Encouraging words by Soumillon after the Orfevre gallop saying that the horse went well on soft ground at Chantilly, which having been heard on ATR's Arc preview may be behind the colt hardening again. I've given the effect of the draw a lot of thought. As you may know, they have to keep a position for a while in France but Soumillon can drop him in before the back straight ends. Providing he handles the turns without wanting to run out, then he has plenty of time to make up a few places before the false staright. They will probably be bunched on the rail in the final staright and Soumillon should have about half a doxen places to make up with 2.5 furlongs . Iwould be more concerned for Sea Moon from stall 16 as Moore will probably want him more on the pace than he did in the KG as the horse does not have the same finishing speed as Orfevre so he must need a position earlier and may use up a bit to get there. Nevertheless, I foresee that this year the outside draws may not be as much of a hindrance as on fast ground. Expect a few bad luck in running stories.

I really don't get all this confusion about the ground.

The official going for today's meeting is 'very soft' and there's rain forecast.

Swagger

Based on one race only, the ground looks as soft as it was for Workforce's Arc. But, the day before that race was much softer and it dried about 0.4 secs pf overnight with the new strip. So, providng that there is no heavy overnight rain it could be good/soft tommorow.

Head on the block, I would say about the same as Imperial Monarch had back in July and not as soft tomorrow as for Dalakhani,Montjeu,Sakhee. Know more after this next race.

Thanks guys. That looked pretty testing to me and it was raining, you will need a horse that stays very well in the Arc tomorrow. I don't think the draw will matter myself as half the field have virtually no chance and some of them will hate the ground.

Jockeys have described it as testing and holding in the straight. Premium on stamina.

A slight u-turn yeah Roo but I still dont think she'll win, just the draw coupled with the ground have increased her chances.

Really cycnical people would believe this has been her main target all along Roo. It's hard to prove otherwise aswell imvho. They have stumped up £100k afterall. I just dont like her. She's never looked like an Arc winner to me but my form is dire right now so she might just win.

Yes it looks horrible ground, it's going to be a war of attrition - survival of the fittest and all that, it could be borderline bottomless come the Arc tomorrow.

Aga Khan on ground for Shareta, 2nd in last year's Arc: "If it stays like it is today, it won’t suit Shareta" but Bayrir "should handle it"

is Ernest Hemingway a pacemaker for the AOB horses?

Anyone know how today's times have been at Longchamp (compared to standard) to get a handle on the ground?

At the prices they are, the money for Great Heavens (8.4) Yellow And Green (22) & Solemia (70) has me baffled!
Those prices are bananas!

Even the rags with no chance of even getting the frame aren't as big as I'd have assumed

its pissing down

Thanks Zil - that's what I would have suspected after the money for horses I just don't like - doesn't augur too well for me with Great Heavens
What about the times of the other races?

I think Shareta will be fine on the ground despite connections stating it won't suit her - she's ran some big races on soft ground so maybe those comments are just relative to her preferred conditions.

If I had the money in my account, I'd be laying the tits off Yellow & Green (20) & Solemia (70) against the sizeable greens next to their names in my AP market - they're far too short.

The connections of Masterstroke & Bayrir seem very content with the ground, and although I'm not a big fan of either, ANYTHING can happen if the ground gets even tougher!

I think there could be a big run in Kesampour but I have to admit that's sheer bias, as I've always liked the colt and thought he was capable of improvement with a decent pace and a better surface - the going (as with many others) is a concern for me, even though all his races have been with plenty of give in the ground.

I haven't heard his trainer's views about this but as it doesn't seem to be deterring his backers, I'm guessing he thinks it'll be fine - many seem to be getting interested in this colt.

As admirable as he was, it should be remembered that if a bum like Mubtaker (NEVER a group one performer) had the run of the race and only got nailed very late, then softer conditions opens the door for others with no obvious real chance.

Even though there are rags in the field who presumably will be playing pacemaking roles, are we definitely gonna get a good pace on this ground?

I think the likes of Shareta & Kesampour will get themselves handy positions and be the ones to strike first, and it's tough to give away ground (as a hold-up performer) with soft going - first run can prove crucial, so I hope my 'winners' aren't anchored at the rear.

I'd tend to take the Aga Khan at his word when he says the ground will suit Bayrir but not Shareta.

And I think you're right NG that if it's a bog tomorrow the formbook goes out the window and anything could happen.

I just hope there aren't a heap of non-runners. I've a nice book and I don't want it ruined with a load of reduction factors.

Completely agree Mr D - Gatewood improving horse yes, but only a handicap winner ffs

The link in Masterstroke's form was Top Trip who didn't exactly excel today

Only for financial reasons, I'd settle for Masterstroke or Yellow & Green to win but I don't fancy either!

PS - did the Aga Khan mention the ground for Kesampour?

I think Shareta's starting to look very big now, and could drift further with the ground concerns, but that doesn't concern me too much.
She ran a great race at Saint Cloud behind the forgotten horse Meandre in a bog (though officially G/S) with Galkova & Danedream behind, and I base my view on such visual evidence.

There's another horse that Fabre insisted was a fast ground performer - he handles any ground.

I know you juggle a book Navel, but stop buggering about and give us the winner please

Shareta and Great heavens for me,i figure Great Heavens made for soft ground my concern the overal poor profile of the 3yrlds and her running style she will be staying on well(needs clear passage) and i hope she wins for Gosden but Shareta may get first run and just hold? Have bet both. Good luck!

And I thought you were on the fence before

Roo - I'm no Sean Boyce!

I can't exactly change my tune now but this ground is a real concern, and invites a shock!

I'll be gutted if I don't make a few quid out of this market (after months of getting so many decisions spot-on) and one of those fcukers (Camelot or Great Heavens) wins

It's all about value and offloading at the right time, at prices I consider to be unattractive.

I've come a cropper with Great Heavens and did the same with Yellow & Green (but wriggled out of it) and conversely, the likes of Reliable Man helped me out a bit even though he's a NR, as I was sure he'd run, held on to my balls and unloaded at prices even under 40's after continually backing him up to odds of 400!

Mistakes are made, and sometimes it'd be criminal to offload at three figure odds - you'd be gutted if one of those won!
I really do sympathise with the 1000 layers of Great Heavens as they're fcuked, and hoping for the best, but for the backers of the filly at 1000, wouldn't they be sick at unloading at a price like 200's to make a few extra quid?


PS - I got bummed by Synchronised in the Gold Cup as in the days before the Gold Cup) he was looking like a NR (drifted from around 9 to 38) and I unloaded at something really silly about 30
I still made a few ton but he was a huge winner before the mayhem with him & Grands Crus, who even more unfortunately I didn't lay off

The worst aspect was that he ONLY reached about 27 (I think) I/R and I was confident he'd have hit my higher prices I set from 38+