Key 2,000 Guineas Trends & Stats

- The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 10/1
- UK-based trainers have won just 3 of the last 10 runnings
- 60% of the last 10 runnings have gone to an Irish-based trainer
- 8 of the last 10 winners won their previous race
- All 10 recent winners finished third or better last time out
- 3 of the last 6 ran at the Curragh last time out
- 6 of the last 10 winners were having their first run of the season
- 9 of the last 10 had won in Group company before
- 4 of the last 10 had previously won a Group One race
- 7 of the last 10 winners had not won at Newmarket (Rowley Mile) before
- 4 of the last 10 had won over a mile previously
- Only 2 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings
- Aidan O’Brien has won the race in 1998, 2002, 2005, 2006 & 2008
- Kieren Fallon rode the winner in 2000, 2001, 2005 & 2006
- Godolphin last won the race in 1999
- Trainer Mahmood Al Zarooni is 10 from 34 (29%, +£42) with his 3 year-olds at the track
- In recent years Aidan O’Brien is just 2 from 36 (6%) with his 3 year-olds at Newmarket
- Seb Sanders is 5 from 25 (20%, +£58) when riding 3 year-olds at the track
- Robert Havlin is only 1 from 30 when getting the leg-up on 3 year-olds here

Mark Tompkins - wac imo.

Preview 2000 Guineas

preview the QIPCO Guineas Festival and interview Aidan O'Brien, John Oxx and other big names.

http://bit.ly/K944Je

We knew that weeks ago Stakey, keep up

Shortenin again today


Only 3 more sleeps till we are all millionaires

Course

Newmarket

Next Race

Saturday 5th May

Report Date

Wednesday 2nd May; 15:45

Going

Good to Soft

GoingStick

6.8

Weather Forecast
9.5mm of rain on Tuesday. Dry overnight.
Wednesday: Likely to stay dry 16C.
Thursday: Overnight & morning rain clearing early afternoon 6-7mm 12C.
Friday: Likely to stay dry during the day although the
possibility of an evening shower 13C.
Saturday & Sunday: Cloudy and cooler with a possible light
isolated shower 11C.

Just came across a video and report on French Fifteen at the racinguk.com website. He looks to be in fine fettle and primed for the big day. Topped up my 33-1 with some 12-1, looking forward to Saturday!

Good luck all!

Link and report below:

http://www.racinguk.com/news/article/french-fifteen-has-improved

‘French Fifteen has improved’

Nicolas Clement believes that French Fifteen has improved since his Prix Djebel victory last month and will travel to Newmarket on Friday confident of adding to Makfi's success for France in the 2,000 Guineas.

French Fifteen edged past Abtaal, a fellow French raider for Saturday’s mile race, in the Group 3 contest over seven furlongs last month.

It was the same race that Makfi took in en route to victory at 33-1 in the first British Classic of the season in 2010, the first time the race was registered as a Group 3, and Clement believes it could be a springboard to success once again on the Rowley Mile.

“The Prix Djebel was the perfect preparation for the Guineas,” the Frenchman said.  “I think French Fifteen has improved again for that race.”

Even as a Listed contest the Djebel has proved to be a rich source of high-class winners, with subsequent Group 1 victors Whipper and Stormy River both taking in the race in the past few years.

It has been the wettest April on record and Newmarket is expected to receive a further 8mm on top of the four inches that have fallen there in the past month.

French Fifteen’s win at Maisons-Laffitte was achieved on good to soft going and with his sire, Turtle Bowl, having won two races on heavy going, the vibes emanating from across the Channel are strong.

Owned by Sheikh Mohammed Bin Khalifa Al Thani, the colt had his final workout on Monday under Olivier Peslier (pictured), who was on board in the Djebel and will ride again at Newmarket on Saturday.

“We were very happy with how he went,” Clement added. “He moved nicely and seemed to recover well afterwards. The colt is a very good traveller and almost seems to prefer it and Peslier rides Newmarket very well.”

Sportinglife.com


John Oxx admits even he's in the dark over Born To Sea ahead of his run in the QIPCO 2000 Guineas at Newmarket on Saturday.

A half-brother to the brilliant Sea The Stars, the son of Invincible Spirit made a winning debut in the Listed Blenheim Stakes at the Curragh before injuring himself when second to Nephrite on his only subsequent start at Leopardstown.

Christopher Tsui's colt will be making his reappearance in this weekend's Classic but his trainer is pleased with his preparation.

"Everything has gone very well with him and he's had a trouble free run. He's enjoyed a good winter, hasn't missed any time at all since mid December and he's as fit as we can have him for his first run," he told sportinglife.com.

"It's always a toughish preparation to get a horse ready for a Classic at the beginning of May without giving them a prep race but we decided against a trial run. He's not experienced but is a pretty sharp sort of horse and doesn't seem to be very green. He's as fit as we can get him and we think he's pretty ready."

The ground at Newmarket had dried out to good to soft on Wednesday but with more rain forecast overnight, could ease further before the weekend. The trainer though thinks Born To Sea will cope.

"He's fairly adaptable ground wise, but he's a horse who's unproven and we don't know an awful lot about him yet. He's won over six furlongs so I suppose I'd have preferred fast ground rather than slow ground because he has to get the mile. We'd prefer it wasn't a real slog but will have to take whatever comes."

One thing Oxx is certain of is that Born To Sea won't follow in Sea The Stars' hoofprints by stepping up to a mile-and-a-half as the season progresses.

"We don't look on him as a stayer. You don't see many of Invincible Spirit's stock winning races at longer than a mile or ten furlongs. I don't think you've ever seen a good winner by him over a mile-and-a-half. We look on him as a miler but to start the year off we'd have preferred a mile on better ground just to make sure he had a better chance of getting the trip. Long term I don't think a mile will be a problem."

Despite that, the trainer does see some similarities between the three-year-old and his illustrious half-brother.

"He has some. He's the same colour, no white, a bay with black points. He's well grown, 16.1, he has his brother's lovely walk and athleticism and has a lot of his energy. They both needed plenty of work to keep them settled and quiet, to burn off the energy so to speak but he's a bit more like Invicinble Spirit.

"He's shorter and looks more a sprinter or miler than Sea The Stars who had great length about him. It remains to be seen how much of his ability he has."

And that will remain the case until after Saturday's race.

"We don't know how good he is. He's an idle home worker and while he does enough, he does no more than he has to. Its difficult to weigh him up - and on his form as he was injured on his second start and we didn't get any feel for him.

"We don't know what we have. We know he's a smart horse and has some of his brother's ability alright. We think he's capable of running a decent race but we don't actually know how good he is. We'll have to wait for the race to unfold to get some answers.

"It looks a good 2000 Guineas, all the best horses are there, everyone is taking Camelot on. It will be very competitive and whatever wins will be a very good horse."

Newmarket going changed to good to soft

By Bruce Jackson racingpost.com 2nd May

THE guessing game over the going description for the first Classics of the season at Newmarket this weekend continued on Wednesday, with the pendulum swinging back towards good after a drying day.

Newmarket card The official going reverted to good to soft, from soft the previous day, with a GoingStick reading of 6.8 (from 6.1) at 2pm, as the Rowley Mile course enjoyed a drying day. However a last substantial batch of rain is forecast overnight.


Newmarket's director of racing said Michael Prosser said on Wednesday: "The forecast is for overnight rain into Thursday morning but there is some uncertainty regarding timings and quantities. We are predicted to receive 6-8mm before it clears away early on Thursday afternoon."

Prosser predicted that would put the ground back to soft but if the largely dry forecast from then is right, it would "improve again ahead of the start of the meeting."

British racegoers will get their first sight of Melbourne Cup and Hong Kong Vase winner Dunaden at Newmarket on Saturday when he lines up for the Group 2 Qatar Bloodstock Jockey Club Stakes.

The globetrotting six-year-old is on a "fact-finding mission" to define his 2012 after ending last year in a blazeof glory when nosing out Red Cadeaux in the Melbourne Cup before winning the Group 1 Hong Kong Vase.

David Redvers, racing manager to owners Pearl Bloodstock, said: "It's very much the plan to run and he doesn't mind if there is a lot of rain or not and it's a good starting point for the season.

"It is going to be fascinating to see how he copes with British races - I think the strong pace will suit - and it is going to boil down to whether the international form stands up over here.

"I feel it might fall a bit short but the horse has improved over the winter and this will tell us if he has the pace for the big mile and a half races."

Dunaden has an entry in the Ascot Gold Cup and Redvers added: "If he hasn't got the pace then we can go back to the staying route."

Also set to run at Newmarket on Saturday is Nunthorpe winner Margot Did in the Pearl Bloodstock Palace House Stakes.

Trainer Michael Bell said: "We think she is better with a bit of cut in the ground and the form book suggests that as well, so we are very happy withthe condition of the track at Newmarket."

Godolphin really should be running Mandaean imo - one horse proven on soft going and will easily get the trip

Newmarket ground soft after overnight rain
By Racing Post staff 3 MAY2012

THE going at Newmarket changed overnight to soft as 25 millimetres of rain hit the course, significantly more than forecast.
Between six and seven millimetres was forecast overnight, on ground described as good to soft, but the heavy rain has eased the ground to soft for the two-day Guineas meeting which starts on Saturday.
Clerk of the course Michael Prosser said: "We had 25 millimetres overnight and the ground is soft, but the track has taken the rain well."

thx bjg

PARISH HALL, FURNER'S GREEN and the two Godolphin horses have been taken out.  PARISH HALL the only major surprise.

Did Jim Bolger sleep in?

sorry BJG , is that definetly a bad draw ?

I agree with elis, in soft I think Abtaal has got a good draw

COTC was quoted as saying the 2000gns will be run on unraced ground i seem to remember..

When SPECIOSA and SPECIAL DUTY won the 1000 Guineas (on soft and good/soft ground respectively) the high-drawn fillies had a significant advantage.  The location of the stalls may make a difference though.