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2013 Epsom Derby
2013 Epsom Derby
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As Ramruma says it looks like Magician isn't going, as who the hell would want to lay 80 about that horse unless they were in the know? I'm a bit surprised because he looks like he'd be in the mix in a seemingly open race, in fact of what I've seen so far on the racecourse I have him 1lb higher than BOM. I've seen O'Brien chuck far worse horses at the race, I can only assume they regard him as a non stayer, or he's not come out of the race too well.
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Yes not looking good for Magician fans (of which I am one). There are some tenuous formlines that make Chopin a Group 2 horse at worst so far, with improvement to come on better ground and a longer trip.
Battle of Marengo has usurped Telescope's position as the worst value horse in the race. Should be about 14s. |
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He's in the Arc (from a relatively modest bunch of entries from Ballydoyle) so I don't think stamina is a major concern. Unless he's crocked I think it might (shock, horror) just be someone with an opinion for once.
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(re: Magician)
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This injury to Telescope sounds so minor I reckon there is more than a 50:50 chance of him running tbh, if what connections are saying is exact. Basically the horse has done a lot of his prep work already, and whilst missing the Dante is a negative to his chances, if they can get a decent racecourse gallop into him with a couple of solid yardsticks from Stoute's yard I would not be at all surprised to see him turn up. A couple of scrapes on his legs and an infection. An infection is quite vague, it could be a bit of puss or soreness. We'll see, anyway!!
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Thanks for the Chopin link Headmaster. His last race was on a tight track (8f or so round) oval layout with 2f run-in. They take their time going around the bends so the race had the appearance of fast to start, slow in the middle and fast finish.Assuming a flat track (fairly safe assumption) then I would say that if the 108 RPR is a reasonable estimate, then it looks like he has a turn of foot and given that it is unlikely that the time rating would match the PRP, I would estimate that the 108 looks about right. If we could be certain that the time rating matched the RPR then we might rate him higher.Incidently, the going allowance puts the ground on the fast side.
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Regarding DA's prospects of staying, for those who like stats, I remember reading a stat in the year of Dancing Brave's attempt at the Guineas/Derby double, which was that of those horses that managed to achieve the double, every one had won over a mile as a 2yo, although I don't know how far they were going back. The stat still stands as only Nashwan, Sea The Stars and Camelot have done the double since and they all won over 1m as 2yos. Like most stats though it doesn't reveal the full picture, as New Approach only failed by a nose in his Guineas.
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Thanks for the info guys and the link Headmaster.
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Positive bulletin from Highclere today. Said he is responding well to treatment. Reckon he still runs tbh.
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Christ if telescope is out its 50/50 if we get a uk runner
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what of tableaux?is nhe gonna run at epsom and do a pour moi?same ownership as all the apob ones
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What will AOB do now? Can't believe that he will just rely on BOM when the race is up for grabs after today with just DA to beat unless Telescope makes the gig.(News more promising today).Got to be a real chance that AOB will also send both his Chester winners as well as BOM. Ocovango goes, as will today's winner but it looks like being a small field now.
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After Libretarian won the Dante I took the loose change that was available on Galieleo Rock. He beat that horse 8 lengths at Sandown, and is absoutley gagging for further than 10f, he is a half-brother to Saddlers Rock. He may not run but 400/1 is worth the risk.
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kavvie, i read that tableaux is going for the grand prix de paris, not coming here
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Don't know what AOB will do. Reckon he might just run BOM & ROTW.
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Sandown, I don't know if you agree but I rate Magician higher than ROTW, the difference in price is remarkable, so remarkable that the decision about Magician must've already been made, either that or there are a few loony layers on the loose.
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Telescope's form has received a few jolts in the arm with Varians horse just gagging up in what looked a fair maiden at HQ and Spencer rode an Ed Walker horse at Windsor on Monday. If he doesn't make the race i get the impression he is the horse who would have won the race and so the actual winner will be the horse who would have finished second (if that makes sense)
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I backed Chopin the other day and had a bit on Bravidino as The Headmaster can pull one out the fire, a bit on Magician at crazy prices in case he runs as Figgis liked the time, a but on Telescope on 16/1 should he make it as i think he would win if properly conditioned, a free trade on Battle of Marengo who i don't fancy any way and will leave it there. Good luck with your bets.
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he's only won a maiden and your calling him
the Derby winner even if not runnung in it. Crazy. If Stoute did'nt train this would be much bigger odds,injured or not. |
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ROTW doesn't look like he'll be sent for it. 11s out to 16s with all majority of all other trial contenders running badly.
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Just going to throw Hillstar in the mix, he runs on Saturday in a race that throws up good horses, with it being an open year
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Be interested to know what Figgis made of the time. I made it one pound below the figure Workforce ran to when 2nd in Dante. Ok, Libertarian didn't look like the sort of horse who would handle Epsom / travel through the race but the time strongly suggests it was no fluke and it's wrong to damn him with faint praise.
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Howellsy, I've just checked back and I also have it 1lb below the Workforce figure. I have Workforce improving 8lbs on that in the Derby, he did run a very fast debut time and I kicked myself for not keeping faith in him. I think Libertarian will have to improve a few pounds again to win even a moderate Derby. While I agree the result was no fluke on the day, it did look hard fought, the jockey was at work a long way out, I'm not really expecting him to improve on that and he might be pushed even to repeat that level of form. On the other hand, all I've done up to now is say this year's colts are short of what is usually required (DA excepted of course), something's got to win the race.
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How would you mark up the Derby as things stand if you had to Figgis.
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RMB, that's a question I've been asking myself, lol. I'm still scratching my head, which means I probably should leave the race alone but it's a race that's been quite good for me over the years so I'm keen to find a bet. Of the likely runners, on bare ratings I have Dawn Approach 9lbs clear of Magician, who is 1lb ahead of BOM. I have no idea how good the German runner is and the rest haven't done anything on the clock as yet that you'd expect from a future Derby winner. Telescope is undoubtedly better than the bare form of his win, as it was run at a slow pace, but just how good I couldn't say. I don't know if DA will stay, I'd say it's unlikely, I also think there's a possibility that the Guineas could've taken something out of him. The question is will he still be able to run within 8lbs of his best form? I don't know the answer to that either but I couldn't back him at the price to find out. If I thought Magician was a definite runner I'd have a smallish bet on him.
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Having seen all the "trials" for the Derby, if the fav gets the trip, he would not have much trouble taking care of this lot imo.
But at 6/4, he would be of no betting interest to me with his stamina doubts. |
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forfeit stage again today, so expect market to be susp till tea time tomorrow I supposel
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I was convinced that fame and glory would be to strong for sts in their derby, this time im certain that bom will beat dawn app, octavago will be 3rd, and chopin 4th.telescope will run but will be well down the field in 6th , out of the 7 runners .
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according to hannon van de neer going to ireland not epsom 1 more out
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Figgis
Like you, I rate Magician more highly than ROTW because of the turn of foot that he showed although with the caveat that the camera angles and rail movement made timing difficult and I am not 100% confident about my times. Nevertheless, he was visually more impressive, for sure. At the time, I thought maybe 10f might be his trip and therefore the French Derby the most likely route but subsequent analysis of his pedigree has made me change my mind. His dosage figures are not pointing against him staying the trip but the betting is strongly saying that he wont go. Thereagain, the market has been wrong before and it could be wrong again.There must be a chance that AOB will run three at Epsom and Magician looks a better bet than Indian Chief or Nevis. As for yesterday's times, I'm with you regarding the final time rating but the splits suggest that he may not have the necessary speed to win unless it becomes a question of just outstaying DA. His price is probably right. I still believe that Telescope offers the best alternative, if he runs, and comments that he has just won a maiden ignore Stoutes MO which is to not overcook his Derby hopes as 2yr olds and to generate significant (20-30lb) of improvement as 3yr. If he runs, it will be because Stoute is happy with him and that means his chance will not be diminished because he didn't run yesterday. I will back him NRNB nearer the time. |
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Sandown, the last Stoute Derby runner I backed was North Light, I thought that was a pretty poor year though and rated him a below average winner. I think BOM has already achieved a similar level of form to North Light. Ok Telescope isn't North Light, maybe he'll be as good as Workforce, but I think I would prefer to back the more proven BOM at the prices than take a leap of faith in Telescope at only a few points bigger.
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With regard to Obrien and the betting - the so calle drifts on his runners happens every year due to the uncertainity of just how many will run, which horse will go for the french derby etc. The fact that mars and magician are circa 50's doesnt worry me that much. I dont think we will know his team until after the irish guineas weekend, where I think both mars and moth are intended runners. He has a habit of running horses at that meeting and then bringing them back 1 week later for Epsom.
If BOM & ROTW run then he is bound to have at least 2 pacemakers, I expect him to have at least 5 runners, where else will Nevis go, surely must go to epsom. |
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since when "He has a habit of running horses at that meeting and then bringing them back 1 week later for Epsom." ?????
the only man how did that was JSB with New Approach and well we all know the sh1tstrom that caused! |
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He did it with Imagine who the guineas and oaks, he has already stated that moth will go to the irish guineas en route to epsom.
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Does it almost every year, more with fillies than colts, but Saffron Walden ran in the Derby after winning the Irish 2000 and Jan Vermeer was sent off fav after winning the Gallinule..just two off the top of my head.
We seem to have lost a week in the Calendar though. Tis very tight this year. |
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THE 2013 INVESTEC DERBY
Class 1, Group 1, £1,325,000 Total Prize Fund, 4.00pm, Epsom Downs, Saturday, June 1, 2013. For three-year-olds only, entire colts & fillies, one mile, four furlongs and 10 yards. Entries closed December 6, 2011 (442 entries). First scratchings deadline noon, March 5, 2013 (111 remained), £8,000 secondary entry stage noon, April 9, 2013 (17 second entries received), second scratchings deadline noon, May 17, 2013 (24 remain), £75,000 supplementary entry & five-day confirmation stage, noon, May 27, 2013, final declaration stage 10am, May 30, 2013. Form figures supplied by Weatherbys and are correct up to and including the racing of Thursday, May 16, 2013. May not include some overseas form. Form Horse Owner Trainer 3111-11 BATTLE OF MARENGO (IRE) Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith & Sue Magnier Aidan O'Brien IRE 2-12 BRAVODINO (USA) Niarchos Family Jonathan Pease FR 111111-1 DAWN APPROACH (IRE) Godolphin Jim Bolger IRE ETERNAL RAY (IRE) George Strawbridge Freddy Head FR 5(1)-3 FESTIVE CHEER (FR) Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith & Sue Magnier Aidan O'Brien IRE 3114- FIRST CORNERSTONE Team Valor International LLC Andy Oliver IRE 120-0 FLYING THE FLAG (IRE) John Magnier, Derrick Smith & Michael Tabor Aidan O'Brien IRE 15-3 GALILEO ROCK (IRE) Michael O'Flynn David Wachman IRE (2) GOLD MEDAL (IRE) Julie Wood Richard Hannon 51 JAMMY GUEST (IRE) John Guest Racing George Margarson 11 LIBERTARIAN Hubert Strecker Elaine Burke 0(2)10-1 MAGICIAN (IRE) Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith & Sue Magnier Aidan O'Brien IRE (1)-6 MARS (IRE) Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith & Sue Magnier Aidan O'Brien IRE 5130-1 MIRSAALE Saif Ali James Tate 416-1 NEVIS (IRE) John Magnier, Derrick Smith & Michael Tabor Aidan O'Brien IRE 4(6)(4)-0(0)0 OCEAN APPLAUSE Bill McLuskey John Ryan 1-11 OCOVANGO Prince A A Faisal Andre Fabre FR QAHIR (IRE) H H Sheikh Abdulla bin Khalifa Al Thani Freddy Head FR 11 RULER OF THE WORLD (IRE) Sue Magnier, Michael Tabor & Derrick Smith Aidan O'Brien IRE 010-14 SUPERPLEX (FR) Stall Eivissa Michael Figge GER 21- TELESCOPE (IRE) Highclere Thoroughbred Racing-Wavertree Sir Michael Stoute (2)-5 TINGHIR (IRE) Bjorn Nielsen David Lanigan 2115-2 TRADING LEATHER (IRE) Jackie Bolger Jim Bolger IRE 21- ZAND (IRE) H H Aga Khan John Oxx IRE 24 entries go forward 12 Irish-trained 4 French-trained 1 German-trained THE FOLLOWING ENTRIES HAVE BEEN SCRATCHED: ACHTUNG, AGREEMENT (IRE), AL WAAB (IRE), AMRALAH (IRE), ANOTHER COCKTAIL, ARBELAN (FR), ASHDAN, ATARAXIS (FR), AU REVOIR (IRE), BARADARI (IRE), BATTALION (IRE), CAP O'RUSHES, CAT O'MOUNTAIN (USA), CHIEF EXECUTIVE (IRE), COUNT OF LIMONADE (IRE), DALGIG, DANCE KING, DARE TO ACHIEVE, DEMONIC, DENOTE, DESERVING HONOUR, EVERGLADES ISLAND (IRE), EXCELLENT RESULT (IRE), EXCESS KNOWLEDGE, EYE OF THE STORM (IRE), FANTASTIC MOON, FEEL LIKE DANCING, FORTIFY (IRE), FOUNDRY (IRE), GALEB WARRIOR, GENIUS BOY, GLORY AWAITS (IRE), GREATWOOD, GROUNDBREAKING, HEIRLOOM, HILLSTAR, IMPROVISATION (IRE), INDIAN CHIEF (IRE), KING GEORGE RIVER (IRE), KINGDOM (IRE), KINGSBARNS (IRE), KINGSTON JAMAICA (IRE), LAKE MICHIGAN (IRE), LAKE NOVA (IRE), LEADING LIGHT (IRE), LEITIR MOR (IRE), LLAREGYB (IRE), LORD PROVOST (IRE), MANNDAWI (FR), MIGHTY YAR (IRE), MOMBASA, MORPHEUS, MUTASHADED (USA), NELSON'S VICTORY, NEW LOOK (IRE), NICHOLS CANYON, PARKER RIDGE (FR), PASAKA BOY, PEDRO THE GREAT (USA), PERSEPOLIS (IRE),PIET MONDRIAN, PLINTH (IRE), POINT PIPER (USA), PORTMONARCH (IRE), RACE AND STATUS (IRE), RESTRAINT OF TRADE (IRE), ROYAL FLAG, SAINT AND SINNER (GER), SARDINIA (IRE), SASKATCHEWAN, SATWA STORY, SECRET NUMBER, SIR WALTER SCOTT (IRE), SLEEPING GIANT (GER), SMOKE SCREEN, SQUIRE OSBALDESTON (IRE), STEELER (IRE), SUGAR TRAIN, SWING EASY, TABLEAUX (USA), TAKAATHUR (USA), TARIKHI (USA), TEKTITE, THA'IR (IRE), THATCHMASTER (USA), THE UNITED STATES (IRE) , THE VATICAN (IRE), THE WELSH WIZARD (IRE), TORONADO (IRE), TWILIGHT ZONE (IRE), VAN DER NEER, VAYAKHAN (FR), VICTORY SONG (IRE), WAVER (IRE), WILLIE THE WHIPPER, WINTERLUDE (IRE), WOODSTOCK (IRE), ZAIN EAGLE |
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He didn't have any pacemakers last year. I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up with two runners. Kingsbarns was their no.1 for the race so it is possible horses like Magician were earmarked for other races.
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Galileo Rock still in, good stuff.
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Surely Zand is the interesting horse now? Oxx said he was on target for the Gallinule and it would be very un-Oxx-like to bang him into the Derby six days later, and pretty un-Oxx-like to skip the Gallinule and start him straight off in the Derby. But the fact remains that he has kept him in and it's not a mistake 'cos he took the filly out of the Oaks.
Of all the bigger-priced horses, this is the one that could catch fire in the market imo. |
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I don't want to sound too much like Harchibald and his palpitations over Big Break, but it seems to me that O'Brien taking out possibles like Leading Light and Eye of the Storm suggests there is still plenty of hope for Magician's backers. Festive Cheer and Flying the Flag also ran pretty respectably in France lately, and would be interesting at triple figures. I'd expect him to run four or five - he doesn't duck a challenge in the Derby.
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