael Stoute
00allegretto (Galileo)
00kasora (Galileo)
00necklace (Galileo)
00velouette (Galileo)
Golden Touch (Galileo)
Russian Realm (Kingmambo)
Stomachion (Sadlers Wells)
Sir Henry Cecil
00dames Violet (New Approach)
00love Devine (Cape Cross)
Buchanan (Sadlers Wells)
Parallax (Galileo)
Phosphorescence (Kingmambo)
That cuts it down to 92
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Multiple winning owners of the last 20 years
2012, 2011 - Magnier/Tabor/Smith 2012, 2011 - Magnier/Tabor/Smith 2010, 1993 - Khallid Abdullah So anything to do with them in any combination stay in the process Unknown trainer 00daring Miss (Sadlers Wells) - Khallid Abdullah 00innocent Air (Galileo) - Khallid Abdulla 00novellara (Sadlers Wells) - Khallid Abdullah 00plum Fairy (Sadlers Wells) - Khallid Abdullah O'Brien 00beyondthedream (Montjeu) 00bowstring(Sadlers Wells) - Mrs John Magnier 00buck Aspen (Montjeu) - Michael Tabor 00catherine Lynton (Montjeu) - Mrs John Magnier 00chenchikova (Sadlers Wells) - Mrs John Magnier 00cherry Hinton (Montjeu) - Michael Tabor 00cozzenes Angel (Galileo) - Michael Tabor 00crazy Volume (Montjeu) - Mrs John Magnier 00d'Articleshore (Galileo) - Mrs John Magnier 00dance Parade (Montjeu) - Derrick Smith 00dietrich (Galileo) - Mrs John Magnier 00la Chunga (Galileo) - Mrs John Magnier 00liscanna (Sadlers Wells) - Michael Tabor 00llia (Montjeu) - Michael Tabor 00mer De Corail (Sadlers Wells) - Michael Tabor 00metaphor (Montjeu) - Mrs John Magnier 00miss Bio (Galileo) - Michael Tabor 00moments Of Joy (Galileo) - Mrs John Magnier 00mona Lisa (Galileo) - Michael Tabor 00mora Bai (Galileo) - Derrick Smith 00spritza (Montjeu) - Michael Tabor 00vallee Des Eves (Galileo) - Derrick Smith Battle Of Marengo (Galileo) - Derrick Smith Dei (Galileo) - Mrs John Magnier Everglades Island (Montjeu) - Michael Tabor Eye Of The Storm (Galileo) - Derrick Smith Festive Cheer (Montjeu) - Derrick Smith Finn McCool (Galileo) - Derrick Smith Flying The Flag (Galileo) - Michael Tabor Foundry (Galileo) - Mrs John Magnier Francis Of Assisi (Galileo) - Mrs John Magnier Illustrate (Galileo) - Mrs John Magnier King George River (Sadlers Wells) - Mrs John Magnier Kingdom (Montjeu) - Derrick Smith Kingsbarns (Galileo) - Mrs John Magnier Kingston Jamaica (Galileo) - Derrick Smith Magician (Galileo) - Michael Tabor Mars (Galileo) - Derrick Smith Milestone (Galileo) - Derrick Smith Montclair (Montjeu) - Derrick Smith Navy Seal (Galileo) - Derrick Smith North Dakota (Galileo) - Derrick Smith Point Piper (Sadlers Wells) - Michael Tabor Renew (Sadlers Wells) - Derrick Smith Ruler Of The World (Galileo) - Michael Tabor Sir Walter Scott (Galileo) - Derrick Smith Smoke Screen (Montjeu) - Michael Tabor The United States (Galileo) - Michael Tabor The Vatican (Galileo) - Mrs John Magnier Theatre (Galileo) - Mrs John Magnier/Michael Tabor/Niarchos Family Twilight Zone (Sadlers Wells) - Michael Tabor Victory Song (Sadlers Wells) - Mrs John Magnier Waver (Galileo) - Michael Tabor |
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Winning breeders of the last 20 years
Sheikh Abdulla Bin Isa Al-Khalifa - 2012 Lynch Bages Ltd - 2011 Juddmonte Farms Ltd - 2010 Sunderland Holdings - 2009 Lodge Park Stud - 2008 Marengo Investments And Knighton House Ltd And M - 2007 The Old Suffolk Stud - 2006 Deerfield Farm - 2005 Ballymacoll Stud Farm Ltd - 2004 Flaxman Holdings Ltd - 2003 S Coughlan - 2002 D Tsui And Orpendale - 2001 His Highness The Aga Khan's Studs S C - 2000 Mrs Max Morris - 1999 Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum - 1998 Landon Knight - 1997 Khalifa Abdulla Dasmal - 1996 Gainsborough Farm Inc - 1995 Shadwell Farm Inc, & Shadwell Estate Co Ltd - 1994 Juddmonte Farms - 1993 So the only multiple winner in the last 20 years is Juddmonte Farms, otherwise it's a new breeder every year. So to eliminate i'll keep Juddmonte Farms but eliminate any of the above breeders Unknown trainer 00daring Miss (Sadlers Wells) - Judmonte Farms 00innocent Air (Galileo) - Judmonte Farms 00novellara (Sadlers Wells) - Judmonte Farms 00plum Fairy (Sadlers Wells) - Milsec Ltd O'Brien 00beyondthedream (Montjeu) - Miss A Shaykhutdinova 00bowstring(Sadlers Wells) - Michael Ryan 00buck Aspen (Montjeu) - Paget Bloodstock 00catherine Lynton (Montjeu) - Catherine Linton Syndicate 00chenchikova (Sadlers Wells) - Chenchikova Syndicate 00cherry Hinton (Montjeu) - Roncon & Chelston 00d'Articleshore (Galileo) - Patrick Fahey 00dietrich (Galileo) - Southern Bloodstock 00la Chunga (Galileo) - La Chunga Syndicate 00liscanna (Sadlers Wells) - Western Bloodstock 00llia (Montjeu) - The Lavington Stud 00mer De Corail (Sadlers Wells) - Barronstown Stud 00miss Bio (Galileo) - Marie-Laure Collet Et Al 00moments Of Joy (Galileo) - Matrix Bloodstock 00mona Lisa (Galileo) - Storm Bloodstock 00mora Bai (Galileo) - Rhinestone Bloodstock 00spritza (Montjeu) - Mrs Clodagh McStay 00vallee Des Eves (Galileo) - The Vallee Des Reves Syndicate Battle Of Marengo (Galileo) - Anna Karenina Syndicate Dei (Galileo) - Commonwealth Eye Of The Storm (Galileo) - K Molloy Festive Cheer (Montjeu) - Soc Agr Gem S R L & December Bloodstock Finn McCool (Galileo) - Quay Bloodstock Flying The Flag (Galileo) - Orpendale, Chelston & Wynatt Foundry (Galileo) - Smithfield Inc Francis Of Assisi (Galileo) - Queen Cleopatra Syndicate Illustrate (Galileo) - G A E And J Smith Bloodstock Ltd King George River (Sadlers Wells) - Barronstown Stud Kingsbarns (Galileo) - Mrs Ann Marie O'Brien Magician (Galileo) - Absolutelyfabulous Syndicate Mars (Galileo) - Massarra Syndicate Milestone (Galileo) - Barronstown Stud Montclair (Montjeu) - Elisabeth Fabre Navy Seal (Galileo) - Round Hill Stud North Dakota (Galileo) - Derrick Smith Point Piper (Sadlers Wells) - Quay Bloodstock And The Niarchos Family Renew (Sadlers Wells) - Premier Bloodstock Ruler Of The World (Galileo) - Southern Bloodstock Smoke Screen (Montjeu) - W & R Barnett Ltd & Amarvilas Bldstock The United States (Galileo) - Beauty Is Truth Syndicate The Vatican (Galileo) - Macquarie Theatre (Galileo) - Orpendale And The Niarchos Fam Twilight Zone (Sadlers Wells) - Premier Bloodstock Victory Song (Sadlers Wells) - Orpendale Waver (Galileo) - Nell Gwynn Syndicate |
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So that cuts it down to 49 horses. Next eliminator is it's dosage profile.
00daring Miss 00innocent Air 00novellara 00plum Fairy 00beyondthedream 00bowstring 00buck Aspen 00catherine Linton 00chenchikova 00cherry Hinton 00d'Articleshore 00dietrich 00la Chunga 00liscanna 00llia 00mer De Corail 00miss Bio 00moments Of Joy 00mona Lisa 00mora Bai 00spritza 00vallee Des Eves Battle Of Marengo Dei Eye Of The Storm Festive Cheer Finn McCool Flying The Flag Foundry Francis Of Assisi Illustrate King George River Kingsbarns Magician Mars Milestone Montclair Navy Seal North Dakota Point Piper Renew Ruler Of The World Smoke Screen The United States The Vatican Theatre Twilight Zone Victory Song Waver The 1st dosage eliminator is the horses 'Brilliant' points. The highest 'Brilliant' points of the last 10 Derby winners has been 8 (Motivator) with the lowest being 1 (Sir Percy) Eliminated : Ruler Of The World (9) The 2nd dosage eliminator is the horses 'Intermediate' points. The highest 'Intermediate' points of the last 10 Derby winners has been 4 (North Light, Kris Kin) with the lowest being 0 (Pour Moi, New Approach, Authorized, Sir Percy) Eliminated : 00mora Bai (8), North Dakota (13) The 3rd dosage eliminator is the horses 'Classic' points. The highest 'Classic' points of the last 10 Derby winners has been 23 (Kris Kin) with the lowest being 5 (Sir Percy) Eliminated : 00liscanna (27), Point Piper (27) The 4th dosage eliminator is the horses 'Solid' points. The highest 'Solid' points of the last 10 Derby winners has been 8 (Camelot) with the lowest being 0 (Sea The Stars) Eliminated : None The 5th dosage eliminator is the horses 'Professional' points. The highest 'Professional' points of the last 10 Derby winners has been 3 (Sir Percy) with the lowest being 0 (Camelot, Workforce, Sea The Stars, New Approach, Authorized, Motivator, Kris Kin) Eliminated : 00llia (4), Eye Of The Storm (4), Finn McCool (4) Cutting the field back to 41 |
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So the 41 left are :
00daring Miss 00innocent Air 00novellara 00plum Fairy 00beyondthedream 00bowstring 00buck Aspen 00catherine Linton 00chenchikova 00cherry Hinton 00d'Articleshore 00dietrich 00la Chunga 00mer De Corail 00miss Bio 00moments Of Joy 00mona Lisa 00vallee Des Eves Battle Of Marengo Dei Foundry Francis Of Assisi King George River Kingsbarns Mars Montclair Navy Seal Renew Smoke Screen The United States The Vatican Theatre Twilight Zone Victory Song Waver If we break the dosage points down further we get the following Brilliant (points of the last 10 Derby winners) 1 x1 2 x0 3 x0 4 x4 5 x2 6 x1 7 x1 8 x1 Therefore I think we can eliminate any horse with Brilliant Points less than 4 as there's only been one winner from the last 10 Eliminated : 00innocent Air, 00novellara , 00plum Fairy , 00llia , 00miss Bio, 00moments Of Joy, 00mona Lisa, 00mora Bai, 00spritza, Festive Cheer, Flying The Flag, Magician, Milestone, Renew, The United States (all 3) and also Illustrate and Smoke Screen (both 2) Intermediate (points of the last 10 Derby winners) 0 x4 1 x3 2 x0 3 x1 4 x2 In the interests of cutting the field down further i'm going to eliminate any horse with 4 or more points, as the last 8 winners have all been under 4 points Eliminated : 00d'Articleshore Classic (points of the last 10 Derby winners) 5 7 8 10 13 15 16 16 18 23 So only 1 of the 10 scoring over 19, so i'm eliminating any horse of 19+ points Eliminated: 00vallee Des Eves (20), 00buck Aspen (19), Francis Of Assisi (19) Solid (points of the last 10 Derby winners) 0 x1 1 x2 2 x0 3 x1 4 x2 5 x1 6 x2 7 x0 8 x1 Plenty of points spread across the board so need for any eliminations for the Intermediate category Professional (points of the last 10 Derby winners) 0 x7 1 x1 2 x1 3 x1 I'm eliminating any higher than 1 as 8/10 have been 0 or 1 Eliminated: Eye Of The Storm (4), Finn McCool (4) |
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This now leaves 22
1 00daring Miss 2 00beyondthedream 3 00bowstring 4 00catherine Linton 5 00chenchikova 6 00cherry Hinton 7 00dietrich 8 00la Chunga 9 00mer De Corail 10 Battle Of Marengo 11 Dei 12 Foundry 13 King George River 14 Kingsbarns 15 Mars 16 Montclair 17 Navy Seal 18 The Vatican 19 Theatre 20 Twilight Zone 21 Victory Song 22 Waver The TOTAL of Dosage Index points for the last 10 Derby winners was 0.54 0.78 0.86 0.89 0.94 1.34 1.43 1.44 1.6 3 3 certainly seems to be an abnormal figure (Sea The Stars), and 0.54 seems to be a little different to the others so i'm eliminating anything under 0.78 and over 1.6. In the interests of ctting down the field i'm also eliminating the 2nd highest that's left, as only 2/10 have had a higher score Eliminated : Battle Of Marengo (1.67) plus King George River (1.5) This now leaves 20 |
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The 20 left are :
1 00daring Miss 2 00beyondthedream 3 00bowstring 4 00catherine Linton 5 00chenchikova 6 00cherry Hinton 7 00dietrich 8 00la Chunga 9 00mer De Corail 10 Dei 11 Foundry 12 Kingsbarns 13 Mars 14 Montclair 15 Navy Seal 16 The Vatican 17 Theatre 18 Twilight Zone 19 Victory Song 20 Waver The next eliminator is the 'Centre Of Distribution'. The last 10 Derby winners have scored CD points of : -0.5 -0.04 0.08 0.16 0.22 0.26 0.35 0.46 0.5 0.81 Therefore i'm eliminating horses of less than 0.04 and above 0.46 Eliminated : 00catherine Linton (0.5), Theatre (0.47) This now leaves 18 |
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The 18 left are
1 00daring Miss 2 00beyondthedream 3 00bowstring 4 00chenchikova 5 00cherry Hinton 6 00dietrich 7 00la Chunga 8 00mer De Corail 9 Dei 10 Foundry 11 Kingsbarns 12 Mars 13 Montclair 14 Navy Seal 15 The Vatican 16 Twilight Zone 17 Victory Song 18 Waver If all the points are totalled up(B+I+C+S+P) then the total points of the last 10 Derby winners has been 10 16 18 22 24 26 26 28 33 34 Therefore i'm eliminating any horse with less than 18 total points Eliminated : 00la Chunga (16), Montclair (16) In addition, the three most relevant categories at this level are Intermediate, Classic and Solid. The total of points for these categories for the last 10 Derby winners has been : 6 11 13 15 18 20 21 22 27 30 Therefore i'm eliminating any horse of 23 or above or 10 or less Eliminated: 00bowstring (26) This now leaves 15 |
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The 15 left are :
1 00daring Miss 2 00beyondthedream 3 00chenchikova 4 00cherry Hinton 5 00dietrich 6 00mer De Corail 7 Dei 8 Foundry 9 Kingsbarns 10 Mars 11 Navy Seal 12 The Vatican 13 Twilight Zone 14 Victory Song 15 Waver The adjusted averages for each sector (without the abnormal scores that sway the figures) are as follows : Brilliant: 5.22 Intermediate: 0.75 Classic: 12.88 Solid: 3.75 Professional:0.33 Therefore i'm eliminating any figures that stand out as being 'different' to the adjusted average Eliminated : Brilliant : None Intermediate : 00chenchikova, 00cherry Hinton, 00mer De Corail, Twilight Zone (all scored 3) Classic : Kingsbarns, Navy Seal, The Vatican (all scored 9) Solid : None Professional : None This leaves 8 |
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The 8 left are :
1 00daring Miss 2 00beyondthedream 3 00dietrich 4 Dei 5 Foundry 6 Mars 7 Victory Song 8 Waver The average Dosage Index profile of the last 10 Derby winners(non adjusted) is : Brilliant: 5 Intermediate: 1 Classic: 13 Solid: 4 Professional: 1 or 5-1-13-4-1 1 00daring Miss = 4-2-11-5-0 2 00beyondthedream = 6-2-14-4-0 3 00dietrich = 4-2-10-4-0 4 Dei = 6-2-14-4-0 5 Foundry = 5-0-12-5-0 6 Mars = 5-2-13-4-0 7 Victory Song = 4-2-12-4-0 8 Waver = 5-2-13-4-0 The only score that stands out from the average is the 10 on classic for 00dietrich, so i'm eliminating that one based on that, which leaves 7 1 00daring Miss is by Rail Link(11.4f) - Daring Miss (Sadlers Wells)(11.4f) 2 00beyondthedream is by Montjeu (11.7f) — Beyond The Dream (Fusaichi Pegasus) (8.9f) 3 Dei is by Galileo (IRE) (11.1f) — Last Love (Danehill) (9.1f) 4 Foundry is by Galileo (11.1f) — Sharp Lisa (Dixieland Band (9.3f) 5 Mars is by Galileo (11.1f) — Massarra (Danehill) (9.1f) 6 Victory Song is by Dansili (9.3f) — All Too Beautiful (Sadler´s Wells) (11.4f) 7 Waver is by Galileo (11.1f) — Nell Gwyn (Danehill) (9.1f) The best form over 12f of the horses above Rail Link won the 2006 Arc on Good Daring Miss 2nd to Montjeu in G1 Grand Prix de Saint Cloud on Good Montjeu won the 2000 G1 King George and Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes on Gd/Fm Beyond The Dream was unraced Galileo won the 2001 Epsom Derby on Gd/Fm Last Love won a maiden at 7f on soft, 9th of 15 in the 2004 Irish 1000 Guineas on Gd/Fm Sharp Lisa 6th of 14 in the 2004 Breeders Cup Distaff over 9f Massarra 2nd of 10 in the 2002 Nell Gwyn Stakes over 7f on Gd/Fm Dansili 3rd of 14 in the 2000 Breeders Cup Mile All to Beautiful 2nd of 7 in the 2004 Epsom Oaks on Good Nell Gwyn 12th of 14 in the 2007 Epsom Oaks 1 00daring Miss - Rail Links best horse so far has only achieved a G3 place in Italy 2 00beyondthedream - I can't be having the dam of the Epsom Derby winner being unraced when there's other dams with decent form available 3 Dei - the dams form is nothing startling 4 Foundry - dams form is decent, stamina questionable 5 Mars is by Galileo - dams form is ok, stamina questionable 6 Victory Song - dams form is good, Dansili is the sire of Rail Link who had the stamina to win The Arc. Dam is 'the daughter' of Urban Sea who is the dam of both Sea The Stars and Galileo 7 Waver - dam thought good enough to contest The Oaks Eliminated : 00daring Miss , 00beyondthedream, Dei, Foundry, Mars Winner: Victory Song 2nd : Waver 3rd : Foundry Put them in your horse trackers |
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Only a bit of fun really, but I got obsessed with it once I started ! Besides, it's part of the fun of racing to follow a horse or two !
Anybody willing to give me 200/1 for a tenner at this early stage ? |
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5-1-13-4-1 this seems to be the perfect stats on all measures
6 Mars = 5-2-13-4-0 8 Waver = 5-2-13-4-0 these 2 seem to have as close a stat scoring as the optimum |
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brilliant research -best way to test it ,is go back and do it for last few derbies and see what horse it came up with,using exact same process.
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I like it , i like it ! Therefore my selection is the Galileo half brother colt to Frozen Fire named "Sir Walter Scott".
Thanks for the research. |
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great effort. will watch with interest how they get on
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Brilliant thread. All forum threads should be as good as this one
Great effort Shrews!! |
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Brilliant thread. All forum threads should be as good as this one
Great effort Shrews!! |
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Well done Shrews. Any idea what the % of winners come from the first entry stage vs the second entry stage (in April?)/ supplementary entry stage?
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What a fantastic thread!!!
Shrews, I´ll be following the horses you mentioned with great interest. |
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thats actually a pretty decent shout....pretty sweet pedigree on Victory Song. gl shrews.
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Victory Song , foaled in April in the last 21 years only 2 winners of the Derby were foaled in April those were Sea The Stars , and Oath, both were in the first 2 in the betting.
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what a flipping effort
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Fantastic effort!!
Though, of course, you do realise that if your Tri-Cast doesn't come in, Eric will be on this thread like a tramp on chips, calling you both a moron and a cretin? |
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Staggering workload there, Shrews.
I believe the current footballing parlance would describe it as 'a strong shift'. |
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Or is it 'a big shift'?
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'Long shift'?
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fukk me thats some effort shrews
will be a fred of legendary status if you nab the winner from your final cut  |
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Let's not forget this is a fun thread only (as you all know).
But i've followed racing for years and I know that unless you are an EXTREMELY didicated person and have some very special attributes about your personality then horse racing can only ever be be a fun pastime, not a profession. I love to follow horses. I love that feeling of 'I spotted it first' - breeding is a fantastic science and that's why I love the uniqueness of the flat (don't get me wrong I love the uniquesness of the jumps also), basically I just love the sport of horse racing ! What better 'sport' than to follow a horse that's never run before and hope it wins 'arguably' wins the greatest race of all ?! It almost certainly won't, but i'm in it for the fun and the sport and I hope that if you love to watch horses racing then your are too. If we win, we win (and it'd be a bloody miracle), if we don't, we don't, but i'll still be back next year for another go, It'd be nice to get a big price ! |
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Victory Song is a half sister to Wonder of Wonders(Kingmambo) and Along(Smart Strike).
While the horse might have talent if he shows the quirks that his half sisters have shown he will not be winning around Epsom... |
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Are you going to give me 200/1 then Mulan ? Only for a tenner. It'd be nice if Betfair created a market for this.
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There's actually some betting on this
Mars - who made my final 7 from the original 442 entries Theatre - who was eliminated on Centre Of Distribution Dawn Approach - eliminated because of his trainer All three around 16's |
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16s - great value
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Foundry (3rd choice) runs at The Curragh on Sunday (2.10) over 7f
Also in the race: Ruler Of The World (reached the final 49, but eliminated on high Brilliant points) The United States and Magician (both reached the final 41, but eliminated on low Brilliant points) King George River (reached the final 22, but eliminated on an abnormal total DI score) Mars (reached the final 7, but eliminated on Dams stamina and ability) Last year the race was won by David Livingston who went on to be a Group class horse, but not a Derby winner. Camelot won his Maiden last year at Leopardstown on the 14th July also over 7f. |
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Rofl at the 16s across the board, books wont be happy till they completely destroy AP markets
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I know, absolute madness. I've predicted a winner based on some very flimsy logic and asked H ills to give me 200/1 for a fun tenner (expecting an offer between 50's and 100's).
I've not heard nothing back ! Then I saw that 16's market and laughed my **** off. How ridiculous is that ? There's still 400+ entries ! |
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My Coolemore MOAL reckons Mars is on a different planet to the other Ballydoyle juveniles.
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Tell the Coolmore mole that if Aiden wants any advice on which juvenile is his Derby horse, to come and read this thread
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Only 'The United States' survives to the overnight decs stage at The Curragh, so no Foundry appearance as yet.
The un-named horse 00Novellara (Sadlers Wells), who did not have a trainer in my initial post, is now trained by Henry Cecil and is called Disclaimer. He runs in the 4.05 Newmarket tommorow (Saturday). He made the top 49 but was eliminated on his 'Brilliant' points. I just wonder maybe if he's Cecils Derby horse ? |
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See your MARS is entered for a Maiden race at Gowran on the 3rd of July, i think that is the Maiden race that Frozen Fire , and Masterofthehorse both won in their years?
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Mars, as yet unraced and BoyleS going 12-1 for next years Derby. Anti Post is dead !
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