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**************** L'Arc de Triomphe 2012 ****************
**************** L'Arc de Triomphe 2012 ****************
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Thanks guys. All things considered Saonois for me, but not with much enthusiasm.
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With some big guns drawn wide and others with a good draw not really convincing, is there a chance of a right old boil-over on Sunday?
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Really disappointing news about the draw for Ofevre. Despite this I still can't have Camelot at all.
But can you imagine the hype if that poor Derby winner picks up a soft Arc? |
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Just looked at the Vermeille again (u toob), Yellow and Green caught my eye, from the worst draw she had to be tucked in, didnt get the run when she wanted and then flew home to finish 4th of 13. With a better draw (3), softer ground, the excellent 3yo stat and the fillys allowance - 33s seems generous still.
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Oh dear. Sorry to impart bad news on the draw, but it has to be said.
I looked at the finishing positions from the past 18 Arc results and compared them with the draw. I weighted the results by the number of runners as just looking at where the winners come from ignores the field size. The results for a place showed a bias but not as bad as expected. Those drawn 1-9 could have expected to pick up 33 places - they got 39 Those drawn 10 and above could have expected 21 places - they got 17. So,a bias in favour of low draw but not a huge bias. However, the results for the win show a significant bias to those drawn low, I'm afraid. Those drawn 1-9 could have expected 11 winners - they got 16 Those drawn 10 and above could have expected 7 winners - they got 2. One point to note is that draws 9-12 were poor - expected 3 wins, they received 0. So 13 out was not quite as bad although still poor - expected 4 wins, they got 2. Make of it what you will. |
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Pity the horses can't read.
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I have to admit I sometimes admire your stubborness bazz. Point of note though is that horses go where the jockeys say and they can read.
Whilst i can see the argument he is better drawn on the outside than in 1, surely you wouldn't have chosen 18? Whichever way you look at it, the draw is not in Orfevre's favour |
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dont think the draw is that important this year as quite a few of the field have virtually no chance what so ever.
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There isn't a horse in the field that hasn't got at least one or more serious question marks against it. And, as San Quentin says, its very odd that half the field with very little chance have got a very large number in low draws whilst the majority of fancied horses are berthed poorly. It could mean that a lot of the rubbish will clog up the inside leaving the outer the place to be.
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Sorry guys but the stat Sandown quoted is one that is relevant because it has a reason behind it. I'm not one for stats in handicaps such as age, number or runs etc but the draw at Longchamp is important and you don't want to be drawn wide - simple.
I'm not saying Orfevre cannot win, of course he can and I hope he does. People are continually crabbing Camelot and whilst I agree the substance of his form is not great, as I said earlier, his Derby win to my mind is the best 3yo middle distance form. Its not just the horses he beat, it was the way he did it. And we know what an advantage the 3yos get wfa and hence why there have been so many 3yo winners recently - again for this race a meaningful stat. He clearly hasn't gone on from Epsom but he is obviously a talented colt. He has a great draw in 5, right next door to his pacemaker and I am sure that Frankie will ride him more handily - and there is still no better jockey from the front. To implicate that Orfevre's draw is not important when his market rival, I accept that is open to debate as to whether he should be, has a perfect pitch is frankly ridiculous |
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When I place an ANTE-POST bet I do NOT worry about the going or
the draw, because I believe I have backed the BEST horse in the race according to my precepts, so why worry at all, wasted energy? QE SERA. There is nothing I can do about any situation which may arise, DANEDREAM is in enforced quarantine due to an unchecked blood bottle which was contaminated, the vet will not be blamed, but checks should have been made before the transfusion, we HAVE to move on because the race must go on. The best horse will win it just needs a cool head, with determination from the jockey, NOTHING is insurmountable. |
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OK bazz, no crying post event about being beaten by the draw then. Of course nothing is unsurmountable and we are all the same regarding AP bets, balanced of course in my mind by the price.
So let me ask this, if given a choice, what stall would you have given Orfevre? |
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Never gave it a thought, from what I have read about the trainer,
he seems to have his head screwed on, but with a dose of pessimism thrown in, I can put my trust in a trainer like that, because he will accept it as part of the game, he has had a VERY good grounding with western trainers and witnessed the failure of DEEP IMPACT trained by his father, what will be will be. I am not bragging when I say I have backed THOUSANDS of winners down the years, but have learned from my mistakes and am much happier than I have ever been. I am more discerning than when younger, I can't get worked up about A/W racing unless the Lingfield derby or the Lincoln trial at WOLVES. |
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OK bazz, you've lost me now.
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Soumillion, almost certain to drop the horse in at the back and scythe his way through the field. Orfevre has speed to burn, and is without doubt the class horse in the field. Who dares wins!!!
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ClayDavis 05 Oct 12 11:40 Joined: 07 Sep 10 | Topic/replies: 3,500 | Blogger: ClayDavis's blog
Any truth to the rumour that Great Heavens worked all over Nathanial? CD - I'm not saying you haven't heard that, but I think that WILL be just a rumour for several reasons and I can't say I'd believe a word it! First of all...Nathaniel isn't himself at the moment, so if it did occur it'd be meaningless, as Gosden has stated she's behind the colt in his estimation. Secondly...Great Heavens would need deep ground and a trip to beat Nathaniel, and the gallop would've probably just been a breather over 7f - he'd murder her for speed! I'll look pretty silly if Great Heavens wins this race (a very false price) even allowing for the defections and her getting her requisite conditions...nearly as much as the poor suckers who've laid her at 1000  |
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bazaar is right
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btw, the stable stated that GH was better than nathanial , they stated this in July.
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Shocking draw for the monster but he can still do this. It had to be gate 18 the way things have been going!!! Soumy likes a challenge, he did it with Dalakhani so he can do it with Orfevre. It could be a nightmare for the ones on the inside, some right plodders drawn low. Aventino could help and cause some havoc from 8!
 A bit late on the scene with Yellow and Green Liam but totally agree!  |
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I heard about two weeks ago that Gosden said the colt was superior...maybe he's got better since July and she's regressed since that bruising Irish Oaks?
 There conflicting reports seem to be more prevalent nowadays  |
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From what I remember the owner was having that purple patch with Nathaniel, Meandre, Mince and GH etc and it was she who suggested that GH was potentially the best of the lot
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Roo - I remember that now...was it on Ch4 Racing?
Anyway...who's gonna listen to an owner over a trainer like Gosden? |
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'Potentially' navel - Nathaniel year older and better suited to the Arc may be how Gosden saw it
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I find it fascinating how contrastingly some of us review a race...
Liam wrote; Just looked at the Vermeille again (u toob), Yellow and Green caught my eye, from the worst draw she had to be tucked in, didnt get the run when she wanted and then flew home to finish 4th of 13. With a better draw (3), softer ground, the excellent 3yo stat and the fillys allowance - 33s seems generous still. At least she's made the gig unlike a few of mine I wrote a few weeks ago; There has been plenty of renewed money for this filly at what I figure is a very skinny price of 50 (so someone on here's backing her) but I just can't see what all the fuss is about - just because she was rear division and finished well in the Vermeilles means nothing to me...she couldn't get into the race as I saw it, and was just running on through beaten horses. She didn't travel exceptionally well, wasn't given an awful ride and had a clear enough passage - Shareta had them cold, even though she had the run of the race, and Yellow & Green will surely NOT be able to reverse the form - there's nothing in her previous form to suggest she'll be on the premises and it's a real leap of faith to expect anything much better from her. It's ALL about value and I think there's NOTHING in that 50's to get TOO excited about. I still believe I'm right, but as she's a big price, she's now onside in my AP book though I have irritating reds on Camelot & Great Heavens to worry about now  I always had a niggling suspicion Camelot would be withdrawn so I've continued to lay him - there's hope still for me, as that trainer seems to get his kicks from farting us around!Sea Moon isn't enough of a winner to put a smile on my boat so hopefully he'll drift a few points as he hasn't got the best of the draw. |
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Navel, I have to agree with Liam on this one regarding Yellow and Green. I've explained earlier on the thread the reasons why I've backed her EW and I think her Vermeille run was very good especially when Thierry Thulliez only gave her a hands and heels ride from a rubbish draw. She is lightly raced and COULD BE a big improver, especially if the ground remains on the soft side. Nicolas Clement has won an Arc before so I'm sure he knows what he's got and his team have always felt this filly is a classy sort.
My one worry with her is the draw (3) and Thierry Thulliez dropping her back rather than going forward, he has a tendency of doing that kind of move at the start of the races. Your brain must be frazzled with all the goings on this week, I'd book a holiday if I was you! |
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Mr.D - I am shattered!
Good luck if you're on but I'd hope something better will be winning this - as I said earlier...she's onside now (I even got another tenner on her at 60 last night) as she drifted after being what I thought was a very false price (as low as early 30's) and I couldn't resist unloading to the max on that. |
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I repeat an old joke of pre-judgement, two farmers at logger heads for years
and one needs to plough one of his fields, thinking it over he decides he has to ask his enemy and sets off across the fields between their farmhouses, on the way he stops full of doubts about the other farmer willing to help, setting off again nothing ventured nothing gained, but doubts persist, eventually he reaches the door of the farmhouse and knocks totally unsure of the outcome, the neighbour opens the door and the farmer who needed to borrow the plough, says "well you can stick your plough up your harris" and slinks off back home, the moral is if you don't ask the question and receive the answer, then how can you succeed? |
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I don't know how you do it Navel, way too much stress for me. I think I would have self combusted by now dealing with that many horses!
I still think the monster will win but thought Yellow and Green was worth an each way dabble. With all this Ante Post drama going on anything is possible. |
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Mr.D - I'm not 'guaranteed' a winning book as it stands right now as I still have to back Camelot (-£250) & Great Heavens (-£400) to remove a red, and to make it worthwhile, have another bet on Sea Moon.
That's gonna cost me a few hundred quid to do so, but there are four figure wins on the rest of them, so for a tuppence ha'penny gambler that's more than a result! I'll lay a fair bit back I/R to reduce the deficit if the worst comes to the worst and Camelot or Great Heavens boot me in the balls. Of all the 'hot potatoes' to be holding, it's a 3/1 fav I've been very unfortunate with major withdrawals & decisions beyond my control but the overall judgement has been vindicated - there were a few for 5 figure wins that I couldn't sell as they were just too big to lay back, and every one of them got fcuked! I kept Treasure Beach onside, as the way O'Brien changes his mind, I wrongly figured he might run as he did last year...even as a pacemaker - he was a £30K green I STILL can't understand why Sapphire especially wasn't considered for this as I really rate her - I hope there's soft ground at Ascot in a fortnight because she'll be a decent price - I won't be stung again in backing her ante-post You're right though...the last 10 days or so have been very stressful and I'll be glad when it's over! |
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Sea Moon's a green for only £150, and I've purposely left a rag (Mikhail Glinka) in for a £600 deficit as if all my plans go awry, I've still got that in my kitty - he's got fcukin' NO chance, but I suppose I'll throw £2 on him
 Doing this keeps my interest in all the top European stuff over six months so it's worthwhile for an enthusiast like me to keep abreast of developments. The bonus at the end is nice but what I really want is something like Meandre to pop up for £4300 I'm gonna try and back a few other 'rags' over the next two days and get them even more onside, but alas, unlike last year, I don't have anything running for FIVE figures! Shareta would have paid for a nice holiday last year |
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Next big issue is the ground.
Plenty of peole hedging their bets (including Ryan Moore on this site) but the going is currently soft, with rain forecast for Saturday, so surely we're looking at testing conditions. I think Camelot is a horrible price anyway, but on soft ground he's unbackable. It's a negative for Orfevre as well. Obviously Sea Moon and Great Heavens will be better suited by conditions. But as someone mentioned above, with the favourites poorly drawn and not getting their ground, this has become a wide open race. |
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I wont be backing her but may have to revise my opinion on Great Heavens in the context of this race now she has been handed a handy draw and Soft ground.
Am one of the many who have 16/1 on Orfevre, as posted on other threads a month or so ago, but i'll be gobsmacked if he wins from 18 on Soft. Only other bet is Kesampour. Probably shuld have nibbled the 28/1 for Y&G with PP who are 4 places but she's now 22's. gl folks, at least we'll get an idea today what the ground is really like. |
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On the PMU site the going description is: Terrain très souple - 18°C vent 20 km/h SO. (Very soft ground - 18 ° C Wind 20 km / h SW)
It will rain from around dinner time today, atleast we can see with todays racing what it's going to be like as the description is between Good to soft to heavy depending on where you look online |
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Currently very soft so almost nailed on to be heavy i would have thought
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Sintonian,if you dont believe Orfevre can win from draw 18 trade out for a profit just now. He is my only bet in the race,and I would not swap him even with this draw for anything else in the field. Most on this forum are of the opinion that this Arc is one of the poorest for years, ( due to the late withdrawals). He has always been held up in Japan and just appears to make it look so easy. Soumillion has won the Arc from high draw before, and there is no reason he wont do it again. He is on the best horse in the race afterall!!!
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I did consider it Akak, when he was 3/1 the other day before the draw. He is now 5/1. Just going to let him run now and hope he prevails. It would be very nice if he did.
People keep mentioning the withdrawals, but one of them Snow Fairy would not have run anyway on this ground. They would have saved her for the Breeders Cup. |
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I love your passion for this horse Akak, I'm still a believer and he has the perfect partner in Soumy to get a good position from 18. I've watched the Dalakhani race a number of times now and even though there were only 13 runners in that race he still made it look easy, top class jockey on his day and around Longchamp even better!
I've been a fool in the past not backing horses because of a poor draw, this is horse racing anything can happen. We could see something special tomorrow and I don't think the ground will stop him either! I think Ikee and his team knew well before they came to France there would be a huge chance the ground being on the Soft side. Why would they go to all this trouble getting him over here if they thought that was going to be the stumbling block! Rulership would have loved the Soft ground but his owners (same as Orfevre) left him at home, they are still confident. Good luck all! |
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You have done a bit of a u-turn with GH sint?
That's nothing on my u-turn with Sea Moon, and I actually backed him  . And then he gets drawn in the same car park as Orfevre.GH is possibly my best chance to get someting out of the race now |
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This is gonna be some race. Have Orferve as my biggest winner. Then Shareta with Camelot being a tenner in the green for around £400 worth of Bets. Danedream was a kick in the cahooneys for me as took the fancy price of it though iv also go a wedge of the 16s that i backed on Orferve by checking out the Threads on here so thatnks guys. Iv looked and look at U tube races and for Me if Orferve is good enough the draw cannot be an excuse. Sine its last winner of a high draw can anyone point out a horse that would have won bar the draw ? It is also typical that given whats happened that Orferve would get such a high draw and Camelot gets a sweetie. Im hoping Shareta sets it up for Orferve in that last 2 furlongs so may even forecast the 2 of them if them but maybe im getting greedy lol. Cannot have Camelo and have him as my best winner of the year due to decent punts in 2000gn and Derby. Frankie or No Frankie which is a really really suspect booking imo.
Anyway good luck folks. Arc is always my Fav race of the year :) |
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Any updates on the ground/weather?
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