Major contender? Got to be very hard hasn't he?

dawn approach will not stay

Love the 2000G as a Derby trial, and this boy spanked them easily.

Obviously going to be a doubt over the trip as there is with any of them but i've seen nothing to suggest he wont stay.

Best horse virtually always wins the Derby, and normally when there's a standout they oblige. Sea The Stars, Camelot, Authorized were standouts for example.

Ok we've not seen the Dante/Derrinstown etc but it'll take one hell of a good horse to beat him.

Thought Mars ran really respectably given his inexperience and might well be upto Group 1 class in time but just can't have him staying the Derby trip on breeding.

R.Hannon Jr just said on ATR Toronado is ''unlikely'' for Epsom. Will probably wait for Royal Ascot.

Van Der Neer going to Irish Guineas

DA is 13/8 here after them confirming he'll go for the Derby. That's probably not an unreasonable price
but it's a bit short for me with 4 weeks to go.

Ruler of the World is Pricewise

Bloody Pricewise, i'd gone through it myself tonight took a mild shine to Ruler of the World and wondered why it was so short.

FWIW looks like Ruler of the World might go to Chester and Indian Chief the Dante leaving Battle of Marengo for the Derrinstown.

Mars: who knows? Didn't learn anything particularly positive from that Guineas run.

At the prices, I can see why he's gone for ROTW wit Indian Chief looking like he might be a 10f horse & gonna have to get past Telescope in all probability so at the prices, well, there's not a lot about... Thanks to the ever generous bookmaking fraternity.

Ruler of the World? Currently what, the fourth choice at best at Ballydoyle, after Kingsbarns (injured), Battle of Marengo (Ballysax/Derrinstown, as won by Galileo and High Chaparral) and Mars. A ten furlong maiden at the beginning of April might suggest a touch of the slows, or, more charitably, that he is more of a St Leger prospect.

Once again the question following the 20000 Gns is "will he stay?"

I'm in total agreement with jair1970 on this although I come at the question from a different angle.

For many years now I have analysed sectional times and use these as the basis of my strategy. If we look at the Derby runners which ran well in the 2000 gns there is a clear cut pattern for those that will succeed or run well well and those that will not, and this , combined with pedigree analysis, gives me a clear view that it is most unlikely that Dawn Approach will prevail at Epsom. Unless, that is, every other runner is a doubtful stayer.

Looking at the splits for this year's 2000 Gns, DA ran a race that fits with all those since 1991 with a similar pace profile in the 2000 (winners and runners-up) that went on to run in the Derby and fail i.e Entrepreneur, King of Kings, Golan, Hawk Wing, Refuse to Bend. On the other hand, DA's pace profile does not match those that went on to win i.e New Approach, Sea the Stars,Camelot.

There is only one exception that I can find that might support DA's chance and that is Sir Percy although it has to be said that Sir Percy ran to a much faster time rating and his finishing split was much stronger than that of DA.He was also more strongly bred for stamina on both sides of his pedigree than DA.

In conclusion, DA is not a good thing to improve for the 12f unlike past winners which were invariably middle distance horses with enough speed to win at 8f. So whilst not ruling out DA, I would say that at his current price he is grossly under-priced and for me represents a clear lay.

As for Sir Percy's finishing split, he wouldn't have been able to run anywhere near that if he'd attempted to run the first part of the race as fast as they went last Saturday.

AOB has had impressive maiden winners at the beginning of the year before that look the second coming, get backed for classics, but then disappear into the wilderness. Horses like Ernest Hemingway, Marksman are two recent examples.

After the Pricewise-inspired cuts, the usually well-informed Ladbrokes are biggest about Ruler of the World.

Sandown, I have DA 3rd fastest Guineas run in the last 10 years, Frankel (obviously) the fastest and Sea The Stars second best. Generally we're talking the odd pound or two difference between most winners' performance on the day, apart from Frankel, of course. I have Glory Awaits improving only 6lbs on his previous best, nothing extraordinary. You work to a much lower pounds per sec scale than I do. As for conjecture, surely conjecture is at the heart of most sectional time analysis? At least when using it to hypothesise on its relevance to the outcome of future races, anyway.

Figgis

Conjecture based on what a horse actually DID i.e. a known fact, is considerably less speculative than conjecture based on what a horse DIDN'T do,i.e. an unknown fact, is considerably less speculative,wouldn't you say?

As for DA's 2000 gns time rating, well we are well apart on that, which is unusual. Neither TS nor  TF time have him high either so I wonder what it is that accounts for your higher figure?

I've liked the look of Trading Leather since last year & I hope Jim doesn't put all of his eggs in the Sheikh's basket... Run it in a trial Jim and then we'll see!


It's easy to presume that the Ballysax/Derrinstown route is the preferred route of Coolmore but evidence seriously suggest that to be an aged theory.  Ever since Fallon showed up they have used Chester with good types and have also sent good horses to the Dante at times.  The only horse to win the Derby for them in recent years (Camelot) came out of the Guineas, as did Rip Van Winkle (ran a reasonable race and was well backed) and Horatio Nelson (may well have won but for breaking down) plus a host of other top class animals, some who went to Epsom, some who proved top class later.

Obviously Kingsbarns is out and these are the viable routes for a Ballydoyle contender:

Guineas: Camelot, Rip Van Winkle, Horatio Nelson, Oratorio, St Nicholas Abbey, Eagle Mountain, Duke of Marmalade
Dante: Cape Blanco, Seville, Frozen Fire, Septimus, Black Bear Island
A Chester trial: Astrology, Gypsy King (Dee), Treasure Beach, Masterofthehorse, Golden Sword, Soldier of Fortune (Vase)
Lingfield trial: Age of Aquarius, Alessandro Volta
Derrinstown: Wrote, Recital, Midas Touch, At First Sight, Fame and Glory, Washington Irving, Macarthur, Archipenko, Dylan Thomas, Yeats.

What that list of horses shows is that their best horses very often run in the Guineas.  The 8f G1 win is a powerful draw for a Derby type.

All this points to Mars' long term potential being better than the ability he showed at Newmarket; the Derby will be too soon possibly but it also shows that you can't be to dogmatic about how each trial fares in regard to their pecking order.

The Derrinstown has been lightweight in recent years, Lingfield might as well be considered as relevant as the Sandown trial that they ran Imperial Monarch in last year, [ie: not relevant] and the Dante is an intriguing mix of Irish Derby winners and good types.

Ironically, i'd not intended to prove the Guineas was their best trial, I had wanted to argue a case for Ruler of the World!   I can see why it was a Pricewise pick... there was no value in the prices for Dawn Approah, Battle of Marengo, Ocovango, Telescope and others.  The English challenge is looking particularly weak, again, similar to last year and in an attempt to find one that could win a recognised trial and halve in price he's landed on ROTW.

Ah, it's all good fun.

Jair, I also like Trading Leather, I reckon that Autumn Stakes form has been hugely underrated. He did have a hard race though and it was no surprise to see him run way below form when turned out again for the RPT. Hopefully he can return to form this season and if he does he'll have a major chance at Epsom.

@BJG iirc Sheikh Mohammed said none would run till they'd finished investigating, whenever that might be.

jair1970


If you add in Galileo and High Chaparral for the Ballysax/Derrinstown route, you would have to conclude that many of Coolmore's best/most successful horses have gone that route. Add in Oxx's Sinndar and the Derrinstown looks the most sucessful Derby prep for the Irish.