Thanks for the youtube view, rozel.
ORFEVRE was beaten fair and square as far as I am concerned.

Orfevre certainly deserved to win. Its been a long ante-post journey, with the wrong result for many Orfevre fans on here. However the winner deserves praise for the way she fought back after seeing the monster swoop past her. Well done anyone who backed her. Who dares wins!!!

well i cant blame soumillion, he did what he could from the draw.

im not 100% sure if the best horse won , orfevre has had to cover far more ground that the winner, plus i actually think that orfevre idled slightly as she crossed the field to get the rail.

i believe there is something isnt right with orfevre has he was caught in the last few yards, it could be him getting tired ..but the way soumillion was riding him looked like he expected more from the japanese raider.

it will be interesting to hear soumillion comments , but it looked like hes flashed his tail as he was crossing the 100 metre mark, and again he looks like hes lost his action right near the end.

The horse has shown be a real headbanger before when losing a race in japan when he just stopped in a middle of a race before deciding to race again.

but saying that, he could have just reached his top speed at that stage, just seemed to be jumping on the spot as passing the post.

either way ...im fcukin sick!

I've had a chance to put the clock on Orfevre now.His last 2f splits were 11.73 and 13.2. The first thing to say is that 11.73 is amazing in that ground at the end of the race. Too fast in fact because he blew up in the last furlong. We know that the horse stays 15f, so either he wasn't quite 100% fit (the trainer said beforehand that he hoped he would be 95%)or the jockey asked for too much too soon. He would have held on if he had a more even finish. The hanging must have been as a result of emptying.Another one that got away from the Japanese after Deep Impact, the best horse they have ever had.

This filly is very good, look forward to seeing her build on this, no flook.

Two fantastic races from the 1987 Breeders' Cup...enjoy

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OSTeIzpbRQY

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rk8G8AR7TaM

Totally agree with that Platini, it all went a little pear shaped after he hit front. He was going straight and true when he was next to the others horses but once he went clear he headed straight for the rail and Soumy really did struggle to keep him going forward. I think the burst of speed might have caught Soumy out a bit on the ground, it will be very interesting to hear what he says.

Nakayama Festa and now Orfevre, it's hard to take going so close again.

Yellow and Green ran a solid race and nearly made the frame, I cannot argue with the way Thierry Thulliez rode the race and she had a nice passage up the rail. She is one to look forward to next year and I'm confident she will win G1 races.

Mr.D - I'm not even comparing Solemia's run with Orfevre...I'm astonished she's done what she has to the rest of the field!

Haya Landa is yet another for the Arc scrap-book of no-hopers being bang on the premises...this game baffles me sometimes

That's why I'd never be too dismissive of what anyone fancies for the race - Marienbard beat far superior colts in Sulamani & High Chaparral with Falbrav way back, and that was on decent ground!

I don't mean to boast (and it'll probably annoy Bazzar) but the scatter-gun has come up trumps with this 'rag' that I never gave a second thought to!
She was a far better winner for me than Orfevre but the substantial monetary difference eases the pain for the Jáp monster - he really deserved it!

PS - The Giant Bolster traded around 1/3 I/R in the Gold Cup and that was another I gave no chance to...sorry Bazzar, but scatter-guns DO work

I have to be honest...I fcuked my AP book up with Camelot & Great Heavens (for different reasons) though I had the field running for me -
I was -£400 on the Gosden filly and that's not what I'd call a proper book (that I usually get) despite not fancying either of them.

ive just watched the race another 10 times, and im certain that the japanese will be sick, im in no doubt that the Ofevre is either a bloody rogue and idled as soon as he got the rail, or he has a problem with his right front leg , im leaning towards the latter.

If you watch the race carefully  its plain to see that he has issues, this is unbelievable!

you have to watch it several times as soon as he hit the rail he changes his lead leg,  spend looking at this link as its better quality
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jZO0q6eYZ2M

im confident its got nothing to do with the horse getting tired, absolutley nothing to why its lost the race.

Orfevre has changed  his legs on 3 occasions from 120 metres out, omg, this is sick.

watch the video several times, all from when he just passes the 2 leaders and heads to the rail, something def wrong with its right lead leg.

1st change of legs 2.34s, this is where he starts coming back to the eventual winner, but when his stride brings him back onto his right leg leg , it jolts and misses another stride to trying and lead of its left (hence why it drifts inwards).

they show in this video at 3.24 of how its hanging, that because it keeps changing its legs, he has even done it on the line, watch as he just passes the line, the horse has a problem with its right front leg and awkwarding misses a stride to change legs again and soumillion looks down at its leg.

I'm not talking down how good the winner is, but we have without dobt seen the best horse lose the race , becasue of either being a rogue, or it having that problem ive detailed.

it could be that the horse is a monkey as soon as he eyeballs another horse, or is close to a crowd.

I'll be surprised if the trainer or jockey dont come out in teh next 24hrs and confirm one of the points which i posted here.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vRh2DaAei5k   thats the vid of him dropping out

i agree navel, probably the best horse to have lost an Arc

i think hes a superstar, and i just hope he turns up in Dubai and sets the record straight, maybe dirt will be better for him, his action on turf could be a problem when it comes to the highest class races.

I’m sure I’ll get pilloried as an aftertiming **** for this.  I backed the winner and prepared this now (after the race) to show my thinking as I made my selection.

I recorded the draw positions for all the finishers in the last 21 years (1991 to 2011) and know there is a big draw advantage on faster ground.  For the 12 fastest times in those 21 years the highest draw for the winner was stall 7 (1x1; 3x2; 1x3; 1x4; 2x5; 3x6; 1x7.)  Remember this for next year’s race if the ground is good or faster.

And I read somewhere (French trainer?) that the soil at Longchamp is clay.  My garden is clay.  When wet it gets very sticky and heavy and clings to boots; when dry it gets very hard and cracks.


Aventino:  In as a pacemaker.  No form.

Bayrir:  Supplemented.  No runs on soft or easier.  Only one run at 12f (and beaten.)

Camelot: Won 5 runner Irish Derby on soft/heavy but did not like ground.  Then had a hard race in the St Leger.  And hasn’t yet raced against older horses.

Ernest Hemingway: Only two runs ever, and last run last of seven.  Must be a pacemaker for Camelot.

Great Heavens:  Good form on soft and over 12f but only against fillies.  Her full brother Nathaniel not suited by very soft imo.  Good draw in 7.

Haya Landa:  Drawn 1.  In 16 of last 21 runnings stall 1 has finished in first 6.   Form on soft and heavy.   Some form in G1 and G2.

Kesampour: Form on soft.  Form  tailing off (?) as he steps from 10f to 11f to 12f.

Masterstroke: Draw 17 of 18 is a big negative.  Only Suave Dancer stall 12 of 14 in 1991, Subotica 14 of 18 in 1992, Sakhee 15 of 17 in 2001, Dalakhani 14 of 13 in 2003 have won from wide.  His form is good but little form on soft and softer.  Horses who do not run on very soft are probably scratched when soft/heavy.

Meandre: Form is ok but declining imo.  Recent form in small field races that might not be too competitive.  Beat 3 fillies in a 4 runner race at St Cloud, two of them fast ground fillies.

Mikhail Glinka:  Group 3 horse at best.

Orfevre: Draw 18 of 18 is a big negative.  Form very good but most of it on firm.  His win on soft in the Japanese Derby was 12f in 150 secs which can not be soft ground.  His Prix Foy was a non-race, he beat noting.

Robin Hood:  A pacemaker.

Saonois: In the Prix Greffulhe he was only 4th of 6.  He reversed that form with Kesampour in the next two races on good/soft.  A pacey horse that quickens but migh not like soft.

Sea Moon:  He has form over 12f and might handle soft.  A possible.  But drawn 16 of 18 lessens his chance greatly.

Shareta: Twice led inside final 2f on very soft and finished 3rd.  The ground will not suit.  Draw 11 not a help.

Solemia: Drawn 6 same as 2005, 2007, 2009 winners.  She has six runs on soft or very soft which indicates the trainer knows it suits her.  Her last ten races 2x11f; 6x12f; 2x13f so 12f should be ideal.  Her dosage index (with high stamina points) is 0.79 on pedigreequery.com which also indicates abundant stamina.

St Nicholas Abbey: Other than his debut he has tried soft ground twice, 2nd in a 10f G3, and 3rd in a 10f listed race.  Even good/soft finds him out.

Yellow And Green:  All her runs are on good/soft.  Only five runs (none as 2yo).  Beaten by Solemia in her last race (3rd and 4th).  She could feature with the weight allowance but surely her price should be higher than Solemia, not lower.

No problem.  I like aftertiming.

Soumillion considers Orfevre the best horse he has ever ridden.

It's worth noting that ALL Orfevre's best form is on FIRM and even his so-called "soft" ground win was on ground timed as "good." It takes a very top-class horse to put up a performance like he did yesterday on such vastly different ground.He is exceptional.

SOLEMIA VERY UNLUCKY

I've mentioned before that ALLIED POWERS (38) is tough to beat in the first week of June or earlier. Toss out his seasonal debuts and his form figures over 11f plus on turf in this period shows seven wins from nine tries. He scored his latest win when scrambling home in a sprint finish for the Prix d'Hedouville. But he looked awfully lucky to beat SOLEMIA (36).

Solemia had earned a Group 1 class speed rating from me when hosing up over the course and distance on her previous outing. This time around she was crusiing throughout the contest. But it became apparent rounding the home turn that she was totally boxed in with nowhere to go.

Olivier Peslier got increasingly desperate to find racing room, switching Solemia sharply towards the rail with only a furlong left. She began to surge forward but to be snatched up brutally as the gap closed on her, losing loads of momentum and her chance of winning.

I have no doubt that Solemia would have won this race impressively if only she'd been able to get clear. But it's worth mentioning that this is not the first time she's had trouble finding a run. My feeling is she'd be better suited by the stronger early pace and longer homestraights to be found in Britain and Ireland. Failing that she surely needs to be equipped with a pacemaker in future to ensure she's not asked to gain ground into a wild sprint finish as she was here.

Solemia may well be the best middle distance filly in Europe. The Yorkshire Oaks would surely be a slam dunk for her thanks to the lengthy homestraight at York. I can't see how she'd have trouble finding a run there.

Nick Mordin back in May

He showed he could handle different types of ground, but just looks like typical solid Gp 1 form to me, not exceptional.

He won't be beating Frankel but he's definitely the best challenger out there.

Has anyone had a check on Soumillon's resume?
He doesn't talk through his arse.

Zarkava for starters!