Considering (or despite) Camelot's outstanding race record, you have to say he's still got plenty to prove.  He's hardly beaten anything of note, has he?  Big fish in a small pond imo.

They must be crushed he didn't burgle that Leger.  He could have been whisked off as the second coming, which would have been very timely after the loss of Montjeu.  Now even the believers must be doubting what they've been watching.

I'm not sure he's even the best 12f 3-y-o colt in Europe...which is saying something as there ain't a lot out there.

If they can pump an Arc into him it will be a magnificent achievement.

A 3 year old (Girolamo) won the Preis Von Europa G1 in Germany yesterday which was only the second time a 3 year old has won an all age G1 in Europe. Funny how it was another race in Germany that supplied the result for the 3 year old generation. The question is, apart from Danedream how strong are the rest of the 3yo+ German runners?!

I did find it amusing yesterday that Gregorian, 3rd and 1 length behind the winner Most Improved in St James's Palace Stakes G1 and half a length from winning the French 2000 Guineas G1 could only scrape home against an average handicapper (Atlantic Sport) at Hamilton. I don't know why Gregorian was running in a 4 runner C3 race but that sums up all the 3 year olds this year for me. Poor!

I don't agree with everything Nick writes but I do find his analysis interesting. I just hope his right with this one!!!

Nick Mordin analysis of the Arc trials last week
Report from nickmordin.com

ORFEVRE WILL BE HARD TO BEAT IN ARC

I think we witnessed an extremely well executed strategy when the Japanese Triple Crown winner ORFEVRE (42) won the Prix Foy on Arc Trial day at Longchamp. The strategy seemed to be aimed at bringing the horse on in fitness without subjecting him to a hard race.

Orfevre's pacemaker Aventino (35) set a slow pace until five furlongs out, at which point Orfevre was lobbing along seven lengths behind in last place. From there Orfevre picked up smoothly and slipped through on the inside two furlongs out to take the gap Aventino's rider created for him. It didn't take long for Orfevre to go clear to the point where his jockey was able to let him coast for the last five or six strides, allowing the runner up Meandre to close the gap to a length.

Sectional times show that Orfevre covered the last 1000 metres (five furlongs) in just 56.79 seconds. I concede the long downhill run to the furlong marker at Longchamp is partly responsible for this. But the brilliant sprinter Moonlight Cloud only managed to clock 56.28 seconds for the same section when winning the Moulin on the same card after encountering a moderate pace for the first three furlongs. For a mile and a half horse to run just half a second slower is quite something.

A whole bunch of strong statistics point to Orfevre now being the one they all have to beat in the Arc.

Orfevre won the Japanese St Leger over 1m 7f on lightning fast ground against 3yo's. But it looks like he's better over a mile and a half as his two runs against older horses beyond that trip have resulted in the only defeats he's suffered in his last ten starts.

Earlier this year Orfevre pulled hard on his first run off a break and did the same here briefly in the early stages. But he soon settled and will doubtless do so sooner in the Arc as he won't be so fresh and keen and will be running behind a much stronger early pace.

In a year where the three year olds are a very poor group it looks likely that an older horse will win the Arc. And it's hard to argue against the idea that Orfevre, a five time Group 1 winner and Japan's reigning horse of the year, is the best of the older runners. He looks the one they all have to beat in the big race now.

Runner up MEANDRE (41) is a multiple Group 1 winner that is at his best in small fields on fast ground, especially off a slow early pace. His smart turn of foot makes him hard to beat in these circumstances. Despite this Orfevre was able to come from two lengths behind him and beat him a length despite being allowed to coast for the last five or six strides.

Meandre pulled hard early as he always does and picked up well to go past third placed Joshua Tree close home. But he was never a threat to the winner who is clearly in a different league.

I'm not sure there's much point running Meandre in the Arc as he's shown repeatedly that he tends to shy away from other runners and narrow openings. Indeed he shied away from Joshua Tree here when that one came out slightly as Aventino edged off the rail to allow Orfevre through. As a result he bumped into Fiorente but this didn't seem to cost him much momentum.

The big field will make things difficult for Meandre in the Arc. The race I'd like to see him shoot for is the Breeders' Cup Turf where he'd be almost sure to encounter the small field, fast ground and slow early pace that favour him.

Third placed JOSHUA TREE (41) is a real globetrotter. He rarely runs back home in Britain but has won almost 1.4 million pounds by tackling top races in nine different countries. He wasn't suited by the sprint finish here as he's more a staying sort, so it wasn't surprising to see first Orfevre and then Meandre get by him in the closing stages. But he kept on well to get beat just a length and a half.

All season Joshua Tree has had the Canadian International as his big target. He won the race in 2010 and finished second in it last year when not getting a clear run in a big field. He should have a good chance of taking the race again which would push his earnings over the two million pound mark.

Fourth placed FIORENTE (38) is a big-bodied horse that always seems to need his first run of the year and appears to require a long homestraight to get rolling properly in the closing stages. This being so the fact that rail movements cut the length of the homestraight to 530 metres didn't suit him. Nor did the sprint finish.

Fiorente raced in second last position and took a pretty hefty bump from Meandre as that one shied away from Joshua Tree just after entering the straight. This cost him valuable momentum at a time when he was already struggling to stop the first three sprinting away from him.

To date Fiorente has run just twice on galloping tracks with long homestraights after his seasonal debut and won both times. In his latest win he beat Joshua Tree nearly three lengths into second.

Last year Fiorente looked a serious St Leger prospect before incurring an injury. His physique and the way he runs suggest that he would still benefit from a step up in distance. However any time he runs on a galloping track with a homestraight of at least three furlongs I'll be interested in his chances. His best form suggests he's capable of taking a Group 1 in favourable circumstances.


SAONOIS PROBABLY BEST OVER TEN FURLONGS

A measure of just how far the top three year olds are behind their elders this year can be gained from the sectional times for the Prix Niel. These show that Prix du Jockey Club winner SAONOIS (39) reached the five furlong from home point 0.41 of a second before Orfevre did in the Prix Foy but ended up running a final time 1.05 seconds slower. In other words Orfevre effectively gave him a head start of two and a half lengths and still beat him by six and a half lengths.

Saonois is a nippy, athletic, medium sized colt that has the build of a ten furlong specialist. He produced a good turn of foot to zip through the field and sprint away from his rivals here off a slow early pace. But I suspect he'd have trouble lasting a mile and a half in a more strongly run contest. His connections seem to share this view as they took him out of the Grand Prix de Paris and Arc over twelve furlongs and now have him in the Champion Stakes over ten furlongs.

To be fair to Saonois he may well be capable of running faster than he's shown so far. He's won pretty much every time he's met the fast surface he needs. In fact, if a short head photo against the useful Sir Jade had gone his way Saonois would now be unbeaten in seven starts on fast turf or the All Weather.

Runner up BAYRIR (38) has always looked likely to be suited by a step up to a mile and a half. However he was not well served by being dropped out to last in a race where his pacemaker set a slow gallop. He was still last with a furlong to go and then swept by everything down the die outside bar the faster finishing winner.

Bayrir's two upcoming entries are back over shorter trips in the Prix Dollar and Champion Stakes. I think he'll do better when going back up to a mile and a half.

Third placed LAST TRAIN (38) was floundering and looked hopelessly one paced for a long time after the sprint finish began. But he finally got rolling in the last furlong. He's clearly a proper mile and a half horse that would have preferred a stronger pace or softer ground.


SHARETA LACKS THE PACE TO WIN THE ARC

SHARETA (39) was very well suited by the searching early gallop in the Prix Vermeille. She was also greatly helped by tracking the leader in a clear second place and being able to kick for home while several of her rivals ran into traffic problems as they tried to find a run.

This was a solid run. But I think her connections are allowing themselves to be overcome by the enthusiasm prompted by the win when talking about going for the Arc. Her trainer said earlier that he'd probably opt for just one of the two races , with the Vermeille the most likely choice.

No filly or mare older than three has ever won the Arc without beating previously males in a Group race. Shareta has lost all three times she's faced males. Yes she ran second in last year's Arc, but she got beat five lengths after a dream run in a race run to suit her.

As her trainer has noted, Shareta is not well suited by the short homestraights and sprint finishes that typify French racing. In addition she's best on the fast ground she got here. The chances of her getting a strong pace and suitable ground plus a trouble free passage for the second year in a row in the Arc aren't great. And I just don't rate her fast enough to win the race anyway.

Third placed SOLEMIA (38) had beaten Shareta earlier this season but was one of those that encountered traffic problems in the closing stages. Her jockey manouvered her this way and that as the winner made the best of her way home and finally opted to switch to the rail. She picked up well once in the clear but was just caught by the runner up Pirika (38) who'd enjoyed a clear run and been able to build up momentum by coming with a sweeping run down the wide outside.

This isn't the first time Solemia has encountered trouble in running in a big field. So I'm not surprised to see that all her four wins have come in fields of ten or less. In fact she would have won five of the last six times she's run in fields of ten or less if two photos had gone her way. If there are ten runners or less in the Prix l'Opera she should have a good chance.

Last year's Vermeille winner GALIKOVA (37) was the chief sufferer from the crowding. She ended up being boxed in for a long way when moving well before finishing strongly once in the clear. I've suggested before that she may prefer smaller fields since her five wins to date have all been in races with eight or fewer runners. However it could be that she'll do better in future if switched to the outside for a run entering the straight.

Thanks to her late start Galikova is still a fresh horse as we approach the big international races run during the last three months of the year. I suspect she's still as good as she was last season, and that means there's a real chance she could win something big before the end of the year.

As I say Baz, I don't agree with everything he says and I don't follow his tips but his analysis is interesting. It's not everybody's cup of tea but it's there to digest and on the whole I respect his comments.

Baz, we've been banging on about Orfevre for the Arc since March on your Orfevre thread.

I know its fairly obvious, but I always try to judge a market on percentage terms.  Setting your own % chances against the odds gives you a way of checking for perceived 'value' - - there is, of course, plenty written about this already in betting guidance books and papers.
The current Arc market on here looks like this on % odds:

Orfevre - 17.0%
Danedream - 14.7%
Camelot - 11.6%
Nathaniel - 11.4%
Saonois - 8%
Shareta - 6.6%
Snow Fairy - 6.25%
Masterstroke - 5.7%
St Nicholas Abbey - 4%
Meandre - 2.6%
Frankel - 1.1%
Imperial Monarch - 2.0%  (?)
Sea Moon - 2.0%
Solemia - 0.7%
Yellow and Green - 0.6%
Reliable Man - 0.8%
Plus some others at very small percentages, which might still be worth considering if we knew they would run.

This adds up to 95%.
Any thoughts?  Danedream would have a better chance than 14.7% in my assessment, and I am sure there would be plenty who would argue that Nathaniel has a better chance than 11.4%.

ROOBUCK, study her BADEN-BADEN win last year and you will see she coped VERY well with soft to heavy going, when beating JOSHUA TREE by 13 lengths.

I'm not saying she doesn't handle the ground Bazz, it was a response to the question posed. I have no doubt her performance will be enhanced by decent ground in direcr relation to Nathaniel.

Please understand the context and stop being quite so precious about Danedream - her chance is very obvious.

it will be interesting if rain leads to soft ground on the day

btw (corrected)

I'm very pleased to see my old friend Sapphire not amongst the dec's for the Opera, whilst STILL being in the Arc - I wonder whether there's a SLIGHT chance of her making the Arc if the ground softens up?

What does everyone think the chances of Camelot showing up are ?

[i]PS - I'm STILL baffled by those withdrawals on Arc trials day that Aidan made...can anyone shed any light on that business, and also explain why there seemed to be NO coverage of it in the racing news?[/i



O'Brien has had 1 winner from 31 runners in the past 14 days and that was an evens chance at Listowel. That might just have something to do with things and also could be a factor as far as Camelot is concerned, both at Doncaster and regarding whether he turns up at Longchamp, and if does, what his chance might be.

PS

Taking account of the odds one might have expected 6 winners in that period.

The last I read ribotman is that IM is heading to Canada. Personally I cannot see that race suiting him.

I think the issue with Camelot 'the legend' has buggered up Coolmore's thinking with both horses. It should have been IM that ran in the Irish Derby and I cannot help thinking that it took an awful lot out of Camelot.

On soft ground I sense they know IM would be quite a threat to Camelot and as such are choosing IM's targets to avoid Camelot. If they are serious about IM going to Canada, then I would suggest that they are very seriously considering the Arc for Camelot to answer liam's question.

Truth be known however, I'm not sure Coolmore know what to do.

I am in no doubt that the Camelot that turned up in our Derby marks him clearly as the best 3yo at 12F  in Europe. Whether that is enough this year though is open to doubt.

HM the Derby form may well be pants, I agree. As you say though what 3yo has shown better form at 12F? Saonois may prove better I guess, but strangely at the current odds he is the only 3yo I'd place a bet on - not that I'm going to I hasten to add.

That's unless it did turn soft and IM did pitch up...

Cheers for ur thoughts lads, whilst second guessing coolmore is ill advised, i think they now have nowt to lose and a fair bit to gain by running Camelot here. I agree its a mediocre classic generation, but Camelot 4 me is the best of them and would carry my cash if pitching up.

As for the Arc, Camelot's preparation, should he run,can hardly be described as "ideal." Bottoming a horse in July in heavy ground would be bad enough, running him over a trip probably too far, certainly imo only worsens the preparation, for a race which  demands the highest level of performance that any horse will to achieve in the whole year.Those backing Camelot for the Arc, even "with a run" are going against the requirements for Arc winners and are putting their trust in AOB having him at his best, which is highly unlikely. If they want to win the Arc with him, that should be his main target for 2013, with a year's preparation to suit.

Navel g

I beg to differ. A race that is very demanding can take as much as 6 months even longer to get over. I believe that the ASrc takes a lot out of a horse and many winners are not the same horse the following year. The Grand National can take a very long time to get over. 11 weeks may not be long enough. The colt may not have the constitution for it. For sure, that Irish race followed by the St Leger is a rotten prep for the Arc.

It's quite easy for a race like The Irsh Derby to bottom a horse for the rest of the season, especially on that type of ground.  We're at the Arc every year and my best friend bumped into the lad that walked Sea The Stars round on raceday at breakfast; they were adamant that the Irish Derby was deliberately avoided because of the very same issue.  Of course it's different for every horse, but looking at those who doubled-up with The Arc in the same season is a who's who of middle-distance wonder-horses, and very short list in the last twenty-five years too.

Clearly I am guilty of being taken at my very word, for which I apologise.  When I say 'pants', I don't mean Class 6 pants....I mean Derby pants.  If anyone wants to stand up and tell me how good that Derby was I'm all ears.

On the suggestion that the Epsom Camelot is way better than the Donny Camelot, we only have two horses to look at it but the form book says:

Lengths beaten by Camelot:
Main Sequence
Epsom 5
Doncaster 4 3/4

Thought Worthy
Epsom 11
Doncaster 12 1/2

That doesn't tell me the horse was way under or over at either venue.

Has anyone gone back and had a proper look at what horses beaten by Camelot have subsequently done?  It is astonishingly bad. Quite, quite astonishingly bad.  A more rancid crop of three year olds you could not wish to find.

So, against a decent group of elders, it would be a magnificent achievement to get him over the line in the Arc.

NG - fast run 12f, Last Train, slow run Saint Baudolino, I also would expect Saonois to beat him, Pastorius and, quite possibly, Imperial Monarch.  I do rather wonder how IM's and Camelot's campaigns would have differed if you switched their sires.  Encke is also bang in the mix now and I have no idea what's happened to Real Solution but I don't believe the Italian Derby run and would also find him quite tempting, at a price, to beat the big C too.

I think it'd be a shame if Encke was targeted at the Gold Cup...he's far better than that, and I can't see him being inconvenienced by 12f at all!
He looks to have improved dramatically and is well worth his place in any international middle-distance group one.

I had reservations about the St.Leger trip for Encke (even though his dam is stoutly bred) because he's by Kingmambo who like his dam (Miesque) was an out & out miler, though he has sired performers that could go over further.

Maybe he could emulate Commanche Run and drop down to 10f...who knows?
Cumani's colt didn't look like he'd be able to do so (to my eye) and he did in spades!

PS - HM...do you have no concerns about a strongly run 12f for Saonois? I do.