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Dragon Pulse,n/r?,can be backed at same
price as Hermival(40s).! |
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I thought Dran Pulse preferred better ground Roobuck?
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Starting to have doubts that Hermival will turn up
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Dragon Pulse strong enough today
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Jessie was quoted last year as saying that DP liked the ground on the easy side of good and obviously under normal circumstances that is more likely in France than Newmarket. However much rain we get over the next fews days, because the water table is so low it won't take much for the going to dry out - personally would be surprised if was too soft on the day.
Also pleased as the rain will also suit Born to Sea - don't think he would have wanted it too quick |
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Might not be many competitive runners here- only 10 osses under 50/1 tonight.
On the FF/Abtaal debate I'm firmly in the FF camp- despite being behind Abtaal and racing up the middle as opposed to with the rail to help I thought he showed the better speed. Might be best with a little give however- the ground will be a big factor here but unlikely to be as fast as usual. Laying the fav and building a position on the other possibles like Parish, Power,TM and FF. |
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Everythin uneasy in d market today
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What is the current going at Newmarket? Must be at least Soft.
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good to soft today
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Is that all? Sweet.
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listening to t/form radio now, after speaking to obrien today, its still a close call if the fav runs,
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John Oxx targets his latest English Classic win with Born to Sea
• Irish trainer seeks to maintain 28 per cent success rate • Sea The Stars' half brother still to show full abilities Chris Cook guardian.co.uk Which trainer has maintained a 28% strike rate in Britain since 1995, despite racing his horses almost exclusively in the best races? Berate yourself severely if you named someone who is actually based in this country. The answer is John Oxx and the Irishman has a big chance of another English Classic next Saturday. Instinctively wary of media exposure, Oxx became highly visible in the summer of 2009, when he attracted widespread acclaim for his handling of Sea The Stars, the winner of six Group One races in six months. Born To Sea, second-favourite for the 2,000 Guineas, is a half-brother to that sensational colt but, thanks to the identity of his trainer, would still have to be respected if he were the son of a pit pony. "I don't have anybody putting pressure on me to run horses in England," Oxx explained week, when asked about his record here. "Unlike trainers who are based in England and probably have owners who want to see their horses at Royal Ascot or in the Guineas or the Derby, mine only go if they have business going." His average is four runners in Britain per year, yet he has two victories in the Derby to his name, and two more in the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot. Few men are better placed to benefit from the millions being poured into British racing by Investec, sponsors of the Derby, and Qipco, backers of the Champions Series. Even so, he is content with the state of prize money in Ireland and is hardly the kind of man to chase high-profile contests elsewhere just to keep his profile high. "We have opportunities here, they do most of their racing at home and, if a horse is chosen to travel, it is usually worthy of the undertaking." While he does not expect to find another horse like Sea The Stars in his stable or anyone else's, Oxx notes that Born To Sea has the potential to be much better than he has shown. "He has a degree of his brother's ability, we just don't know how much," he says. "We're still guessing about him." When Born To Sea won his debut race at The Curragh in September, the Racing Post was rather breathless in reporting that he "possesses a more potent turn of foot than his sibling did at this very early stage of his career". Such excitement seemed premature when he was then beaten at Leopardstown in October but, around 15 minutes after the race, it became clear that he was injured. "He tore a muscle at the top of his quarters," Oxx says. "It must have happened at that start of the race, he pitched on to his nose when the stalls opened. As the race developed, he seemed to be climbing, he didn't have the push from behind. He did well to run as well as he did." Born To Sea is now fully recovered, has had "a good winter" and is enjoying a trouble-free preparation. Whether he is good enough to beat the hot Guineas favourite, Camelot, is not a question the trainer dare answer directly. "In a minute and a half, we'll know." Oxx says he usually has no budget to buy yearlings at auction and must rely on the horses bred by his regular clients. This means he experiences some good years as well as others in which "you wouldn't have anything remotely near Group One standard". So far, the signs for 2012 are promising. He also has Akeed Mofeed, second-favourite for the Derby and being prepared for a trial race at Leopardstown on 13 May, despite a recent setback. Call To Battle also has the Epsom Classic as a possible target, which he may perhaps reach via the Chester Vase on 10 May. Saddler's Rock will be aimed at Royal Ascot's Gold Cup. Oxx would far rather map out plans for such talented beasts than contemplate the day when he no longer has such responsibilities. At 61, he is now fielding queries about retirement, though the question draws his heartiest laugh of the conversation. "It's not even remotely on the horizon. Most of us just have to keep working. I haven't made enough money to be stopping now." |
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Mikel Delzangles will rely on outsider Hermival as he bids to win the Qipco 2000 Guineas at Newmarket for the second time on Saturday.
The trainer saddled 33-1 shot Makfi to win the first British Classic two years ago and Hermival is available at the same odds. Makfi warmed up for his trip to Headquarters by winning the Prix Djebel at Maisons-Laffitte and Hermival was not disgraced in finishing third in the same Group Three contest at the start of this month. Delzangles also has Dragon Pulse engaged in the 2000 Guineas at this stage, a horse who lowered the colours of Dabirsim at Longchamp on his seasonal return, but he will instead head for the French equivalent. "Dragon Pulse is staying at home and going for the French Guineas, but Hermival will run at Newmarket," said Delzangles. "I was happy with his run at Maisons-Laffitte and I think he has improved a lot for that, so we are looking forward to running him. "It is too early to compare with him Makfi - it is very difficult. "But he is in good form and he won't mind if the ground is soft." |
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Opinions based on assumption ground dries out to near Good ground
Camelot - has a slightly dipped back like his dad , racing post Post winners tend want further.Not for me. Top offer - won an average maiden, could have improved a lot so difficult to dismiss him but I'm going to anyway. Born To Sea - Again another horse who has no worthwhile form but plenty of potential. Not for me Trumpet major - Impressed with his Craven win and if some of the others don't deliver on their Potential he could go close. Abtaal - Could well be suited by the straight track, well muscled, travels well and has a turn of foot. If hannagan rides I'd see it as a negative ,has looked a little bit edgy to me in his new job which horses can easily pick up on.(could lead to the horse pulling hard early). Parish hall - Scopey 2 y/o likely to improve at 3. Bolger's horse's seem to run well on the rowley mile. Must have some sort of chance. Power - Shade unlucky in the Dewhurst. Long term fancy for the race but gone off him due to lack of trustworthy information about his condition and the possiblity O'Brien could use him as a pacemaker. Foot through the Tele if this wins. French Fifteen - if the french form stands up must have a decent chance but cann't see him finishing in front of Abtaal under these conditions.( on soft he may well do) Hermival - again if the french form stands up he must have some sort of chance.Open to improvement. Backed Abtaal and Trumpet major in this ,with more on the former. If the ground ends up soft the heavy topped good actioned Abtaal could well sink in it and Trumpet major could have problems pulling his feet out of it. Good luck whatever you've backed. |
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If the going is Soft then i'd be inclined to have a saver on French Fifteen based on his form & breeding.
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dragon prince staying in france parish hall just matched at 50 looking like a small field
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ive just backed parish hall 50s, must be out
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You would have to worry about Parish Hall if the ground is soft , all his best form is on good or firmer
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If parish hall,camelot or power are pulled out for anything other than a significant injury or very soft
ground ,then it re-inforces the view that you cannot trust anything O'brien or Bolger say and betting on their horses Ante post should probably come with a public health warning. |
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JB's been pretty consistent with his view on PH's ground prefs so with soft ground a distinct possibility and Light Heavy waiting in the wings I don't think, on this occassion, he has a case to answer.
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Rain Forecast
Monday Dry 17 C About 3 mm night Then Overcast with drizzle till Friday (temp 15C) Sat 5 mm before the race but can't be too reliable as 5 days in between ![]() Ground is anyone's guess |
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HM just seen your advice regarding Hermival. Will have a look.
I paid the price for ignoring Makfi |
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id guess at good to soft or soft ground for 2000gns.
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Those connections fearing testing conditions for the Guineas meeting at Newmarket this weekend received good news from director of racing and clerk of the course Michael Prosser on Sunday.
He said on Sunday: "We've had two and a half inches of rain since the Friday after the Craven meeting, including 17mm in the last 24 hours, and there's more to come today, but Monday is going to be beautiful and though we could get another 6mm to 8mm of rain into Tuesday morning it's then due to settle down for the rest of the week. "We will be racing on fresh ground savedspecifically for the Guineas, and knowing how well the Rowley Mile drains and with grass growth so strong we could be back to good to soft by the end of Monday and then, if the forecast is correct, heading towards good ground by Saturday." |
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TIPPING POINT: It’s probably just as well Born To Sea can’t twig the familial expectation hanging around his handsome head this coming weekend in the 2,000 Guineas, writes BRIAN O'CONNOR irishtimes.ie
PONDERING GENETICS and the nature-nurture thing when it comes to sporting siblings can be a sensitive topic. It provokes a eugenic vibe, images of Lebensborn stud farms and Nazi loons breeding Breivik-inadequates for the war in the East, all blonde, blue-eyed, sexually-repressed weirdness . . . but it can be fun too. Why for instance does Lionel Messi play football like God and his brother Rodrigo plays like the chef that he is? And can you imagine what it must have been like to be Muhammad Ali’s brother and have a modicum of boxing talent? That was Rudy Clay’s lot. And it was still his lot on turning into Rahman Ali. No wonder he jacked it in. Sibling rivalry is a bugger. Cain and Abel got it on the button, that maddening combination of love and jealousy and of lives determined by different dates in the delivery room. Some biologists reckon the second-born has an automatic advantage over the first, whatever the creature. And yet most of the second-outs I know resent the hell out of their older sibling. All of which makes it hard to be definitive about such a whirling vortex of emotion. Venus Williams is a wonderful champion and lives the life of privilege that her outstanding gifts have provided. But don’t tell me deep down sometimes she doesn’t feel a pang about her younger sister Serena having the Grand Slam of major titles. Or that Phil Neville doesn’t get stabs of envy at having more talent than his mouthy brother but still getting the boot from Old Trafford. Peyton Manning may be a God-fearing blue-eyed son of the US of A but it’s hard to believe he doesn’t occasionally wonder how he ends up with the all-time reputation yet kid brother Eli gets the Super Bowl rings. Closer to home, what must the gasps of relief have been like in the Brogan household when Alan was made Footballer of the Year in 2011, just a year after Bernard got the gong? And Mrs Charlton must have given thanks to God Almighty that Jack and Bob both got World Cup winners medals. Mrs Laudrup didn’t get as lucky. When her son Brian got a European Championship medal with Denmark 20 years ago, his older brother Michael stayed on holiday, righteous in his indignation at the coach, yet presumably sore beyond belief at missing out. But they were all nurtured into football. It still beggars belief the scale of Richard Williams’ imagination in creating two tennis champions from the Compton area of Los Angeles where rackets normally didn’t come courtesy of Nike. And while it mightn’t be prudent to say so, don’t say genes don’t come into that. Mind you so does incredible determination, natural talent, and a parent pushy enough to send the Springbok scrum into retreat. In the circumstances then it’s probably just as well that Born To Sea can’t twig the familial expectation hanging around his handsome head this coming weekend when he lines up for the first Classic of the year in Newmarket’s 2,000 Guineas. Or maybe he does, and simply isn’t letting on. When it comes to Born To Sea’s gene-pool, you rule anything out at your peril. Thoroughbred breeding is a liberal nightmare, a flesh-and-blood two-fingers to the right-on. Eugenics might be controversial in humanity but its fundamentals are the basis of a 300-year attempt to ‘make’ the ultimate racehorse. It’s Born To Sea’s fate to have an older brother that might just have been the culmination of all that work. It is three years since Sea The Stars first gave a glimpse of his embryonic greatness in the 2,000 Guineas, a straight mile gallop which for over 200 years has decided who earns a place in racing’s history books. For Sea The Stars it was just a prologue. A month later he won the Derby at a mile and a half, the first in 20 years to do the double. Then came three Group One wins at a mile and a quarter and a perfect six-for-six Group One season ended with an Arc success so special it almost defied belief. In sporting terms, 2009 is currently best remembered for Ireland’s rugby Grand Slam: time will ensure it will become primarily the year of Sea The Stars. The day after that Arc, the press were allowed join the welcome home party for Sea The Stars on the Curragh. I remember telling a news colleague to take a good look at the colt fidgeting in front of us because he was the nearest either one of us would ever get to perfection. He looked at me with a newsman’s smiley indulgence for an over-excitable sports hack: a bit like a parent smiling at a wet toddler who hasn’t made the toilet quick enough. Time might have reduced the excitement but not the sentiment. Sea The Stars was trained by John Oxx, also trainer of Born To Sea, and a man congenitally unable to indulge in the hype of an industry where bullshit can impact directly on a sale price. And when he says Sea The Stars was the culmination of those 300 years’ worth of dreams then his statement brings with it a whole lot of credibility. If there was a single flaw in that horse, Oxx couldn’t find it. Physically and temperamentally there was nothing to crab: in pedigree terms he could hardly be better. Distance made no difference to Sea The Stars, neither did ground. And it was all backed up by a natural talent so wondrous the horse never even went to the bottom of the tank. Mick Kinane reckoned Sea The Stars only had to show 75 per cent of his ability. Not unreasonably the colt reckoned once he’d passed all the opposition, there was little point in bursting a gut to go clear of them. Once Sea The Star retired, so did Kinane, convinced nothing he ever threw a leg over again would even come close. And maybe nothing will. But there’s a synchronicity to Born To Sea appearing in the Guineas that’s hard to ignore. Oxx trains him. Kinane even rides him in his work. And it’s not as if it’s even that much of a genetic fluke. Born To Sea is the last foal out of Urban Ocean, good enough to win an Arc herself, but subsequently mother of a handful of other top-class horses besides Sea The Stars. They include Galileo, a dual-Derby winner and currently the world’s most valuable stallion. Now that’s a legacy to live up to. Born To Sea may never be as good as his brother, but there’s a good chance nothing to look through a bridle ever will be again. And contrary to the expectations of every wife out there, perfection is an illusory concept anyway. Excellence is the aim. And Born To Sea might just rise to that. Perfection is God’s business. |
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Urban Sea not Urban Ocean...
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Cant believe I just spent 5 minutes reading that sh1t. Tells us nothing we dont already know and some journo trying to being funny with his genetic references.
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Yep, that's just ruined the thread.
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I take your point HM . The big BF drift on Parish Hall could well have been Bolger suggesting that he wasn't going to run on soft ground and somebody over hearing it. If this theory is right and the forecast
looking favourable towards good ground then the horse has been overpriced and I've put a cover bet on the horse on BF. |
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22 left in 5 day decs, no shock withdrawels
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What are the 22 please elisjohn?
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there on the ante post list on here bazzar, and 21 for 1000g
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What's this Talwar supp all about? 30 thick ones to stick him in....
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Thanks Elis.
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Talwar been supplemented.
How much does this cost? Not got much chance on form! |
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did'nt see that post,sorry.
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Someone's got involved with Talwar at 5/2 - confidence for you
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Have to say that's the most bizarre supp in my longish memory. So bizarre, in fact, that you have to sit up and take notice!
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looked a fair prospect,first 4/5 runs,
then form tailed right off.Be surprised if this is good enough. |
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Stumping up 30K to put in a 50/1 poke appears at face value to be the act of a madman. Spill the beans, Jezza....
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