Dante -- there is an awful lot of rain forecast, so this might be yet another trial we cannot take at face value.

Not to mention that Telescope is out, and Greatwood and Trading Leather need fast ground.

seems a racecourse gallop will be used and they plan on taking the Derby anyway!

Agree uncle, personally think there is no chance of him runnin now

Apparently got injured (cut leg) in a horse lorry not on the gallops or in his box. Surely they bandage their legs up for trave1 - I mena thye fly horses to Australia and America and they never seem to have cut legs.

Given I have a large double running up on him @ 16/1 with Dawn Approach @ 5/1 already in the bag I bloody well hope the driver and lad or lass in charge at the time will be getting a P45 very shortly.
And yes that is pocket talking of the highest order.

Lammtarra was followed by Shaamit in 96 who won first time as a 3yr following one run as a 2yr old. Going further back, Morston didn't run as at 2, won a Lingfield maiden as prep before winning the 73 Derby. There are probably others. And for those who think that DA's chance has significantly improved, the only other Derby winner I can think of which ran over 5f as a 2yr old was Generous who won the Derby in 91 who had more stamina in his pedigree than DA. How many 5f winners at 2 have tried and failed in the Derby, I wonder. Bolger certainly didn't regard DA as a stayer at that point (unlike New Approach who he always saw as a stayer. Just a thought.

Presumably the Telescope problem is whether antibiotics to treat the infection (and anti-inflammatories for the swelling) will clear from his system in time.

Shades of Binocular before the Champion Hurdle.

Hey! Binocular, Telescope: what are the odds against that coincidence?

I still have no bet but my shortlist of 3 looks like it's been whittled down to 1, as even though it would be foolish to rule out Telescope I couldn't back him now. Trading Leather has always been my main fancy, even though Montiridge didn't do much for the Autumn Stakes form last night I still maintain it was proper 2yo Derby form potential from TL. The big worry is whether he's trained on or not.

@Figgis -- another worry about Trading Leather is that a wet Dante may scupper a horse sent to Britain last year because he needs fast ground.

Ramruma, I don't agree with Bolger's excuse that his poor run in the RPT was entirely due to the ground. On watching him that day I don't believe he was going to run to form whatever the ground. I said before the race that I was disappointed they were running him as it would probably come too soon after what I thought was a big effort previously. However, yes I agree that soft ground won't be ideal as the trainer has always said he's better on decent ground.

What is happening with Nevis? he is now out to 180 does anyone know if something is wrong?

Sandown, I don't know enough about RPRs but have they remained at a consistent level over the years or did they suffer the same 'slippage' as official ratings? Nashwan's figure looks comparatively high for what was an ordinary Guineas run in an average kind of time. Often it does take reasonable improvement to win the Derby but I would also argue that 4 of the last 5 winners did not need to improve at all as far as time performances are concerned.

Figgis, as far as I can tell, they have, albeit always a bit higher than OR's. I made a study of the RPR's of Derby winners of the past 24 years and found that on average they improved 9lb from previous PB (personal best)in winning the Derby. Only Sir Percy was said to run below its PB by 2lbs. 10 won on their 4th run and 19 within 6 runs.




TF have DA at 132 ! No wonder people believe it only has to turn up.

One other thing. After 4 runs you can more or less forget about significant improvement in RPR's.Only Sinndar and Oath managed double figure improvement and that was on their 5th runs.

Sandown , actually I backed Oath on the strength of the time he ran in the Dee Stakes, which while not being exceptional was good enough in a poor year, so he's another I'd argue didn't need to improve.

Of those Guineas winners how many can we be sure failed due to lack of stamina? Golan and Refuse To Bend were relatively poor Guineas winners anyway, King of Kings reportedly finished lame. Entrepreneur ran like a non stayer, even though before the season he'd been talked of more as a middle distance prospect, however, even when he was later returned to a mile he ran poorly and never recaptured his earlier form.

Derby hope Telescope only 50-50 to make Epsom after missing Dante
• Epsom fancy forced to miss Classic trial at York
• Sir Alex Ferguson's part-owned colt out to 9-1

Chris Cook
The Guardian, Tuesday 14 May 2013 18.45 BST

Derby hope Telescope, right, is out to 9-1 with the bookmakers after being forced to miss the Dante Stakes.
The chance of Telescope taking part in the Derby was assessed as no better than 50‑50on Tuesday night, following the dramatic news that he would take no part in Thursday's Dante Stakes at York. The colt, trained by Sir Michael Stoute, had been favourite for race, which is often the most significant trial race for the Classic, but Tuesday morning brought the news that his blood had been infected by minor grazes to two of his legs.

The news counts as a blow to Sir Alex Ferguson in the week of his retirement from football, as he is a part-owner of the horse. "He was very philosophical about it," said Harry Herbert, whose Highclere company manages the syndicate that owns Telescope. "Obviously, like all of us, he's been looking forward to the horse running again all winter."

Herbert explained that Telescope scraped two legs while being loaded into a horsebox "probably a couple of days ago, I don't know exactly when. It wasn't thought to be a serious problem at the time". But the horse could not be treated with anti-inflammatories so close to a race and then came the news that his blood had become infected.

"It's in the lap of the gods now," Herbert said of the colt's chance of lining up in the Epsom classic on 1 June. "I suspect it's no better than 50‑50. We can do it but everything has to go absolutely right, there can't be any little thing that goes wrong. Any days lost now is just going to make it impossible."

Herbert's hope is that Telescope's infection will clear fast enough to allow him to have a racecourse gallop at some point next week, barely in time to have him at his peak for the Derby a fortnight on Saturday. He described the injury as "minuscule in terms of the anatomy of a horse but these minusucle things can go the wrong way and it's gone the wrong way with Telescope at an absolutely appalling time. The agony of this is, it's so minor. "I feel desperately sorry for all Telescope's fans and for punters who have backed him ante-post for the Derby. Sir Michael will keep me informed and we'll take it day by day."

If Telescope cannot be readied in time for Epsom, Herbert said the plan would become the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot on 21 June. "It's a wonderful race to go for but it's not the Derby and these horses don't come around very often."

Telescope, who had been 6-1 third-favourite for the Derby on morning, is now 9-1 with conventional bookmakers or 6-1 'with a run'. He was trading at around 18-1 on Betfair night.

The new Dante favourite is Indian Chief, available at 7-2 to give Aidan O'Brien his fifth victory in a recognised Derby trial within the space of a week. His seven rivals at York are led by Greatwood, owned by another Highclere syndicate, as well as Windhoek and Secret Number. Jim Bolger will send Trading Leather if the ground remains good or faster.

Stoute can still salvage something from this week if his Liber Nauticus wins Musidora Stakes, an Oaks trial at York. The filly is 5-1 third-favourite for the Oaks a fortnight on Friday.

Interesting that Ladbrokes are the only firm that aren't quoting Telescope , or Telescope With A Run... Considering they were the ones that pushed him out the other day. Probably nothing to it, but their opinion is clearly that he's a non runner.

It's always dangerous to write off an unbeaten horse, I thought High-Rise's form was crap prior to him winning. Ocovango looks in the mould of most of Fabre's previous entries imo, and no Pour Moi.

Personally I don't think Dawn Approach will stay the trip. Like most on here i backed him for the Guineas as I thought 2/1 over a mile was fair value. 6/4 over a mile and half doesn't represent fair value in my opinion.

In the Derrinstown Battle Of Marengo seemed to have a lack of pace like Fame and Glory and the head carriage of Recital. I wasn't impressed.

Ruler of the World is possibly more of a Leger type.

Magician looks Chantily bound if his price on the exchange for the Epsom Derby are anything to go by.

I like Mars but he has only had two runs and think he has had his problems?

I also don't get the same vibe about Ocovango like I did for Pour Moi. I just get the feeling that he's not top draw and his odds look pretty cramped now.

I backed Greatwood last time and thought a potential Derby winner should have been able to pick up that Johnston horse, even over a slightly inadequate trip.

So i think i'm only left with a few horses

Indian Chief
Secret Number
Mars (if he runs)
Trading Leather
Chopin

3 of them are due to run in the Dante but the ground could be awful so not sure what will happen there

Re Chopin. From the Telegraph:
On Monday, his retained jockey, Jamie Spencer, rode him in a gallop at Dusseldorf, the country’s most undulating track. “It was a good way to see how balanced he was and, though it was bit softer than he would have liked, he pleased us enormously,” said racing manager David Redvers.

So we know he wants fast ground and will be ridden by Jamie Spencer, assuming they do not change their minds about supplementing him.

And therein lies a problem because Spencer does not ride Epsom very well.

Swagger

A great mist has descended over this year's Derby field with too many known unknowns, let alone unknown unknowns, for comfort.Chopin is a great big known unknown. His price is very tight for a horse not yet supplemented (?) and whose form can't be measured against the English/Irish/French.We will have to wait for someone like Nick Mordin to pass judgement as he appears to have a line into German form.