How far was RELIABLE MAN behind DANEDREAM in last years ARC?

She wasn't the favourite a few weeks ago and very little has changed since.
To me it looks like you hope that a big priced winner will ease your lack of ability to find the winner, I stopped counting how many you have backed when I got into the teens, about 50%
have fallen by the wayside.
Camelot, remember him he was favourite.

Bazzar - you seem to enjoy getting under everyone's skin and being provocative.

My problem is that I'm very patient and tolerate imbeciles a bit too much - you're a fool & a tool
I've noticed you do this to EVERYONE, but if you keep pushing, I'll embarrass you & expose you as a mouth-piece where it comes to any aspect of knowledge within the sport!

You like to think your seniority holds some kind of rank amongst us on here but I strongly suspect you're the one who knows very little whilst getting your jollies in bullying, and being eager to throw the first stones.


I don't bother starting threads about who will win a big race, but I don't mind giving an opinion, as I did on the King George thread BEFORE Danedream won -

Here's the thread;

http://community.betfair.com/horse_antepost/go/thread/view/94098/29227699/king-george-and-danedream

I didn't recall you being so strong on the filly then...you're now just looking like a smug after-timer!



"Navel-Gazer 16 Jul 12 20:24 Joined: 12 Jul 12 | Topic/replies: 660 | Blogger: Navel-Gazer's blog

At the prices available, she's the OBVIOUS E/W selection, with no ground concerns and the best form in the field.

When I see outstanding value like this, I can't help but think 'what does everyone else know that I don't?'
She's 11/1 and I'd have her around 9/2"

NEXT POST:

"I've put a line through that St.Cloud race, as when 4yo+ horses disappoint in early season races, it's never TOO much of a concern for me, as I don't believe they're gonna be FULLY wound up in the first half of the season, when the vast majority of the primary targets are in the Autumn...some even in Winter nowadays!

It makes little sense to have an arduous race on really soft ground, unless such performers (in all reality) are group two horse trying to 'steal' a top-class prize - that's definitely NOT the case with this filly, as she's proven at the top level.
Besides...although finishing last, she ran a decent race.

Maybe she won't be at a peak just yet, and it's plausible that connections could be priming her for better ground.

Her Arc performance was THAT good, it's hard to argue that those fast conditions weren't optimal, but she still has some quality form with cut, though October must be her primary target again.

At the current odds, she's the obvious E/W bet, and if she wins, we'll all be asking ourselves why she was such a big price, especially being the top-rated in the field.

The Grand Prix de St.Cloud race was hardly a penalty kick for her, and it's worth bearing in mind how many 4yo's+ (especially fillies) are defeated by bums early season.

There's a possible bounce with Nathaniel, Sea Moon has a little to find though the improvement is likely, Dunaden is not a group one performer for me, and St Nicholas Abbey has disappointed before at Ascot (and the RH question) and is the weakest of the front ones in my view.

I'll be backing Danedream from Thursday, and I'll also have a E/W dabble with Masked Marvel, as he's a lot better than he's shown this season, and although this is a very strong race, there are a few niggling doubts for me about the field - the shortest quartet could all be worth laying in the place market, as there's some strength in depth, and only O'Briens rags would surprise if reaching the frame.

I'll take a chance on the ground at such huge odds (150 on here) as Masked Marvel's a Montjeu, and his dam's from German stock - it could be dangerous to assume this colt's gonna play a pacemaking role, and even if so, Maroof & Summoner won group ones over this track when seemingly ignored, and they were nowhere near as good as this St.Leger winner...at least BEFORE the race"

DOES THAT SHUT YOU UP AT ALL?

I like to back outsiders and I don't give a fcuk what others do - it can't happen obviously, but you wouldn't be keen on taking my bets on a race!

For anyone interested...read MY opinions BEFORE the race and compare them to Danedream's biggest fan, who instead preferred to come out with some monumental after-timing on that particular thread!
Utterly bewildering...aren't you embarrassed?


PS - I put up two outsiders to back in a race at Wolverhampton a long time ago, and one of them won at 40/1!
My next selection lost and I was a huge gobshíte to some of the retards on the main forum, so I soon realised there was very little mileage in starting threads!
That's why I can't be arsed trumpeting anything on here!

What do you expect Navel.....you are a 'tyro' after all

Anyway relax and chill have a look at this...this could be him, watch till the end

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nqtjCmDv1Eg

Navel why do you follow most people by saying EVERYONE when it is NOT a fact
but a figment of your imagination, I do not insult everybody.
A few years ago I posted an opinion that an IRISH chaser was well ridden, because the jockey had taken him the longest way round and age was encroaching, stamina was used to the best effect, HEADMASTER started it all of by REPEATING what these commentators bandy about between themselves, looking for better ground, the power of the commentator or the weakness of the listener?
I used as an example a tale out of GORDON RICHARDS biography, where he told of his first ride
as an apprentice, he took the passenger seat to the head lad and driver, during conversation the head lad thought that the horse needed an extra 2 furlongs, RICHARDS puzzled and then got a flash of inspiration, when repairing a puncture of his bicycle he noticed that, the outside of his wheel travelled further than his inner, so he deliberately rode the horse on the outside of the field and duly won.
This little caused about 30 posters to attack me , not one poster defended me , so don't you complain of a gentle criticism, especially when I say HAVE FAITH IN YOUR ABILITY and don't pan it as a knowall, give it some thought, who knows you may become a top notcher.

Shame. There were more likely winners but this year was probably her best chance.

Bazz, are you taking the pee saying Danedream has the speed and Orfevre is the grinder?! I don't know how you can say Orfevre is a grinder, the monster has an amazing turn of foot and all his winning races suggest he has a lot of speed.

We will find out a week on Sunday whether he grinds out a victory!

NAVEL, you have the advantage of me there, "a shithouse bully", brilliant.
pete the BLOKE, this is the outcome you wished for when you posted this thread, "IRONY"
is correct, because you could not stand that someone else got it right and you still cannot believe it.

I .
personally think orfevre has enough speed,he did after all win the japanese 2000 gns(1m 2f)

although his turn of foot tends to be a long one which could be expressed as a turn of grind

i love this horse,

A lot of poor info clearly. Yellow And Green runs in the Arc, perhaps it's not been reported by the Racing Boast. Galikova is also a NR. Reliable Man more likely for Canada.

Please can some what explain to me why the Arc has 2 forfeit stages on consecutive days this week? Seems a little odd. Is there any difference between them? TIA.

N-G
"Just look at how they number the race-cards
Has ANYONE got the slightest clue how they do it, because I've been baffled for years!

There seems no rhyme or reason at all, as weights, alphabetical order (even of the owner & trainer) coupled horses, draw and any other possible variables seem not to matter at all!"

The order is primarily determined by the weight the horse carries (hence, you will find 3-yr-old fillies at the bottom of the list for the Arc carrying 54.5kg).  But beyond this there seems to be no logic.  But, I suppose, it does not fundamentally matter what number the horse carries if it is off level weight with another horse, other than simply serving to confuse the observer!

The dual forfeit days has confused me too, Strontium.  But I think Navel may have a point in that it could be designed to 'encourage' supplementary entries - remember the cost of supplementing for the Arc is 100,000 Euros.  If owners and trainers can see the shape of the race upfolding then they might be more inclined to give it a go come the Thursday before the race if the numbers are not high.

The entry stages and costs for the Arc are:
9 May - 5,300 Euro
Then, in addition
2 October - 800  Euros
3 October - 3,200 Euros
4 October - 7.200 Euros
(with a penalty of 14,000 Euros if withdrawing the horse from 5 October)

Thanks, Pete.  Useful.

ITB - I've asked EVERYONE I know that follows racing, posted on here, emailed into shows and NOBODY has told me anything that I hadn't already logically surmised...maybe we need someone French on the forum who could help us out.

That's given me an idea...that Claude Charolet (I think that's his name) should know the answer, so I'll email him next time he's on TV


Pete - I'm not sure about that 22 max field...but a few years ago, 24 were allowed (Tony Bin in 1988 was a max field) but because of regular scrimmaging, I think they capped it at 20, but I'm by no means certain of that - just having a browse at the field sizes over the years, I'm very surprised to learn that not since Urban Sea (1993) have we had more than 19 (23 that day) so fcuk knows where I've conjured up this 20 business

On paris-turf.com news Nicolas Clement confirms Yellow and Green runs in this years Arc. Google translate doesn't do a great job but that's what I can make out! Pret a Gagner seems to be more informed than most of us regarding the Fenchies, maybe Pret should work for the Racing Post.

It appears the sponsor of the race wants to be represented so Yellow and Green takes her place. She looks progressive and finished with a right old rattle in the Vermeille from a bad draw and as I've posted before Nicolas Clement rates this filly highly but I'm not sure she is up to winning this years Arc. She could be one of the more intriguing runners if the ground came up Soft (EW).

Mr.D - it seems I'm alone in being unimpressed by her Vermeilles run, though as you intimate...a downpour or several seems to greatly narrow the class division, giving almost anything a squeak!

Look at the likes of Mubtaker & Leggera...bewildering!

Some people may scoff at my ploy in backing huge outsiders over the months, but we really are due a soft ground Arc...they used to happen all the time!
Not since 2003 when Dalakhani beat the aforementioned Mubtaker (HOW? )have we had one, though on a few occasions, the going has been good/soft.

Has there been some drainage work on the course over the last decade?

PS - just looking through a few of those previous Arcs...HTF did that Marienbard win?
Far superior horses in Sulamani & High Chaparral followed him home and even the brilliant Falbrav was in rear - I'm still astonished at that!

The weather forecast for Paris this week doesn't look too bad with just a couple of days getting light rain.

I was their last year and it was like being down the South of France, I was sweating like a pig in a fur coat. Odd weather for October but a great day and the ground was Good to Firm, very weird.

Your bloody right Bazz, it would have been more enjoyable as well!

I had a look on the Weather Channel website but you have to take these forecasts with a pinch of salt, they struggle to predict the next days weather never mind the next 7 days. I'm not sure what the ground is at the moment Navel but if the forecast is right it probably will be Good to Soft. I will take that for Orfevre but I would be a bit more happy with Good.

The draw will be the other big one for me later in the week and the number of runners.

I wouldn't like to predict anything regarding those two trainers, they really are a joke. The betting on Oddschecker would suggest that Sea Moon and Camelot will run but to be fair it looks like the bookies are shortening every runner apart from SNA.