Sandown, North Light was available after the Dante at 8/1, not sure if bigger was available but I was laid 8s, I'm pretty sure he was still 7/1 the day after, he continued to shorten steadily in the days leading up to the race. In my view, Telescope is a ridiculously short price in comparison at this stage. I would much rather lump on at something like 5/2 if he does go on to win the Dante well enough.

You used North Light's preparation as a comparison so it's fair enough to compare their prices. Telescope is a terrible price, but that doesn't mean there isn't still plenty of value to be had in antepost betting. In fact prices like his hold up the value in other horses.

Guys, you know as well if not better than most that prices are a reflection of relative merits and to judge whether or not a horse is a good price or not has to be made within the context of this race not previous races. Like you, I'm pi**ed off that we can't get a better price than 8.0 on here (for silly money) but how much better is it likely to be? I agree with Figgis here that you either take the price now anticipating it to win at York, or expect around 5/2 on the day without the non-runner risk. Nothing to say that you can't do both either.For me, the only real value at the moment is laying DA and speculating for small money on some of the more likely chances. If I'm wrong so be it but I'm willing to pay to find out.

That's fair enough, Sandown, more than one way to skin a cat. I just think the Derby is a race that, when all the cards have been played, it's often possible to hit with one arrow (to mix my gaming metaphors), so unless something is available early at a noticeably generous price I'd rather play late. Like you, I'm doubtful DA will stay, plus there's the hard race factor, I won't be backing him.

He did it well, but O'Brien has no record of sending good ones to the Dee Stakes.  What to think?

Good points about the shape of the market and relative prices, if Battle of Marengo and Telescope win where's left for them to go in the market? It does point to Dawn Approach being unsustainably short at the moment, for sure...

That Dante is shaping up to be a cracker, as it often does.  Really hoping Bolger sends Trading Leather across for it & the market is going to be scratching it's head if Telescope fails to deliver, as many have said, he's priced as though he's already won the Dante.  I also like Indian Chief's turn of foot, and O'Brien nominated him as a 'Dante type' after his maiden win, implying 10f being his trip for now, reminds me of CApe Blanco for some reason.  Every chance he's better regarded than this week's 2 Chester winners too, so their strength in depth, as ever AT THIS STAGE looks immense. (5 minutes after the Derby when they've finished 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 8th and last, you wonder if it's so!).

Not to mention Windhoek etc...

Dante prices from PP:  5-2 Telescope, 7-2 Windhoek, 4 Indian Chief, 6 Ghurair, Secret Number, Trading Leather, 7 Mars, 8 Festive Cheer, 20 bar.

Ramruma

Stoute's M.O with his Derby horse hasn't really changed over the years. A couple of runs at 2, modest enough ratings around 80-90, then tons of improvement around 3--40lbs in their first run as a 3yr. Given the very positive vibes coming from connections we have to assume the same pattern. Its immaterial that its only coming off a maiden win in this instance.You can't expect BM's to be in double figures. So, for me, discussion before the event is warranted.

He was keen in both his races and showed plenty of speed in both. Puts enough of a doubt in my mind. And that's before we even talk about his form.

Must admit jair I'm not that worried where O'Brien runs them before Epsom. Despite having the biggest string of bluebloods on the planet he's only won one more Derby than Peter Chapple-Hyam and two more than Roger Charlton, so I'd rather go on whether I think one of his is suitable for the demands of Epsom than what he thinks, or appears to think.

Magician appears much more suitable than his other 3YO colts so far, the main worry being that the trainer runs him in the wrong race in France instead. I take some heart in the fact that his three previous Dee Stakes winners all went to Epsom.

I agree with you Figgis about Magician although must admit I can't get a clear enough finishing split to be sure, but visually it looked good. His breeding gives mixed signals - sprinters on the dam side but the dosage profile (for what its worth) says otherwise at DI 1.0 Cd 0.19. French Derby looks ideal.

Chantilly would be totally the wrong race, but it wouldn't surprise me if they went there. Will stay the Derby trip standing on his head, and should improve both for yesterday's run and better ground.

again  looks like a very small field headed by dawn approach, Obrien will have probably 4, bom, rotw, mars, magician , fabre could well send his, uk runners again very thin maybe telescope if runs well on Thursday, a pacemaker probably, reckon get your each way bets on soon, might only be paying 1,2 .

At first glance, the Derrinstown Derby Trial told us nothing. Or at least, the race did: the flood of money for Battle of Marengo might have been significant.

Ballydoyle's problem re the Derby is that their no.1 candidate, Kingsbarns, is injured. This is why they will probably run 3 or 4 horses.

Another thing about Ballydoyle is that, unless they've got a real star on their hands, even they don't always know who their best 3yo 12f colt is and neither does the market, not many people thought Treasure Beach would be their best a couple of years ago, I certainly didn't.

thought BoM was just ok today,expected a little bit more,his price is prob about right...

Very frustrating for clock watchers, as today's race was slower than the Ballysax so nothing was learned. For me, in the Ballysax he showed he could win a below average Derby but would need to improve a bit to win a decent one. He's done all that's been asked of him so far and maybe he can step up again when required, but I wouldn't go running away with the idea that he'll automatically improve again, it's possible that the Ballysax form is as good as he is. Either way, I won't be risking my cash to find out.

Figgis

I am interested in what you said about DA's pace profile as regarding his prospects of staying. I know the gist of what you're saying is that if a Guineas horse's latter sectionals are relatively strong then he has a better chance of staying. However, are you saying that the overall pace makeup of the race (Guineas) itself has no bearing on this? Obviously if a horse is asked to go faster than average early then its final splits will suffer, as happened with this year's Guineas.



I do, of course, consider the final sectional relative to the early pace., it wouldn't make sense in isolation. I don't consider that the early pace that Dawn Approach ran the first half in was exceptional. I have figures on 6 previous winners since 97 who ran faster after taking going into account. The point is that DA ran slower in his final section relative to the first part of the race than I would consider ideal for a horse expected to step up a further 4f which is a lot obviously 50% further. As I said in my first post, his profile is similar to Gns  horses which ran in and failed in the Derby through lack of stamina.

Sandown

Ok, thanks. As I said before, I agree about his stamina prospects, I've always seen him as a miler, even more so after the Guineas. When you asked how my high figure for him differed from some published ones, I don't know about Timeform or Topspeed, but I've seen the Raceform ones, which insist on using the same allowance as for the 5f race. The magical one size allowance that fits all races, regardless of rain or wind influence.

Oops. Was he injured?

Sorry Aiden, old chap. You know best, I suppose.

Nt entered in the Dante thats that so