Horse Antepost
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 1220 comments are related to the topic:
**************** L'Arc de Triomphe 2012 ****************
**************** L'Arc de Triomphe 2012 ****************
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 1,220
|
By:
All the cards falling nicely into place for Sea Moon, fresh & set for the Arc months ago, the 3 outstanding chances now out & gets his preferable soft ground. Has to be the eachway bet of the year for mine at 10/1, only worry for a collect being bad luck in running as occurred in the King George but they won't make the same mistake twice & am confident he will be ridden in a striking position & ready to pounce.
|
|
By:
bollocks, i feel like ive really messed up here , GH was 1000/1 5 days ago.
its too much of a move here im thinking.  im now considering the RFC with orfevre, gosdens philly is only 10/1 , i mean ffs, how the **** does he get away with it everytime.the only ones that i cannot put lines through is orfevre,masterstroke and now the **** gosden filly. what have i done |
|
By:
"only worry for a collect being bad luck in running as occurred in the King George but they won't make the same mistake twice & am confident he will be ridden in a striking position & ready to pounce."
 Which race did you watch. Not going to be in the 1st 6. |
|
By:
GH doesn't have a prayer Rozell, but if you think she's a winner then just back her at 12/1. Forget about her price 5 days ago, that was because the stable had told everyone she was being aimed for Ascot and Nathaniel was going to France.
|
|
By:
I've had small bets on Kesampot at 65/70 now. Dont think he is that good but is lightly raced enough 6 runs 4 wins for the trainer to find a bit more.
Some firms are paying 4 places. |
|
By:
The betting's interesting.
Ladbrokes are shortest about Camelot, and they are supposed to have a hotline to Coolmore. It hard to see Joe Public backing the Japanese beast. So throw in the Frankie factor, and maybe Camelot goes off short here. |
|
By:
My view is the same as Sints, i personally think if anyone hasn't had a bet in the race then at the current prices a place lay of Great Heaven is a regulation bet, the ground won't be bottomless and some people are over rating her form. It takes a top class filly/mare to win this race which in my opinion she clearly isn't.
|
|
By:
Camelot is clear fav on here now. It's not because of the informed opinion of backers on the forum for sure, as most seem to be against him, so it can only be the general punters money with bookmakers being arbed back on here. Why else or how else, could it be so short, I wonder?
|
|
By:
reports on RP website say the ground will be at least soft if not very soft on Sunday which I wasn't expecting, I thought good to soft at the worst
|
|
By:
When is the draw known ?
|
|
By:
will camelot run if its very soft or worse.
|
|
By:
You have to admire Coolmore and the gang, they are still trying hard to keep the legend of Camelot alive. Sticking Dettori on board was a one way golden ticket to the head of the market and also catapult him on to every top sport and news website around the world. Genius, next we will hear O'Brien say these two were meant to be together, the perfect combination, it's destiny!!!
Maybe I'm a bit cynical about this jockey booking but it looks like desperation to me to try and keep this colt in the spotlight of the world media. Camelot would struggle to beat some of these on Good ground never mind Soft IMO. |
|
By:
They probably see it as a no lose situation, if it doesnt win people
will excuse it because of that hard race in the St Leger. |
|
By:
But it isn't a no lose situation. If he fails to win against a field that has now lost 3 stand out candidates, that would have major consequences as a stallion.
Yet again they have mucked it up as they have the ideal replacement for him going to run on a nice, tight turning track in Canada |
|
By:
Curioser and curioser this race. The weather f/c now sees more rain likey and the ground will be on te soft side for sure. Will this suit Camelot? No, but his price hardens. Orfevre meanwhile is drifting. Why? Curious.
|
|
By:
The real Orfevre afficionados suggest that his real weapon his turn of speed. Whilst he has form on soft, there will surely be a risk that will be blunted on the likely ground?
|
|
By:
Nakayama Festa has the same sire as Orfevre (Stay Gold) and he had no problem with the Very Soft ground when he came 2nd in the Arc! It was very wet conditions in Japan when the monster won on Soft ground and he cruised through the slop that day and won easy. I take onboard what you said about the time he clocked in that race Sandown but maybe he's quick on Soft ground as well!
 The top notch horses go on all types of ground and I think the monster is one of them. The draw worries me more than anything! |
|
By:
OK Mr D, so what would you say is his optimum ground?
|
|
By:
Frankie texted Sheik Mohammed to tell him he was riding Camelot
Frankie Dettori has taken the biggest gamble of his life by riding Camelot in the Arc Finally, professional pride overwhelmed even the power of the dollar, the dirham, and the pound. This week might even be seen as a turning point in the fortunes of the world’s highest-paid jockey. By HOTSPUR (J A McGrath)telegraph.co.uk 04 Oct 2012 When Frankie Dettori agreed to ride Camelot for the Coolmore conglomerate in Sunday’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp, he took the single most important decision since the day he left Italy, still in his teens, and arrived in Newmarket to try his luck. Not required for the Arc by Godolphin, his employers, Dettori had been on standby to partner Snow Fairy, but the Ed Dunlop-trained mare now misses the big race because of a leg injury. To many, it might seem something similar to now be taking the mount on Camelot, trained at Ballydoyle by Aidan O’Brien. But, this is not just another outside ride and Dettori has the knowledge and the experience to know that. In 2005, when he won the St Leger on Scorpion, he later apologised to Sheikh Mohammed for the lack of courtesy shown when he switched late from Motivator in the Irish Champion Stakes to ride Scorpion for arch-rivals Coolmore at Doncaster. Sheikh Mohammed had granted permission for Dettori to ride Motivator after an apparent approach from Buckingham Palace through Royal Ascot syndicate manager Harry Herbert. Godolphin wanted him at Goodwood that day, but his employers were not given the option. This time, Dettori is understood to have delivered the news of his Arc booking on Camelot as a fait accompli, by text. It seems that the frustration of being pushed to one side by young talent Mickael Barzalona, the French rider who joined Godolphin earlier in the year, has finally manifested itself in a bizarre decision that may have serious repercussions. The days of the retained jockey ended long ago in most ports in racing’s global village, but Sheikh Mohammed has fostered a brand in Godolphin that has both publicised Dubai and furthered his racing ambitions. Dettori has been a major part of that brand success, his name being synonymous with his employer and his country. The hefty retainer he receives is reward for that but with it also comes expectations of loyalty. That is being tested this weekend because his employer still has a professional rivalry with Ballydoyle/Coolmore, no matter what some may say. Camelot is now a clear favourite for the Arc at 5-2 with Ladbrokes, mainly because of the Dettori factor, and he will face a maximum of 17 rivals. As expected, French Derby winner Saonois was supplemented on Thursday, along with the John Gosden-trained Great Heavens, who won the Irish Oaks on her latest start. The likely soft ground and defection earlier this week of her year-older brother Nathaniel, for the same connections, no doubt prompted this move. Gosden said: “It wasn’t a straightforward decision but she’s working nicely and is in good order. “They had significant rain in Paris overnight, so a few things weighed in favour of running and I think the owners have made a very sporting decision to let her take her chance The Aga Khan’s Bayrir has also been supplemented but Reliable Man was scratched. There was good news late on Thuesday night for Sir Michael Stoute when Ryan Moore received the all-clear from the BHA to partner Sea Moon. He has been out of action since suffering a wrist injury at Warwick in August |
|
By:
Good question again Roo and I think you know what I'm going to say… Good Fast Ground!!!
I'm just trying to make myself feel better here. His stamina will come into play on Soft ground with a nice turn of foot to get him out of trouble!! |
|
By:
I might be very wrong but I think Longchamp is clay soil which gets very sticky when wet and very firm when dry. My guess is the present soft will change to good or faster in the dry warm weather.
|
|
By:
The forecast which I trust has the weather as dry tomorrow, but then Saturday afternoon has between 4-6mm of rain, enough to keep it at the current 'soft' and perhaps turn it softer. I hear what some others argue in the interpretation of French going as being slightly better than declared, but there is still enough rain forecast for it to be genuinely on the soft side.
|
|
By:
Roo, Nakayama Festa's optimum conditions were Good Fast ground as well but he nearly won an Arc on Very Soft and he came 4th in his only race (G1) on Soft ground in Japan. I don't think it's going to be a problem.
Have all the other horses in the race got an amazing turn of foot on Soft ground?! I haven't seen any but the one I think might is Yellow and Green. |
|
By:
No Mr D, but others optimum conditions would be soft ground.
I don't know whether it will stop him, I hope not, but my comment was a suggested explanation of why his price is drifting a little bit. |
|
By:
Fair enough Roo, maybe everybody has been hoodwinked into the Dettori/Coolmore love in or they are trying to find value in other horses. I've backed Orfevre at 16-1 three times over the last few months (posted) but if I was coming in fresh now I probably wouldn't back the monster at his current price! That isn't the kind of bet I like to make, I prefer smaller stakes bigger price and hopefully it works out!
|
|
By:
Exactly my thoughts, have him at 16s also. Also had a decent bet on Nathaniel had 20s and think in the ground he would have gone very close. Like you I wouldn't have taken their short prices and part of me actually now wants to take Orfevre on as he is too short. If Camelot does come out and he goes very short, I may well trade a bit
Also added Sea Moon e/w to smaller stakes at 16s earlier this week ( one whose chance is definitely enhanced by slow conditions ) and took a small punt on Great Heavens at 60/70. All other speculative punts gone west |
|
By:
I think the price and Soft ground has made people swerve Orfevre now. The carnage earlier on in the week and trainers not being up front tarnished this race but hopefully now everything will settle down and a clearer picture will emerge. I can see why you and many others are looking at other horses but I still have a lot of faith in the monster.
I don't like to bet on multiple horses in races and Orfevre was the only one for me but I've backed Yellow and Green EW at 33-1 a couple of times after Danedream came out, mainly due to the weather forecast. I think there could be more to come from this filly on Soft ground and Nicolas Clement has had a few winners/placed horses this week. All the best Roo! |
|
By:
I got MASTERSTROKE at 33/1 e/w a few weeks back and most pleased with this, a very underated horse who just loves the track in gay paris... will certainly go very close
 |
|
By:
Roo - I take it you mean Imperial Monarch should be running here. If so, I agree with you. However I'm not so sure about your stallion point. Camelot may well be a ready made replacement for the late Montjeu and stallions' price depends (after the first couple of years) on what their progeny do on the track - which could turn out to be anything.
|
|
By:
I should add that even if he gets stuffed on Sunday he'll still be a double Derby winner, 3-time classic winner, 4-time Garde 1 winner, 7 races 5 wins - so a pretty attractive punt as a stallion. If he wins....
|
|
By:
Strontium - the FACTS look attractive when you put it like that and his victories can't be taken away from him...plus of course the incredible hype will give him every opportunity to have a quality book of mares when he eventually goes to stud, and every chance of becoming the next Galileo or Montjeu!
I won't believe it until I SEE IT where it comes to this colt, and for that matter...EVERY other Coolmore inmate! I've STILL got a few running for me in this race but I really believe this Jáp is something special and if he turns up, he could fcukin' blitz this lot! I asked on another thread how connections compare Orfevre to Deep Impact and nobody was any the wiser, but he looks more impressive to my eye that that Oriental superstar, who was himself a seriously good colt. This is the only performer in the field who's capable of a mid 130's mark (in my view) and that would mean a handsome victory for him - I've been drooling over this horse for so long now, it's almost fate that he wins this in imperious fashion! Nevertheless...money talks, and I can't help but hope one of my rags nails him!  He's still a four figure winner for me, but I'd prefer a extra zero on that return with a 'skinner' like Kesampour  PS - at the price he is right now, I think he's great value and I can't allow myself to lay him at a massive 5.2 on here - I'll set a few I/R lays at around 6/4 and shorter as if he's on song, there really isn't anything to fear. PPS - bet of the year at odds against in a match bet with Camelot...I strongly suspect most on here would agree with that. |
|
By:
To get the mares like Galileo and Montjeu he first needs to prove he is as good a racehorse and imo he is a good way off.
Obviously he is very good and despite the incredible weakness of this year's classic crop, as you say you cannot take his classic wins away from him. Margins are so tight for breeders the fact is if he doesn't win an all aged race it may count against him. If he gets beaten that position will be worse and to get the book of mares he needs to prove himself his fee will need to lowered accordingly. |
|
By:
Orfevre 18 of 18
 |
|
By:
Unbeievable what this year's race is going through. n top of the withdrawal, the draw puts orfevre out with the washing at 18, sea Moon not much better off at 16, and with low draws Saonois in 2 and Camelot in 5.
Expect Orfevre to drift even further now, especially with th ground even sfter than seemed likely at the beginning of the wee. So, has his chace gone? Not so sure. First off, this is a hold-up horse anda wide draw may be less of a problem than a very low draw. As he has won most off his races by coming wide and late, it may not effect hom too much. And remmber, when a widedraw has not stopped horses winning ithas been when the ground was soft. |
|
By:
Camelot in 5 and most pertinently one of his pacemakers next door - the horse can have no excuses
|
|
By:
Does anyone have a link to the full draw please?
|
|
By:
Racing Post @Racing_Post
#arc2012 draw - 11 Shareta, 2 Saônois, 6 Solemia #arc2012 draw 8 Aventino, 18 Orfèvre , 13 Méandre #arc2012 draw - 17 Masterstroke, 5 Camelot, 16 Sea Moon. #arc2012 draw - 14 Bayrir, 3 Yellow And Green, 1 Haya Landa #arc2012 draw 10 St Nicholas Abbey, 7 Great Heavens, 9 Mikhail Glinka #arc2012 draw - 4 Earnest Hemingway, 15 Kesampour, 12 Robin Hood. ffs 18 |
|
By:
http://www2.france-galop.com/FGWeb/domaines/courses/courses_calendrier.aspx
|
|
By:
Any truth to the rumour that Great Heavens worked all over Nathanial?
|
|
By:
It's interesting to note that last year, the TS going allowance for the Sat was -0.20 secs pf i.e times reduced by that, and given as good, whereas on the Sunday the going allowance was + 0.24 sec per f i.e added to times, and given as good to firm. A change of 0.48 secs per f equivalent to 5.28 secs at 12f for time enthusiasts or around 32 lengths. I haven't checked other years but this is how quickly the ground can dry at Longchamp bearing in my that for the Arc there is a fresh strip of ground in use.
|