PS - I couldn't resist a couple of quid on Encke for the Arc at 1000, just in case Godolphin had a re-think - he'd probably be about 11's on here so that'd be a 100/1 shot for them to do a U-turn...that's TOO big, as it's not that unlikely.

Last year's St.Leger winner Masked Marvel was supplemented after never really having the Arc on his horizon, but he ran!

Only Most Improved?

PS - I'm STILL baffled by those withdrawals on Arc trials day that Aidan made...can anyone shed any light on that business, and also explain why there seemed to be NO coverage of it in the racing news?



Coolmore not giving the slightest hint as to what's going on in the stable - no surprise there. The Racing press showing no curiosity into what's going on in their own industry - again no surprise.

Their stallions would be worth peanuts if it wasn't for the millions staked by ordinary punters. How about giving just a little back sometimes?

I was wrong on a few points but here's a quotation from a similar article:

...it is clear that his 2,000 Guineas success was much his best performance.

In the four Group One races Camelot has contested, the Racing Post Trophy, the
Guineas, and the English and Irish Derbies he has faced a total of 33 rivals.
Of those, only nine have gone on to win a race. It’s hardly an impressive
record and when you look at the quality of the races won it is clear that
Camelot is only the best of a bad bunch.

Power was beaten in the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket due to unsuitable going but
went on to hack up in the Irish equivalent. Caspar Netscher was also found
wanting at Newmarket but made amends in the Group 2 German equivalent. Also
from the Guineas Trumpet Major picked up a Group 3 at Goodwood, while Talwar is
now a Listed winner.

Camelot’s victories at Epsom and The Curragh look far less impressive. Only
Thought Worthy from Epsom and Akeed Mofeed from Ireland have come out and won.

If Camelot had run 0.4 secs faster in the St Leger he would have won the Triple Crown, the first horse to do so since Nijinsky 40 yrs earlier.He would no doubt have been lauded as being second only to Frankel in terms of relative importance in the last few years.

Now, 0.4 secs is the average reaction time for a human.It could be the difference between a gap opening and a gap closing. Its shorter than a cough lasts. Maybe a blink. So Camelot was a blink away from being a great horse, or at least considered as one.Is 0.4 secs, 2 lengths enough  to warrant such downgrading?

Now he is being knocked. The Derby he won is said to be poor. No other G1  winners coming from it (yet). Does that rally matter? He could only beat the horses in the field who actually ran.And beat them well. He won the 2000 gns before that which is fairy rare. He only just failed to win the St Leger. Come on fellas, this knocking is unreal. I don't believe tha he can win the Arc this year on the prep  that he has had but if he is kept in training and aimed at next  years Arc he surely will go close.

Ballydoyle have talked about Camelot for sometime now suggesting he is the supreme horse that they've always been looking for. That's why they gave him the name Camelot, which they had kept for the right special horse. This is the kind of plop they have shoveled out with nearly every good horse they've had over the years (Hawk Wing, George Washington, SNA, So You Think), maybe they were that cocky and thought Camelot was good enough to win the St Leger undercooked and then have him bang ready for the Arc (joking). O'Brien probably said to Coolmore and the gang  "listen, he'll come on for the run"!

Camelot is a decent colt but that's all he is IMO. The facts are the classic generation (colts) are pretty poor and even Ballydoyle couldn't gloss over that with their creative marketing drivel.

Here's a good time to bet on the Arc - if you take out all the horses priced 300+ the book is over-broke (under-round
if you prefer). There must be a lot more layers than backers today!

The best time is now surely, PETE.
Because the the JAPANESE owned horses will be odds on as the French system of lumping same ownership horses together and they could be ORFEVRE, DANEDREAM and the probable pace maker
AVENTINO, although I am NOT sure if this post is at all FACTUAL.

Looking at the weather forecast for Paris over the next 11 days, anyone hoping for a mudbath on the Sunday of the Arc doesn't look like getting it.

Nathaniel tipped up today,must be fancied to go close...

Good heads up HM ........ inappropriate name for the horse then

Is anyone on here trying to make a case for Yellow & Green for the Arc?

There has been plenty of renewed money for this filly at what I figure is a very skinny price of 50 (so someone on here's backing her) but I just can't see what all the fuss is about - just because she was rear division and finished well in the Vermeilles means nothing to me...she couldn't get into the race as I saw it, and was just running on through beaten horses.

She didn't travel exceptionally well, wasn't given an awful ride and had a clear enough passage - Shareta had them cold, even though she had the run of the race, and Yellow & Green will surely NOT be able to reverse the form - there's nothing in her previous form to suggest she'll be on the premises and it's a real leap of faith to expect anything much better from her.

It's ALL about value and I think there's NOTHING in that 50's to get TOO excited about.

Mr.D - I didn't know about her ownership but surely that's not a reason to be backing her at what I consider to be a very false price - I can't help but compare her odds to that of Reliable Man (who's far better) and ADRD stated after that disappointing race last week that he really did need the run.

I'm all over Reliable Man E/W and I figure there must be a decent chance he'll line up at Longchamp, and the main concern is that at 270, he is just TOO big on here - someone knows something!

The owners don't have that many horses from what I've gleaned, and as a French trained runner (that's not an Aga Khan seventh string) surely they would want to go for the big one with a sporting chance of the frame - I really don't think he's got a huge amount much to find to be on the premises, and those prices available are very tempting.

As he's already a massive winner for me, I think I'm being sensible in not going in AGAIN.

Whilst not being privy to ANY inside information, I think I'm using a bit of reasoning in believing that if Reliable Man does make the gig, he'll be around 60 on here, so to be available at 270 would suggest he's around a 1/4 shot to MISS the race.

Waiting to tackle Frankel a fortnight later (over an unsuitable 10f) just doesn't make sense to me, when as he's got older (in my opinion) he looks like he needs 12f, a decent pace & a bit of cut - exactly the conditions it's looking like we may be getting in the Arc, and he's a C&D winner to boot!

PS - the Cox Plate has been mooted but he's a massive price for that too (310) so it's probably off to Canada the week after the Arc, for what's beginning to looks like a class race on the turf over 12f for a change, with Sea Moon & Imperial Monarch possibles for that.

PPS - can anyone enlighten me as to what quarantine actually entails nowadays...is it 28 days?
I know the literal derivation of the word comes from 40 days, but I'm sure I once heard that for horses it's now only 28 days.

I think it's an important factor as such information (when consulting the dates of big races) would definitely rule out a trip to Australia, and enable one to be more confident of your selection going for an alternative target.

When I read a few weeks ago that Galileo's Choice is in quarantine now...WHERE is he?

evening everyone,

just a notice of all the Canadian International meeting runners.

http://www.woodbineentertainment.com/Woodbine/Horsepeople/Thoroughbred/Pages/StakesNominations.aspx

Thanks RK - just WHY are these trainers such fcukin' LIARS?

Sea Moon was supposedly foregoing the Arc for the Woodbine unless it looked like it'd be soft at Longchamp - where is there likely to be soft ground in October? Woodbine or Longchamp?

I don't know if there have been ground developments in Paris over the last few years, but not so long ago, most Arcs were run with cut in the ground (hasn't really been the case the last few years) whereas traditionally, turf racing in North America around October is invariably on a faster surface.

Incredibly, Sea Moon isn't amongst the acceptors for the Canadian International!

Mr.D - Pride Racing don't own him any more...he's running in different colours nowadays than the ones he sported when he won the French Derby.

hmmm Sea Moon, i will be sick if that wins.

cant see it winning in france, in no way can i see it beating danedream and nathanial.

It it turns up and beats them i will not be best pleased, i will personally run into the parade ring and knock stouty the fcuk out!

see if i can get rid of his lisp for him!

Navel, I like Reliable Man and he's run a couple of very good races at Ascot this year. In both races he looked like he was going to trouble the first three but he just seemed to lose momentum near the finish and that's put me off him now.

He probably will run because Pride ran in a fair few Arc's and it's a race his owners have always tried to win!

As you say the trip and ground should be ideal for him and his previous race did look like a prep run after a 2 month break. He has got plus points but I still don't think he has got the class to trouble the main contenders in this years Arc, which is hard for me to say.

I've lost faith in him at the moment but I might change my mind on the day!

I didn't no he was sold Navel, well spotted! Fair Salinia Ltd purchased him earlier this month, not sure where he will run now then.

Mr.D - I thought it was very encouraging that ADRD said he really needed that race last week, as he didn't fire at all, and I expected him to cement his place in the Arc with an easy victory.

I do get your point about him coming there looking very threatening twice at Ascot, but I believe the French trainers operate differently to ours, and don't really worry too much about the Summer stuff, leaving a bit of improvement for later in the season.

Urban Sea was soundly beaten by Placerville at Royal Ascot (with no excuses) before astonishing everyone (but my mate Manuel) in the Arc!
That's what I'm hoping for with Reliable Man, though I don't claim he's anything REALLY special...he's just a solid group one performer who'll have his conditions on the day IF he gets there!