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I read somewhere that horses beaten in the King George have a better record of winning the Arc than those that won it. Not sure of the exact stats.
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Rainbow Quest, Tony Bin, Carroll House & Workforce from memory over the last 35 years, so not such a crazy stat.
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Yes Naval, using just stas to pick a horse in a race is a bit daft but stats can be used with other elements to point you in a certain direction. Some races stats can be very useful other races maybe not, it's like you say trying to figure it why things have happend in the past!
At Longchamp a low draw pops up in the stats but Dalakhani turned that on it's head the year he won. Nothing is set in stone. Hurricane Run was one who didn't really pull up any trees as a 4 year old, even though he won a KG. Pride had his number that year, loved her, great turn of foot and very consistent the older she got. |
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Soz Navel, spelt ya name wrong! Bloody Android phone.
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Any at the 3 figure prices that we can get to turn up on d day iyo Headmaster? Strugglin here to find em this year
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Kieron Fallon very sweet on Orfevre! Sound judge is Kieron.
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A nice little piece of inside info from FALLON in his
WEEKENDER column, reckoned that SOUMILLON was shouting at CRASTUS to go faster in FOY. |
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Another one of the professionals who thinks the monster looked good. Fallon had a great view of Orfevre's back side so you can't argue with his comments!
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I know he looks tremendous, but on the evidence of that farcical Foy, it's bananas for the connections of the opposition to be 'intimidated' by Orfevre, as if it was Frankel they're gonna be facing - it wasn't so long ago that So You Think was supposed to be what Frankel actually IS, and although STY is a top-rank group one performer, he's not in the same class as something like Mtoto, who himself (as good as he was) is a fair bit behind the REAL greats.
Orfevre is my idea of the winner, but it's not as if he's an even money shot or he faces a simple task. There is an air of genuine brilliance about this colt, but the Foy was hardly conclusive - I rate him that highly, I suspect he could achieve a huge official rating around the mid 130's...that's just a gut feeling I have through comparison (with other greats as well as what he's beaten) and not just collateral form-lines. PS - although he's a great jockey, Fallon's hardly a good judge whose word is Gospel, as I've heard him utter some serious balls in the past. |
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BJG,
Hayda Landa has been announced a runner and is a four figure price! Will that do? ![]() Don't think Sunday's German G1 has got much to offer, unless Araldo continues his improvement....and the Tessio has no particular interest either. Godolphin said Masterstroke would be their only runner...but Encke would have his supporters if they had a rethink and Mandaen goes on Saturday in the Prince d'Orange. If he's suddenly grown and bolts up he'd be a player again, but it's wishful thinking. I thought Reliable Man was the forgotten horse of the race for a while, although the market's corrected slightly over the last few days. He runs today and needs to win, with the trainer having thoughts about Canada which is slightly concerning. In the same race, Maxios still holds some interest, but he's proving devilishly frustrating and may be better over 2000m anyway. In short, like you, I've been going up and down trying to find runners at prices....and have largely drawn a blank. Pastorius is the last one I'll mention, but his batty owners have all but ruled out an Arc supp and, as he already has the Champion Stakes entry, it would require quite a shift to cough up the euros to get him to Longchamp. |
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"Haya Landa"
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I said in an earlier post that I thought that completing the KG/)Arc double in the same year was a difficult task. That comment was based on memory, so I thought that I would look at the records going back to 1983 to see whether I was right or not.
It turns out that I am both right and wrong really. Wrong in that 18 have tried and 3 have done it, Dylan Thomas (07),Lammtarra (95) Dancing Brave (86) so that's not too bad a strike rate. Turns out that the 3 yr olds that tried won 2/7 , 4yrs 1/7 and older 0/7, broadly in line with the overall age stats for the 90 odd years. However, there were some big names that failed such as Conduit 8/1 (09),Hurricane Run 5/2 (06),Montjeu 4/5(00),Generous 9/10(91), Mtoto (88) Reference Point odds on (87)Time Charter fav (83) So, is 3/18 good or bad for horses that won the top 12f all-aged race in Britain? 5/1 against on average? I still conclude that it is a big ask, considering that these horses were near top-rated or at the front of the market. |
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older should be 0/4 not 0/7
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Is Orfevre going to need Good ground? I know he has won on Soft, but his trainers comments about changing legs a bit the day after the Foy were a bit hard to interpret.
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Aye i think il just av to stick with the normal this year! Had Novelist and Pastorious at nice prices along with Valyra
Dont think Pastorious was disgraced behind Danedream lto but obv was almost ruled out straight awayIl just av to rely on the Japanese tank at dis stage ![]() |
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any word on whether Sea Moon is going to make this gig? cheers
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They said a few days ago that Sea Moon would run in the Arc, but only if the ground was soft.
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Reliable Man turned over in France, by Maxios. Winner was ridden with a bit more punch but no excuses for the beaten fav at first glance imo.
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Recently occurred to me, usual practice with French racing,
horses running in same ownership are returned in same position, if one wins paid out on the loser as well, DANDREAM and ORFEVRE. |
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Should be DANEDREAM of course, but would part ownership
come into their rule of same ownership? |
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Headmaster - I've got to say I'm really disappointed with Reliable Man, even though I'm assuming it would have been the usual French-style crawl over an inadequate 10f.
I haven't see the race (any link online?) but has Maxios stolen it with a soft lead and a kick at a crucial stage? Did Reliable Man come out of the race with any credit? I really figured he was a very sporting outsider at huge odds and he was a big winner for me...I'm surmising now that he'll miss the big one, but the option is to tackle Frankel or Canada, where he's likely to encounter faster conditions which don't suit. Speaking of that race...I'm bewildered by this Sea Moon decision - do connections figure it'll be a mudbath at Woodbine? ![]() PS - is there any news about my other massive outsider (which seems to have missed every engagement recently) Sapphire? I'd assume now they'll miss the Arc and head to Ascot but I still have a bit of hope if there are torrential downpours. Just how do you dig out all this foreign information? Have you got the fields for the big European races at the weekend? Cologne & the 'd'Orange if you could provide a link - thanks a lot. |
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cheers miller
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NG,
The weekend Pattern races are on the RP site now. Click under cards for Saturday or Sunday and they're under worldwide stakes races. Maxios was in a good posi throughout with Reliable Man a bit further behind but RM really had little excuse as I saw it. He was produced in plenty of time to go past Maxios but couldn't do it. Peslier was easy enough on him but it has to go down as a disappointment, unless Maxios has sudenly become the horse some of us always thought he could be. He holds an entry in the Dollar though and I think they'll settle him at around that trip for now. Maybe Reliable Man needs the full 1m 4f these days and in a bog (which it rarely is) you'd still have him down as a potential Arc longshot. Today was a long way from being the ideal prep, though. I got nothing on Sapphire and find Weld incredibly hard to read - soz! |
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HM - many thanks
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I understand Sapphire is massive prices but i'm not convinced she is G1 material. I actually backed her when she was beaten by Izzi Top and she just looked outclassed there despite having her preferred soft ground.
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Sint - that was 10f and she looks very tasty over 12f with cut - that was a bog, and she still ran a great race with separating TWO group one winners.
I think there's a big prize in her she's just TOO big for the Arc, even though she has an entry. |
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PS - that was the same meeting when everyone was saying the ground was appalling for Camelot, and they were eager to overlook that.
I don't necessarily believe that a horse that likes softer conditions, will perform at its best in a quagmire, and that was truly awful ground that day. I think I've done my money on her for the Arc, but if she heads to Ascot for the Distaff on Champions' Day and there's cut in the ground, I'll be all over her, and she'll be a big price - I wasn't too disheartened by that defeat to Izzi Top, as I think she's improved this year and she's still progressing. |
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I did did say I wouldn't post again so I will keep it brief..... but isn't Sapphire being considered for Melbourne?
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Weld sent a couple I think, but Sapphire wasn't one of them.
PS - why aren't you posting again? ![]() |
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Just on this thread...a disagreement.
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Roo - I won't take a wild guess who with
![]() ![]() I'm sure I read that Weld's runners in the Cup were already in quarantine. |
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Have a stab NAVEL, I would like to know, but then you seem to have jumped to conclusions.
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talk about paranoia ![]() C'mon Baz...have a deep inhalation of some nitrous oxide ![]() |
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ROOBUCK was caught out in a lie after telling me about being on the wrong thread ffs,
he could not bring himself to own up to the lie and so stayed away, the moral is don't throw out at people then commit the same stupidity. You like to think that you are intelligent re quizzes and such, but do you also agree with a bookmaking firm printing a price for a horse in a race and that horse has NEVER been entered for said race? |
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Baz - I haven't got a clue what you're on about
![]() As for throwing stones...that's your domain - you've done it to me, calling me a 'tyro' and suggesting I knew fcuk all, and it's been unprovoked! I ain't got a problem with you or anyone else ![]() |
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So why come out with a phrase, talk about paranoia, I did not suggest who you meant in your post to roobuck but you assumed that I MEANT ME.
Now do you believe that it is right for a bookmaker to print a horse in a list and that horse was NEVER entered in the race, thereby that firm takes the stake as a non runner, ergo a loser? Simple enough question just would like your opinion. |
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It is not a trick question, it actually happened.
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No - it's bad, but we've been used to their underhand, greasy tactics for over 50 years!
What are the circumstances and why do you ask? |
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Bazzar...i notice the japanese? horse rulership (finished 2l in 2nd to orfevre in taraz kinnen last time out...was mentioned at time of a possible arc challenge,but as far as i know has not travelled to europe)..is in some bookies lists still at 33/1.
This practice been going on for years. |
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I used to regularly back ante-post years ago, but since Edredon Bleu won the Champion Chase (absolute E/W steal that season, and I think I had it at 10's or 12's) I've had ONE bet with the bookmakers, because time & time again I was getting stuffed with non-runners, and furthermore, many that actually turned up were BIGGER prices on the day!
![]() That last bet I had...Hardy Eustace at 33/1 & 40/1 the year of his first Champion Hurdle - alas...I backed him for the Stayers' Hurdle as I was 'reliably' informed that was his target ![]() That was the final straw for me, and it hurt even more in not backing him in the Champion itself at 33/1, and like Roberto Duran, I thought 'no mas' - then I discovered this place ![]() Getting a green book by primarily laying is the way for me nowadays, with several punts at massive prices that are essentially free bets. |