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1000 Guineas (2012)

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By:
jamesp
When: 07 Aug 11 10:59
Racing Post 09:20:
The ground at the Curragh has eased after heavy rainfall hit the track on Saturday.  A total of 13 millimetres fell through Saturday, with the straight course now described as good to yielding, while the round course is good.  Speaking on Sunday morning, course manager Paul Hensey said: "We had 13 millimetres yesterday. It's dry and bright at the moment but there will continue to bethe risk of the odd heavy shower through the day."
By:
jair1970
When: 07 Aug 11 13:14
Playing devil's advocate here a little Figgis, but isn't that a long list of why Maybe has been good but could be better rather than the facts of the matter?

Sure she could be good enough to win this handily but surely, the prices and the facts, particularly your own facts, IMO indicate that she should be swerved.

Nothing she's done suggests she's far in excess of the field here today, yet her reputation and trainer lead her to be a short price.

I'll stick my neck out all of a millimetre and take the Harrington horse with a keen eye on how the ground is.
By:
Figgis
When: 07 Aug 11 13:38
Yes, jair, you're right. Based strictly on the form in the book then it could definitely be argued that the second fav is the value. Maybe's chance is more about potential and I've actually opposed Dream Ahead today for similar reasons to those I've put forward for Maybe. I suppose it comes down to intuition ( which could easily turn out to be garbage) and I just think I've seen enough to be convinced that Maybe is the real deal and is even a bit of value at 13/8. Her time on debut was much better than average for an O'Brien debutant and I've liked what I've seen of her since. I still have reservations about Dream Ahead.
By:
jair1970
When: 07 Aug 11 14:46
Fair enough!

I can't have Dream Ahead at the prices at all, and i'm a fan of the horse.

But you are right, all the stats in the world are hard to follow if it just don't feel right.  An inexact science this lark, no?
By:
unclepuncle
When: 07 Aug 11 14:59
Was - the most expensive yearling in Europe won very tidily on her debut at the Curragh today. Like Miniskirt might be more of a 10f+ filly next year but yet another one to throw into the mix.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 07 Aug 11 15:00
Oh - can I also say what a bloody stupid name they chose for it[>o]
By:
sintonian
When: 07 Aug 11 15:17
Why,Was,Reply,Maybe ...

it might be the new fashion after famous people.

fwiw, Dave Duggan (yuk) said she looked a great specimen in the Paddock.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 07 Aug 11 15:21
Well given her price tag I'd fully expect her to look a million dollars (or guineasSilly)
By:
jamesp
When: 07 Aug 11 15:31
Was saw out the mile trip really well and will clearly relish further than a mile next year, as befits her pedigree (by Galileo out of a half-sister to New Approach).  She travelled like a class filly but didn't do anything in a hurry, she just stayed on really well, and I don't see her as a contender for classic honours over a mile.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 07 Aug 11 15:38
The 'half-sister to New Approach' is a bit of a red herring though James. Alluring Park (Was's dam) was sired by Green Desert and was best at 6f and was herself a full sister to a top sprinter in Japan.
I can't see Was being an Oaks filly thats for sure.
By:
sintonian
When: 07 Aug 11 15:39
Maybe Love

Eased down and looks like she'll get 1 mile easy.

The great thing is Eric doesn't have her in his book,too.
By:
jair1970
When: 07 Aug 11 15:40
Maybe Was a Wonder of Wonders there!
By:
jamesp
When: 07 Aug 11 15:58
It was a very classy performance from Maybe - she showed the classic combination of speed, stamina and acceleration, everything you need in a Guineas filly.  The form looks very solid, with well regarded maiden winners from big stables filling the places and Gr.3 winner Remember Alexander back in fifth.  Teolane once again was very disappointing.  Discourse was impressive yesterday in beating a couple of Listed race winners, but Maybe is the best filly I have seen so far this season and deserves to be a short price for the Guineas.  I was surprised to hear that Dave Duggan thought before today's race that Maybe would turn out to be more of an Oaks filly than a Guineas one - I expect he's changed his mind after that performance.  There is plenty of speed on the dam's side of the pedigree.  I'm very glad I went in 'early' and took the 33/1 after her maiden win!  As an added bonus, the Ger Lyons filly landed the place bet.Happy

unclepuncle, I take your point about there being plenty of speed in Was's pedigree.  I was stretching my point by referring to New Approach.  Even so, the fact that she was starting off over a mile suggests that she may need further than a mile next year.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 07 Aug 11 16:04
Maybe very impressive - similar sort of performance to Discourse, always well placed and put the race to bed very quickly with a smart turn of foot. She is a very worthy favourite.
Would be great if they could meet in the Moyglare or Fillies Mile but somehow I doubt that will happen.
By:
sintonian
When: 07 Aug 11 16:22
La Collina just beat the Colts to further boost the form.

James, early season we experessed doubts about whether AOB would have this filly ready for HQ, given the recent examples of Misty for Me, Roderic O'Connor and Mastercraftsman. But given that Maybe will most likely start 2012 as an unbeaten filly, then perhaps there is everychance he will have her ready for Newmarket so as not to lose the unbeaten record.
By:
sintonian
When: 07 Aug 11 18:17
well done with Lightening Pearl,btw.

Maybe will have her next race in the Moyglare, as will La Collina, according to both connections after the races today.
By:
eric_morris
When: 07 Aug 11 19:37
jamesp have you taken La Collina 10s for your book now?
By:
unclepuncle
When: 07 Aug 11 19:51
La Collina was visually very impressive, getting checked several times yet still weaving through and winning going away. However, Maybe has already beaten her, and besides which Kevin Prendergast has an abysmal record in the English classics - I wouldn't take 7/1 a place let alone the win.
By:
ilikewavingatbuses
When: 07 Aug 11 20:22
eric youre a mug!!
By:
sintonian
When: 08 Aug 11 08:46
Agree Uncle. The majority of Irish trainers tend to favour their classics, understandably, over the English classics. Prendergast has had a number of horses good enough to run in the classics over here in recent years but he saves them for the Curragh etc.
By:
jamesp
When: 08 Aug 11 09:09
La Collina's victory in the Phoenix Stakes was probably the best performance by a juvenile filly so far this season (purely from the form angle), but as others have pointed out Maybe did beat her quite comfortably last time at Leopardstown and the Phoenix result is a massive boost for Maybe's form.  Kevin Prendergast and owner Joerg Vasicek had another smart filly a couple years called Termagant, who won the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes: she was widely quoted for the 1000 Guineas but missed the race and went straight for the Irish Guineas (she finished unplaced and subsequently had problems).  I agree that La Collina is unlikely to be aimed at the English Guineas, but KP is not averse to running good quality horses at Newmarket: he won the 2000 Guineas with Nebbiolo way back in 1977, I haven't checked his record from 1978 to 1987, then from 1988 to 2006 he didn't have a single runner in either the 1000 or 2000 Guineas, but in the last few years he has run Haatef (10th in the 2000 Guineas in 2007), Miss Beatrix (18th in the 1000 Guineas in 2007) and Shimah (11th in the 1000 Guineas in 2009).  Not a terribly inspiring record, but it is noteworthy that all three of those recent Guineas runners were classy two-year-olds: Haatef was a close-up fourth in the Dewhurst, rated RPR 116; Miss Beatrix won the Moyglare Stud Stakes, rated 109; and Shimah was a close second in the Moyglare Stud Stakes, rated 109.  When the trainer has a horse that's good enough (with Group 1 form as a juvenile) he does sometimes bring them over for our Guineas races.  By the way, one major firm has clearly decided to oppose La Collina in their market: they went 20/1 straight after the Phoenix Stakes and are still offering 14/1 (other firms go 7/1 - 10/1).  It will be fascinating to see whether Maybe and La Collina clash again in the Moyglare later this month.
By:
jamesp
When: 08 Aug 11 09:10
had another smart filly a couple years called Termagant
* a couple of years ago
By:
Figgis
When: 08 Aug 11 10:49
In my view, while it was a decent performance from La Collina, the fancied colts all ran below their best, which wasn't entirely a surprise as they've been thoroughly tested recently. The best performance by a filly so far, for me, was from Discourse, not that I'll wading in on her for the classics.
By:
bosra shame
When: 08 Aug 11 12:08
I can't remember a weekend that threw up threepotential Guineas fillies all of whom already look good enough to land an average renewal. Makes it a diffcult market to pick the bones out of but 20/1 La Collina after the Phoenix was massive (Memory was 5/1 after winning a Group 2 !!!) Ladcrooks obviously take the view that she is unlikely to travel.
By:
sintonian
When: 08 Aug 11 12:38
thats a fair point Figgis. Coventry winners have not had a good record in recent years in winning their next start, so that was probably a fair effort from Power yesterday.
By:
jair1970
When: 08 Aug 11 18:25
I'd take nothing away from Power yesterday. 

For all the filly is good, she completely mugged him there.  Think the jockey thought he had it won and she swept by in the last half furlong from nowhere. 

It happens.
By:
cryoftruth
When: 08 Aug 11 21:21
Sorry

quite aside from Power looking to be bred like a sprinter, he was stopping yesterday and it would be just amazing if he won a 2000 Guineas.

The filly looks very strong and Maybe is a worthy 1000 Guineas favourite.
By:
cruise d
When: 10 Aug 11 10:06
Simcock's winner from yesterday Miss Azeza looks like she may turn out to be a nice filly. She beat Show Flower and Caledonia Lady readily despite running green. I appreciate the latter may not have run her race but I think Show Flower is a fair filly and for Miss Azeza to run so well against more experienced opposition is enough for me to keep an eye on her. The time wasn't great but all the times bar one were slow yesterday and I would think the ground may not have been quite as firm as they called it.
By:
jamesp
When: 12 Aug 11 09:58
John Gosden's filly Questing had been a possible runner in the Prix Francois Boutin (Listed) at Deauville this coming Monday but was taken out at the final declaration stage this morning.  A wise move, as she would have had her work cut out to beat the likely favourite Rockinante (runner-up in the Gr.2 Vintage Stakes last time).  She remains a possible runner in the Gr.3 Prix du Calvados on 20 August.

All eyes this afternoon will be on Roger Varian's newcomer Firdaws in the 1.30 at Newbury.  She has already attracted some support for the 1000 Guineas and she is a warm order to beat the colts on her debut.  This daughter of Oaks winner Eswarah is very highly regarded and there will be long faces at Kremlin House Stables if she gets beaten.  The betting suggests that the only danger is John Gosden's newcomer The Nile, a well-regarded son of Three Valleys who has been showing up well on the gallops and has been entered for the Dewhurst.
By:
sintonian
When: 12 Aug 11 13:36
Richards Hills got her beat,imo.
By:
unclepuncle2
When: 12 Aug 11 13:57
Richard Hills is abysmal and should have won but the front 3 finished in a heap so while they are all nice prospects and should achieve black type I don't see any of them being superstars. Of course time may change that view.
By:
Far From Trouble
When: 12 Aug 11 23:05
Hills ffs LaughSad
By:
Augustine
When: 14 Aug 11 00:45
Very decent boost at Donny yesterday to Fallen For You's form. It looks a vintage year.
By:
eric_morris
When: 14 Aug 11 14:45
La Collina to reoppose Maybe in the Moyglare ... interesting race for those without the former in their books.
By:
sintonian
When: 14 Aug 11 14:58
..you took then 10/1 La Collina then Eric ?
By:
sintonian
When: 14 Aug 11 14:59
* the
By:
sintonian
When: 14 Aug 11 15:20
Gamilati 20/1 - Godolphin
Discourse 12/1 - Godolphin
La Collina 10/1 - Prendergast

3 in the Book, and no MAYBE.
By:
the istabraq years
When: 14 Aug 11 15:27
im very happy with my 29-1 fallen for you but i do think this seasons fillies took a great bunch so far...that said, fallen for you is the only one thats took the breath away..i hope she s as good as i think she is.
By:
roobuck
When: 15 Aug 11 14:10
Agree with the general concensus that it looks like it could be a vintage year, so many very good performances. I have only backed Shumoos at 33s and 25s but it looks like that she will not be up to the grade. It may well prove that she is best on a flat track  ( US bred )and I may well give her another chance if she lines up on Thursday as whatever way you look at it, her destruction of Fredrick Engels reads very well. If she were to win and price then contracted for Guineas I would probably lay off for a free bet.

Of the others Discourse and Fallen for You appeal most but not at current prices at this stage. For me this is a dangerous race to play seriously AP until next year because of the depth of the field.

However I am playing another horse - Symposia at very small stakes. She would rate a more obvious candidate for the Oaks and have taken 40s for that but could not resist a  small play at 50s for the Guineas. The dam has produced Aviate ( who really should have been aimed at the Guineas imho ) and Wingwalker who was very highly regarded until his demise. They were both sired by Dansili and Symposia is sired by Galileo that hopefully will provide a little more stamina. I see that it is now in 1st lot at Warren Place and has been given a Fillies Mile entry. That obviously means nothing at this stage but it just appeals as an alternative at much biggers odds
By:
sintonian
When: 15 Aug 11 15:22
It does look a cood year so far. I liked Fallen For You on debut aswell, as it looked strong maiden beforehand, but i'll be bugge-red if I am going to back her at 16/1. That's just a silly price at this stage for a maiden winner.
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