Horse Antepost
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With several smart two-year-old fillies already having appeared and Royal Ascot fast approaching, I thought I’d start off a new thread on next year’s 1000 Guineas.
For what it’s worth here’s a list of the top fillies so far this season (up to 6 June, with their Racing Post Ratings and form figures):
101 Teolane (J.Bolger) -411
98 Dozy (K.Ryan) -11
98 Miss Work Of Art (R.Fahey) -111
97 Pyman’s Theory (T.Dascombe) -3151
97 Shumoos (B.Meehan) -1
94 Princess Sinead (J.Harrington) -22
94 Vocational (M.Johnston) -122
94 Queens Revenge (T.Easterby) -14
93 Maybe (A.P.O’Brien) -1
(93) Bubbly Ballerina (A.Bailey) -231
93 Sweet Chilli (D.Barron) -314
92 Judy The Beauty (W.A.Ward) -11
92 Lily’s Angel (R.Fahey) -1113
90 Falls Of Lora (M.Al Zarooni) -21
These ratings, obviously, are just one person’s interpretation of past events, and I find it frankly absurd that Teolane (101) and Princess Sinead (94) are both rated higher than Maybe (93), who beat them so comprehensively first time out at Naas. I’m sure that Maybe has the potential to maintain her superiority over Princess Sinead and Teolane, even allowing for the fact that the latter two fillies missed the break in that Naas maiden.
The only fillies generally quoted for next year's Guineas are Maybe, Teolane and Shumoos. Maybe’s odds are in the narrow range 14/1 to 16/1 (Lads, Hills, VC, Power). Teolane is an absurdly short 8/1 with one firm (Stan J), otherwise 14/1 (Lads, VC, Power), 16/1 (Tote) and a more realistic 20/1 (Hills). Shumoos is just 14/1 (Power) and 16/1 (VC) in places, but widely available at 25/1 (Lads, Hills).
Teolane is much the most experienced of the three, having run three times, winning a 7f maiden at Leopardstown by a wide margin on her second start before comfortably following up in a Listed 6f event at Naas. She is rated 101 after three races, which is quite a low figure for a serious Guineas contender at this stage of her career. On the other hand, she has only won a maiden and a Listed race, so it would be hard to rate her any higher, and she certainly has the potential to achieve a higher rating once she contests Group races. She is on schedule to run in the Gr.3 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot later this week, where she could renew rivalry with Maybe, who beat her by nearly six lengths on debut. Teolane is quite stoutly bred, being by Teofilo (a son of Galileo who was bred to get 10-12f, like his full siblings, but whose career was cut short after a brilliant two-year-old career) out of 10f winner Masnada, who has already produced 10-12f flat performer (and 2m hurdler) Malande and 8-10½f winner Duaiseoir. She coped fine with the drop in trip to 6f in Listed company at Naas last time, having already won impressively over 7f previously, but there must be a doubt about her ability to see off smarter and speedier fillies over 6f in Group company.
Aidan O’Brien has a moderate record with his two-year-old fillies at Royal Ascot - some of his smartest fillies (Rumplestiltskin, Heart Shaped, Lillie Langtry) have been beaten in the Albany Stakes or Queen Mary Stakes in recent years - which tempers enthusiasm for Maybe’s chances in the Gr.3 Albany Stakes later this week. Even so, regardless of whether or not she takes her chance at Ascot, there is no doubt that Maybe is a smart prospect who looks sure to make her mark in Group races sooner rather than later. The Naas 6f maiden which she won so impressively last month has been contested by some smart fillies from Ballydoyle in recent years, notably Rumplestiltskin (2005), Heart Shaped (2006), Lillie Langtry (2009) and Together (2010). All four of those fillies improved by at least a stone (using RPR’s as a guide) next time out: if Maybe improves by a similar margin she will surely have more than enough to win a Group race on her next outing. A rating of 93 is exceptionally high for a juvenile filly from Ballydoyle first time out. Looking further ahead, Maybe is by Galileo, a proven sire of Group 1-winning fillies over a mile plus (Lily Of The Valley, Lush Lashes, Golden Lilac, Nightime, Allegretto, Misty For Me) in addition to a couple of 1000 Guineas runners-up (Cuis Ghaire and Together). Maybe’s dam Sumora (by Danehill) was speedy (her two wins came over 5f as a juvenile), but she seemed to stay 6f on turf (7f on the all-weather) and she’s a full sister to Fleeting Shadow (who won over 7f at two and stayed at least a mile, and was tried at up to 12f) and she’s closely related to Oaks winner Dancing Rain (by Danehill Dancer) and Captain Dancer (also by Danehill Dancer, stays 10f). The Galileo/Danehill cross has proved highly successful, his most notable offspring from Danehill mares being Frankel, Teofilo, Roderic O'Connor, Cima De Triomphe, Golden Lilac, Gile Na Greine and Cuis Ghaire. Maybe will probably get a mile, she certainly wasn't stopping at the end of 6f on debut, and with scope for considerable improvement to come she is likely to make an impact in top races later this season.
Shumoos made a spectacular start to her racing career, winning a Haydock 5f maiden by 4½ lengths from the very useful Frederick Engels (who won a decent event at Musselburgh next time by 5 lengths, RPR 103), with the rest a further 5 lengths and more behind. She was quite green and ran keenly in the early stages, but showed an electric turn of foot to surge clear in the final furlong. It was a remarkable debut performance, as her trainer Brian Meehan is not noted for first time out two-year-old winners, so she can be expected to make considerable improvement. She is rated very highly and she reportedly carries maximum stable confidence in the Gr.2 Queen Mary Stakes, for which she is already as short as 7/4 favourite, later this week. Shumoos is by Distorted Humor out of Wile Cat (by Storm Cat). The dam is an unraced sister to Cat Fighter (winner of three of her ten career starts, including the Gr.2 La Canada Stakes over 9f at Santa Anita) and Stalking Shadow (winner of four races over 7-8f), and she's also half-sister to top-class sprinter Ishiguru (by Danzig). The sire Distorted Humor (winner of several Gr.2 and Gr.3 races over 7-8f in the States) has been a successful sire in the States: his best progeny (Any Given Saturday, Commentator, Flower Alley and Funny Cide) have all been 9-10f performers, while his best known offspring in Europe are Pathfork (winner of last year's Gr.1 National Stakes over 7f) and Gaudeamus. There is every reason to think that Shumoos will eventually get a mile and at this ridiculously early stage I would say that she and Maybe are the best long-term 1000 Guineas prospects we have seen in the juvenile fillies division so far this season and I have backed them both at 33/1.
There are naturally plenty of lightly raced maiden winners (and once-raced maidens) with untapped potential, and more will appear in the coming weeks and months, but nothing has really impressed me so far apart from Maybe and Shumoos. Of the other fillies in the list above, Dozy won the Hilary Needler Trophy at Beverley last time and has been declared to run in the Queen Mary; she’s speedy (by Exceed And Excel) and doesn’t appeal as a long-term Guineas prospect. Miss Work Of Art, a daughter of first-season sire Dutch Art, is unbeaten in three starts and won the Marygate Stakes (Listed) at York last time; the owner is reportedly keen to run her in the Gr.2 Cherry Hinton Stakes, but it remains to be seen whether she is just a precocious early sprinting type or whether she can really progress. The sprint-bred filly Pyman’s Theory won the National Stakes (Listed) last time but had previously been outpointed by Miss Work Of Art at York. Princess Sinead was put in her place by Maybe (on debut in a Naas maiden) and then by Teolane (in a Listed race at Naas) and needs to make considerable improvement. Similar comments apply to Vocational, Queens Revenge, Bubbly Ballerina, Sweet Chilli and Lily’s Angel, all of whom have been beaten by Miss Work Of Art (at York) and/or Dozy (at Beverley). Judy The Beauty is highly regarded by Wesley Ward and reportedly heads for a showdown with Teolane (and possibly Maybe) in the Albany Stakes later this week: she has shown speed and the ability to quicken in her two races to date (over 4½f at Keeneland on dirt and 5f at Chantilly on turf), but it remains to be seen whether she will prove equally effective over 6f. Falls Of Lora is potentially of some interest as a long-term Guineas prospect, as she is bred to get a mile: she won her maiden at Doncaster impressively by 5 lengths and is entered in both the Albany Stakes and Chesham Stakes this week at Royal Ascot.
Well, that’s my take on the Guineas picture at this early stage. Does anyone fancy anything apart from the three fillies that currently head the antepost market?
For what it’s worth here’s a list of the top fillies so far this season (up to 6 June, with their Racing Post Ratings and form figures):
101 Teolane (J.Bolger) -411
98 Dozy (K.Ryan) -11
98 Miss Work Of Art (R.Fahey) -111
97 Pyman’s Theory (T.Dascombe) -3151
97 Shumoos (B.Meehan) -1
94 Princess Sinead (J.Harrington) -22
94 Vocational (M.Johnston) -122
94 Queens Revenge (T.Easterby) -14
93 Maybe (A.P.O’Brien) -1
(93) Bubbly Ballerina (A.Bailey) -231
93 Sweet Chilli (D.Barron) -314
92 Judy The Beauty (W.A.Ward) -11
92 Lily’s Angel (R.Fahey) -1113
90 Falls Of Lora (M.Al Zarooni) -21
These ratings, obviously, are just one person’s interpretation of past events, and I find it frankly absurd that Teolane (101) and Princess Sinead (94) are both rated higher than Maybe (93), who beat them so comprehensively first time out at Naas. I’m sure that Maybe has the potential to maintain her superiority over Princess Sinead and Teolane, even allowing for the fact that the latter two fillies missed the break in that Naas maiden.
The only fillies generally quoted for next year's Guineas are Maybe, Teolane and Shumoos. Maybe’s odds are in the narrow range 14/1 to 16/1 (Lads, Hills, VC, Power). Teolane is an absurdly short 8/1 with one firm (Stan J), otherwise 14/1 (Lads, VC, Power), 16/1 (Tote) and a more realistic 20/1 (Hills). Shumoos is just 14/1 (Power) and 16/1 (VC) in places, but widely available at 25/1 (Lads, Hills).
Teolane is much the most experienced of the three, having run three times, winning a 7f maiden at Leopardstown by a wide margin on her second start before comfortably following up in a Listed 6f event at Naas. She is rated 101 after three races, which is quite a low figure for a serious Guineas contender at this stage of her career. On the other hand, she has only won a maiden and a Listed race, so it would be hard to rate her any higher, and she certainly has the potential to achieve a higher rating once she contests Group races. She is on schedule to run in the Gr.3 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot later this week, where she could renew rivalry with Maybe, who beat her by nearly six lengths on debut. Teolane is quite stoutly bred, being by Teofilo (a son of Galileo who was bred to get 10-12f, like his full siblings, but whose career was cut short after a brilliant two-year-old career) out of 10f winner Masnada, who has already produced 10-12f flat performer (and 2m hurdler) Malande and 8-10½f winner Duaiseoir. She coped fine with the drop in trip to 6f in Listed company at Naas last time, having already won impressively over 7f previously, but there must be a doubt about her ability to see off smarter and speedier fillies over 6f in Group company.
Aidan O’Brien has a moderate record with his two-year-old fillies at Royal Ascot - some of his smartest fillies (Rumplestiltskin, Heart Shaped, Lillie Langtry) have been beaten in the Albany Stakes or Queen Mary Stakes in recent years - which tempers enthusiasm for Maybe’s chances in the Gr.3 Albany Stakes later this week. Even so, regardless of whether or not she takes her chance at Ascot, there is no doubt that Maybe is a smart prospect who looks sure to make her mark in Group races sooner rather than later. The Naas 6f maiden which she won so impressively last month has been contested by some smart fillies from Ballydoyle in recent years, notably Rumplestiltskin (2005), Heart Shaped (2006), Lillie Langtry (2009) and Together (2010). All four of those fillies improved by at least a stone (using RPR’s as a guide) next time out: if Maybe improves by a similar margin she will surely have more than enough to win a Group race on her next outing. A rating of 93 is exceptionally high for a juvenile filly from Ballydoyle first time out. Looking further ahead, Maybe is by Galileo, a proven sire of Group 1-winning fillies over a mile plus (Lily Of The Valley, Lush Lashes, Golden Lilac, Nightime, Allegretto, Misty For Me) in addition to a couple of 1000 Guineas runners-up (Cuis Ghaire and Together). Maybe’s dam Sumora (by Danehill) was speedy (her two wins came over 5f as a juvenile), but she seemed to stay 6f on turf (7f on the all-weather) and she’s a full sister to Fleeting Shadow (who won over 7f at two and stayed at least a mile, and was tried at up to 12f) and she’s closely related to Oaks winner Dancing Rain (by Danehill Dancer) and Captain Dancer (also by Danehill Dancer, stays 10f). The Galileo/Danehill cross has proved highly successful, his most notable offspring from Danehill mares being Frankel, Teofilo, Roderic O'Connor, Cima De Triomphe, Golden Lilac, Gile Na Greine and Cuis Ghaire. Maybe will probably get a mile, she certainly wasn't stopping at the end of 6f on debut, and with scope for considerable improvement to come she is likely to make an impact in top races later this season.
Shumoos made a spectacular start to her racing career, winning a Haydock 5f maiden by 4½ lengths from the very useful Frederick Engels (who won a decent event at Musselburgh next time by 5 lengths, RPR 103), with the rest a further 5 lengths and more behind. She was quite green and ran keenly in the early stages, but showed an electric turn of foot to surge clear in the final furlong. It was a remarkable debut performance, as her trainer Brian Meehan is not noted for first time out two-year-old winners, so she can be expected to make considerable improvement. She is rated very highly and she reportedly carries maximum stable confidence in the Gr.2 Queen Mary Stakes, for which she is already as short as 7/4 favourite, later this week. Shumoos is by Distorted Humor out of Wile Cat (by Storm Cat). The dam is an unraced sister to Cat Fighter (winner of three of her ten career starts, including the Gr.2 La Canada Stakes over 9f at Santa Anita) and Stalking Shadow (winner of four races over 7-8f), and she's also half-sister to top-class sprinter Ishiguru (by Danzig). The sire Distorted Humor (winner of several Gr.2 and Gr.3 races over 7-8f in the States) has been a successful sire in the States: his best progeny (Any Given Saturday, Commentator, Flower Alley and Funny Cide) have all been 9-10f performers, while his best known offspring in Europe are Pathfork (winner of last year's Gr.1 National Stakes over 7f) and Gaudeamus. There is every reason to think that Shumoos will eventually get a mile and at this ridiculously early stage I would say that she and Maybe are the best long-term 1000 Guineas prospects we have seen in the juvenile fillies division so far this season and I have backed them both at 33/1.
There are naturally plenty of lightly raced maiden winners (and once-raced maidens) with untapped potential, and more will appear in the coming weeks and months, but nothing has really impressed me so far apart from Maybe and Shumoos. Of the other fillies in the list above, Dozy won the Hilary Needler Trophy at Beverley last time and has been declared to run in the Queen Mary; she’s speedy (by Exceed And Excel) and doesn’t appeal as a long-term Guineas prospect. Miss Work Of Art, a daughter of first-season sire Dutch Art, is unbeaten in three starts and won the Marygate Stakes (Listed) at York last time; the owner is reportedly keen to run her in the Gr.2 Cherry Hinton Stakes, but it remains to be seen whether she is just a precocious early sprinting type or whether she can really progress. The sprint-bred filly Pyman’s Theory won the National Stakes (Listed) last time but had previously been outpointed by Miss Work Of Art at York. Princess Sinead was put in her place by Maybe (on debut in a Naas maiden) and then by Teolane (in a Listed race at Naas) and needs to make considerable improvement. Similar comments apply to Vocational, Queens Revenge, Bubbly Ballerina, Sweet Chilli and Lily’s Angel, all of whom have been beaten by Miss Work Of Art (at York) and/or Dozy (at Beverley). Judy The Beauty is highly regarded by Wesley Ward and reportedly heads for a showdown with Teolane (and possibly Maybe) in the Albany Stakes later this week: she has shown speed and the ability to quicken in her two races to date (over 4½f at Keeneland on dirt and 5f at Chantilly on turf), but it remains to be seen whether she will prove equally effective over 6f. Falls Of Lora is potentially of some interest as a long-term Guineas prospect, as she is bred to get a mile: she won her maiden at Doncaster impressively by 5 lengths and is entered in both the Albany Stakes and Chesham Stakes this week at Royal Ascot.
Well, that’s my take on the Guineas picture at this early stage. Does anyone fancy anything apart from the three fillies that currently head the antepost market?
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Quite liked the win of Meehan's filly, for obvious reasons, though not overly keen to get involved as yet.
Top read as always James |
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Good morning James.
In view of the shameful after-timing which last year's thread developed towards the end I hope contributors will actually post their bets when placed. To this end I have Shumoos at 25/1. While appreciating the promise of the Irish fillies I am not convinced that AOB's "first" serious runner will necessarily be his classic rep even though this theory would have ruled out HenrytheNavigator a couple of years ago. |
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I have just topped up on Shumoos at 25/1 following Frederick Engels' comfortable win in the Windsor Castle Stakes this afternoon, which further boosts Shumoos' Newbury form. She is a strong fancy for the Queen Mary tomorrow.
Aidan O'Brien's smart filly Maybe reportedly now heads for the Chesham Stakes over 7f on Saturday. It looks an easier race than the Albany Stakes on Friday. |
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Boosts it's Haydock form
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Dark Destroyer is right I would like it on record I have not backed Shumoos for the Guineas at this stage.
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LOL @ Eric
I've got a bit of Teolane but i'll not be getting my feet too wet at this early juncture. |
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Amazingly, had Shumoos dotted up then YBM/Kirk/Eric would have been on at 33s.
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I actually think that Shumoos didn't do her Guineas prospects any harm today. She got outpaced halfway and was staying on strongly in the style of a filly that already needs at least 6f. The winning time was the second fastest for the Queen Mary in the last ten years (ignoring the one that was run at York) and the form should hold up well. I have Shumoos on about 106 (several pounds ahead of Teolane, who has already run three times). The two bookmakers that were going 25/1 about her for the Guineas have cut her to 20/1, and that's probably about the right price at this stage. The Cherry Hinton is there for the taking.
Teolane will need to win the Albany Stakes on Friday to justify her current odds for the Guineas, but I feel that she may have her work cut out to get the better of Judy The Beauty, who looks a seriously classy filly with an excellent turn of foot. Maybe holds a clear favourite's chance in the Chesham Stakes on Saturday, where the main dangers appear to be Telwaar and Falls Of Lora. Cape Verdi managed to get beaten in the Chesham in 1997 but went on to win the following year's Guineas by five lengths! If Maybe makes the expected improvement from her debut run she will surely win this with plenty in hand. |
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Bit weird they're considering Maybe for the 7f race.
How is throwing her in against colts a good idea at this stage? (For all it may not be the strongest of races) |
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personally i was impressed with the watchman filly ,dont know her breeding etc but she was so outpaced in first 3 ffurlongs yesterday and reckon another half furlong she would have scooted home
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I can't believe it's this time already!!!
Falls Of Lora is the one for me at this stage. You know I follow Channon's closely and I rate Arnold Lane highly and the Godolphin runner destroyed it first time out. Show flower and Nayarra are the pick of the Channon 2yo fillies at this stage IMO and they should improve for a mile. They could be lively outsiders. |
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Fire Lily (the Wachman filly) was running on strongly in the final furlong and remains an interesting prospect over 6f+. She's sprint-bred on the dam's side of her family (the dam Beauty Is Truth was a dual Group race winner over 5f and 5½f) but Fire Lily is by the top-class miler Dansili (a good source of stamina), so it's anyone's guess how far she will stay. She's entered for the Moyglare Stud Stakes over 7f, so they must think she's likely to get 7f this year and possibly a mile next year.
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Lol I meant FOL beat Show Flower easily when she was first time up easily, Not Arnold Lane.
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My knowledge of breeding is rudimentary at best so if anyone has opinions as to how far Best Terms might stay I would be interested to read them. Is the fact that she is a very late foal (almost 4 months after Shumoos) worth considering?
p.s. Don't tell the doctor I asked that  |
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Best Terms is from a staying family: her unraced dam Sharp Terms (by Kris out of By Charter) is a half-sister to First Charter (winner of the Lonsdale Cup over two miles), Private Charter (10-12f winner, runner-up in the Italian Derby) and Anton Chekhov (9-11f winner, including the Gr.2 Prix Hocquart). The grand-dam By Charter (by Shirley Heights out of Oaks winner Time Charter) was runner-up in the Cheshire Oaks. The dam's more speedily bred siblings have stayed less well than those mentioned above: Magna Carta (by Royal Academy) won over 7f, Ridge Runner (by Indian Ridge) won over 6f, Green Charter (by Green Desert) won over 7f. Kris got plenty of staying types from stoutly bred dams, so it's likely that Sharp Terms would have stayed quite well herself. In addition to Best Terms, Sharp Terms has produced Hevelius (by Polish Precedent) (10f winner, stays 16f on the flat, winning hurdler), Sunsemperchi (by Montjeu) (10f winner) and Miss Chicane (by Refuse To Bend) (9f winner at Sandown last month).
Best Terms is by speed influence Exceed And Excel and at this stage she seems to take after her sire more than the dam's side of her family: she has shown far more speed than any of her siblings or any of her dam's siblings. She was able to go with the furious pace set by On The Dark Side and Gypsy Robin yesterday and seems to have far more speed than, for example, Shumoos (who was being pushed along at halfway). Three things put me off Best Terms as a Guineas contender: Exceed And Excel is generally a significant speed influence, he gets plenty of precocious sprinting two-year-olds, and he has yet to sire a Group 1 winner in Europe (his best offspring here to date being Excelebration); secondly, she is a very small filly and there must be doubts about her training on from two to three; thirdly, she shows loads of speed on the racecourse and I doubt whether she will get much further than 6f in top company. |
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I was quite impressed with Samitar there and at least there shouldn't be any doubts about her getting the trip. She may not be good enough but 33/1 i(Ladbrokes) is too good to miss.
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Agreed. She came from a long way back and you've got to be impressed with that performance (even allowing for the fact that some of the other runners may not have been suited by ground conditions). It's well worth having a bit of 33/1 for the Guineas.
Everything went wrong for favourite Teolane (now out to 33/1 for the Guineas), who surely needs a break now, and she's probably worth another chance later in the season. |
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Dark Destroyer is right I would like it on record I have not backed Teolane for the Guineas at this stage.
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Just to confirm then, eric, you come on here after the Queen Mary to say that you haven't backed Shumoos for the Guineas, then you come back this afternoon (after the Albany) and say that you haven't backed Teolane for the Guineas (me neither!). Just for the record, can you confirm whether or not you have backed Maybe (or anything else, for that matter) for the Guineas? Or are you going to wait until after the Chesham before answering that question?
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channons record with great 2 year old fillies not very good at getting them to 1000,
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To be fair, Channon has had his share of bad luck with his Guineas fillies: I remember Queen's Logic being a very strong fancy for the Guineas before sadly getting injured on the eve of the race; Bint Allayl was another strong fancy who got injured; more recently, Nahoodh was unlucky in running in the 2008 Guineas and Music Show was beaten by the draw in last year's race.
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whats the other , flashy wings ground went against her if i remember, sure there was another
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Dont remind me of Flashy Wings had her 33s and down for 6 figures ended up winning a grand felt like had been robbed by the deluge on the day. Frank holds her up out of the stalls just to add to her woes when she had been best when up with the pace, Ted would have done miles better tacticswise though the ground did for her. Channon cannot get them to train on anyway he has shown that amply with prospective Guineas fillies in the past, poor mans Meehan.
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Eric - have you backed Maybe?
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"Channon cannot get them to train on anyway he has shown that amply with prospective Guineas fillies in the past"
Well, Flashy Wings (whom I also had at 33s for the Guineas) trained on quite well (twice Group 1-placed at three, arguably better than anything she achieved at two). Music Show was a Group 1 winner and several times Group 1-placed at three. Lahaleeb was a Grade 1-winner and close second in the Irish Guineas at three. Nahoodh was a Group 1 winner and Group 1-placed at three. Majestic Desert was three times Group 1-placed at three. Mail The Desert was Group 1-placed at three. Admittedly, Seazun didn't progress quite so well (4th in both the English Guineas and the Irish Guineas), and there are doubtless other examples, but every trainer gets horses that fail to progress. Two of his very best fillies, Bint Allayl and Queen's Logic were both retired through injury. There are few better trainers of fillies than Mick Channon. So, eric, have you backed Maybe for the Guineas? She'll probably get beaten in the soft ground tomorrow but I'd still be interested to know if you've backed her (and, if so, what odds did you get)? |
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I was talking in the context of the 1000 Guineas re Channon getting them to train on / get them ready for the race. Some are expert others are Channon/Meehan. Injuries could be due to training error / pushing them too hard, not enough before preps or the race itself.
I have no positions in the 1000 Guineas. |
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Thank you.
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Dont mention it.
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Channon has won the Fred Darling at Newbury four times and the Nell Gwyn twice since 2002, which is an impressive record, so he can certainly get them ready. And he can certainly get them to train on (as evidenced by the list of fillies in my previous post). Most of the Guineas disappointments have been due to injury (i.e. missing the race), which is unlikely in my view to have been caused by training error, or bad luck (wrong ground, bad draw etc). I think it would be foolish to write off a Channon or Meehan-trained filly simply because they have yet to hit the target in the Guineas.
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The Guineas .. context.
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thats the other one majestic desert remember backing her at glor good i think as a 4 year old one of my biggest bets, romped home around 8/1
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Nahoodh
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I think Nahoodh won here Group 1 once she had switched stables to Mark Johnston. That said, I do think Mick has been a bit unlucky with some of his classics fillies, and I suspect if his winner yesterday, who he described as a shell of a horse, was trained by Stoute it would be 10/1 not 33/1.
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You're correct sint, I'd forgotten that Nahoodh had been sold by the time she won the Falmouth Stakes. She was certainly unlucky not to win the Guineas that year ("Held up, headway over 1f out, soon ridden, running on when not clear run inside final furlong, never able to challenge") but I was delighted with the result, having backed Natagora for the Guineas as early as the previous June (following her impressive win in the Prix la Fleche).
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My Propeller has just boosted the form of the maiden Samitar ran in on debut. She was backed from 15/8 into 11/10 and won by 17 lengths at Pontefract.
Interesting comments from Jamie Spencer after the race. He thinks My Propeller is very much a filly for the here and now. She is well set, strong and a sprinter and suggested to ''make hay while the sun shines'' giving the distinct impression she is one of those 2yos who has developed already. Samitar on the otherhand he says is very rangey and has plenty of scope. fyi. |
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Thanks sint. What an extraordinary performance. I didn't see the race, but I've looked at the full result and the race comments. It must have been a poor quality race, but even so I can't ever recall a two-year-old winning a 6f maiden by such a wide margin, and by all accounts she could have won by considerably further than 17 lengths. Her dam was a 5f sprinter so I can't see her developing into a Guineas filly, but there are plenty of tasty 5-6f prizes this season...
That Newmarket maiden won by Regal Realm has worked out exceptionally well, with the third Samitar going on to win the Albany and the fifth finishing placed in the Chesham. The winner and the runner-up from that maiden are definitely worth keeping a close eye on in future. |
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I am already on Shumoos at 25/1 atm and pleased with her run at Ascot but Regal Realm has got to be interesting for the Guineas. The form of the Newmarket maiden Regal Realm won is very hot. Albany winner Chesham 3rd and Joey Barton's horse has just scooted 17 lengths clear over 6f eased down. She would not have been the type I would have picked out to win first time out like she did. Not beaten about and impressive.
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It's very hard to predict which filly from that Newmarket maiden will turn out to be the best. It's unlikely that the first three home (Regal Realm, Gamilati and Samitar) will all turn out to be top class. Samitar made considerable improvement to win the Albany (she improved by 26lbs from her debut according to Racing Post handicapper Simon Turner) and she sets a high standard for the others to aim at. My Propeller has clearly improved enormously from her debut and could well reverse placings with the fillies that finished ahead of her at Newmarket.
Regal Realm's dam Regal Riband and grand-dam Regal Rose (winner of the Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes) both won as two-year-olds but neither raced again after their juvenile season. Regal Riband only ran three times (all over 7f on the all-weather as a juvenile), winning once, but was bred to get at least a mile, so I would expect Regal Realm (by Medicean) to get at least a mile in time. Gamilati is also an interesting a prospect, being by Bernardini (sire of Theyskens' Theory) out of Illustrious Miss (placed in the Irish Guineas), and she too should get a mile. Both fillies merit respect next time out, but neither has done enough yet to interest me as far as the Guineas is concerned. |
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Is My Propeller related to Aeroplane by any chance ? They were/are both trained by Peter Chapple-Hyam and were similarly impressive 2yo winners ..
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