hmmm Navel,

im not so sure about great heavens, the filly can only beat whats put in front of her.

i hope your right, but filly's can improve massivly from month to month...just look at Danedream last year.

do agree with your comment about the irish oaks, but its a filly we are dealing with here so we need not to be dismissing her so quickly.

i just think its a bit of a pointer on why gosdens running her, it must have been the plan for some time, and its a factor with gosden in group races.

I agree that Gosden was aiming at Fillies race at Ascot for GH so this would be an afterthought if it happens...will know shortly. Much of the talk on here seems to suggest it is a definite.

As far as the Irish Oaks was concerned, I would suggest it was an inexperienced filly's fourth race of the season and not long after her Haydock victory. Obviously it was a big step in class for and whilst the stamina obviously helped, the fact that she came through a flat spot speaks volumes for her natural ability imo.

If Gosden is true to his word then he would have GH at concert pitch in a couple of weeks time so whilst I have had a small stab at a decent price, it would be a massive ask for her to win

For those of you who like Sea Moon's chance be aware that the Arc is the virtual G1 championship over 12f and as such it takes a proven G1 performer to win it. The last time that a horse without a G1 to his name to win was Carnegie back in 1994 trained by Fabre.I don't know how many have tried and failed since then. 12/1 is plenty short enough I would say.

swagger

A wide draw is a problem for any horse who likes to front run or be on the pace as they use up to much energy getting there but if he prefers to be held-up then a low draw can be a disadvantage with there being too many up the rail in the straight so the draw can't be viewed without the context of the tactics to be employed.So, it all depends.

Sea Moon looks like a good staying type whose chance would improve with plenty of cut but on the balance of his form I see no evidence of a good turn of foot which would improve his chance if the ground is faster than soft. What he might have done is conjecture and comparisons with SNA do not help much as SNA doesn't look to be good enough to win without one or two others under-performing.Not saying that SM can't win but at the prices I would be a layer rather than a backer.

swagger

Completely agree about Masterstoke. Don't know about the ground being soft, i.e our "soft." As I said, it usually rides faster than predicted and the weather from now on looks fine. I'll go for good, possibly good to soft. The only horse who might be not quite advantaged is Shareta, whilst it might not be soft enough for Great heavens.

Some terrible prices on offer here - Sea Moon, Masterstroke and Camelot should be at least double the price they're currently trading at, and Great Heavens and Bayrir are plenty short enough too given their form and preparations. The value lies with Saonois, as it has for a while, with outsiders like Solemia, Kesampour and Yellow and Green only worthy of consideration if it stays soft.

For people who think Sea Moon is a terrible price at 12/1, perfectly fair enough we all have opinions which is what it's all about, what price would you chalk him up if he didn't run in the King George where it was subsequently found he had a setback and lest we forget he started 2/1 fav for that race? I look through this field and can only respect one horse as proven to be of a very high class level in Orfevre, but the Japanese have yet to show they can condition a horse to win the Arc so that is factored into his price. I would personally have Sea Moon around an 8/1 chance in this field maybe a touch shorter around 13/2 (with a good draw and cut in the ground) as he would have a strong place chance so wouldn't want to lay him too high in the place book and if it went wrong for Orfevre then he doesn't have much to beat for the win itself. I remember having the same argument with people on here regarding First Lieutenant for the RSA Chase, fair enough he didn't win but his price wasn't terrible as he placed second so the bookies were right to not have him over 5/1 to reward each backers on the place. The mug bet in that race was Grands Crus who was never going to stay the trip and was a terrible price.

I agree regards Camelot who if trained by someone like Peter Chapple-Hyam would be 16/1 as the form is horrific, the Irish Derby arguably bottomed him out and he looked like a horse who had done enough for the season last time out. But i concede the bookies have always had him short in the antepost market which is the only angle i give him of winning the race, as his form gives him very little chance even with the withdrawals. Also, it's sporting of connections of Great Heavens to run, but if people think Sea Moon lacks the pace to win an Arc then they obviously haven't seen her run!

bbsband - Well i would be indebted to you to put me right regarding Camelots form and to show that Great Heavens isn't a poor womens Nathaniel as i say sporting of connections to run her, as it was sporting of connections to have run Masked Marvel who i still think is going around Longchamp? I think Longhchamp will have the bollinger, smoked salmon etc rocking for the big JG again

Fair enough swagger its all about opinions I guess! Should be a bloody good race and to be honest really looking forward to it.One thing I do know is there will be a few hard luck stories i.e the draw,horses getting boxed in,cutting up,bad timing of runs etc..
Would have liked to have seen top trip entered also.
Roll on Sunday !

True, Great Heavens would need cut in the ground and weight concession
should help.Not without a chance imo.O Brien has a dour record there but
he has a habit of surprising people with his horses.
Certainly can forgive Camelots st leger run.Maybe an off day??

I must admit Saonois is a bit of an unknown, i have been lazy and assumed he wouldn't stay so will have to have another look at him. It's just a personal choice but i'm never a fan of when horses run over 6 furlongs early on in their career if they are thought of as a middle distance horse but maybe i'm just naive and it could be a different approach in France. I heard that it rained all night, is still raining and the clerk of the course is expecting the going to be 'Very Soft' by the end of this morning so Great Heavens backers hold those dockets!

Sandown - I agree regarding Orfevre and the ability of the Japanese to condition a horse to win big races including the Arc, i just meant that in terms of facts they haven't won it yet which is why his price is perhaps bigger than it should be but they have been unlucky and if Nakayama Festa had any sort of jockey would have arguably won a shade cosily a few years back. I agree that Orfevre has everything in place given a fair draw and given a fair shake in the race itself.

If Sea Moon should be twice the price he is now then why did he go off 2-1 for The King George? His Hardwick form is better than The Derby, Coronation Cup, Irish Derby, Irish Oaks etc so lack of a Group 1 is just a stat and I thought he did show a fast turn of foot in The Hardwick. He got a terrible ride in The King George and had no chance plus he's one of few we know will appreciate soft ground. Horses just don't win The Voltigeur by 8 lengths and I think he's a horse who is difficult to predict but worth having a bet on at big prices and avoiding when short. On form I'd give him a fairly similar chance to those way shorter than him but have to admit I don't know how good Orfevre is. Still I've got 33-1 and 20-1 so am on the right side of the price.

The value has always been with the French 3 year olds. Which one is probably ground dependent, but Kesampour has a reasonable chance if you excuse him making his run at the wrong time at Chantilly (it was a very messy race) and accept that he blew up in the Niel (dictated pace, so few excuses otherwise). His chance would be improved with real soft ground that would bring out his stamina and blunt the speed of those like Saonois (who should be fav imo). Others like Bayrir and Yellow & Green are decent prices. Market made by Camelot, Sea Moon, SNA and Masterstroke.

Anyone know of a market for backing the nationality of the winner?

Sandown
Id certainly agree with the look of his action, even in the French Derby, the only thing that leads me to believe that it suits him is his form and that fact, at least at Chantilly is that he looks to be hitting the ground quite hard, id agree that Saonis's stamina isnt a worry for me at all, his action would be the thing on softish ground in spite of what his connections say and he's a saver on decent ground

Anyone know of any decent bars/drinking areas for this weekend. First time over, any advice welcome. Cheers

Just heard on Timeform Radio before that horses have yet another chance to supplement for the Arc tomorrow morning

Surely they've got that wrong

im cursing myself here, im still sticking with Orfevre as was my main pick 8 weeks ago, and im on some value with this masterstroke at 32/1.

This great heavens is still a real worry for me , ive just got this horrible feeling that Gosdens playing a card here that ive completley missed it , i should have taken note with regards to the possibility of running her instead of Nathaniel gives Nathaniels season and the way gosden and nathaniel line them up with this princess haya.

Its not so much with being bullish with how good the filly is, becausue i cant be the judge of that, its more the case that all of a sudden its been hammered into a price within a matter of 24hrs and ive just got this horrible feeling that its been the target for a long time....and normally in a race like the arc , only a few can win it with regards to their seasons preparations.

Its one of the main reasons why i didnt back Danedream/Nathaniel for good bets, and its the same reason why i wouldnt touch Shareta or Camelot.

Gosden/Buick is such a class combination that its only a matter of time that they lined one up for the race...and like i say , i think i might have missed the boat on this one, if it would have been any other trainer i would have had interests some time ago...but i just cant get gosdens right.

People always say that gosdens is as honest as the day is long but im of the opinion that he is quite the opposite with how he enters his horses in group races, i dont know what it is but he just seems to go under the radar of most.

well ..i will be sick if it nips orfevre or masterstroke on the post on sunday...sick sick sick

ingore second paragraph, typing and talking on the phone at same time doesnt work lol... corrected paragraph.

This great heavens is still a real worry for me , ive just got this horrible feeling that Gosdens playing a card here that ive completley missed it , i should have taken note with regards to the possibility of running her instead of Nathaniel given Nathaniels season so far... and the way gosden campaigns his horses owned by the rothshilds

strontium
Joined: 21 Sep 05
Replies: 2709 04 Oct 12 15:00   
twonky, that's quite selective. You could add as major stats 3yos have won 17 of the last 20 (or so) and single figure draw has won 8 or 9 of the last 10.

3yo colts don't worry me, as I said, a poor bunch, and with the exception of Frankel and Nathaniel, so were last years. As for draw, take your pick, just a peril of ante-post betting.

Check the 4 starts over the last 20 years. Won't be too far out.