Horse Antepost
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2013 Epsom Derby
2013 Epsom Derby
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I'm not suggesting times are everything, but it was just an ok time performance, not much better than the nursery when the weights are accounted for. It wasn't a Galileo type debut performance and he wasn't as well supported as you'd expect a good 'un from the yard, so he's got a fair bit of improving to do. Still, he did it well enough, could possibly be better on decent ground and you'd expect him to improve to some degree, good luck to his backers.
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Both Victory Song and Waver are entered at Gowran on Monday. Victory Song is currently into 25/1 across the board
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Had forgotten about this thread and I had been close to staring another one.
Anyway has anyone got an update on Foundry, what the plans are? Did he go to the Curragh for that after racing gallop? Main point is, and I feel justified in talking about this horse as he made shrews original 92, can someone please explain for the love of all that is holy, how Telescope is 7/1 for this. Clearly a talented horse who showed some real potential, but 7/1? He's only a maiden winner ffs and by the looks of it, it wasn't a great race either. I know AP prices are getting tighter, but that is surely taking the pi55? |
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Re: Telescope, a couple of theories. Highclere hype - they make money by selling shares in syndicates so always over hype. Syndicate owned - this gives multiple interests directly and through networks - in this case Alex ferguson and his contacts; all capable of a lumpy bet as one example. These are no reflection on the horses chances; it is only now approaching fast work for goodness sake. I am a backer, 25s down to 12s but that was short enough. Several bookies are on record saying it is their worst result at the moment but 7s is laughable.
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Of course 7/1 is a laughable price but he does look a typical stoute derby horse, Iv heard they think the world of him and have backed him at prices ranging from 40/1 to 12/1.
For all it's not prudent to fall into the hype trap, the last time one of stoutes was punted in this manner was a certaing Workforce . Can't quite remember the betting for Carlton House antepost? Cracking thread by the way, good luck Shrew |
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@ go-all-in. Fair play for having him at 40s, but when people back a maiden winner for the no 1 classic @12s then its no surprise that bookies feel justified in cutting him to single figures.
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There is more to it than the price though isn't there Roobuck? Yes he is a maiden winner but he was entered for the Racingpost trophy so was obviously highly thought of, he is trained by a top trainer, he is reported to have done extremely well over the winter, he is a January foal, there are no doubts about his target race, he should get the trip (dosage is ok), (for me) I don't think the fav will act around Epsom, will have a top jockey on board (all being well) and the stable have obviously got stuck in. I appreciate what you are saying but times to seem to have changed for Antepost - I remember backing Galileo for the Derby after Golan had won the 2000 Guineas at 14/1 - wouldn't happen now.
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There is more to it than the price though isn't there Roobuck?
I'm sorry lobster but for me price is almost everything. As an example, I really liked Foundry's maiden win last season as posted here. He is very well bred, with a top trainer and, like you say, I don't like the fav, and Mars has potential stamina issues so could well be the stable pick. He also had the right entries last year but is 20/1. I need more info to back him, even at that price. You use the example of Galileo and the fact it wouldn't happen now. Possibly not but if people continue to take shorter odds than is reasonable, imo of course,then why would bookies offer bigger prices? |
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What price do you think Telescope should be then Roobuck? If someone fancied him at 12s and had waited they would have missed out - The real question should be how much are the bookies taking before they shorten the price? My guess is not much. Normally when you have this scenario it creates value elsewhere - at this stage I don't know where that lies - the French beast?
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Not sure tbh but I don't see any reason why he should be shorter than Foundry other than he has a little more experience.
I guess at the end of the day the price is personal to each individual. I try very hard however not to back a horse even if I fancy it to win at a price that I don't deem value, even if that's the best price available. If i miss out on a winner then so be it. Each to their own I guess. |
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Roobuck, I'd be concerned Foundry has not been entered for the Derrinstown.
More money today for Telescope, his price is incredible. He is priced like he has already won the Dante. Yes, he has loads of potential, but he is priced on that potential being fact. |
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Price is truly horrid now on Telescope
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I had just noticed that as well beryl.... but then he has got the Dante entry
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ive just layed telescope at 7/1 for near 4 figures, nashwan was 33 for 2000 2 weeks before race and was a listed winner at 2, tbh telescope should be 7/1 just to make the race, not saying it wont win but 7/1
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ps excellent thread shrews
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kingsbarn at 16s on here...is he out??
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Not looking good is it? The fact he didn't make the Curragh gallop was always a negative, even if this proves a minor blip in the price.
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well after he didnt make the gallop and was ruled out of the 2000G his price only went to 7.2 or so, so this now out to 16s has me reminded of the Pour Moi Arc drift.
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Now that Foundry has been declared for the Ballysax, had a small investment in the Derby for him at 20s.
A bit nervous about the price tbh for an end of season maiden winner but he won very well and the prices at the head of the market are all wrong imo. The only other horse I have had a speculative interest in is Squire Osbadelston at 66s. Thought he actually acquitted himself reasonably well in his maiden as he was so green. He appears to be well thought of at the yard so it was reassuring to see he got the Dante entry and was added to the Derby field yesterday. |
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Battle of Marengo entered in Ballysax too,will both run?
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Yup both run ^ as per JOB today
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Joseph O'Brien is hoping conditions at Leopardstown do not deteriorate ahead of Battle Of Marengo's highly-anticipated return to action in Sunday's PW McGrath Memorial Ballysax Stakes.
A winner of three of his four juvenile starts, Battle Of Marengo ploughed through the Curragh mud when signing off for the year in the usually-informative Beresford Stakes in late September. However, O'Brien is sure his mount is far more effective on a sounder surface and he would prefer for the ground not to be too testing for Battle Of Marengo's three-year-old debut. "He's in good form and he's just ready to start off. If he runs a nice race, we'll be happy," said Ireland's champion Flat jockey. "I would be a little but worried if the ground went very soft. There's no denying he gets through it all right, but I've always thought he was a better horse on better ground. "He's a lovely moving horse and the day he won in Leopardstown last year on good ground, my saddle slipped, I couldn't push him at all in the straight and he still broke the track record. "For his first run back and his first run over a mile and a quarter, you wouldn't want the ground to be too bad." Battle Of Marengo is one of two runners for the rider's father, Aidan O'Brien. The master of Ballydoyle has saddled six previous winners of this recognised Derby trial, with subsequent Epsom heroes Galileo and High Chaparral both on the roll of honour, as well as the incredible Yeats. The second O'Brien runner this weekend is the Seamie Heffernan-ridden Foundry, who created a big impression when making a winning debut at Leopardstown in early November. Joseph O'Brien said: "He only had the one run towards the back-end of last year, but he couldn't have done it any easier than he did. "Seamus was very impressed with him and we were all delighted, so hopefully he'll run a nice race on Sunday as well, but Battle Of Marengo is obviously the form horse." |
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thanks BJB,ya'd imagine regardless of the ground Foundry or Battle of Marengo would really need to win here to enter Derby picture,Foundry is wearing the primary colours incidently...
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Wouldn't necessarily agree with that. AOB horses all improve enormously for their first run so as long as they run well, it'll be their actual trial race ( Derrinstown, Dante etc ) that will determine who will line up
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They do improve but its a Group 3 on Sunday and what chance do you have in Epsom if ya cant win there,BoM appeared to work well at the Curragh recently so think he ought to be fit enough to win on Sunday,Foundry could be anything...
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Did we learn anything about Battle of Marengo in that race at Leopardstown?
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Not really been paying too much attention today, why was Foundry a nonner?
The ground looked fairly dire in that race, just proves the horse's well being that's all imo. |
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BoM did what he had to do today,could well be the #1 in the yard at the minute with doubts over Kingsbairn and should improve again,they possibly didnt want to race Foundry and BoM against each other,either that or the ground..
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Battle of Marengo
Here's a horse that has won every race bar its debut, from a top-class stable that think it will improve for better ground but who has broken the track record at Leopardstown (with broken tack too). His breeding gives every indication he will stay the Derby trip, is injury free, fairly experienced now and who appears to have trained on. Seems folks still prefer potential over the form book. |
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roger you make some really valid points about BOM - on watching again I like the fact that he stuck his neck out like a horse that will always give everything. Not a great race and I actually think his price is about right - others' prices just plain wrong.
Are you sure about the track record? The time was .68sec slower than standard according to RP? . |
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Roo
Just quoting the earlier post, which quoted Joseph O'Brien "He's a lovely moving horse and the day he won in Leopardstown last year on good ground, my saddle slipped, I couldn't push him at all in the straight and he still broke the track record." |
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Just had a tickle eachway on Indian Chief. Probably beat nothing today but quickened smartly, a bit like SNA, same colours, and will most likely head to Chester next. If he wins a trial there he'll be half the price. 33/1.
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hard to know,the Bolger horse that ran in race finished 2nd behind Foundry on his previous appearance and was nowhere today so not sure what does for form,if IC went to Chester it would have to be a positive as oppose to York...
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Any up dates on the progress of Kingsbarn lately?
Hopefully someone will put that Q to AOB over the wkend? |
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Don't know about kingsbarns but BOM is heavily backed today.
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miller racing, you must be joking if you think Obrien will give you an answer over the weekend, the horse might already be injured and unable to race again, and we wont get an update until 6 day decs at the earliest about it
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bom was heavily backed yesterday, I was swallowed up in secs when I layed it at just over 6.6 think it was for 50 quid, if youre quick theres an arb on this horse on the sportsbook site its 7/1 there
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there was a mention in one of the Irish papers during the week that Kingsbairns was in the swimming pool and continuing to recover from his setback,sounds to me like a race against time...
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Cheers sykes.
Shame about his set back, as he did look the best mid-dist 3yo colt for AOB this season, imo. Hope we see him back in action soon, Ire Derby prob. |
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imo cant see anything running in todays 2000, thatll be running in the derby, exeption of mars maybe, coz Obrien usually has about 6 in, but ill guarantee you that nowt in todays field will win the derby
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