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**************** L'Arc de Triomphe 2012 ****************
**************** L'Arc de Triomphe 2012 ****************
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CUTH - "hard race last time,not proven against older horses"
I suppose your description is better, but I was paraphrasing with just a word or two  Maybe I should have stated that there are some big question marks against him. |
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She gets the allowances for a reason Blackwater. People throw that about as though it is a certain advantage. What you could say is a certain advantage is the allowances on the Ground ?
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id be pretty sure they'l ge a step on here. wiv GH prob forcing it from her nice berth, cant remember the last all the way winner so she's out. A decent pace will string them out and put a premium on stamina and negate the draw somewhat, an ability to be proven in somme like conditions is paramount and if you are also an advocate of weight telling more in said conditions, then y and G is the smart selection
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She also looks like a colt, is a fantasticly lengthy filly with a narrowish muscular chest and deep quarters - paddock notes from 3 weeks ago
Built 4 a bog innit Allez Thuilliez  |
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I've kept her onside, too, Liam.
But someone posted the stats earlier on the thread and it's very rare for a horse to win an Arc without first winning another Gp1. Great Heavens has done that, Yellow and Green has not. |
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Yep Black, like the fact she won a Gr 2 as a maiden tho, also an unlucky (pilot error) in her maiden Gr 1 wya ?
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camelot - big question marks against him - its a top rated derby/guineas winning favourite - theres question marks against him - what do you want - run the race first and let camelot win - then you could put - allthough hes won it ,i cant see him winning the replay.
its got a favourite chance - lucky for you ,it will be a beaten favourites chance. clearly you ve had no legal training - just vague opinions that may or may not come true.  |
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Until today I thought three year olds are average this year but today I am convinced of it. Shirocco Star (2nd in Irish Oaks behind Great Heavens) couldn't even win a Group 2 race at Longchamp today. There is not much between them so I can't see this race to be won by a 3 year old.
Great Heavens is paceless (no tactical speed) anyway so I can't see him going through in a big field. He wouldn't even win a three year old group 1 race if the field is large like the ARC (18). Irish Derby only had 7 runners. IMHO of course. GL all tomorrow. |
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GH has no meat or veg propunter
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CUTH - sorry mate but I've just not swallowed the Camelot hype at all!
I've been firmly in the Frankel camp and I've never been able to see what all the fuss is about - how there could even be a Camelot camp when Frankel's around is beyond me! He was impressive in the RP Trophy but against what? Again in the Derby and the same question nags you, though Main Sequence did put in a decent display in France. I hear so many supposed pundits (even on TV) making limp attempts to excuse his St.Leger defeat, and Aidan's even done the same! If he wins tomorrow beating Orfevre fair & square, he'll prove me wrong and I'll hold my hands up, but until I see some REAL evidence of his legendary quality, I'm against him! I really believe if there is a runner in the race we'll be talking about in the future, then that only possibility is Orfevre - I desperately want to see him run his race and get a fair chance to show what he can do. |
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navel gazer -
1)back frankel for the arc then  2)the camelot hype - guineas/derby double,triple crown 2nd best in 42 years , - hype.its fact - there is no hype. 3)the only thing stopping him winnning is 3 yr olds arent as good as 4 yr olds, 4)hes still a brilliant horse of his generation.not quick enough for a arc - hes a grinder. |
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"hype.its fact - there is no hype"
Have you heard how Aidan's been 'bigging up' this colt? It's been embarrassing! |
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its a guineas and a derby - if he cant big it up then he cant big anything up.- hype is unproven bull s - camelot is proven .
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I think we'll agree to differ on that score
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5/2 that either (french/english) Derby winner takes the race.
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Aiden needs to hype up a son of Montjeu because Montjeu died. If you can't hype up a triple classic winner what can you? Don't think he'll win though
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btw - if Camelot was hype... why on earth would Ballydoyle send it out to destroy stud value?
excuses can easily be made for the leger.... but a destruction against the best in europe? they know |
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stron - your right wont win ,needs to hype up mounjeu cos hes dead
,surely would want to hype up a stallion that was still charging for his services - whats the point in promoting mountjeu |
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Sea Moon has a massive chance in the ground, he will stay 1m4f in heavy all day as he is a 1m6f horse really, get on at 9s EW with some paying 4 places
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They need a replacement.
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DR you have to worry about Sea Moon conceding so much weight to the young uns.
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how can sea moon beat SNA - sna beat it KG ,now on heavy - SNa is a mountjeu,sea moon a beat hollow g/f horse.cant reverse placings surely.
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Orfevre/Masterstroke, I'm getting déjà vu...
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Forget the KG form, he was given a poor ride by Moore, given far too much to do, he would have needed to sprout wings from where RM had him placed, trained for this off a nice break and will hopefully follow his close relative Workforce into the Arc roll of honour
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well 5 times in 6 years is hardly a trend is it.
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The weight allowance exists because older horses are stronger and generally they will devlop more stamina.To back that statement up, overall 3yr olds have won twicee as many racs as 4 yr old but look at the results on heavy ground.Going back to 1949 there have been 7 races run on really heavy ground and 4yrs have won 4 to 3yrs 3.In havy ground, apart from handling it you also need strength to last home.
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Fair point, well made, Sandown.
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I second that...good work Sandown - where do you find such information?
It's a really interesting point you make. |
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heavy ground, i can already see one of the pacemakers not coming back to them.
theres a potential big priced winner in this field. hope camelot does it however, good on them for running him. |
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ill prob have a score on gosdens, really nice horse, ground and trip fine.
gl |
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comingupthehill
06 Oct 12 23:13 Joined: 10 Jul 05 | Topic/replies: 3,625 | Blogger: comingupthehill's blog how can sea moon beat SNA - sna beat it KG ,now on heavy - SNa is a mountjeu,sea moon a beat hollow g/f horse.cant reverse placings surely. SNA ia a better horse on tight left handed tracks. id put a line thru him winning based on the track alone, we shall see. i love him so id like to see him go close but cant see it myself. |
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Solemia
Draw: good Stamina: good Form: bad Ground: suits Stamina: good Jockey: good Odds: 75 |
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only hours to go, well after looking at the race for the last 2 months i can only come to the conclusion thhat my 2 selections have ok chances, i still think that orfevre is the best horse in the race and my book mirrors that .
my 3 selections for the 123 are orfevre,masterstroke,Great Heavens. Great Heavens is really worrying me, Gosden has again completley done the whole market 5 days before the race, what a ****! |
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I have backed
St Nich 19.5 Bayyir 32 Meandre 36 |
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Saonais is a 2.8-1 favourite on the PMU early on though there's only 43,000 in at the moment, he's been tipped up a lot in the French media. Sea Moon is 47-1, SNA 35-1 and Ofevre is around 6-1, the prices will probably change when the money is bet on track. If lots of money comes for Orfevre then Sea Moon and SNA could be a be huge prices as I don't think they will rate an horse like Sea Moon as he all ways finished behind SNA and he's not done so well in the past in France. Yellow and Green, Masterstoke and Meandre are also shorter on the PMU
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heavy ground, i can already see one of the pacemakers not coming back to them.
I really hope you're right ILWAB. It would be a memorable Arc for me if Robin Hood or Aventino landed it. Five figures (and all on the left of the decimal point)! When you're a layer there are always one or two that you don't get into the book. I'll not count those chickens just yet - even though you are a very wise man. |
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The ground is given as Heavy and that demands a fresh look to be taken because I have learned over the years that when the going is truly heavy then all form must be viewed through that prism. It is not enough that a horse can handle it it truly requires a horse which can improve for it and be at it his best on it. Strange results can occur.
A cursory look at the form book may not be enough because even a WIN on heavy ground may only be because every other horse was even worse. Take Camelot at the Curragh. AOB "won there despite Joseph saying that he absolutely hated the ground." Favourite after that? Those with genuine heavy ground form who appreciate the surface are Great Heavens, Sea Moon, and Kesampour. (This one confuses me because his action doesn't look like that of a soft ground performer.)Those with soft ground form include Masterstroke,Orfevre, Solemia. Interestingly, of these 6 horses, 4 are drawn 15,16,17,18. Who says a wide draw is a disadvantage today? Orfevre's soft ground win may not be a genuine soft ground given the time so there is a doubt there. I was against Sea Moon earlier but now conditions have changed and it may be that we are looking at a horse which has done very well in G1 without winning despite not getting his ground. (Trainer says he needs cut.) So, in conclusion I am staying with Orfevre as he is the best on paper, Sea Moon because he can improve and Kesampour because he is a big price. I'm leaving GH because she is a filly and her form is not really up to G1 standard. Masterstroke is my "worry" horse given the trainer and I might save on it. Those with soft ground wins to their name are Orfevre (but the time suggests that it was good maybe good/soft),Masterstroke |
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defo not impossible Pete.
i will cheer them on for u. didnt back anything in the end. gl |
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Sea Moon 25/1 on the PMU. Way too big. Total underestimation of his chance. Saint Nick 31/1. Another one. Either of those at those price are decent bets.
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