I would not discard Camelot just yet.
I have his Leger run as 4 lb behind his Epsom performance,but at Epsom he had a few pounds in the locker and if he reproduced that at Longchamp he has the beating of Danedream who,for my money ,is the key to the race;assuming Frankel does not go.
But there are those who take the view,a perfectly reasonable view,that Camelot ran to his best at Doncaster.In that case Encke would have a chance in France were he to take his place in the line up.I Googled to see if there was any chance of that happening and it appears not to be the case but,thanks to Google,I now know that Encke,the astronomer,did a lot of work on Arc Orbits.Could it be in the stars?

Joey Obrien saying Camelot is a ''definate,possibility''. Like father, like son innit.

Btw, Masterstroke was tipped at 33/1 several weeks ago wasn't he, by Segal? So today he has just endorsed his own view again yeah?

I think you may have missed this bit, bizz...."If you have any particular Qs I'll do my best to help."

By the time I had come back on the always helpful Gopher had sorted our man out.

(Why am I explaining myself ffs!! )

Anyway, I have broken one of my golden rules today (twice) and don't anticipate doing so again.  So see ya budd....keep taking the tablets

An interesting observation from Nick Mordin regarding the 3 year olds this season. It might have been mentioned before but I thought I would post it anyway.

Report taken from nickmordin.com

It's fascinating to note that Pastorius is the only three year old to win a Group 1 against older males all season in Europe. In the previous sixteen years there were only four where three year olds failed to win less than five Group 1's against older males by this point in the season, and the lowest total was three races (in 1997 and 2007).

It is also interesting to note that in two of the previous four seasons that three year olds had racked up less than five wins by this time against older males in Group 1's an older horse won the Arc. Seeing that there have only been three wins scored by older horses in the Arc since 1993 this looks significant - and again underlines the chances of older Arc runners such as Danedream.

Mr Dinos

To narrow it a little further, there have been only 8 winners over the whole 91 yars aged 5+ and only 3 in the past 53 years of that age group. So, a 4 yo it  is, then. Easy. Which one I wonder?

I'm not sure where connections are taking Pastorius Navel, but he did run a decent race behind Danedream and Ovambo Queen. Danedream wasn't race fit in that race and the other two probably were, hard to gauge the merit of his run but Ovambo Queen is a good honest filly.

Great stuff Sandown, Orfevre it is then! Haha

I'm just trying to convince myself a 3 year old will not win the Arc. Saonois might but Masterstroke, I couldn't have that one on my mind. Tom Sagal must think Ok Coral is a good horse, he got thumped by No Risk At All over 10f, an easy 2 and a bit length win for NRAA giving away 4Ib as well. OC under 1 length behind Masterstroke at Deauville, don't get it!

As 3yr have won 59 runnings (32 in past 52 years) we shouldn't be too dismissive of their chance but Mordin's point is interesting to say the least. Will Cameot run, I wonder?

I have a feeling of deja vu with Ofevre as he looks to be another Deep Impact.I was one of those who saw DI as the best since Sea Bird and I had an almighty wager on him, only to be partially saved by the ridiculous PM price on Rail Link. The preparation is different and they have put up a jockey who knows the track. The only other element is the pace and tactics. DI was used to being held up off a fast pace and he didn't get either in his Arc. Otherwise, Orfevre has the same credentials and this could well be the year for them, especially as the trainer has European experience.

Sandown - I know hindsight's on my side but this Orfevre has impressed me much more than Deep Impact, because we're (or specifically I'm) starting to get a better grip on the form than what we could even just a few years ago.
Rail Link was 24.6 on the PM?
I remember him being 13/2 on the day of the race...there's another big fish I missed

Mr.D - it's a big net alright...and there's plenty in it!
PS - I mean horses that are earners for me...not the forum!

As I said the other day...we all have our different methods and one of my tactics is to grab the big value when a horse has disappointed, and I'm gutted to have missed out on Orfevre when he ran a shocker - he reached 85 in April (didn't even see it) and that run could easily be excused after his ball-busting run when he ran that schizophrenic race to be second.

Is there a slight concern about his temperament?
Any theories as to what went wrong in the Spring?

Mr.D - can you give me a link to those comments.
Thanks.

Thanks Mr.D but I have NEVER been able to track down ANY articles in the Racing Post news archive, even when I've had the exact text of the headline!
I'll have a bash at the Sporting Life site instead.

Mr.D - I like the Sporting Life's search options as recent news reports are easy to find...I got that article about Fabre, and although he's a shrewd man, I'm somewhat puzzled by his pessimism about Meandre & Last Train.

I've NEVER heard anyone say that in a slowly run race, the best horse usually wins
I'd say it was the speediest one, which bears no real merit in the next encounter that's likely to be frantically run!

If Camelot did run surely O'Brien won't do the weight? Your not going to get away with putting up overweight in an Arc. Would guess either Moore or Heff would be on board.

MM - interesting point about the O/W...3yo colts carry 8st 11, and Joey would struggle to do that - is his weight 9st?

LWHM - despite being very impressed with Saonois, as he's showed a terrific finishing burst (and tremendous guts) on his last two runs, I think he may struggle to stay.

I was checking on his sire's progeny (Chichicastenango) and the only ones of real note have failed to see out a proper 12f;
Vision d'Etat & Bubble Chic being the most notable examples though there's often the odd spanner in the works in these cases, and that's the decent stayer Blek.

It wouldn't be the biggest surprise but I figure his price has little value in it now.

As for that Arc winners stat about back to back victories...since Alleged in 1978 the winners have been;

1979 Three Troikas - her final race
1980 Detroit - her final race
1981 Gold River - retired after finishing third to Ardross in the Prix Royal Oak.
1982 Akiyda - her final race
1983 All Along - THIRD a year later
1984 Sagace - DISQUALIFIED a year later
1985 Rainbow Quest - his final race
1986 Dancing Brave - retired after Breeders' Cup
1987 Trempolino - retired after Breeders' Cup
1988 Tony Bin - retired after Japan Cup though he was runner-up the previous year
1989 Carroll House - didn't make the race the year after
1990 Saumarez - retired after Breeders' Cup
1991 Suave Dancer - didn't make the race the year after
1992 Subotica - retired after Breeders' Cup
1993 Urban Sea - didn't make the race the year after
1994 Carnegie - SIXTH a year later
1995 Lammtarra - his final race
1996 Helissio - SIXTH a year later
1997 Peintre Celebre - his final race
1998 Sagamix - didn't make the race for the next TWO renewals
1999 Montjeu - FOURTH a year later
2000 Sinndar - his final race
2001 Sakhee - didn't make the race a year later
2002 Marienbard - his final race
2003 Dalakhani - his final race
2004 Bago - THIRD a year later
2005 Hurricane Run - THIRD a year later
2006 Rail Link - his final race
2007 Dylan Thomas - retired after the Hong Kong Vase
2008 Zarkava - her final race
2009 Sea The Stars - his final race
2010 Workforce - TWELFTH a year later
2011 Danedream ?????


Very interesting that of the last 32 winners, only 14 (inc. Danedream) remained in training the year after, and of those, just EIGHT made the gig.
TWELVE horses said farewell to the sport straight after winning the Arc.

Of the 8 defending champions that ran the year after, I think only Sagace & Montjeu were favourites - that goes some way to explaining that long-term stat about Alleged.

8/8 is not a stat to get hung-up about. It's very little evidence really.

Good for her owners that they do try to defend the crown. That´s how it should be. I know they are set to retire her and it´s unlikely that she does win again, but if she did, I don´t know how you can? Two Arc´s and a KG. Is Ribot not the only horse ever that has done that? How could they deny her a shot at something even more historical, if she came through again this year?

Some good stats again Sandown, do you know how many KG winners had a run in between the two?! Danedream showed the KG didn't leave too much of a mark with the way she ran at Baden-Baden. Off the top of my head I think a few might have gone straight to the Arc after the KG but I might be wrong.

IMO I think Danedream is just a tough little cooky with a lot of class and I wouldn't put it past her running another stormer. She is the one I fear the most.

I do love stats and it can be a good way of narrowing the field down, cracking stuff lads.

Mr.D - to be honest I HATE stats in general as they tell a 'partial' story and can easily manipulate the truth.
Besides...many are just nonsense or coincidence like stall numbers winning.

The patterns I pay attention to, are the tried & trusted routes that have been happening since I started following the sport, and I'm more interested as to WHY these things emerge.

As with the 'St.Leger Trials' thread I posted after the Voltigeur, I like to find the reasons WHY such patterns emerge and in conclusion, I thought I made some rather obvious reasons as to why these trials are 'in the mix' year after year.

This is a slightly different case, in that it intimates that there have been loads of defending champions beaten when it isn't really the case, though form figures of 3D664330 are far from inspiring.

I have to say that several of those mentioned regressed as 4yo's, but Montjeu's demise was a bolt from the blue...his wonderful career went out with a whimper - I can't remember hearing any concerns about his welfare before the Arc, but I KNOW he was not the same horse that Autumn - any rumours you guys are aware of?

Those last three performances certainly overshadow a glorious career, and at his best...he was one of the top half-dozen middle-distance performers I've seen over the last 30+ years, and very much like Nijinsky, it's sad to see such a champion go down on his sword, when still running a top-class race (Champion Stakes against Kalanisi) though EVERYONE'S unanimous in believing both colts were superior to their victors.

Finally, it seemed to take a long time for the penny to drop with English trainers as regards their preparation for the Arc, but they've learned their lesson to such an extent that the French are now facing an incredible FOURTH consecutive FOREIGN theft of their Holy Grail.