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There are 442 entries for next years Derby and the vast majority haven't even ran yet. But it occurred to me that Montjeu had been repsonsible for siring 3 of the last 6 winners so I decided to take a look at next years entries and search out any that might be worth following, just for a bit of fun
Trainers with multiple winners in the last 20 years
Aidan O'Brien 3 (Galileo, High Chaparral, Camelot)
Sir Michael Stoute 3 (Kris Kin, North Light, Workforce)
John Oxx 2 (Sinndar, Sea The Stars)
Henry Cecil 2 (Commander In Chief, Oath)
Peter Chapple-Hyam 2 (Dr.Devious, Authorized)
Winning sires of the last 6 + 2 new Derby winning sires
Montjeu 3
Galileo 1
Cape Cross 1
Kings Best 1
New Approach
Authorized
Grandsire (either side, with connections to more than one of the above)
Sadlers Wells x 3(Montjeu, Galileo, Soviet Moon)
Kingmambo x 2 (Tarfah, Kings Best)
Other notables
Urban Sea was the dam of Sea The Stars and Grandam of New Approach and her sire was Miswaki
Also Ahonoora was the Grandsire of New Approach and the Great-Grandsire of Sea The Stars
Therefore any horse trained by O'Brien, Stoute, Oxx, Cecil, Chapple-Hyam that has any of these horses in its Racing Post visible profile for non-members - Montjeu, Galileo, Cape Cross, Kings Best, Sadlers Wells, Kingmambo, Miswaki, Ahonoora, New Approach, Authorized
This cuts the field back to the following (un-named horses begin with 00)
Unknown trainer
00Abhisheka (Sadlers Wells)
00daring Miss (Sadlers Wells)
00headline (New Approach)
00hush Money (New Approach)
00illustrious Miss (New Approach)
00innocent Air (Galileo)
00light Of Morn (Galileo)
00loving Kindness (New Approach)
00mayano Sophia (Montjeu)
00new morning (Sadlers Wells)
00novellara (Sadlers Wells)
00pleione (Sadlers Wells)
00plum Fairy (Sadlers Wells)
00ukraine (Cape Cross)
00valley Of Gold (New Approach)
00west Wind (Cape Cross)
Authorship (Authorized)
Breden (Miswaki)
Certification (Authorized)
Genius Boy (New Approach)
New Look (New Approach)
Restraint Of Trade (Authorized)
Samoset (Montjeu)
Space Ship (Galileo)
O'Brien
00beyondthedream (Montjeu)
00bowstring(Sadlers Wells)
00buck Aspen (Montjeu)
00catherine Lynton (Montjeu)
00chenchikova (Sadlers Wells)
00cherry Hinton (Montjeu)
00cozzenes Angel (Galileo)
00crazy Volume (Montjeu)
00d'Articleshore (Galileo)
00dance Parade (Montjeu)
00dietrich (Galileo)
00la Chunga (Galileo)
00last Love/Dei (Galileo)
00liscanna (Sadlers Wells)
00llia (Montjeu)
00mer De Corail (Sadlers Wells)
00metaphor (Montjeu)
00miss Bio (Galileo)
00moments Of Joy (Galileo)
00mona Lisa (Galileo)
00mora Bai (Galileo)
00spritza (Montjeu)
00vallee Des Eves (Galileo)
Ballyglasheen (Galileo)
Battle Of Marengo (Galileo)
Dei (Galileo)
Everglades Island (Montjeu)
Eye Of The Storm (Galileo)
Festive Cheer (Montjeu)
Finn McCool (Galileo)
Flying The Flag (Galileo)
Foundry (Galileo)
Francis Of Assisi (Galileo)
Illustrate (Galileo)
King George River (Sadlers Wells)
Kingdom (Montjeu)
Kingsbarns (Galileo)
Kingston Jamaica (Galileo)
Magician (Galileo)
Mars (Galileo)
Milestone (Galileo)
Montclair (Montjeu)
Navy Seal (Galileo)
North Dakota (Galileo)
Point Piper (Sadlers Wells)
Renew (Sadlers Wells)
Ruler Of The World (Galileo)
Sir Walter Scott (Galileo)
Smoke Screen (Montjeu)
The United States (Galileo)
The Vatican (Galileo)
Theatre (Galileo)
Twilight Zone (Sadlers Wells)
Victory Song (Sadlers Wells)
Waver (Galileo)
John Oxx
Winter Lion (Galileo)
Peter Chapple-Hyam
00bright Hope (Cape Cross)
Sir Michael Stoute
00allegretto (Galileo)
00kasora (Galileo)
00necklace (Galileo)
00velouette (Galileo)
Golden Touch (Galileo)
Russian Realm (Kingmambo)
Stomachion (Sadlers Wells)
Sir Henry Cecil
00dames Violet (New Approach)
00love Devine (Cape Cross)
Buchanan (Sadlers Wells)
Parallax (Galileo)
Phosphorescence (Kingmambo)
That cuts it down to 92
Trainers with multiple winners in the last 20 years
Aidan O'Brien 3 (Galileo, High Chaparral, Camelot)
Sir Michael Stoute 3 (Kris Kin, North Light, Workforce)
John Oxx 2 (Sinndar, Sea The Stars)
Henry Cecil 2 (Commander In Chief, Oath)
Peter Chapple-Hyam 2 (Dr.Devious, Authorized)
Winning sires of the last 6 + 2 new Derby winning sires
Montjeu 3
Galileo 1
Cape Cross 1
Kings Best 1
New Approach
Authorized
Grandsire (either side, with connections to more than one of the above)
Sadlers Wells x 3(Montjeu, Galileo, Soviet Moon)
Kingmambo x 2 (Tarfah, Kings Best)
Other notables
Urban Sea was the dam of Sea The Stars and Grandam of New Approach and her sire was Miswaki
Also Ahonoora was the Grandsire of New Approach and the Great-Grandsire of Sea The Stars
Therefore any horse trained by O'Brien, Stoute, Oxx, Cecil, Chapple-Hyam that has any of these horses in its Racing Post visible profile for non-members - Montjeu, Galileo, Cape Cross, Kings Best, Sadlers Wells, Kingmambo, Miswaki, Ahonoora, New Approach, Authorized
This cuts the field back to the following (un-named horses begin with 00)
Unknown trainer
00Abhisheka (Sadlers Wells)
00daring Miss (Sadlers Wells)
00headline (New Approach)
00hush Money (New Approach)
00illustrious Miss (New Approach)
00innocent Air (Galileo)
00light Of Morn (Galileo)
00loving Kindness (New Approach)
00mayano Sophia (Montjeu)
00new morning (Sadlers Wells)
00novellara (Sadlers Wells)
00pleione (Sadlers Wells)
00plum Fairy (Sadlers Wells)
00ukraine (Cape Cross)
00valley Of Gold (New Approach)
00west Wind (Cape Cross)
Authorship (Authorized)
Breden (Miswaki)
Certification (Authorized)
Genius Boy (New Approach)
New Look (New Approach)
Restraint Of Trade (Authorized)
Samoset (Montjeu)
Space Ship (Galileo)
O'Brien
00beyondthedream (Montjeu)
00bowstring(Sadlers Wells)
00buck Aspen (Montjeu)
00catherine Lynton (Montjeu)
00chenchikova (Sadlers Wells)
00cherry Hinton (Montjeu)
00cozzenes Angel (Galileo)
00crazy Volume (Montjeu)
00d'Articleshore (Galileo)
00dance Parade (Montjeu)
00dietrich (Galileo)
00la Chunga (Galileo)
00last Love/Dei (Galileo)
00liscanna (Sadlers Wells)
00llia (Montjeu)
00mer De Corail (Sadlers Wells)
00metaphor (Montjeu)
00miss Bio (Galileo)
00moments Of Joy (Galileo)
00mona Lisa (Galileo)
00mora Bai (Galileo)
00spritza (Montjeu)
00vallee Des Eves (Galileo)
Ballyglasheen (Galileo)
Battle Of Marengo (Galileo)
Dei (Galileo)
Everglades Island (Montjeu)
Eye Of The Storm (Galileo)
Festive Cheer (Montjeu)
Finn McCool (Galileo)
Flying The Flag (Galileo)
Foundry (Galileo)
Francis Of Assisi (Galileo)
Illustrate (Galileo)
King George River (Sadlers Wells)
Kingdom (Montjeu)
Kingsbarns (Galileo)
Kingston Jamaica (Galileo)
Magician (Galileo)
Mars (Galileo)
Milestone (Galileo)
Montclair (Montjeu)
Navy Seal (Galileo)
North Dakota (Galileo)
Point Piper (Sadlers Wells)
Renew (Sadlers Wells)
Ruler Of The World (Galileo)
Sir Walter Scott (Galileo)
Smoke Screen (Montjeu)
The United States (Galileo)
The Vatican (Galileo)
Theatre (Galileo)
Twilight Zone (Sadlers Wells)
Victory Song (Sadlers Wells)
Waver (Galileo)
John Oxx
Winter Lion (Galileo)
Peter Chapple-Hyam
00bright Hope (Cape Cross)
Sir Michael Stoute
00allegretto (Galileo)
00kasora (Galileo)
00necklace (Galileo)
00velouette (Galileo)
Golden Touch (Galileo)
Russian Realm (Kingmambo)
Stomachion (Sadlers Wells)
Sir Henry Cecil
00dames Violet (New Approach)
00love Devine (Cape Cross)
Buchanan (Sadlers Wells)
Parallax (Galileo)
Phosphorescence (Kingmambo)
That cuts it down to 92
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My post above that forecast the runners in finishing order was based on my pedigree analysis where there are a possible 7 points maximum.
1950 to 2012 Derby winners:
7/7 21 winners
6/7 21
5/7 4
4/7 3
3/7 5
2/7 4
1/7 4
0/7 0
Derby
7/7: Ocovango; Galileo Rock; Mars.
6/7: Ruler Of The World; Libertarian; Festive Cheer; Mirsaale
5/7: Dawn Approach; Chopin
4/7 Flying The Flag 4/7; 2/7 Battle Of Marengo 2/7; 2/7 Ocean Applause.
Yesterday’s Oaks in finishing order:
Talent 6/7; Secret Gesture 6/7; The Lark 7/7; Moth 4/7; Liber Nauticus 5/7; Miss You Too 6/7 (my bet); Banofee 5/7; Gertrude Versed 5/7; Roz 5/7; Say 5/7; Madame Defarge 2/7.
As you can see it is not a winner picker, but a guide.
1950 to 2012 Derby winners:
7/7 21 winners
6/7 21
5/7 4
4/7 3
3/7 5
2/7 4
1/7 4
0/7 0
Derby
7/7: Ocovango; Galileo Rock; Mars.
6/7: Ruler Of The World; Libertarian; Festive Cheer; Mirsaale
5/7: Dawn Approach; Chopin
4/7 Flying The Flag 4/7; 2/7 Battle Of Marengo 2/7; 2/7 Ocean Applause.
Yesterday’s Oaks in finishing order:
Talent 6/7; Secret Gesture 6/7; The Lark 7/7; Moth 4/7; Liber Nauticus 5/7; Miss You Too 6/7 (my bet); Banofee 5/7; Gertrude Versed 5/7; Roz 5/7; Say 5/7; Madame Defarge 2/7.
As you can see it is not a winner picker, but a guide.
Past Derby winners points out of 7 maximum.
1/7 The Minstrel; Henbit; Secreto; Benny The Dip (some head bobbing finishes here).
2/7 Nijinsky; Mill Reef; Commander In Chief; Sea The Stars (high quality winners)
3/7 Sir Ivor; Roberto; Dr Devious; Erhaab; Oath
4/7 Troy; Shergar; Reference Point (easy wide margin winners)
So the points system does not much reflect the quality of the winners.
1/7 The Minstrel; Henbit; Secreto; Benny The Dip (some head bobbing finishes here).
2/7 Nijinsky; Mill Reef; Commander In Chief; Sea The Stars (high quality winners)
3/7 Sir Ivor; Roberto; Dr Devious; Erhaab; Oath
4/7 Troy; Shergar; Reference Point (easy wide margin winners)
So the points system does not much reflect the quality of the winners.
Dawn Approach is a good horse but not a great one. He has had a charmed run and beaten nothing in the process.
All he has beaten is Glory Awaits, Leiter Mor, Designs on Rome and Mister Marc. ALL USELESS.
He did beat Olympic Glory but that one had had only a trot up at Goodwood and in effect was having his first race.
11/8 about a horse having the first proper race in its life is a joke.
Lay it to the hilt.
All he has beaten is Glory Awaits, Leiter Mor, Designs on Rome and Mister Marc. ALL USELESS.
He did beat Olympic Glory but that one had had only a trot up at Goodwood and in effect was having his first race.
11/8 about a horse having the first proper race in its life is a joke.
Lay it to the hilt.
Argosy, if he does win will you do another vanishing act like after your Guineas post?
Have backed BOM this morning with hills @7/1 e/w,hard to see out of the frame here,couple of ante post bets gone already though,Magician and Indian Chief
gl all
gl all
Figgis
I put up my view just like anyone else. I did my money and will do so today if I get it wrong.
I put up and then shut up. I will do the same today. If I get it right I wont be back to gloat.
A forum is about exchanging opinions and ideas. I do not diss other peoples views if they are different to mine.
I expected Toronado to beat DA @ Newmarket but he did not fire.
Today I have got plenty running for me.
I put up my view just like anyone else. I did my money and will do so today if I get it wrong.
I put up and then shut up. I will do the same today. If I get it right I wont be back to gloat.
A forum is about exchanging opinions and ideas. I do not diss other peoples views if they are different to mine.
I expected Toronado to beat DA @ Newmarket but he did not fire.
Today I have got plenty running for me.
If you thought Toronado was all you had running for you last time then why not back him instead of laying the "hype horse"?
Fig
I did but as you know there are plenty of upsets in the 2,000 Guineas and you need a crystal ball to find some of them.
I like to have the unknown run for me in that race as well.
Anyway, good luck and may the best horse win.
I did but as you know there are plenty of upsets in the 2,000 Guineas and you need a crystal ball to find some of them.
I like to have the unknown run for me in that race as well.
Anyway, good luck and may the best horse win.
Final pre-race view. Ground riding "good" as forecast.
DA has to be taken on for lots of reasons, so a big lay.
3 horses can show sufficient class and potential for improvement at the trip to win this race - ROTW, BOM, Ocovango - so all good winners for me.
Chopin a "saver" because of the mystery factor.
Rest are losers.
DA has to be taken on for lots of reasons, so a big lay.
3 horses can show sufficient class and potential for improvement at the trip to win this race - ROTW, BOM, Ocovango - so all good winners for me.
Chopin a "saver" because of the mystery factor.
Rest are losers.
Just got a feeling that Mars is going to run a big race today.Obviously well thought of before even having a run last year and very well backed just before the off in the Guineas.On the formbook a lot to do but I think he might step up today over a more suitable trip.
Thought id try and get the last post on this DA will stay and will win.Last 2 lines on the male side of bloodline are Derby winners this will be another. LUMP ON!!!!
Oh and wait to be hit with the told you so gang lol
Oh and wait to be hit with the told you so gang lol
A shockingly bad analysis from me, BOM not even good enough to get the place money in a poor race. Well done winners.
I don't think you could envisage DA pulling like that. Very strange
The first 6f must go down as one of the messiest starts to a classic ever. I reckon you
could have 5 runnings of this race and 5 different winners.
could have 5 runnings of this race and 5 different winners.
One of the best ways to get a fast horse with suspect stamina beaten is for the other runners to go slow in the early stages. This is exactly what happened today. I had no financial interest, but it's a shame that the race wasn't a true test. There's no way of knowing whether DA would have lasted the Derby distance if they had gone a proper pace throughout. Chances are that he wouldn't have got the trip, but we will never know for sure. Ballydoyle tactics were spot on.
Unsatisfactory race in many ways with plenty running on at the end and only a couple of lengths between 2nd and 7th. But the winner was the best backed horse in the last 48 hours and given his pedigree is likely to keep improving. Having said that he Irish Derby should be very interesting if most of the principals run in it.
I buy a bike for $134 for African students at Worldbicyclerelief.com when I have a win. Today's bike is about number ten.
One of the best ways to get a fast horse with suspect stamina beaten is for the other runners to go slow in the early stages.
Yeah. I heard them say that on C4 just a few minutes before you wrote it.
But if they'd got the horse to settle into a nice gallop, it would have also
been the best chance for him to win in a sprint finish. He'd settled OK in
previous races. I don't think AOB can be credited with creating conditions
where DA got in such a tizz. No one could have predicted that.
Yeah. I heard them say that on C4 just a few minutes before you wrote it.
But if they'd got the horse to settle into a nice gallop, it would have also
been the best chance for him to win in a sprint finish. He'd settled OK in
previous races. I don't think AOB can be credited with creating conditions
where DA got in such a tizz. No one could have predicted that.
that's really nice of you kincsem and well done you called that race about as perfectly as it gets with a winner and place lays on the big 2 in the market
Thanks very much. I can be a bit of a bore on the Oaks/Derby but I do loads of pedigree work on it.
When I was watching the race (sound down) I thought Ruler Of The World was at the back of the field all the way. I thought he was blue/orange dot, but that was Festive Cheer. I copped on about 100 yards out. I should have known the colours as I watched the trials on youtube numerous times.
When I was watching the race (sound down) I thought Ruler Of The World was at the back of the field all the way. I thought he was blue/orange dot, but that was Festive Cheer. I copped on about 100 yards out. I should have known the colours as I watched the trials on youtube numerous times.
Well done winners.
Shame to see the fav behave like that during the near hole race
.
That's racing, as they say.
Shame to see the fav behave like that during the near hole race
.That's racing, as they say.
Amazing when you think that only 3/4 horses can realistically win it in any year yet I cleverly manage to oppose the one that triumphs. Oh well, the losses are small compared to the enjoyment of the work.
But if they'd got the horse to settle into a nice gallop, it would have also been the best chance for him to win in a sprint finish. He'd settled OK in previous races. Yes, I agree, but all his previous races (up to a mile) had been run at a faster pace. This time the field went so slowly through the early stages that DA wasn't allowed to settle into a gallop. Instead the horse pulled Kevin's arms out because he wanted to run much faster (i.e. at the sort of pace he was used to). The Ballydoyle team shouldn't necessarily get any credit for their tactics, but they turned out to be spot on: if they had used pacemakers to make it more of a stamina test, they might unwittingly have set the race up for DA (assuming DA had managed to get the trip in a truly-run race).
In retrospect, Jim Bolger may regret not having used a pacemaker of his own...
Well done folks. Another classic for Moore/AOB to go with Homecoming Queen.
Lovely run from Galileo Rock for the place money!
Lovely run from Galileo Rock for the place money!
A totally unsatisfactory race, thanks to Ballydoyle's gameplan. That is not sour grapes on my part, as my bet clearly wasn't good enough even if they'd gone a faster pace. Having said that, the other connections have only themselves to blame if they choose to continue to leave their horses entirely at the mercy of Ballydoyle's tactics.
The race was 4 secs slower at halfway than the 12f handicap yet the final times were virtually identical which tells you all you need to know about the early pace which was made by Flying the Flag and BOM, the latter leading them into the straight. So you could say that team Coolmore controlled the race. No doubt they knew that DA might pull very hard given that in his previous race in the 2000 gns DA had travelled at sub 11 sec furlongs.
BOM and Galileo rock were up with the pace the whole race and finished close up. BOM may have not helped his chance by making the running. The first 3 home could all be called the certain stayers in the field so stamina can be said to have trumped speed, but the finishing split was still very good. Libertarian ran on strongly and will go close in the St Leger. The winner will no doubt be aimed at the Irish Derby and thereafter no doubt a trip to Paris in October is on the cards.Only 3 runs so a lot more to come.
A good pay day in the end and once again proof that many Derby's are won by horses which improve the most on the day.
BOM and Galileo rock were up with the pace the whole race and finished close up. BOM may have not helped his chance by making the running. The first 3 home could all be called the certain stayers in the field so stamina can be said to have trumped speed, but the finishing split was still very good. Libertarian ran on strongly and will go close in the St Leger. The winner will no doubt be aimed at the Irish Derby and thereafter no doubt a trip to Paris in October is on the cards.Only 3 runs so a lot more to come.
A good pay day in the end and once again proof that many Derby's are won by horses which improve the most on the day.
A really good call by Tom segal with ROTW a/p at 33/1 and Galileo Rock ew at 40/1/
Having watched race several times I was taken by the run of MARS.Dropperd out by Hughes but stayed on very strongly.Hoping this horse will be ridden more positively next time.Shall be closely monitoring this animal.
Not sure what I'd make of the race really, except that I had a massive lapse of judgement over BOM. The race was a farce but I don't think I'd disagree that the best horse on the day won. Whether he improved I'm not so sure, he didn't need to on the clock, although the poor time obviously wasn't his fault. I'm inclined to take a very dim view of the form until more proof. Given his connections and the fact he's still an unbeaten colt he's highly likely to be overbet so I'd want to take him on in decent company, chances are, though, they'll avoid top class company for the present.
Figgis I was also wrong about BOM but I still don't think he was totally suited to front running at a slow pace then having to compete with DA. The more I watch the race the more I think the winner is the right one. To me only Ocovango (short of room) and Mars (too far back) could be considered slightly unlucky but they wouldn't have won imo.
Senor El Betrutti, yes I too was far from happy when I saw him ending up in front so soon and he might be a bit better than that. Nevertheless, it was very disappointing to see him fade so tamely near the finish, given that they crawled early and the opposition wasn't great. I suppose it could be reasoned that he didn't stay, but I'm not going along with that. I'm just pissed off with myself that I overrated him so much, it happens though and no doubt will happen again.
It really annoys me when I hear the odd tv racing pundit say stuff like "the clock never lies!". Wtf does that even mean? Race times in themselves are meaningless. There is no absolute formula or mechanical process for working out an accurate going allowance. However, people who seem to believe Beyer's books (which, incidentally, I like) are the first and last words on time analysis seem to think that's the case. Time ratings, like most handicap ratings, are only as good as the person compiling them and even someone competent can have a serious lapse of judgement, as I clearly had over BOM.
Glad I've got that off my chest
It really annoys me when I hear the odd tv racing pundit say stuff like "the clock never lies!". Wtf does that even mean? Race times in themselves are meaningless. There is no absolute formula or mechanical process for working out an accurate going allowance. However, people who seem to believe Beyer's books (which, incidentally, I like) are the first and last words on time analysis seem to think that's the case. Time ratings, like most handicap ratings, are only as good as the person compiling them and even someone competent can have a serious lapse of judgement, as I clearly had over BOM.
Glad I've got that off my chest
Figgis dont be beating up on yourself, you didn't do too much wrong, however you did not allow for jockeyship. IMHO Ryan Moore would have won on any one of the first four. I think it was plain to see that as DA passed BoM to take the lead, the young lad on BoM hadn't a clue what was happening, in fact I would say he did not know what to do....... at the end of the day Ryan Moore was the difference and he saved the Ballydoyle dynasty huge embarassment. Even as the race panned out if BoM's rider had driven right out to the line he would have been placed. It was only a sh hd for the third and he stopped riding before the line.......clueless
On channel 4 Walter Swinburn was talking about sacrificing a good horse(think it was Dihistan he was talking about in 1986).Judging by the sort of ride he got it looked like BOM was the good one sacrificed yesterday
come off it BOM wasn't sacrificed they thought he was their best one.
You're probably right.He just looked to be given a half-hearted front-running ride,unless of course J O'B was caught out of his depth tactically
More post-race thoughts and questions:
1. At what price might I and other DA doubters have backed it? Truly, I wouldn't have backed it at 5/1 let alone 11/8 so little did I think it would stay.At 10/1 I would have done, but just for insurance purposes. It begs the question, that given so much negative information about the horse over 12f (even Equinome, of which Bolger has a Directorship) could give the horse no more than a 5% chance of getting 12f, and yet the price barely moved. Does this mean that the market had one of those days when it was not so much efficient as totally clueless? I thought that it must drift out to 5/2 or 11/4 at the very least.
2.Just how much of any price is down to connections? Liberetaarian won the best UK Derby trial and as such deserved much respect, yet the form was rubbished, including by me i must add, and it was allowed to go off at a huge price. It was a great run and a result that you barely see at the top level on the Flat these days, a small stable beating the big guns.
3. How important is jockeyship? Moore was outstanding in his judgement of pace, in his horsemanship in keeping the horse balanced. Compared him to Fabre's jockey who proved to me yet again that you need experience for Epsom, especially in such a big race. barzelona got away with inexperience on Pour Moi but this fella didn't.
4. Once again I proved to myself that I'm not much good at trading in the A/P market. I lost out over Telescope and Indian Chief, profited on Magician but still finished with a loss on the trading side. Might just as well have left it all to the day of race.Would have been more profitable.
1. At what price might I and other DA doubters have backed it? Truly, I wouldn't have backed it at 5/1 let alone 11/8 so little did I think it would stay.At 10/1 I would have done, but just for insurance purposes. It begs the question, that given so much negative information about the horse over 12f (even Equinome, of which Bolger has a Directorship) could give the horse no more than a 5% chance of getting 12f, and yet the price barely moved. Does this mean that the market had one of those days when it was not so much efficient as totally clueless? I thought that it must drift out to 5/2 or 11/4 at the very least.
2.Just how much of any price is down to connections? Liberetaarian won the best UK Derby trial and as such deserved much respect, yet the form was rubbished, including by me i must add, and it was allowed to go off at a huge price. It was a great run and a result that you barely see at the top level on the Flat these days, a small stable beating the big guns.
3. How important is jockeyship? Moore was outstanding in his judgement of pace, in his horsemanship in keeping the horse balanced. Compared him to Fabre's jockey who proved to me yet again that you need experience for Epsom, especially in such a big race. barzelona got away with inexperience on Pour Moi but this fella didn't.
4. Once again I proved to myself that I'm not much good at trading in the A/P market. I lost out over Telescope and Indian Chief, profited on Magician but still finished with a loss on the trading side. Might just as well have left it all to the day of race.Would have been more profitable.
Figgis
If I may say so, you did not,imo, make a serious error of judgement over BOM. He came there with every chance and at one point looked the winner. That he didn't quite get home and hold on to a place may have had more to do with the fact that he cut out a lot of the work which was unexpected. He appeared to be Ballydoyle's No. 1, he had been given the perfect prep for the race and the ground came right for him. The only slight doubt in my mind was that he had had rather a lot of races for a horse which needed to show a fair bit of improvement, as my anyalsis demonstrated.If you made any error it was to over-rate past figures and under-rate what a horse might run to in the future. This is a difficult step to take because past figures are firm(ish) whilst future figures can only be speculative and more subjective but with this kind of race are, imo, more important. Sorry for the lecture. Just trying to be helpful.
If I may say so, you did not,imo, make a serious error of judgement over BOM. He came there with every chance and at one point looked the winner. That he didn't quite get home and hold on to a place may have had more to do with the fact that he cut out a lot of the work which was unexpected. He appeared to be Ballydoyle's No. 1, he had been given the perfect prep for the race and the ground came right for him. The only slight doubt in my mind was that he had had rather a lot of races for a horse which needed to show a fair bit of improvement, as my anyalsis demonstrated.If you made any error it was to over-rate past figures and under-rate what a horse might run to in the future. This is a difficult step to take because past figures are firm(ish) whilst future figures can only be speculative and more subjective but with this kind of race are, imo, more important. Sorry for the lecture. Just trying to be helpful.
Sandown
I do not take it as a lecture and you're quite right about overrating past figures. My main error was overrating Sugar Boy's win in the Listed race last year. It was a typically difficult soft going Leopardstown card with the ground getting softer, so there was a question mark over some of the ratings. Then when Sugar Boy won the Sandown Classic Trial, admittedly in a moderately run race, I convinced myself to stick with his higher rating. These things happen, it's not a science and I expect to overrate or underrate by as much as 5 or 6lbs occasionally. However, in hindsight it's easy to see where I went wrong and I really lost the plot here and had BOM approximately 9lbs better than I should've rated him. Must do better
I do not take it as a lecture and you're quite right about overrating past figures. My main error was overrating Sugar Boy's win in the Listed race last year. It was a typically difficult soft going Leopardstown card with the ground getting softer, so there was a question mark over some of the ratings. Then when Sugar Boy won the Sandown Classic Trial, admittedly in a moderately run race, I convinced myself to stick with his higher rating. These things happen, it's not a science and I expect to overrate or underrate by as much as 5 or 6lbs occasionally. However, in hindsight it's easy to see where I went wrong and I really lost the plot here and had BOM approximately 9lbs better than I should've rated him. Must do better
hate to say figgis but i fell in this trap but the vibes all week were not good for the battle horse....the drift earlier in the week made me take note and after getting involved managed to salvage a slight loss after taking the 7.2...he ran as if a non improver to me and the p plates set alarm bells ringing for me and saved on the winner but no wish to aftertime as haven't posted on here but have enjoyed the read from some educated posters...
this was however a very poor derby and probably the worse i have seen in regards class since the great kris kin
crossed the line under the great man
i couldn't give the winner much more than 119 myself and they looked an average bunch going to post bar the favourite whom bolger had said would struggle to get a mile and a quarter in an interview with alex hammond i believe...
hate to say it but the coolmore wrap on the middle distance thoroughbred is baring out now in the derby,(i know it has over the last 10 years) a desperate shame and with none of the top english trainers being represented it is very disappointing...breeders want speed in the breed now and this is allowing these lot to monopolise the middle distance ranks and a lot of others i may add
they say (magnier and o'brien) we are very privileged to have such horses but they have killed breeding and even when other top horses come along they buy them...the monopoly continues and will continue our whole lifetime
this was however a very poor derby and probably the worse i have seen in regards class since the great kris kin
crossed the line under the great mani couldn't give the winner much more than 119 myself and they looked an average bunch going to post bar the favourite whom bolger had said would struggle to get a mile and a quarter in an interview with alex hammond i believe...
hate to say it but the coolmore wrap on the middle distance thoroughbred is baring out now in the derby,(i know it has over the last 10 years) a desperate shame and with none of the top english trainers being represented it is very disappointing...breeders want speed in the breed now and this is allowing these lot to monopolise the middle distance ranks and a lot of others i may add
they say (magnier and o'brien) we are very privileged to have such horses but they have killed breeding and even when other top horses come along they buy them...the monopoly continues and will continue our whole lifetime
I agree about the quality of the race, harry. ROTW may well have improved but I don't think the race provides conclusive proof of that. He was the best horse on the day but will he go on to consolidate the form? I'm not so sure. At the moment I think he could be another Frozen Fire rather than one of their better 3yos.
People knocking the quality of the Derby form are missing the point that the sire Galileo is producing top horses the like of which has never been seen. Throw in his grandsons via New Approach and the race yesterday was a total vindication of his quality. Leave in the winner and strip out the rest of the Galileo offspring and Ruler of the World becomes a more convincing winner from Ocovango and Chopin. In all probability yesterday’s offspring will improve again and we are in for a great season in the middle distance category.
hc
I have to say I disagree with you re the Coolmore domination.
Godolphin own New Approach and there is every indication that he could be as prepotent as Galileo.
NA has got the top 2yo and 2,000 Guineas winner -Dawn Approach: The Oaks winner Talent and the Dante winner and Derby second Libertarian in his first two crops.
Indeed I think we are in for a right royal battle between Godolphin and Coolmore in the years to come.
I have to say I disagree with you re the Coolmore domination.
Godolphin own New Approach and there is every indication that he could be as prepotent as Galileo.
NA has got the top 2yo and 2,000 Guineas winner -Dawn Approach: The Oaks winner Talent and the Dante winner and Derby second Libertarian in his first two crops.
Indeed I think we are in for a right royal battle between Godolphin and Coolmore in the years to come.
like i say figgis it was a poor derby but if anything i would take the winner from it on only his third start but will be taking the form on if of course we can actually find some potential in the 3 year old middle distance division...difficult to compare horses frozen fire was always a rat for me and could never figure him out but get your point
mars was slightly unlucky but if like me you don't rate the form what do we as a punter as he will be under priced next time...
edges will appear after this race as there was a few hard luck stories and horses will be under layed off the back of the hard luck stories. punters will over bet them which hopefully will help the scavengers like me to try and find some edges
some people think Liberetaarian was unlucky but he ran his race i would of thought he is favourite for the leger on the back of it...he can only improve but is another who is hard to evaluate moving forward...his next run will interest me as buick threw everything at him and he may hurt after this experience
i would like galileo rock moving forward but his tendency to be keen is slightly off putting but his attitude is likeable if they could sort him out i like him
but when the form is just poor grade 1 form it is going to be difficult for these 3 year olds with bigger targets ahead
mars was slightly unlucky but if like me you don't rate the form what do we as a punter as he will be under priced next time...
edges will appear after this race as there was a few hard luck stories and horses will be under layed off the back of the hard luck stories. punters will over bet them which hopefully will help the scavengers like me to try and find some edges
some people think Liberetaarian was unlucky but he ran his race i would of thought he is favourite for the leger on the back of it...he can only improve but is another who is hard to evaluate moving forward...his next run will interest me as buick threw everything at him and he may hurt after this experience
i would like galileo rock moving forward but his tendency to be keen is slightly off putting but his attitude is likeable if they could sort him out i like him
but when the form is just poor grade 1 form it is going to be difficult for these 3 year olds with bigger targets ahead
Don't forget the Kingmambo contribution.
Sire of 2007 Oaks winner Light Shift
Damsire of 2012 Derby winner Camelot
Damsire of 2013 Derby winner Ruler Of The World
Sire of
King's Best; Dubai Destination; El Condor Pasa; Henrythenavigator; Lemon Drop Kid; Rule Of Law; Virginia Waters.
Sire of 2007 Oaks winner Light Shift
Damsire of 2012 Derby winner Camelot
Damsire of 2013 Derby winner Ruler Of The World
Sire of
King's Best; Dubai Destination; El Condor Pasa; Henrythenavigator; Lemon Drop Kid; Rule Of Law; Virginia Waters.
might not have been a vintage derby but it was the strongest st leger trial i've ever seen. Let's hope all 3 do battle again at Doncaster in September.
In my note above, I should have more accurately said that New Approach has got Dawn Approach, Talent and Libertarian in his first Classic crop.
argosy
02 Jun 13 14:18
Joined:
01 May 03
| Topic/replies: 111 | Blogger: argosy's blog
hc
I have to say I disagree with you re the Coolmore domination.
Godolphin own New Approach and there is every indication that he could be as prepotent as Galileo.
NA has got the top 2yo and 2,000 Guineas winner -Dawn Approach: The Oaks winner Talent and the Dante winner and Derby second Libertarian in his first two crops.
Indeed I think we are in for a right royal battle between Godolphin and Coolmore in the years to come.
argosy do you believe coolmore will be bothered by new approach siring some quality off spring when he is by galileo himself?
7 of the derby runners were by galileo and 1 by montjeu from the 12 runners, 5 of the runners were trained by o'brien
the only breeders that are growing appear to be german breeds but the british breeder is offering nothing to the domination
02 Jun 13 14:18
Joined:
01 May 03
| Topic/replies: 111 | Blogger: argosy's blog
hc
I have to say I disagree with you re the Coolmore domination.
Godolphin own New Approach and there is every indication that he could be as prepotent as Galileo.
NA has got the top 2yo and 2,000 Guineas winner -Dawn Approach: The Oaks winner Talent and the Dante winner and Derby second Libertarian in his first two crops.
Indeed I think we are in for a right royal battle between Godolphin and Coolmore in the years to come.
argosy do you believe coolmore will be bothered by new approach siring some quality off spring when he is by galileo himself?
7 of the derby runners were by galileo and 1 by montjeu from the 12 runners, 5 of the runners were trained by o'brien
the only breeders that are growing appear to be german breeds but the british breeder is offering nothing to the domination
hc
Having proved himself with his very first Classic crop I have no doubt that Breeders will be falling over themselves to use New Approach and that the quality of the mares sent to him will improve as a result - just as happened with Galileo. Indeed if Godolphin are prepared to be competitive in the sphere of stallion fees breeders could well be using New Approach instead.
Having proved himself with his very first Classic crop I have no doubt that Breeders will be falling over themselves to use New Approach and that the quality of the mares sent to him will improve as a result - just as happened with Galileo. Indeed if Godolphin are prepared to be competitive in the sphere of stallion fees breeders could well be using New Approach instead.
Figgis, I have to disagree with you on Ruler of the World. This horse has run three times and improved massively every time, looking genuine and appearing to possess a reasonable degree of tactical speed. I am absolutely sure he will go on to win the Irish Derby convincingly. He hasn't got a decent speed figure in the book, but I've no doubt he will be able to do so when given a chance.
Howellsy, you may be right, he might prove himself a good winner. I'm just saying that he'll probably be priced up like he already is, whereas I'd like a bit more proof before taking a short price on him. There's nothing that finished behind him that I'd want to back against him, however, if enough take him on again and I consider him too short I'd be looking to lay him.
My last thoughts on the race. How good is ROTW? Well given the way the race was run, and given that he had to make up ground from near the rear in the fastest part of the race, I would say that he is worthy of 123. He is lightly raced and is a good sort and can be expected to improve further, especially on a flatter track. I don't see anything in this race that will beat him over 12f and in the Irish Derby it will be something else, like Telescope maybe, who might prove more of a threat. Libertarian also did well to come from behind ROTW but he doen't have quite the same change of gear and if he is to take a G1 it will have to be over further so the St leger must be his target.
Of the others, BOM may be best at 10f whilst Galileo's Rock sat on the pace and like Libertarian will be suited by further but I don't see him beating that horse in the St Leger.
Of the others, BOM may be best at 10f whilst Galileo's Rock sat on the pace and like Libertarian will be suited by further but I don't see him beating that horse in the St Leger.
As for DA, he looked a class apart in the paddock but he may never be better than he is over further than 8f although I expect that they might try him over 10f as has 2 G1 entries at that trip, but over 8f he will be hard to beat. What the after-effects of this race will be, who knows?
DA entered in Sussex Stakes too though is n't he? I would n't be too surprised if we don't see him before then because yesterday's exertions might have left a mark.
If I understand the Equinome classification correctly, they might be well served to consider a supplementary entry for the July Cup
I suppose a 10f G1 win would make him more attractive as a stallion.
If I understand the Equinome classification correctly, they might be well served to consider a supplementary entry for the July Cup
I suppose a 10f G1 win would make him more attractive as a stallion.
Equinome page http://www.equinome.com/pages/what-is-a-c-c.html
What is a C:C?
Average best distance - 6.5 f (1300 m)
75% of 5 f (1000 m) winners are C:C
65% of 6 f (1200 m) winners are C:C
98% of C:Cs win 5 f - 1 mile (1000 - 1600 m)
Fast, Speedy, Sprint Type
A C:C horse is likely to be a fast, early maturing horse that performs well as a two-year-old. As a two-year-old a C:C horse has 6.7 % greater muscle mass than a T:T horse and earns on average four times more prize-money. A C:C horse excels in sprints and is best suited to races up to and including 1 mile. Stallions that are C:C have the greatest share of two-year-old winners and have a stamina index of 6 - 8 f (1200 - 1600 m). Mares that are C:C can only produce C:C and C:T foals.
My comment: the bar chart on the above page has this comment
Proportion of Group race winning C:C horses that won their best race at distances shown in two furlong increments. C:C horses are best suited to distances less than 1 mile.
My comment: looking at the graph I see 58% 5-6f; 40% 7-8f; 2% 9-10f; 0% 11-12f; 0% 13f+
What is a C:C?
Average best distance - 6.5 f (1300 m)
75% of 5 f (1000 m) winners are C:C
65% of 6 f (1200 m) winners are C:C
98% of C:Cs win 5 f - 1 mile (1000 - 1600 m)
Fast, Speedy, Sprint Type
A C:C horse is likely to be a fast, early maturing horse that performs well as a two-year-old. As a two-year-old a C:C horse has 6.7 % greater muscle mass than a T:T horse and earns on average four times more prize-money. A C:C horse excels in sprints and is best suited to races up to and including 1 mile. Stallions that are C:C have the greatest share of two-year-old winners and have a stamina index of 6 - 8 f (1200 - 1600 m). Mares that are C:C can only produce C:C and C:T foals.
My comment: the bar chart on the above page has this comment
Proportion of Group race winning C:C horses that won their best race at distances shown in two furlong increments. C:C horses are best suited to distances less than 1 mile.
My comment: looking at the graph I see 58% 5-6f; 40% 7-8f; 2% 9-10f; 0% 11-12f; 0% 13f+
Does anybody else think that JOB kicked for home too early on Battle of Marengo? I thought tactically the Ballydoyle plan was perfect in that they used a horse as a pacemaker to slow it right down (rather than set a decent pace) but why that was BOM is beyond me. Flying the Flag was up there for the first couple of furlongs but then BOM took over in front after seeming to settle incredibly well. In the Derrinstown he appeared to idle when he hit the front so, even with cheekpieces fitted, why did they think having him at the front for most of the race was a good idea? Having watched the race again a few times Manning sent DA too the front roughly 5 furlongs from home and initially it looked like a couple of horses might go with him (Moore had tracked him most of the race so far) but they realised how far from home the doubtful to stay, hard pulling favourite was and let him go. I think at this point JOB was worried that if he gave Dawn Approach too much of a head start he would not be able to catch him and so at about 4 furlongs from home, and still to completely round Tattenham corner, and kicked for home himself. Tough for any horse to try and do what he attempted and no wonder he was beaten.
Yes I did back him on the day as well as antepost on here at 60, yes I admit that I am more than likely talking through my pocket but maybe if there was a different jockey then there may have been a different result.
Yes I did back him on the day as well as antepost on here at 60, yes I admit that I am more than likely talking through my pocket but maybe if there was a different jockey then there may have been a different result.
Battle of Marengo looks a bit one-paced to me & prob just short of top class.
The way the race unfolded was very messy with the pace of the race & the fact that the fav ran & pulled like a nut-job from the start until he just gave up & let him stride on with over 5f still to run!! That did not do BOM any favours, but I don't think it made any diff to the result imo.
The winner ROTW is the best horse in the race & I don't expect the placed horses to turn the form around with him in the Ire Derby, if that's the next race for them.
As for BOM, I think he's just a few pounds short of the top 3yo level.
I like the winner & hope&think there will be a lot more to come from him as the season progresses. Should kick myself for not having something on him to win on Sat, only had a few ££ on him in the place market.
The way the race unfolded was very messy with the pace of the race & the fact that the fav ran & pulled like a nut-job from the start until he just gave up & let him stride on with over 5f still to run!! That did not do BOM any favours, but I don't think it made any diff to the result imo.
The winner ROTW is the best horse in the race & I don't expect the placed horses to turn the form around with him in the Ire Derby, if that's the next race for them.
As for BOM, I think he's just a few pounds short of the top 3yo level.
I like the winner & hope&think there will be a lot more to come from him as the season progresses. Should kick myself for not having something on him to win on Sat, only had a few ££ on him in the place market.
Does anybody else think that JOB kicked for home too early on Battle of Marengo?
Looking back, yes. However I wouldn't be harsh on JOB for this.
Dawn Approach's monkey antics all happened BEHIND Joseph. He would have had no idea that Dawn Approach had ruined his race and had no chance of staying. Basically he saw the favourite go past him and had no other option but to go with him. It would have been a brave man to just hold onto Battle of Marengo and let Dawn Approach have first run.
Basically Ryan Moore on ROTW would have seen Dawn Approach pulling and he knew that he didn't have to chase him, Joseph didn't have that knowledge. No blame imo.
Despite all that BOM has run a blinder, going for home so soon and only losing 2nd place on the line is a great effort.
Looking back, yes. However I wouldn't be harsh on JOB for this.
Dawn Approach's monkey antics all happened BEHIND Joseph. He would have had no idea that Dawn Approach had ruined his race and had no chance of staying. Basically he saw the favourite go past him and had no other option but to go with him. It would have been a brave man to just hold onto Battle of Marengo and let Dawn Approach have first run.
Basically Ryan Moore on ROTW would have seen Dawn Approach pulling and he knew that he didn't have to chase him, Joseph didn't have that knowledge. No blame imo.
Despite all that BOM has run a blinder, going for home so soon and only losing 2nd place on the line is a great effort.
BOM finished 4th did he not.
He had every chance imo, just not gd enough.
He had every chance imo, just not gd enough.
Sandown
Out of interest how did you rate rotw 123? through what horse?
just interested as had him borderline 120 myself... for you to have him 123 you must be basing this through a certain horse
i can't have him near that i may add
Out of interest how did you rate rotw 123? through what horse?
just interested as had him borderline 120 myself... for you to have him 123 you must be basing this through a certain horse
i can't have him near that i may add
I think michrich has asked a very pertinent question. In some quarters the Ballydoyle crew have been hailed as tactical geniuses for what happened on Saturday, but I'm convinced they wanted BOM to win (jockey bookings, and check out JOB's face on the head on as they cross the line), and to my mind this was just another completely botched tactical affair that happened to work out for them on this occasion. I think Tucho has given a very good response to why JOB did go on early.
Ruler Of The World stalked Dawn Approach for the first half, probably following Aidan O'Brien's instructions.
Battle Of Marengo set a steady pace, probably expecting to wind it up in the straight, burn off Dawn Approach, and Battle Of Marengo would cruise in.
Unfortunately Battle Of Marengo was then outstayed, his jockey decided to accept his fate and go hands and heels. But he miscalculated and was caught close home by two horses.
Battle Of Marengo set a steady pace, probably expecting to wind it up in the straight, burn off Dawn Approach, and Battle Of Marengo would cruise in.
Unfortunately Battle Of Marengo was then outstayed, his jockey decided to accept his fate and go hands and heels. But he miscalculated and was caught close home by two horses.
interesting thoughts on the battle horse...
I can't have it the race wasn't run to suit him...they had an inferior horse in there if they wished to use him for the pace but o'brien went to the front after 2 furlongs on the easy lead and set his own fractions...mich rich does make a fair point and dawn approach taking him on i suppose got him racing early enough but he actually never went for him till the 2 pole and i'm afraid he could only find the same pace...
to say he was unlucky or he went a tad soon is a bit much for me as thought he was basically exposed for what he is a slightly disappointing and one paced sort who isn't improving... at the time when dawn approach came upsides he had to let him free wheel down hill which he did...
ask yourselves the question why were the p plates on the creature...why because they wanted more from the horse on what he had been showing them and us for that matter... his derrinstown run was average and i myself bought into the fact it was just a prep but to put the p plates on told me they thought he needed to find more to win and was disappointing them
he will win his share but is definitely not one to take a price about as looks just the one pace
basically he hasn't really improved much this season and in a poor derby he ran to his rating imo which is 117 in my book anyway...and i doubt he has improved much from the ballysax which may have taken more out of him than first seemed...some may view it different but that is where i am at
I can't have it the race wasn't run to suit him...they had an inferior horse in there if they wished to use him for the pace but o'brien went to the front after 2 furlongs on the easy lead and set his own fractions...mich rich does make a fair point and dawn approach taking him on i suppose got him racing early enough but he actually never went for him till the 2 pole and i'm afraid he could only find the same pace...
to say he was unlucky or he went a tad soon is a bit much for me as thought he was basically exposed for what he is a slightly disappointing and one paced sort who isn't improving... at the time when dawn approach came upsides he had to let him free wheel down hill which he did...
ask yourselves the question why were the p plates on the creature...why because they wanted more from the horse on what he had been showing them and us for that matter... his derrinstown run was average and i myself bought into the fact it was just a prep but to put the p plates on told me they thought he needed to find more to win and was disappointing them
he will win his share but is definitely not one to take a price about as looks just the one pace
basically he hasn't really improved much this season and in a poor derby he ran to his rating imo which is 117 in my book anyway...and i doubt he has improved much from the ballysax which may have taken more out of him than first seemed...some may view it different but that is where i am at
I agree, harry, that's probably as good as BOM is, at least at this stage, it has been known for the odd horse beaten in the Derby to improve afterwards. I don't think stamina was the problem, I doubt he'd be any better over 10f. I also don't think the cheek pieces are relevant, as the winner also wore them.
Harry c
Sandown
Out of interest how did you rate rotw 123? through what horse?
just interested as had him borderline 120 myself... for you to have him 123 you must be basing this through a certain horse
i can't have him near that i may add
My methodology for rating horses uses a combination of final time ratings, sectional time analysis and collateral form. I do not myself rely on a single figure to describe the merit of any horse as I believe that to be seriously flawed methodology. It is very important to know HOW a performance was arrived at in terms of pace.
I frequently resort to using a single figure for discussion purposes as it helps for a better debate. I do not rate a horse though any other except to say that all the races on the day have to be anchored somewhere if one is to establish an allowance for going and wind. The best anchor is invariably an older handicapper who is consistent from one race to the next. With 3 yr old top class and lightly raced horses using the bare figures is not imo a safe thing to do because of the improvement likely. Fortunately, there were other 12f races on Sat/Fri which we can use.
So, my rating for ROTW is based on the way he ran his race, his final time in comparison with other races. I have him on 123 but Libertarian ONLY gets 114 from me but still better than the rest. I would expect him to improve over further but at 12f that's where I have him.
The scale I use for lb ratings is the same as the accepted 0-140 scale in common use but I place more importance on speed ratings myself. The conversion of speed to weight is full of potential errors what with averaged WFA, different physiques and sizes, varied race pace and different effect of going and course all affecting how one should convert speed to weight. Needless to say, I believe that collateral rating methodology is crude and its only saving grace is that it is easy to do. The fact that it generally gets there in the end doesn't help much when the objective is to be ahead of the rest when it comes to betting. I frequently back horses which are not top-rated. The rating for DA over 8f and its advantage over the rest of the derby field seriously affected the markets view of its chance, for example.
Hope this helps.
I have explained my methods over the years in various other threads which people like Figgis are aware of. I only really get involved with the deby and arc threads, by the way.
hope this helps.
Sandown
Out of interest how did you rate rotw 123? through what horse?
just interested as had him borderline 120 myself... for you to have him 123 you must be basing this through a certain horse
i can't have him near that i may add
My methodology for rating horses uses a combination of final time ratings, sectional time analysis and collateral form. I do not myself rely on a single figure to describe the merit of any horse as I believe that to be seriously flawed methodology. It is very important to know HOW a performance was arrived at in terms of pace.
I frequently resort to using a single figure for discussion purposes as it helps for a better debate. I do not rate a horse though any other except to say that all the races on the day have to be anchored somewhere if one is to establish an allowance for going and wind. The best anchor is invariably an older handicapper who is consistent from one race to the next. With 3 yr old top class and lightly raced horses using the bare figures is not imo a safe thing to do because of the improvement likely. Fortunately, there were other 12f races on Sat/Fri which we can use.
So, my rating for ROTW is based on the way he ran his race, his final time in comparison with other races. I have him on 123 but Libertarian ONLY gets 114 from me but still better than the rest. I would expect him to improve over further but at 12f that's where I have him.
The scale I use for lb ratings is the same as the accepted 0-140 scale in common use but I place more importance on speed ratings myself. The conversion of speed to weight is full of potential errors what with averaged WFA, different physiques and sizes, varied race pace and different effect of going and course all affecting how one should convert speed to weight. Needless to say, I believe that collateral rating methodology is crude and its only saving grace is that it is easy to do. The fact that it generally gets there in the end doesn't help much when the objective is to be ahead of the rest when it comes to betting. I frequently back horses which are not top-rated. The rating for DA over 8f and its advantage over the rest of the derby field seriously affected the markets view of its chance, for example.
Hope this helps.
I have explained my methods over the years in various other threads which people like Figgis are aware of. I only really get involved with the deby and arc threads, by the way.
hope this helps.
While I believe sectional times can certainly be useful and should be widely available, I do think some of the assumptions can be overstated regarding what would've happened if a race had been run differently. There are obvious truths that we know about the pace of a race and how some races are run inefficiently for some horses to run to their best. When a horse has already run fast, like Intello, we know that the early fractions in the French Guineas hindered him (as well as the draw) because he had already proved what he could do in a race run at a better overall pace. However, when it comes to a horse like ROTW, he has never really proved himself in a race run in a proper Gp 1 time. We can see that the Derby was run in a way that it wasn't really possible to achieve a great time. We can also say that ROTW ran some good fractions under the circumstances. It is possible that he could've run a better time and won more decisively in a truer run race, but I certainly wouldn't take it as a given.
We see plenty of horses every day that can run fast for a couple of furlongs but they don't run any better overall when their pace is rationed. I also know the importance of wind and the changes that can happen from one race to another are grossly underestimated in the compilation of most speed figures and I'm sure the influence of wind causes just as much interference with sectionals. As I said, I'm not knocking people who base their betting on sectionals, it can obviously give people an edge. It's just that as ROTW is hardly going to be underestimated in the market from now on, I'm not sure I'd want to upgrade his win based on assumptions.
We see plenty of horses every day that can run fast for a couple of furlongs but they don't run any better overall when their pace is rationed. I also know the importance of wind and the changes that can happen from one race to another are grossly underestimated in the compilation of most speed figures and I'm sure the influence of wind causes just as much interference with sectionals. As I said, I'm not knocking people who base their betting on sectionals, it can obviously give people an edge. It's just that as ROTW is hardly going to be underestimated in the market from now on, I'm not sure I'd want to upgrade his win based on assumptions.
RULER OF THE WORLD has been allotted a mark of 120 for his win in Saturday's Investec Derby by BHA head of handicapping Phil Smith, making the Aidan O'Brien-trained colt the lowest-rated winner of the Epsom Classic this century.
The 2006 winner Sir Percy was the previous lowest, given a mark of 121 following victory, however Smith does not believe Ruler Of The World has reached the ceiling of his ability.
Speaking on his BHA blog, Smith said: "I have Ruler Of The World performing to 120 at Epsom. He went two lengths clear (3lb) and then appeared to idle a little close home. I have agreed this figure with Garry O'Gorman, who is senior handicapper on the Flat for the Irish Turf Club.
"I am sure this will not be the limit of Ruler Of The World's ability level. The first three in this year's Investec Derby had only run a total of eight times previously. This is the lowest figure this century and it would not surprise me if someone researched it and discovered that it was in fact the fewest number of pre-Derby runs ever by the first three finishers.
"Certainly they all have bags of improvement in them, particularly Libertarian on a more galloping track and perhaps over a couple of extra furlongs.
Smith gave Libertarian a mark of 117, while Oaks winner Talent has been handed a mark of 114. The last filly to be given the same rating following Oaks success was Snow Fairy in 2010, who ended her three-year-old campaign on 120.
Smith added: "Ralph Beckett's filly is clearly improving and it would be no surprise to see her emulate Snow Fairy's figure by the end of the season. She appears to save her best for the racecourse and not the training grounds.
"This century only two Oaks winners Casual Look (113) and Was (113) have been rated lower than Talent, BUT do not underestimate her."
The 2006 winner Sir Percy was the previous lowest, given a mark of 121 following victory, however Smith does not believe Ruler Of The World has reached the ceiling of his ability.
Speaking on his BHA blog, Smith said: "I have Ruler Of The World performing to 120 at Epsom. He went two lengths clear (3lb) and then appeared to idle a little close home. I have agreed this figure with Garry O'Gorman, who is senior handicapper on the Flat for the Irish Turf Club.
"I am sure this will not be the limit of Ruler Of The World's ability level. The first three in this year's Investec Derby had only run a total of eight times previously. This is the lowest figure this century and it would not surprise me if someone researched it and discovered that it was in fact the fewest number of pre-Derby runs ever by the first three finishers.
"Certainly they all have bags of improvement in them, particularly Libertarian on a more galloping track and perhaps over a couple of extra furlongs.
Smith gave Libertarian a mark of 117, while Oaks winner Talent has been handed a mark of 114. The last filly to be given the same rating following Oaks success was Snow Fairy in 2010, who ended her three-year-old campaign on 120.
Smith added: "Ralph Beckett's filly is clearly improving and it would be no surprise to see her emulate Snow Fairy's figure by the end of the season. She appears to save her best for the racecourse and not the training grounds.
"This century only two Oaks winners Casual Look (113) and Was (113) have been rated lower than Talent, BUT do not underestimate her."
sandown what you say is a tad condescending....to a private handicapper like me anyway
figgis helps me out here in a good write up
what you are actually saying is you are basing your figure on speed adjusted ratings based on your own beliefs in your speed ratings...which for me having followed speed figures and find them useful is only useful if they are correct which they can't be because you are guessing the fractions you believe the horse can achieve...or his or hers true ability
what you are also saying in regards Libertarian is off a truer gallop the winner would have beaten him a whole lot further am i correct?? on your adjusted??
anyway i base mine on what i believe an animal can achieve, guessing what may have happened off of the back of indifferent sectionals is harder and i take it that was your point
figgis helps me out here in a good write up
what you are actually saying is you are basing your figure on speed adjusted ratings based on your own beliefs in your speed ratings...which for me having followed speed figures and find them useful is only useful if they are correct which they can't be because you are guessing the fractions you believe the horse can achieve...or his or hers true ability
what you are also saying in regards Libertarian is off a truer gallop the winner would have beaten him a whole lot further am i correct?? on your adjusted??
anyway i base mine on what i believe an animal can achieve, guessing what may have happened off of the back of indifferent sectionals is harder and i take it that was your point
Harry c
I have no idea of your ability/ experience, do I? So, I assume that it is best to explain fully. If that is or sounds condescending, its not meant to be.
I seriously do not wish to get into a lenghty debate on this. I was trying to be helpful. You're welcome to your own opinions, as I am to mine.
By way of example, Sharastani beat Dancing Brave in the Derby, but he was not nearly as good a horse. On purely final times or even collateral form, they would have been rated the same immediately after the race, would they not?
however, we all knew that DB would turn out to be a better horse and so it proved.TF rated DB on 140 and sharastani on 135. (Personally, I had DB's edge by more than that but that's another story). the issue is, by how much more should DB have been rated after the Derby? That's what I seek to do.
Another example.After Frankel's 2nd run at Doncastert, i had him pegged as a minimum 138 horse whilst the TS rating was 115 and the RPR was 115.That's what I try to do. be ahead of the game.
As far as the derby result is concerned, i am saying that ROTW can be credited with a higher rating because of the way his race unfolded. As can Libertarian but not by as much.
I have no idea of your ability/ experience, do I? So, I assume that it is best to explain fully. If that is or sounds condescending, its not meant to be.
I seriously do not wish to get into a lenghty debate on this. I was trying to be helpful. You're welcome to your own opinions, as I am to mine.
By way of example, Sharastani beat Dancing Brave in the Derby, but he was not nearly as good a horse. On purely final times or even collateral form, they would have been rated the same immediately after the race, would they not?
however, we all knew that DB would turn out to be a better horse and so it proved.TF rated DB on 140 and sharastani on 135. (Personally, I had DB's edge by more than that but that's another story). the issue is, by how much more should DB have been rated after the Derby? That's what I seek to do.
Another example.After Frankel's 2nd run at Doncastert, i had him pegged as a minimum 138 horse whilst the TS rating was 115 and the RPR was 115.That's what I try to do. be ahead of the game.
As far as the derby result is concerned, i am saying that ROTW can be credited with a higher rating because of the way his race unfolded. As can Libertarian but not by as much.
however, we all knew that DB would turn out to be a better horse
Definitely not all, Shahrastani was the 11/10 fav for the KG, DB was 6/4. I also remember reading most of the experts (jockeys, ex jockeys, trainers, etc) in the Sporting Life choose Shahrastani over DB. I even remember one letter after the Derby saying DB didn't stay.
That Topspeed rating for Frankel says more about the inadequacies of those ratings, rather than the accuracy of final time ratings in general.
Definitely not all, Shahrastani was the 11/10 fav for the KG, DB was 6/4. I also remember reading most of the experts (jockeys, ex jockeys, trainers, etc) in the Sporting Life choose Shahrastani over DB. I even remember one letter after the Derby saying DB didn't stay.
That Topspeed rating for Frankel says more about the inadequacies of those ratings, rather than the accuracy of final time ratings in general.
Figgis
Your point is pedantic.
I knew as did many other professionals at the time. Does that help?
The market can be wrong, as we know, as we saw over Dawn Approach. Likewise experts like TF expressing a firm opinion over DA staying 12f.Everyone can expect to wrong as you admitted over BOM. I used the TS rating to illustrate a point and I daresay that TS,RPR and TF has more influence over the market than your ratings or mine.
Do you want to have positive debates with others who have many years at this game or are you only interested in challenging others point of view?
Your point is pedantic.
I knew as did many other professionals at the time. Does that help?
The market can be wrong, as we know, as we saw over Dawn Approach. Likewise experts like TF expressing a firm opinion over DA staying 12f.Everyone can expect to wrong as you admitted over BOM. I used the TS rating to illustrate a point and I daresay that TS,RPR and TF has more influence over the market than your ratings or mine.
Do you want to have positive debates with others who have many years at this game or are you only interested in challenging others point of view?
Sandown
A strangely touchy response. My first point was actually in your favour, as I was pointing out that you gave the crowd too much credit, unlike you, most people still didn't recognise DB as the better horse at that stage, well not after Shahrastani's demolition job in the Irish Derby anyway.
As for that Topspeed rating, we all make mistakes, I am appalled with myself for being 9lbs wrong for BOM, but that low Frankel rating is ridiculous.
A strangely touchy response. My first point was actually in your favour, as I was pointing out that you gave the crowd too much credit, unlike you, most people still didn't recognise DB as the better horse at that stage, well not after Shahrastani's demolition job in the Irish Derby anyway.
As for that Topspeed rating, we all make mistakes, I am appalled with myself for being 9lbs wrong for BOM, but that low Frankel rating is ridiculous.
Yeah Sandown, come on you were a bit touchy there mate! Figgis is one of the more balanced, reasonable posters you'll find on here! I've really appreciated your contribution to this thread, particularly your correct insight into the claims of the more lightly raced horses with more improvement to come. That argument was so powerful it almost persuaded me to add ROTW, but I was just too stubborn. My loss.
OK maybe I did over-react but I didn't consider it a point worth making - anyway I saw it as a criticism, not in support.
sandown
20 years i have been a form student
what you are really saying after reading your thoughts are they are your own ratings adjusted in what makes sense to you, and how you intrepid that piece of form and that others cannot form judgement unless they are using these methods i think...
that was my point, in fact what you were saying is that i may not have considered this in mine (that is why i asked you)...how do you know how professional i am, you don't, but you talk to me as if i'm just starting out its like listening to claire balding being condescending to everyone on the telly...
its disappointing to chat to people whom only wish to talk on there terms and what suits them, on this occasion dancing brave or frankel, using the words me and other professionals as if you are better judge than others and we need educating on these certain individuals...we cannot evolve as decent punters if we aren't trying to take everything into account which i certainly do...
I know plenty of pro's who have given me tips that i can't have on my mind but that is there interpretation of the form and i still respect it, it doesn't make me a better judge it is just how they have viewed certain races and they or I may still be wrong
my figures are based around okovango whom i rated at around 111 after running in a truly run trail and that he could probably only peak at around 116/7 in the derby and i based this on the 3rd in his trail wire to wire who is quite exposed...
he actually ran better than i thought he would in the derby but he is the base of my rating and my own ratings are based around him if you were interested but you weren't. these are my ratings sandown how i see the race and how it was run is another matter
sorry to have a go sandown but don't like being spoken to like a juvenile form reader
and you never did answer the libertarian question??
20 years i have been a form student
what you are really saying after reading your thoughts are they are your own ratings adjusted in what makes sense to you, and how you intrepid that piece of form and that others cannot form judgement unless they are using these methods i think...
that was my point, in fact what you were saying is that i may not have considered this in mine (that is why i asked you)...how do you know how professional i am, you don't, but you talk to me as if i'm just starting out its like listening to claire balding being condescending to everyone on the telly...
its disappointing to chat to people whom only wish to talk on there terms and what suits them, on this occasion dancing brave or frankel, using the words me and other professionals as if you are better judge than others and we need educating on these certain individuals...we cannot evolve as decent punters if we aren't trying to take everything into account which i certainly do...
I know plenty of pro's who have given me tips that i can't have on my mind but that is there interpretation of the form and i still respect it, it doesn't make me a better judge it is just how they have viewed certain races and they or I may still be wrong
my figures are based around okovango whom i rated at around 111 after running in a truly run trail and that he could probably only peak at around 116/7 in the derby and i based this on the 3rd in his trail wire to wire who is quite exposed...
he actually ran better than i thought he would in the derby but he is the base of my rating and my own ratings are based around him if you were interested but you weren't. these are my ratings sandown how i see the race and how it was run is another matter
sorry to have a go sandown but don't like being spoken to like a juvenile form reader
and you never did answer the libertarian question??
Harry C
I've told you all I intend to tell you. I've given you an insight into how I approach things. I have made no comment on your views because they represent your opinion and I have no interest whatsoever in trying to convince you or anyone else that my methods are in anyway better than anyone else's. I have tried to explain why I might end up with a different view to you. There is no condescension intended.
I've told you all I intend to tell you. I've given you an insight into how I approach things. I have made no comment on your views because they represent your opinion and I have no interest whatsoever in trying to convince you or anyone else that my methods are in anyway better than anyone else's. I have tried to explain why I might end up with a different view to you. There is no condescension intended.
Getting back to the Derby, I know they went slower than he's been used to but I can't help wondering if DA's behaviour was a sign of something more worrying. Maybe he's finding this old racing game a bit distressing? He's put in a few fast performances now and that Guineas win looked particularly taxing. Maybe he just needs a break? Hopefully it's nothing to be concerned about and he'll be back as good as ever.
nobody saw my Ballydoyle pace analysis the night before?
It was pretty close to the mark even if I landed on Festive Cheer!
It was pretty close to the mark even if I landed on Festive Cheer!
WOW, looking back through this thread and no mension of ROTWorld , until Pricewise came up with him in May 2013. Way back to June 30th 2012 ,Mars was as low as 12-1 to win the Derby, he was a bigger price on the day of the race. ROTWorld ran in a Maiden race on the 13th of April , on the same day all eyes where on BOM,running in a Derby trial, nice one Aiden !
Hope we all have better look in finding next years Derby winner.
Hope we all have better look in finding next years Derby winner.
ttt
The 2014 version
As I have backed Berkshire it is good to hear he is
in good form presently
The 2014 version
As I have backed Berkshire it is good to hear he is
in good form presently
Just taking a very quick look at this years race, using last years research as a template and 'Geoffrey Chaucer' stands out with a dosage of 7-1-12-4-0 DI 1.4 CD 0.6
The average of the last 10 years 5-1-13-4-1 DI 1.25 CD 0.23
Overall last year wasn't a million miles away, with Ruler of The World reaching the top 48 from a list of 450 or so. He was eliminated on Brilliant points (as 9 was the highest of the last 10 years)and Mars finished 6th from the shortlist of 7.
The average of the last 10 years 5-1-13-4-1 DI 1.25 CD 0.23
Overall last year wasn't a million miles away, with Ruler of The World reaching the top 48 from a list of 450 or so. He was eliminated on Brilliant points (as 9 was the highest of the last 10 years)and Mars finished 6th from the shortlist of 7.
no jack it just needs supplementing betfair should ave left it in the market
Shrews - at least I kept quiet about GC for the last few months.
Shrews
Are you going to start a thread for the 2014 Derby? Your systems analysis on the 2013 race was a great read.
Are you going to start a thread for the 2014 Derby? Your systems analysis on the 2013 race was a great read.
Basically no, I've already got the winner
I had a look at the following some time ago (not sure who they are now, although the Galileo horse is Australia)
As before I tried to get them to fit the dosage 'range profile'
Brilliant - 4 to 8
Intermediate - 0 to 2
Classic - 7 to 16
Solid - 3 to 6
Professional - 0 to 1
DI - 0.78 to 1.44
CD - -0.04 to 0.46
Although Ruler Of The World was 9-0-21-8-0-1.05-0.26, which sort of blew that out of the park.
Nevertheless, I give it another go for a bit of fun
00belesta Montjeu 2 2 12 4 0 1 0.1
00dibenoise Montjeu 2 0 10 4 0 0.78 0
00honorlina Montjeu 3 0 9 4 0 0.88 0.13
00hulaangel Montjeu 8 3 15 4 0 1.61 0.5
00jewelinthesand Montjeu 3 2 11 4 0 1.11 0.2
00lastingchance Montjeu 3 1 10 4 0 1 0.17
00lovemetrue Montjeu 8 0 22 8 0 1 0.21
00marquesa Montjeu 6 0 16 8 0 0.88 0.13
00ouijaboard Galileo 3 1 8 4 0 1 0.19
The 3 below fitted the figures but only Geoffrey Chaucer looks a likely runner.
John Constable Montjeu 6 2 13 5 0 1.26 0.35
Geoffrey Chaucer Montjeu 7 1 12 4 0 1.4 0.46
Affairs Of State Montjeu 7 0 13 4 0 1.29 0.42
I had a look at the following some time ago (not sure who they are now, although the Galileo horse is Australia)
As before I tried to get them to fit the dosage 'range profile'
Brilliant - 4 to 8
Intermediate - 0 to 2
Classic - 7 to 16
Solid - 3 to 6
Professional - 0 to 1
DI - 0.78 to 1.44
CD - -0.04 to 0.46
Although Ruler Of The World was 9-0-21-8-0-1.05-0.26, which sort of blew that out of the park.
Nevertheless, I give it another go for a bit of fun00belesta Montjeu 2 2 12 4 0 1 0.1
00dibenoise Montjeu 2 0 10 4 0 0.78 0
00honorlina Montjeu 3 0 9 4 0 0.88 0.13
00hulaangel Montjeu 8 3 15 4 0 1.61 0.5
00jewelinthesand Montjeu 3 2 11 4 0 1.11 0.2
00lastingchance Montjeu 3 1 10 4 0 1 0.17
00lovemetrue Montjeu 8 0 22 8 0 1 0.21
00marquesa Montjeu 6 0 16 8 0 0.88 0.13
00ouijaboard Galileo 3 1 8 4 0 1 0.19
The 3 below fitted the figures but only Geoffrey Chaucer looks a likely runner.
John Constable Montjeu 6 2 13 5 0 1.26 0.35
Geoffrey Chaucer Montjeu 7 1 12 4 0 1.4 0.46
Affairs Of State Montjeu 7 0 13 4 0 1.29 0.42
I think you have. 
Geoffrey Chaucer (2011) is out of Helsinki (1993) by Machiavellian (1987). Helsinki is out of Helen Street (1982) by Troy (1976).
Geoffrey Chaucer’s sire Montjeu, has sired Derby winners Motivator; Authorized; Pour Moi; Camelot.
What is interesting to me is Geoffrey Chaucer’s dam, Helsinki, is the dam of Shamardal, winner of 6 of 7 races.
Shamardal won the Vintage Stakes (Group 2); Dewhurst (Gr 1); Poule d’Essai des Poulains (French 2000 Guineas)(Gr 1); Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby)(Gr 1); St James’s Palace Stakes (Gr 1). His one failure was on dirt in Dubai.
Shamardal is also successful as a sire. Shamardal’s son Lope De Vega won the Poule d’Essai des Poulains (French 2000 Guineas)(Gr 1) and Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby)(Gr 1). Other Group 1 winners by Shamardal are Casamento (in England); Sagawara (in France); Crackerjack King; Zazou; Amaron (in Italy).
Geoffrey Chaucer’s dam Helsinki’s is also a full sibling of sire Street Cry, sire of Group 1 winners Lyric Of Light; Majestic Roi; Zenyatta; Seventh Street; Street Boss; Street Sense; New Year’s Day; Cry And Catch Me; Victor’s Cry.
There is plenty of class in the pedigree. (I haven’t had a bet.)
Geoffrey Chaucer (2011) is out of Helsinki (1993) by Machiavellian (1987). Helsinki is out of Helen Street (1982) by Troy (1976).
Geoffrey Chaucer’s sire Montjeu, has sired Derby winners Motivator; Authorized; Pour Moi; Camelot.
What is interesting to me is Geoffrey Chaucer’s dam, Helsinki, is the dam of Shamardal, winner of 6 of 7 races.
Shamardal won the Vintage Stakes (Group 2); Dewhurst (Gr 1); Poule d’Essai des Poulains (French 2000 Guineas)(Gr 1); Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby)(Gr 1); St James’s Palace Stakes (Gr 1). His one failure was on dirt in Dubai.
Shamardal is also successful as a sire. Shamardal’s son Lope De Vega won the Poule d’Essai des Poulains (French 2000 Guineas)(Gr 1) and Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby)(Gr 1). Other Group 1 winners by Shamardal are Casamento (in England); Sagawara (in France); Crackerjack King; Zazou; Amaron (in Italy).
Geoffrey Chaucer’s dam Helsinki’s is also a full sibling of sire Street Cry, sire of Group 1 winners Lyric Of Light; Majestic Roi; Zenyatta; Seventh Street; Street Boss; Street Sense; New Year’s Day; Cry And Catch Me; Victor’s Cry.
There is plenty of class in the pedigree. (I haven’t had a bet.)
interesting views on geoffrey chaucer, sounds like worthy outsider, BERKSHIRE what about that ones chances on the dosage profiles and
breeding ect, TIA
breeding ect, TIA
BERKSHIRE
Brilliant - 2 (Only 1 winner in the last 11 has scored less than 4, Sir Percy 1)
Intermediate - 1 (ok)
Classic - 3 (No winners in the last 11 scored 5 or less, Sir Percy 5)
Solid - 0 (Only 1 winner in the last 11 has scored 0, Sea The Stars)
Professional - 0 (ok)
Dosage Index - 3 (Only 1 winner in the last 11 has scored more than 1.44, Sea The Stars 3)
Centre Of Distribution -0.83 (Only 2 winners in the last 11 have scored negative points, Pour Moi -0.04 and Sir Percy -0.5)
It doesn't look a typical Derby winner based on Dosage over the last 11 years
2 1 3 0 0 3 0.83
Brilliant - 2 (Only 1 winner in the last 11 has scored less than 4, Sir Percy 1)
Intermediate - 1 (ok)
Classic - 3 (No winners in the last 11 scored 5 or less, Sir Percy 5)
Solid - 0 (Only 1 winner in the last 11 has scored 0, Sea The Stars)
Professional - 0 (ok)
Dosage Index - 3 (Only 1 winner in the last 11 has scored more than 1.44, Sea The Stars 3)
Centre Of Distribution -0.83 (Only 2 winners in the last 11 have scored negative points, Pour Moi -0.04 and Sir Percy -0.5)
It doesn't look a typical Derby winner based on Dosage over the last 11 years
2 1 3 0 0 3 0.83
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