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**************** L'Arc de Triomphe 2012 ****************

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By:
bazzar
When: 21 Sep 12 19:39
Now the ante-post rules state that bets are accepted, all in run or not enter or not,
in what I consider to be a logical thought process, that such a rule was a heinous
and unjust rule, how can a horse who was never entered be considered a loser?
To my way of thinking it cannot, if it was entered then the intent at the time of entry was for the horse to run and in that case if subsequently injured or not got fit enough to do justice, then stakes are lost , but NOT if the horse was never entered.
These rules were made up when it was illegal to bet and to admit to gambling would leave a participant open to criminal proceedings, there has never been an update in relation to this rule.
I have used I.B.A.S. on two occasions and have never got a satisfactory judgement in my favour, they use the price takes care of the risk, argument.
The first time, the horse was injured and never ran again, it was injured at the time I placed my bet, yet the adjudication was exactly the same as price and risk, I admit I had not seen when it was injured, but as RIBOTMAN points out the scam is still going on as regards RULERSHIP, some sort of regulation should be in place to be fair all round.
By:
Navel-Gazer
When: 21 Sep 12 19:50
Bazzar - IBAS are in bed with the bookies...there's no doubt about that!

I have had just the one dealing with them when I under-staked a complicated multiple bet, and the bookie just applied whatever rules he wanted to, which meant treating a decent priced winner as a non-runner, because by his logic, it was the last leg of the bet! Shocked

He said he'd stick by IBAS's decision, confident that his own T&C's would 'defend' his actions, and knowing full well that IBAS would tell me there was fcuk all they could do - that was around 20 years ago and the bastard robbed me of about £700 Angry

I despise the vermin, and I haven't got a clue how they've managed to cultivate this 'sporting/fair-play' image for themselves with the average person in the street Sad
By:
bazzar
When: 21 Sep 12 20:03
I believe that they are funded by the bookies, but it is difficult to prove,
their site does not inform how they are funded and victories either way, are
never published, THE HEADMASTER took the bookies part and it developed into quite a long drawn out argument with ROOBUCK and PETE THE BLOKE taking sides with THE HEADMASTER.
Think about this NAVEL, if you wanted some people to follow your opinion which NOM DE PLUME would you use.
I have had lots of jobs over the years and the late 50s and early 60s were some of the happiest times for me, I worked at PETROCHEMICALS in CHESHIRE and a very good friend was a guy called TOMMY EDEN who used to booze in the FLYING SAUCER in Speke, he's probably dead now but he was a good mate, a foreman rigger.
By:
roobuck
When: 21 Sep 12 20:09
Please point me in the direction on that thread bazzar, I genuinely have no recollection of any such discussion involving me. I suspect you just want to pigeon hole me. You know if you are wrong about this I will call you a liar. The only time I got involved with HM was when I thought your insults on him were unjustified I genuinely don't believe I got involved in the actual argument. Happy to be proved wrong, I don't hold onto everything as you seem to.
By:
Navel-Gazer
When: 21 Sep 12 20:15
Baz - I don't give a shíte if someone's view is the polar opposite of mine...I have no intention of falling out with them over a difference of opinion, but in the case you mention, I'M DEFINITELY on your side!

I can't see why you'd worry about a conflicting version of events that someone else has Confused

PS - I don't get what you're saying about a 'nom-de-plume'...you do speak in riddles sometimes Happy
AND I don't want ANYONE to follow my opinion...a forum is about sharing views and I like to hear from others, and every now & again I'd like to think I can contribute with the odd snippet.
By:
roobuck
When: 21 Sep 12 20:16
And by the way, should there not be an AP market on either of next year's Guineas? No entries yet.

Should people not be allowed to back Saonois for the Arc? Not yet entered.

Rulership is entered for the Arc yet bookies cannot price up? That's hypocritical.

The above is a little of devil's advocate. It is our choice if we place a bet, nobody elses
By:
Navel-Gazer
When: 21 Sep 12 20:59
Roo - I get you're point if you want to back horses that have yet to be supplemented, but backing ante-post should come with some sort of proviso that the bookmaker should honour, along the lines of NRNB.

I don't see why backing ante-post means you lose you stake if they don't make the gig, as the perceived value there used to be many years ago, has been well & truly ransacked...when you see a bum win a juvenile hurdle on the 5th of fcukin' JUNE put in at 12/1 fav for the Triumph (Grand Gold, and it was stuffed on its next run!) it proves they're really taking the piss, as I'm sure they had ZERO bets for it!

If there was a market on here then, I'd have laid the sac off it, and I'm certain there would have been NO takers!
By:
Navel-Gazer
When: 21 Sep 12 21:01
PS - I genuinely wouldn't have taken 12/1 that it makes the triumph - it could do...and if so, it'll be 1000 on here!
By:
bazzar
When: 21 Sep 12 21:06
I could be getting mixed up ROOBUCK, it was about 2 years ago if memory serves.
Nom de plume is French for pen name, we had to use a NDP so we could be identified when
we had a bet, and runners were used as go betweens, for instance one of my nom de plumes
was MOTORBIKE, hope that explains.
By:
bazzar
When: 21 Sep 12 21:12
I took a gamble last year by backing DANEDREAM for ARC, but was prepared to lose if wrong, as she was not supplemented until 30th Sep, first bet 7th Sep. I am prepared to lose in an instance like that but it was a judgement by me and not pushed by lies from someone else.
By:
Navel-Gazer
When: 21 Sep 12 21:14
Baz - I know what a nom-de-plum is...I just didn't get what you meant Confused
By:
roobuck
When: 21 Sep 12 21:15
Navel I disagree. I have backed a couple of horses for next year's guineas. That may be considered a mug bet by many but the fact it is, it was my choice. I know that there are no entries made and it is unreasonable for books to offer NRNB.

The problem is that books do offer ridiculous prices AP but I maintain if people are stupid enough to take them, they deserve the consequences
By:
Navel-Gazer
When: 21 Sep 12 21:19
Fair enough Roo...we all have our preferences.

Just out of interest...I think I'll get a screen shot on oddschecker for the Cheltenham Festival races, save it, then consult it next March - there'll be loads that'll be bigger on the day if they get there.

I think bookies could do NRNB permanently on AP bets...they've got over-rounds bordering 300% for most races!
By:
roobuck
When: 21 Sep 12 21:22
So Baz you made a mistake did you? If I took your attitude I would simply call you a liar.

You think you can simply throw insults around and take every time someone disagrees with you personally.
By:
roobuck
When: 21 Sep 12 21:30
Anyway completely off topic now.

None of my long shot options are going to run so my main investments are Nathaniel and Orfevre. I fear Danedream but my last investment will be on a AOB runner, preference on IM if he runs?

Good luck all
By:
Navel-Gazer
When: 21 Sep 12 21:31
Just out of interest Roo...what were you long-shots?
By:
roobuck
When: 21 Sep 12 21:36
Last Train, Speaking of Which and Princess Highway. The last two of which were not entered. Really thought they were/are decent animals and as such would win their last races putting me in a trading position at least.
By:
Navel-Gazer
When: 21 Sep 12 21:54
I managed a quick trade on Speaking Of Which for 400 points though it was just cover.

Princess Highway however, put up the best performance of the season outside of group one company at Ascot, and such runs leave an indelible mark with me - I didn't think the ground would bother her in the Vermeilles, but that was definitely not her best.

She was a really decent winner for me, and I backed the other Moyglare filly (Sapphire) as well, as one wanted soft and the other good going, so I (wrongly) figured I'd get a run out of one of them, particularly as the same connections ran a similar filly in Market Booster a few years ago Sad

As The Headmaster said earlier...it's very difficult to second-guess Dermot Weld.
By:
roobuck
When: 22 Sep 12 18:55
Back to Sapphire. You say that Weld has sent two to quarantine but from what I can see he has only 3 entries.....and Rite of Passage apparently is being aimed at the Prix du Cadran
By:
PeteTheBloke
When: 22 Sep 12 19:43
What's happening to Frankel's price? Someone bet 20/1 just now. I thought he was out of the race, end of story??
By:
PeteTheBloke
When: 22 Sep 12 19:48
Seriously...  I like all the speculation as much as the next man, but this one's been put firmly to
bed, hasn't it?

For what it's worth, my tip is Shareta. I don't think I tipped anything else. If I did then
this supersedes my last tip Wink
By:
Elbows McGuinness
When: 22 Sep 12 19:51
Heard a whisper that it was unlikely, but still possible. The outright statement made weeks ago may have been to prevent a media clamour focused on Warren Place/Juddmonte.
By:
InTheBath
When: 22 Sep 12 19:56
Betting on Frankel now can simply be a matter of 'What If ....?'.  The connections seem dead set on sending him to Ascot and therefore could not take the Arc in on the way.  I would also like to believe that the connections are simply too honourable to change their plans once they have declared them.  By this I do not mean that they are particularly concerned about punters, rather that they make their plans and stick by them.
By:
PeteTheBloke
When: 22 Sep 12 19:56
You could be right Elbows. All Sir Henry needs is the media camped on his doorstep.
By:
Elbows McGuinness
When: 22 Sep 12 20:13
Can't agree with the assertions of InTheBath. Doing the "dishonourable" thing and running at Longchamp would be a hugely popular move. Also, running in the Arc doesn't preclude a horse running in the Champion Stakes. So You Think ran very well in both, and Frankel is obviously a vastly superior horse.
By:
InTheBath
When: 22 Sep 12 20:59
Elbows, like you I would see it as tremendous should Frankel run in the Arc - we all want it! But the point still stands that they won't change their minds.  They have weighed everything up, including your points below, and having stated their position that is what will happen barring (God forbid any) accidents.  If the races were scheduled the other way around then the story might have been very different.
By:
Elbows McGuinness
When: 22 Sep 12 22:34
Highly unlikely to run, granted. So any chance of you laying my measly bet at 55? Can't understand the mentality of those who have laid a horse like this at three figures. Tiny upside, enormous downside.
By:
PeteTheBloke
When: 23 Sep 12 10:35
Elbows - I laid as much of the 55 as I could afford. Hope that helps.

As for understanding laying, just think of it as betting but the other way round. I lay Frankel
because I don't want him to be a huge winner while (say) Orfevre comes out at break-even.
By:
PeteTheBloke
When: 23 Sep 12 10:36
PS If they announce he's a definite runner at 11am today I end up with egg all over my face and I'll blame you!
By:
bazzar
When: 23 Sep 12 11:09
Is it the supplementary stage today, PETE?
Last year it was about 3/4 days before the race.
By:
InTheBath
When: 23 Sep 12 11:32
You are correct, Baz.

Betfair rules has it right:

Market Suspensions:
10.30 CET 2nd & 3rd October - Forfeit Stages
10:30 CET 4th October - Supplementary Stage
This market will close at 10:30 CET on the 5th October. A day of the race market will be available shortly after.
By:
PeteTheBloke
When: 23 Sep 12 11:46
Sorry. I didn't mean to mislead you. I posted at 10.36 and I was just saying I'd look a complete
fool laying 55.0 if they came out half an hour later and said he was going to run.
By:
InTheBath
When: 23 Sep 12 13:00
Camelot reinserted into Arc market by VC and Hills this morning.  Also backed on here down to a recent low of 6.6  (12.45pm).
Has there been anything from Ballydoyle on him as an intended runner, or is this just more speculation?
By:
HaylingBilly
When: 23 Sep 12 13:03
On the RP website :

Aidan O'Brien on Camelot's next possible run
"If it is decided that he will have another race this season then we're really talking about either the Arc or the Qipco Champion Stakes and it could be the Arc for him."
By:
bazzar
When: 23 Sep 12 13:11
As Shakespeare said the "slings and arrows", let them all come
she will beat them again.
By:
bazzar
When: 23 Sep 12 13:14
Thanks for the info, IN THE BATH.
By:
Navel-Gazer
When: 23 Sep 12 15:55
"Back to Sapphire. You say that Weld has sent two to quarantine but from what I can see he has only 3 entries.....and Rite of Passage apparently is being aimed at the Prix du Cadran"

Roo - maybe he's got candidates for other races...I'm sure I read recently they were already in quarantine.

I've just googled Galileo's Choice & quarantine and found this: http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/sport/2012/0919/1224324159968.html

Seems like I'm talking through my arse again...but at least I'm a bit right Crazy
By:
Elbows McGuinness
When: 23 Sep 12 19:26
PeteTheBloke 23 Sep 12 10:35 Joined: 10 Mar 03 | Topic/replies: 2,214 | Blogger: PeteTheBloke's blog

Elbows - I laid as much of the 55 as I could afford. Hope that helps.

As for understanding laying, just think of it as betting but the other way round. I lay Frankel
because I don't want him to be a huge winner while (say) Orfevre comes out at break-even.

The strategy is a poor one IMO. Backing at 55 should have only a minimal impact on your existing book, while laying such a runner could have disastrous consequences.
By:
InTheBath
When: 23 Sep 12 21:50
One observation - the Arc market on here is made up to 95% on the 'Lay' side even at this stage 2 weeks away.  (This is a more complete market than some Irish races even close to the 'Off'!).  This means any alterations to the front dozen in the betting will cause considerable ripples in the market - worth watching closely. 
Camelot makes 14% of the market (but I still think he is too short even at 7/1 and won't be trading shorter than this even if he is declared); even Frankel still makes up 2%.
By:
PeteTheBloke
When: 23 Sep 12 22:13
Very wise words InTheBath. It's probably even more up in the air this year than most other years.

Elbows: that's the way the cookie crumbles. I don't want to mention actual figures, but I can afford
to take your bet on Frankel because of the bets I've taken on other horses.

Sintonian - are you reading? I'd be fascinated to see one of your lists of probable/possible runners.
It is you who produces such things, isn't it?
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