Foundry hasn't been declared for Gowran Park on Tuesday night so he has two runners from my 'long list' above:

Renew who made the last 41 but was eliminated because his Brilliant Points were too low

King George River who made the last 22 but was eliminated because of abnormal Total Dosage Points

Both have Sadlers Wells as their Grand-Sire

He has a third horse (Freedom Fighter) who is also a Derby entry but was eliminated for not having the selected stallions in his visible RP profile

Dosage = 3-4-10-1-0 DI 2.00 CD 0.50

Therefore, he would also of been eliminated due to his Brilliant points being too low (9 from the last 10 have been 4 or more)

King George River wins at Gowran Park at 5/1. Not sure if he was seen as the stable 2nd string as JP O'Brien was on board Freedom Fighter and went off 5/2 fave but was unplaced. It was Heavy going, so probably shouldn't read too much into it as it isnt the ground he'll get at Epsom next June.

Shade slowly away, travelled strongly to dispute approaching home turn, led final 2f, drew clear final 100yrds, edging right, stayed on strongly

Yep, he made my final 7 but I eliminated him from the final three based on stamina.

12-16/1  is absolutely bonkers.

I believe the un-named horses trained by AOB that made my final 15 are now named as follows (but aren't yet listed in the RP):

00beyondthedream - trained by AOB and called Los Cabos
00chenchikova - trained by AOB and called Instruction
00cherry Hinton - trained by AOB and called Lake Michigan
00dietrich - trained by AOB and called The Ferryman

The interesting one of those is the horse that made my top 7, Los Cabos, who has Montjeu as his sire (3 Derby winners fron the last 6 - Camelot, Pour Moi, Authorized).  I eliminated him due to his Dam being un-raced, but he may well be worth tracking anyway.

The Ferryman (formerly 00dietrich)is one of the O'Brien horses entered in the Tipperary race (2.15 Saturday). He made the final 8, but I discounted him based on his Classic points being slightly unusual. He's worth tracking IMO.

Magician (made the final 42, eliminated on Brilliant Points less than 4)
Mars (made the final 7, discounted on questionable Dam stamina)
Nevis (didn't make the final 92 - pedigree)
Vinson Massif (didn't make the final 92 - pedigree)

Fascinate (not entered for The Derby)
Magical Dream (not entered for The Derby)

Mars is the talking horse, but i'm not sure if this is a 'Derby horse' race. Camelot won an 8f at Leopardstown last year on his debut, as did Galileo and Montjeu.

Recital in 2011 and Fame and Glory in 2009, were his most fancied horses in those years and both of them also debuted over 8f although Jan Vermeer in 2010 debuted over 7f.

Mars and the Ferryman both entered tomorrow at Dundalk over 7f...

Maybe we will see which is the better! I'm going to do the reverse forecast anyway just in case

Good victory for Mars but I forgot all about the race and missed the f/cast. D'oh !

I think that puts paid to The Ferryman being his Derby horse but Mars has done enough today to lead the market at this stage IMO.

Excellent thread - and while Mars dam only won over 6f her mother Rafha won the Lingfield Oaks Trial and French Oaks over 12f.

I can't believe Stan James have Victory Song in at 25/1    It hasn't even run yet.  I thought Mars was a stupid price but 25/1 ?  What's that based on ? 

May as well say all AOB's 2yo's are 25/1

Festive Cheer goes today at The Curragh. He's 10/3 2nd fave against an odds on shot who was 2nd to AOB's The United States.

Now if Festive Cheer is a better Derby prospect than The United States then it figures that he should overturn the the favourite today. Straight forecast 1.40 The Curragh :

1. Festive Cheer
2. Dibayani

Shrews     16 Jul 12 20:00 
Good victory for Mars but I forgot all about the race and missed the f/cast. D'oh !

I think that puts paid to The Ferryman being his Derby horse but Mars has done enough today to lead the market at this stage IMO.

Just seen this thread curious to know why you think The Ferryman is out of the equation though Shrews ?

was just curious tbh,good thread though,have fun

The Ferryman in the Dewhurst today I see

Where has The United States gone anyone know

up to now really dont have too much to work with for the derby picture, i have Telescope as my derby horse on his maiden win and i prefer the typical stoute approach to the derby. But the guessing of who's AOB's number 1 selection for the RP highlights how little we know for the derby. Dawn Approach is tipping the betting but i couldnt have him antepost as JSB is very keen on this gentic testing stuff he has invested in it and is a shareholder plus help develop it and by this process DA doesnt get the trip, my opinion says he has a high prob of getting the mile and half but i doubt he'll show up.
Mars seems to be a bit of a hype horse who has only won a maiden in dundalk of all places, yes the ground in ireland has been shocking but there were races in the uk on better ground if they so chose and i do think he had a set back and will not amount to much next year and i have laid him for derby (and will place lay him for guineas and derby).
Battle Of Mar actually could be a decent horse but hasnt got much hype so its difficult to know where he lies in terms of special treatment etc..
Kingsbarn is one im not sure on, couldnt back him but wont lay him, but id be suprised if he is the winner of the RP

Trading leather looks a great prospect and will only improve from 2 to 3 (i missed the price so i have no interest but will not lay)

so where does that leave us not for derby opinions a few days before the RP and with the french 1m2f G1 2year old race to come in 2 weeks time, do we have to wait till next april to see the horse that will win the derby?

I'm hoping that Steeler turns into a Derby contender following his anticipated win in Saturday's Racing Post trophy. He's already won a group 2 and shapes as though he'll be very well suited to 12 furlongs as a 3YO. He looks like an improver and Johnston and Fallon seem very keen on him. Sid James go 33-1 and I've had the max they would allow on. (£45.50) I won a decent chunk on him last time, so he owes me nothing.
I don't believe Johnston has had a Derby winner, though he has won the 1000 and 2000 Guineas with Attraction and Mr Baileys. Mr Baileys also won the Royal Lodge (the race that Steeler won this year). Has Johnston had many Derby runners?

Just an update on the four i'm tracking

All four (Victory Song, Waver, Foundry and Dei) don't look like they'll see a racecourse this season.  Foundry has been entered in a few races recently but not actually raced. Dei has had a name change and is now called League Of Nations, he was a 7l 4th of 8 behind Magician at The Curragh recently, so he probably isn't that special.

All of them apart from Waver are entered in the Epsom Derby and Irish Derby. Waver is only entered at Epsom.

The other one I wanted to track is Montjeu x Beyond The Dream, who made my top 7.  I have read that he is called 'Los Cabos' but his name isn't appearing on the RP search so i'm not sure if that name is right. If anybody knows what's happened with him can they let me know on this thread. Cheers.

Foundry runs in a very hot looking maiden in an hour. Heavy going and all the principals looking very easy to back at 6 and up.

In honour of Shrew I shall have a small punt on Foundry.  Half brother done well on soft going this year for same stable.

Very impressive indeed.   Drew right away in last furlong and looked l ike firmer ground would suit. Will carry my Derby punt.

This represents a quandary for me.

As said on other threads taking this kind of price for a maiden winner goes against the grain. Problem is Foundry travelled so well, always looking like a very good animal, stretched away and unlike Kingsbarns, who looks like he needs soft ground, looks like he'll have the balance to handle Epsom and better ground.

He looks like the best Derby prospect seen this year to me so shall include him in my retirement Classic L15 - will sleep on whether backing him individually