There was an inevitable shake-up in the fillies’ rankings following the first juvenile Group races of the season at Royal Ascot.  These are the current Racing Post Ratings for the leading fillies:

105    Samitar (M.Channon)            -31
103    Inetrobil (K.Ryan)            -12
(101)    Teolane (J.Bolger)            -4110
100    Best Terms (R.Hannon)            -111
100    Shumoos (B.Meehan)            -12
99    Maybe (A.P.O’Brien)            -11
99    My Propeller (P.Chapple-Hyam)    -71
99    Caledonia Lady (P.Murphy)        -53
98    Illaunglass (J.Noseda)            -13
(98)    Dozy (K.Ryan)                -110
98    Miss Work Of Art (R.Fahey)        -111
(97)    Pyman’s Theory (T.Dascombe)        -31519
96    Switcher (T.Dascombe)            -14

The filly that made the biggest impression was Maybe, who produced a classy performance in the Chesham Stakes to maintain her unbeaten record, showing plenty of speed (and stamina in the soft ground) to win very comfortably from some unexposed rivals.  Her revised Guineas odds (top price 8/1) don’t look over-generous based on what she has actually achieved, but I suspect that she is capable of a considerably higher rating and will surely take plenty of beating in all the top 7-8f races.  She is reportedly being aimed at the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes and if she takes in another race beforehand it will doubtless be the Gr.2 Debutante Stakes.

By shopping around you can get 8/1 Maybe, 25/1 Shumoos and 33/1 bar for the Guineas.  Shumoos is surely open to improvement when upped in trip to 6f, whereas Best Terms, who so narrowly beat her in the Queen Mary, is an altogether smaller and speedier filly who may struggle to confirm the form over longer trips.  In my opinion, the Queen Mary principals (Best Terms, Shumoos and Caledonia Lady) have been under-rated: I would personally put them on 106, 106 and 105 respectively, as I don’t see any particular reason for not using the eighth Vocational (previously rated 94) as a reliable yardstick.  Either way, there is not a lot to choose between the leading 5-6f fillies.

Samitar made up a lot of ground in the last furlong and a half in the Albany and won comfortably in the end.  The placed fillies were all previously unbeaten and the winning time was respectable.  Samitar is clearly a smart filly and she is fair value for the Guineas at 33/1 (compared with last year’s Albany winner Memory, who was as short as 14/1 for the Guineas at this stage last year).  The worry for antepost backers is that her half-sister Nijoom Dubai (who also won the Albany for Channon) failed to progress (she finished unplaced in six subsequent starts) and her sire Rock Of Gibraltar has yet to produce a really top-class filly in Europe.  The Albany runner-up Inetrobil shapes like a sprinter, as you’d expect from her breeding (by Bertolini).  The Albany favourite Teolane ran no sort of race and probably needs a break.

Peter Chapple-Hyam’s filly My Propeller (no relation to Aeroplane!) put up an extraordinary performance at Pontefract to win a 6f maiden by the incredible margin of 17 lengths, winning so easily that she could have increased the winning margin by several more lengths.  Her jockey couldn’t believe how fast she was going at halfway and although it was almost certainly a poor quality race she is clearly a very speedy filly and one to follow in all the top 5-6f races.  She’s speedily bred (she’s a half-sister to 6f sprinter Bandstand and her dam was a 5f sprinter, related to useful 5-7f performer Twilight Blues) and unlikely to get a mile, so doesn’t appeal for the Guineas at this stage.

I have backed three fillies for next year’s Guineas, all at 33/1: Maybe, Shumoos and Samitar.  Maybe could provide a good trading opportunity at some point.

Great thread, I had £25 eachway on Shumoos @ 25/1 before Ascot, since taken 14's and 10's on Maybe to win the 1000 Guineas. Maybe has realy impressed on both starts, beating good opposition on different grounds.

*tho
*Buick reporting that SHE gave HIM

Think it's time for bed ;)

Last Propeller has been matched on here today at 13.5!!!!  Most bookmakers aren't even quoting her for the Guineas (unsurpisingly, in view of Jamie Spencer's remark that 6f is as far as the filly wants), but even Stan James are quoting her at 25/1!!!  How can people be so stupid as to back her at half the odds available with bookmakers?  I'll gladly lay her at any price up to about 25/1.

The top price for Questing is 20/1 - thats outrageous.

Nice form boost for Samitar then.

John Gosden's filly Questing has already been noted in this thread as a potential Guineas filly.  This daughter of first-season sire Hard Spun won a 7f fillies maiden at Newbury (21 June) easily by 3½ lengths, with so much in hand that jockey William Buick had trouble pulling her up after the line.  On breeding you'd have to think that she will get at least a mile and that she will do well from two to three.  Straight after that debut win Questing was quite widely available at 25/1 for the Guineas, which seemed a fair price allowing for the fact that she beat a bunch of mostly unraced fillies in an ordinary winning time.  But it was the manner of victory that took the eye and the fact that she did it first time out at a top track for a trainer whose fillies tend to progress well with age and racing.  In fact, it's worth taking a look at a complete list of Gosden-trained juvenile fillies that won first time out, by a margin of at least two lengths, in a proper maiden race (excluding auction maiden races) over 6-7f in the last few years:

2000: Crystal Music (21 July, Newmarket 7f maiden: started slowly, led over 2f out, ran on well, by 5 lengths, RPR 96)
2005: Nannina (19 June, Pontefract 6f maiden: strong run to lead well inside final furlong, readily by 3 lengths, RPR 79)
2007: Sense Of Joy (4 August, Newmarket 7f maiden: led over 1f out, ridden clear final furlong, by 5 lengths, RPR 101)
2008: Rainbow View (18 July, Newmarket 7f maiden: led over 1f out, shekn up, ran on strongly, by 6 lengths, RPR 90)

That's a complete list covering the last 11 years, with nothing left out.  Just four fillies and they all turned out to be smart (or potentially smart).  Crystal Music was unbeaten at two, winning the Gr.1 Fillies' Mile on her final juvenile start (RPR 111); she was sent off a 5/1 chance in the 1000 Guineas (finished 4th) and was twice Group 1-placed at three (runner-up in both the Irish Guineas, RPR 115, and the Coronation Stakes).  Nannina progressed well as a two-year-old, winning the Gr.3 Prestige Stakes and Gr.1 Fillies' Mile (RPR 114) in her final two starts; she started at 7/1 in the 1000 Guineas (finished unplaced on soft ground), later won the Gr.1 Coronation Stakes (RPR 118) and was several times Group 1-placed (runner-up in the Falmouth, third in the Nassau, runner-up in the Sun Chariot), and at four won the Gr.2 Windsor Forest Stakes (by three lengths).  Sense Of Joy was a comfortable winner of the Gr.3 Prestige Stakes on her only subsequent two-year-old start (she met with a setback and missed her intended engagement in the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac); she was a leading contender for the 1000 Guineas (as low as 8/1 in April) but sustained an injury and never raced again.  Rainbow View went through her juvenile campaign undefeated, winning the Gr.1 Fillies' Mile on her final start (RPR 117); she started odds-on favourite for the 1000 Guineas but could only finish 5th (on very fast ground) and never quite scaled the heights thereafter, though she ran creditably in Group 1 company (fourth in the Oaks, third in the Coronation Stakes, close fourth in the Falmouth, runner-up in the Nassau) before eventually winning the Gr.1 Matron Stakes (RPR 116) and moving to America.

Questing has a lot to live up to if she is to be bracketed in the same company as those four fillies, but she is in the right hands and her debut performance reads well: "Tracked leaders, went 2nd 4f out, pushed ahead over 1f out, soon quickened, readily came clear 1f out and in no danger final furlong, very easily, by 3½ lengths" (RPR 88).  The third Ballyea (beaten nearly six lengths) has come out and won a Newbury maiden, so the form looks solid.  I would expect to see Questing next in either the Gr.3 Sweet Solera Stakes or the Gr.3 Prestige Stakes before moving up to Gr.2 or Gr.1 company.  She is an exciting prospect and was well worth a few quid for the Guineas at 25/1.

Come on, don't be silly.  No one can predict at this stage who is going to win the Guineas.  I have picked out four fillies that have really excited me as possible Guineas fillies: Maybe, Shumoos, Samitar and Questing.  I have backed all four with total stakes of around £3,500.  I'm certainly not going to try to predict at the beginning of July which one will turn out to be the best!  Good luck to anyone who's prepared to stick their neck out and pinpoint the Guineas winner at this stage.

Btw Eric, is there anything that has caught your fancy yet ? Anything that you have speculatively, or strongly,perhaps, backed for next years 1000 Guineas ?

The Cherry Hinton (Gr.2) has produced three winners of the 1000 Guineas in the last 20 years or so: Sayyedati (1993), Harayir (1995) and Attraction (2004), as well as a number of other fillies who have been well fancied for the Guineas such as Kerrera (runner-up in the Guineas in 1989), Chimes Of Freedom (leading fancy over the winter for the 1990 Guineas), Musicale (favourite for the 1992 Guineas), Dazzle (third in the 1997 Guineas), Wannabe Grand (runner-up in the 1999 Guineas), Sander Camillo (leading fancy over winter for the 2007 Guineas) and Memory (a 6/1 shot in this year's Guineas).  Favourites have an excellent record in the race - there have been 12 winning favourites in the last 23 years, with an average winning SP of around 9/2.  16 of the last 23 winners of the race were last-time-out winners, six had been beaten last-time-out at Ascot and one had been beaten at Beverley (in the Hilary Needler Trophy); of the six that had been beaten at Ascot, four had finished second.

Only five of the last 23 winners started at bigger than 7/1 (all in the range 11/1-14/1), so it's best to focus on the front five in the betting: Shumoos, My Propeller, Inetrobil, Russelliana and Miss Work Of Art.  In terms of the Guineas, it's hard to believe that the very speedy My Propeller (whose dam was a 5f sprinter) will stay a mile, and there must also be stamina doubts about Inetrobil (who's by the speed influence Bertolini) and Miss Work Of Art (who's raced exclusively over 5f so far).  Shumoos looks sure to be suited by the step up to 6f and is virtually an unpenalised Group 2 winner, having been beaten a short head in the Queen Mary last time, but she had a hardish race there and she probably wouldn't want yielding ground.  The dark horse is undoubtedly Russelliana simply on account of the fact that she is trained by Sir Michael Stoute, who hasn't had a runner in the Cherry Hinton since 2000 but who has an excellent record in the race: in the last 23 years his six runners have been Kerrera (who won easily in 1988 and was later runner-up in the Guineas), Mystic Goddess (who was beaten ½l by Sayyedati in 1992), Red Carnival (who narrowly won in 1994, beating subsequent Guineas winner Harayir), Dance Sequence (who was beaten a length in 1995 and went on to win the Lowther and was a 12/1 chance in the Guineas), Dazzle (who won easily in 1996 and was a short price for the Guineas before coming unstuck at odds of 4/9 in the Cheveley Park) and Enthused (who was beaten ½l in 2000, went on to win the Princess Margaret and Lowther, and was a 6/1 chance in the Guineas).  In other words, all of Stoute's runners in the Cherry Hinton (in the last 23 years) have either won or been placed (beaten no more than a length), and most turned out to be smart types (four of them ran in the Guineas, another was aimed at the Guineas, the other one produced the top sire Medicean!).

It looks a very competitive renewal of the Cherry Hinton and one which could well have an impact on the Guineas market, especially if there is a clear-cut win for either Shumoos or Russelliana.

however at this stage not great as we havent seen what France has to offer.

Gamilati my only bet 20s.

In terms of ratings, I would use Illaunglass (RPR 98 on her Albany run) as the best marker, with Inetrobil running a bit below her Albany form today.  This gives the winner Gamilati a rating of 109, with Russelliana 105, Shumoos 104, Inetrobil 102, Sajwah 100, Illaunglass 98.  This leaves the winner well below the two recent spectacular winners of the Cherry Hinton - Attraction (117) and Sander Camillo (116) - and just below last year's winner Memory (111), but ahead of Misheer (108), Jewel In The Sand (105), You'resothrilling (103), Spinola (103), Donna Blini (100) etc.

Since when did you become an expert, Eric ?

As always, your looking to stir up trouble,evidenced by you immediate posts after the Cherry Hinton today mocking somebody elses bets. What have they got to do with you,exactly ?

We still haven't forgot you Guineas and epic Derby bets either where you somehow contrived to back 11 different horses and still came out with a bloodied nose.

I dont think we have seen the Guineas winner yet. Nothing has knocked me out so far and there seems to be half a dozen 6f fillies capable of beating each other on any given day. The form of the Chesham was also knocked this evening at Newbury so as yet I am sitting this one out.

I made the mistake of being logged out when reading the thread and caught your stupid comments as you are blocked by me. Back to reading sane comments now logged in again.

Thoroughly impossible for you to have made a profit on the Derby.

By the time you ''moved Pour Moi second in your book'' the top price available was 9/2. Your post came immediately after Andre Fabre gave his interview. Before then you had stated several times on here your book was built around Frankel, then World Domination, and then after the Dante you were all in on Carlton House.

As I said, given the odds available, it was impossible for a profit to have been made, which make your comments about somebody elses ante-post book even more odious. At least Jamesp has a proven track record of getting things correct.

Get Shane Kelly back on Shumoos is all I can say. Why oh why Martin did you not cover her up. She is not a filly that needs to be up with the pace.

James. from memory, Sleepytime and Lahan didnt appear until September so there is still plenty of time for a Guineas filly to appear on the scene although admittedly that is a rarity for them to be that late

The entries are out for the Prix Robert Papin (Gr.2) on 24 July.  There is the usual strong British contingent.

Colts: Bannock (Johnston), Burwaaz (E.Dunlop), Bear Behind (Dascombe), Family One (Barberot), Signifer (Channon), Stonefield Flyer (Dalgleish), Frederick Engels (Brown), Bapak Chinta (Ryan), Roman Soldier (Noseda), Salure (Grizzetti), Dabirsim (Ferland), Mac Row (Rouget), Boomerang Bob (J.Hills)

Fillies: Ruby's Day (O'Neill), Best Terms (Hannon), Mossa (Bidgood), Sylvan Song (Fabre), Ponte Vespucci (De Nicolay), Louve Rouge (Boutin), Shumoos (Meehan), Angels Will Fall (B.Hills), Betty Fontaine (Channon), Kapitala (Lowe), Hidden Passion (Meehan), Luv U Forever (Hughes)

Frederick Engels (winner of the July Stakes), Family One (winner of the Prix du Bois) and Bapak Chinta (winner of the Norfolk Stakes) are the obvious form picks.  Of the fillies, Best Terms and Shumoos are obviously of interest, but I understand that Hidden Passion is a more likely runner than Shumoos for trainer Brian Meehan.  Angels Will Fall, who missed the Queen Mary, won nicely on debut but is sprint-bred and therefore of no interest as far as the Guineas is concerned.  Sylvan Song is unbeaten in two starts for Andre Fabre and is a useful sort, but this represents a big step up in class.  It will be interesting to see how Best Terms performs next time, but this looks booked for one of the colts.