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1000 Guineas (2012)
1000 Guineas (2012)
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2012 winner just won on debut at HQ
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Desert Gazelle is a general 16/1 chance following that impressive winning debut at Newmarket (in what is traditionally a strong maiden race), but a massive 33/1 with Corals. That price won't last long.
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The big question, of course, is: which is the best Godolphin filly this year? Gamilati was a comfortable winner of the Cherry Hinton (Gr.2) yesterday, but she had previously been beaten by her stable companion Discourse, and now Desert Gazelle has made an impressive debut. There are doubtless other potentially smart fillies to come from the Bin Suroor and Al Zarooni yards. I certainly wouldn't assume that Gamilati will necessarily turn out to be the best.
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Was she really that impressive ? The third horse home trained by Stoute wasn't even put in the race imo and according to all the people in the paddock Desert Gazelle looked as fit as a flea ..
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She travelled like a class filly and then produced an excellent turn of foot to win easily. I thought she was impressive. The Stoute filly was right on the heels of the winner at halfway and had every chance but was soon being ridden along and simply wasn't fast enough. I noted the comments that the winner looked very fit, so maybe there won't be a huge amount of improvement, but she looks like she'll appreciate a step up to 7f and eventually a mile. The proximity in second of Cheworee tempers enthusiasm, as that one had been beaten nearly 8 lengths by Discourse and Gamilati on debut, but visually Desert Gazelle was impressive and she looks a class act.
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I thought she was mega impressive but they crawled for the first three furlongs and sprinted so as a Guineas trial it meant nothing. Not a maiden that has thrown up the winner in the last 25 years either (although Gossamer took this I think ?? ).
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I was impressed and have added her at 33/1 to Samitar and Shumoos.
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jamesp have you also added Desert Gazelle to your book?
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Yes certainly (at 33/1). Have you?
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50/1for past winners means nothing it depends on how many darts you threw. I asked you to break down your book when you were pushing the superior rating of Helleborine over horses x, y and z but you ignored the request.
If you took the 4 horses at 33s and Gamilati 20s for equal profit you have 5/1 against the field. If you also took Desert Gazelle at 33s for equal profit you will have around 4.14/1 against the field. Puts your 50/1 quotes on past winners in perspective. Now you would be winning the same as someone taking 4/1 the winner on the day next may if she is in these 6. If you take another 33/1 shot between now and next May you will have 7/2 against the field, another 33/1 shot you have just under 3/1, another four 33/1 shots and you have around 13/8. As I say a single price might sound impressive but when placed in the context of a book above it isnt. You wouldnt be getting 33s from now on either the figures would in reality be much worse with not 33s but you having to take 14s or less after impressive trials. Dont kid me, I've been doing this for years. sintonian probably came bottom of the class in maths judging by his stupid posts. |
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By the way, I backed Special Duty at 8/1 my only bet in the race which is better than a book full of 50s shots giving you 2/1 on the day to your total stakes including covering outsiders. Good luck nonetheless I am ok discussing realities hope you dont mind
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I'm well aware of the maths, I've been doing this for over 20 years. My approach is to take a position about a small number of horses (typically three or four) that I particularly fancy for the race and then build a book around the others. By the time of the race I aim to break even whatever the result and make a handsome profit if any of my main fancies wins. When it pays off, as with Finsceal Beo in 2007 (£17K profit), Natagora in 2008 (£7K profit) and Special Duty in 2010 (£12K profit) it pays off very nicely, even though the actual odds 'against the field' end up being very short. So far this season I have just put in the 'foundations', as it were, for the Guineas - there are plenty of key trial races still to come and I'm happy with my position thus far. The better fillies have appeared earlier than normal this year - they appear to be much more forward due to the fine warm weather we had in the first part of the season. I don't have an indiscriminate approach: if I think that a particular horse is poor value or is very unlikely to stay a mile, I won't back it. In each case it has to be the right horse at the right price. The key lies, of course, in spotting the right horses.
So far this season Shumoos, Maybe, Questing and Desert Gazelle all made highly impressive winning debuts. Shumoos has so far failed to make the anticipated progress and she will need to learn to settle better in her races if she is to develop into a Guineas filly. Samitar and Gamilati have already won Group races and are going the right way. Maybe won a poorish renewal of the Chesham but remains unbeaten and should continue to progress (mind you, her Guineas odds of 7/1 are a joke!). I'm sure that Questing and Desert Gazelle will make their mark in pattern company before long. |
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I've been doing it for 30 years and believe taking so many so early the 1000 does not leave you with much slack in your book with all the major trials to come and you are down to 4/1 already.
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Depression.
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Eric.
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backed 6 already? gulp.
you not backing Discourse jamesp? |
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re Desert Gazelle ... having reviewed the race again she looked to be unsuited by the slow pace given then way she finished, so deserves more credit than I originally thought. I expect she will be just as impressive next time out when she has a stong pace, and perhaps a furlong further too.
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As I said before, I get the impression that the better two-year-old fillies have appeared earlier than normal this season. Either that, or my judgement has become impaired. These are the fillies I had backed for the Guineas by the corresponding stage of the season (i.e. by the end of the July Meeting) in recent years:
2005 (for the 2006 Guineas): none 2006 (for the 2007 Guineas): Sander Camillo (25/1, 20/1, 10/1) 2007 (for the 2008 Guineas): Natagora (501, 40/1), Listen (25/1), You'resothrilling (25/1), Nijoom Dubai (33/1), Laureldean Gale (20/1) 2008 (for the 2009 Guineas): Cuis Ghaire (33/1), Fantasia (33/1) 2009 (for the 2010 Guineas): Lillie Langtry (25/1), Habaayib (25/1), Misheer (20/1), Don't Tell Mary (50/1) 2010 (for the 2011 Guineas): none In retrospect, I did go in too soon (or had a lapse of judgement) on a few occasions (Nijoom Dubai, Habaayib, Misheer and Don't Tell Mary), but the others were all sensible bets (in my opinion). This year, I'm surprised that we have seen so many classy fillies by this stage of the season. The jury is still out, but I'll be surprised if I haven't got the winners of several upcoming pattern races. re: Discourse. It's too early to back her for the Guineas, in my opinion. The Godolphin team are convinced that Gamilati was not seen to best effect in that maiden race won by Discourse. Her next race will tell us more. |
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fully agree with you James re Discourse. Gamilati did too much that day and got lonely out in front. I would be confident of her reversing the placings ridden with more restraint next time should they meet again.
But I think Russelliana is the one to take out of the Cherry Hinton. She was the least experienced in the field and having been initially pushed along to hold her position, she flew in the final furlong and was only beaten by a more street wise filly who had the rail ( and possibly faster ground) to race on. She was been well backed on both her starts and is obviously held in some regard. Incidentally, does anyone know if there is a supplementary entry stage for the Lowther at York as Godolphin haven't entered any of their top guns ?? |
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Not so sure, Discourse was green and has a lot of strenghtening to do and done really well to win. They both quickened impressively.
Also I read a comment hinting that Discourse was going for the Cherry Hinton until she was coughing so they ran Gamilati. |
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Gamilati took a huge leap forward in the Cherry Hinton and one can't be sure that Discourse would necessarily make quite such dramatic improvement, but the fact is that no one knows for sure. I'm not interested in backing Discourse at this stage, but I accept that she might turn out to be as smart as Gamilati. re: Lowther entries, yes there is a supplementary entry stage (or at least there always used to be). The Lowther looks to be between Shumoos, Russelliana, Samitar, Best Terms and whatever Godolphin decide to supplement (Gamilati, Desert Gazelle or Discourse).
The Irish fillies haven't made much of an impression so far, with the notable exception of the Chesham winner Maybe. She will take all the beating in the Gr.3 Silver Flash Stakes next Thursday (the only dangers appearing to be Fire Lily and Switcher) and the Gr.2 Debutante Stakes (7 August) is there for the taking. She'll be an odds-on chance if taking up her Silver Flash entry next week and the only one that might give her a race in the Debutante Stakes is Samitar. |
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I think its too early to be presuming that Gamilati is better than Discourse . Al Zarooni effectively said as much. Discourse missed the Cherry Hinton because she had been coughing otherwise she would have lined up. I think the next destination for her is a listed race at Ascot so it might be worth taking a price now as it will only be going southward once she wins that.
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Well, Gamilati has certainly achieved a lot more on the racecourse - however you look at it, her Cherry Hinton win was far in advance of what she had achieved previously and therefore far in advance of what Discourse achieved in beating her narrowly in a maiden. Discourse has obviously shown a lot of promise but she needs to take a big leap forward to match what Gamilati achieved in the Cherry Hinton. She may well be capable of producing that big leap forward, but we don't know at this stage. As for her next target, the trainer's comments were a bit ambiguous: "Discourse will have a different target to Gamilati and so they won’t meet again. She was coughing, which is why we haven’t run her again. We will find her a Listed race and, if she does well, then we will go to Ascot." The reference to Ascot may be a reference to the Fillies' Mile at the end of the season rather than to her next race. If he meant that she may have her next race at Ascot, then he could have been referring to the Winkfield Stakes (Listed) over 7f later this month or to the Princess Margaret Stakes (Gr.3) over 6f, more likely the former option, as they seem to be intending to go up in trip to 7f and then a mile, while Gamilati will probably stick to 6f this season, with the Cheveley Park Stakes (Gr.1) her end-of-season target.
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Hi James,
What did you think to Lady's First performance at York last Saturday? I was there and had backed her and thought she had no chance and was running green, but the way she picked up in the final furlong was impressive. |
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Hi Michrich. Lady's First (by first season sire Dutch Art) looks a nice prospect and she won in very good style at York despite showing greenness. Her next race should tell us a lot more, but the form of the York race doesn't look anything special and it remains to be seen whether she's a really smart filly in the making.
Of greater interest to me at this stage is Freddie Head's filly Lombatina, who won the opener at Chantilly this afternoon impressively by 6 lengths. Olivier Peslier soon had her bowling along in front, showing plenty of speed and she was still travelling smoothly about 1½f out when Peslier asked her to quicken and she soon put several lengths between herself and her toiling rivals. It was just a 6f maiden for unraced fillies, so we've no idea what the form is worth, but it was a very eye-catching debut for a filly who is bred to get much further. She's by King's Best out of a mare called Sahel (by Monsun) who won over 11½f in France. Sahel is a full sister to Samum (dual Group 1 winner over 12f), Schiaparelli (multiple Group 1 winner over 12f) and Salve Regina (Group 1 winner over 11f and four times Group 1 runner-up over 12f). It's exciting that such a stoutly-bred filly has shown so much speed first time as a two-year-old and she might just turn out to be very smart. For anyone who's interested she's a general 33/1 shot for the Guineas. Her next two races will tell us a lot more. |
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Lombatina's winning time (1:11.72) was much faster than the colts' equivalent race (1:13.14) half an hour later. The maiden she won (the Prix dela Verrerie) has been won by a mixed bag of fillies in recent years, but they have included Porlezza, who went on to be a smart sprinter (winner of the Gr.1 Prix Maurice de Gheest) and Much Faster, who went on to win the Gr.2 Prix Robert Papin and was runner-up in the Gr.1 Prix Morny. Last year's runner-up Espirita went on to win the Gr.3 Prix des Reservoirs. Freddie Head has used Chantilly for the racecourse debuts of several smart sorts in the past, most notably Marchand D'Or and Goldikova.
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Who is the 33s available with James?
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33s with Coral, Hills, VC, but she has probably not been formally added to their antepost lists, so you'll need to phone during office hours when the odds compilers are at their desks. 25s with Lads.
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thanks
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I'm glad to see that John Gosden has not entered his exciting prospect Questing in the Star Stakes (Listed) at Sandown next week. Gosden instead relies on Elusive Kate (Kempton maiden winner) or Hawfinch (staying on fifth in the Empress Stakes last time), either of which will give him a better idea of where he stands with Questing, who is now surely likely to head straight for a Group 3 race such as the Sweet Solera Stakes or the Prestige Stakes.
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Have you taken Lombatina for your book Jamesp
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No, but she's one to keep a close eye on next time out. By the way, from now on I'm not going to keep confirming or denying whether or not I've backed certain horses, it's just tiresome for other users of the forum. Let's just discuss the merits or otherwise of the horses.
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I havent seen anyone complaining about you mentioning which horses are in your book jamesp. I have no problem revealing mine, so far Gamilati only at 20s. People will be interested in the maths involved in a book shame you wish to hide this and the reduction from your current 4s against the field each time you add another selection as the major trials approach. Good luck however hope you win on the race.
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Freddie Head made the following comments about Lombatina after yesterday's race: "C'est une pouliche très difficile, elle nous donne beaucoup de mal à l'entraînement. Tous les gens qui travaillent pour moi se demandaient où elle allait finir. Elle a un système nerveux déficient. Si cette course lui fait du bien, ça ira, sinon... Elle est allée en main au départ afin qu'elle soit calme." In other words, 'she's a very difficult nervous filly, she has given a lot of trouble at home, she was led to the start to keep her calm, we hope the race will do her good, if not...' It sounds like she's very temperamental and immature, so it's anyone's guess how she will perform next time. Sorry if I put anyone away earlier, I hadn't seen the trainer's comments when I posted earlier. That's not to say that she might not turn out to be very smart... Her next race will tell us a lot more.
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Merci!
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re Lombartina, I doubt anyone backed her anyway without seeing the race.
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The Queen Mary Stakes form of Best Terms and Shumoos has received a timely boost from Fire Lily (fourth at Ascot), who has just won the Gr.3 Anglesey Stakes at the Curragh in emphatic fashion. Some people were quick to write off the Queen Mary form, but it is starting to look a bit stronger now. It's true that Caledonia Lady (third at Ascot) failed to give her running next time in the Cherry Hinton Stakes (she was probably flattered by her finishing position in the Queen Mary), but Shumoos ran well at Newmarket to finish third despite racing too keenly. Kohala (fifth at Ascot) was narrowly beaten in the Dragon Stakes (Listed) at Sandown next time. Vocational (eighth at Ascot) easily beat the Albany Stakes sixth Luv U Forever next time at Chester. On The Dark Side (ninth at Ascot) finished a respectable ninth of 25 in the Weatherbys Super Sprint yesterday, and Somasach (tenth at Ascot) has run well in a couple of Group 3 events behind Experience and Maybe. There's not much to choose between the Queen Mary Stakes form and the Albany Stakes form, in my opinion: the winners of both races are a little way behind the Cherry Hinton winner Gamilati at this stage. Shumoos still has the scope to improve significantly if she can learn to settle better in her races: a change of jockey may be the answer (no disrespect to Martin Dwyer, but it's worth trying another pilot to see if she proves more tractable).
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Lilys Angel again boosted the form of Samitar aswell. She is the definate value (at this stage) but i'd not been keen on a trip to Ireland, its very hard to take on the likes of Aidan,Oxx etc on thier home patch.
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Agree about Samitar. There aren't too many options for a Group 3 winner like her. There's not much point running in another Group 3 race under a penalty and there aren't too many Group 2 and Group 1 races. If they decide to keep her to 6f the Lowther is the obvious target unless they want to wait for the Cheveley Park Stakes (the other Group 1 option, the Prix Morny, might be aiming a bit high). If they want to step her up to 7f, there's the Debutante Stakes over in Ireland followed by the Moyglare Stud Stakes (a race Channon won with Mail The Desert in 2002, the last time it was won by a British-trained filly). I wouldn't favour going for the Debutante - no British-trained filly has won it for over 20 years. Perhaps they will wait for the Rockfel Stakes at the end of the season - Channon has had some success in the race in recent years (with Cairns in 2003, Lahaleeb in 2008 and Music Show in 2009).
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James I wonder whether we should factor in a delay to when the best horses will be out? Remember the end of May time and trainers not able to get their 2 year olds out on the grass. I visited Newmarket at the time and one top trainer said that to me. So maybe some of the better ones won't be out quite so soon this season, I like some of the 2 year olds that have run but have not yet seen one that I thought wow, other than the first run of Shumoos at Haydock.
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