Sir Michael Stoutes form has certainly picked up since the ground has softened up a touch ..

Entries are out for the Gr.3 Princess Margaret Stakes on Saturday:

1     1     Angels Will Fall    B W Hills
2     14117     Betty Fontaine         Mick Channon
3     1     Desert Gazelle         Saeed Bin Suroor
4     15     Hawfinch         John Gosden
5     21     Lady Gorgeous         Mick Channon
6     7162     Luv U Forever         Jo Hughes
7     335     Miss Lahar         Mick Channon
8     123     Nagham             Kevin Ryan
9     511     Piranha         Ed Dunlop
10     916     Red Larkspur         Roger Teal
11     1     Regal Realm         Jeremy Noseda
12     12     Russelliana         Sir Michael Stoute
13         Semayyel         Clive Brittain
14     12281     Vocational         Mark Johnston

Russelliana is the obvious form pick following her excellent second in the Gr.2 Cherry Hinton Stakes and it will take a good one to beat her.  Her trainer Sir Michael Stoute has a very good record in this race, having won it with Hiaam (1986), Enthused (2000), Russian Rhythm (2002) and Visit (2007).  Fillies with prior Group race form used to struggle in the Princess Margaret: in the 18 years from 1982-1999 only three fillies were successful here after running in a Group race, but in the last 11 years there have been six winners that had already run at Group race level, two of those (Enthused and Soraaya) had been runner-up in the Cherry Hinton.

Desert Gazelle and Regal Realm are the pick of the opposition.  The 6f fillies maiden at the Newmarket July meeting used to be a great trial for this: it provided the winner in 1982 (Royal Heroine), 1983 (Desirable), 1984 (Al Bahathri), 1986 (Hiaam), 1987 (Bluebook), 1994 (Tajannub), 1997 (Embassy) and 1998 (Mythical Girl), the latter two trained by David Loder, who used to train juveniles for the Godolphin operation.  Desert Gazelle was an impressive winner of the corresponding maiden this year and rates the main danger to Russelliana. 

Regal Realm won a late-May HQ maiden that couldn't have worked out better: she narrowly beat Gamilati and Samitar, who both went on to win Group races, with Self Centred (subsequently placed in the Chesham Stakes) back in fifth, Elbe (subsequent Doncaster maiden winner) in sixth, and My Propeller (who won next time by 17 lengths) back in seventh.  If one were being hypercritical of the form, one could point to the subsequent performances of the fourth Roedean (third of six in a Kempton maiden next time) and the eighth Damask (well beaten in maidens at Leicester, behind Russelliana, and Newbury).  Regal Realm will need to improve on the bare form of that maiden to win on Saturday, but she has reportedly done 'tremendously well' since her win and could well prove up to the task.  On the downside, she had quite a hard race first time out and she missed the Albany Stakes due to a setback.

Angels Will Fall has missed a number of possible engagements since winning her maiden in very good style at Windsor in May.  She was in a different class from her rivals that day and could be a smart filly in the making, but she needs to improve considerably on that form to figure here.  Lady Gorgeous won in good style at Newbury recently, showing a good turn of foot to beat the well-fancied Cecil-trained filly Tickled Pink (who had been runner-up to Russelliana previously), but the third, fourth and fifth in that race were nothing special and the form leaves her with something to find.  The rest look rather exposed.  It's interesting that eternal optimist Clive Brittain has entered his unraced filly Semayyel, who runs this evening at Windsor (I've had a few speculative and probably ill-advised quid on her for this evening's race at around 40/1, as she must be showing something at home).

Prices depending, I may back Desert Gazelle in this.. think she was probably more impressive than I originally gave her credit for on debut ..

Terrific stuff James

Interestingly,Russelliana is Sir Michael's only entry for the Cheveley Park Stakes in late September. He does, however, have three fillies, two of which are unraced, entered in the previous day's Fillies Mile

The Gr.2 Prix Robert Papin on Sunday looks very unlikely to have any bearing on the 1000 Guineas  Just five go to post and the only two fillies declared to run are the German-trained Kapitala (runner-up to Sylvan Song last time) and the thoroughly exposed Louve Rouge.  The race looks booked for the smart colt Family One, who was an impressive winner of the Gr.3 Prix du Bois last time.

Just laid Russelliana at 1.99, which is surely too short for tomorrow's race.  More likely to be around 5/4 or 11/8, with Regal Realm expected to attract plenty of support.

Desert Gazelles maiden win took a nice boost today with Hello Glory an impressive winner at Ascot for David Simcock.

Hate to agree with Eric, but he does seem to have a point

With regard to Eric's question, no I certainly haven't 'decided' what's going to win the Guineas and I don't know anyone in their right mind who would claim to have done so by this stage of the season.  There is currently no stand-out filly with the requisite combination of speed, acceleration, breeding and physical scope (in short, a filly with the necessary class) that can be put forward with any degree of confidence as a likely Guineas winner.  There is a handful of fillies that have already done enough (in my opinion) to suggest that they could develop into serious Guineas contenders and doubtless others will emerge in the next few weeks.  These are the currently top-rated fillies (according to Racing Post Ratings):

108  Gamilati (M.Al Zarooni)  -221
106  Fire Lily (D.Wachman)  -1341
105  Samitar (M.Channon)  -31
104  Remember Alexander (J.Harrington)  -241
104  Russelliana (M.Stoute)  -126
103  Maybe (A.O'Brien)  -111
103  Shumoos (B.Meehan)  -123
103  Inetrobil (K.Ryan)  -124
101  Teolane (J.Bolger)  -4110
100  Angels Will Fall (B.Hills)  -11
100  Best Terms (R.Hannon)  -111
99   Regal Realm (J.Noseda)  -12
99   La Collina (K.Prendergast)  -12
99   Sajwah (B.Hills)  -175
99   After (A.O'Brien)  -5712

The result of the Gr.3 Princess Margaret Stakes on Saturday merely muddied the waters as far as assessing the 6f fillies is concerned.  The favourite Russelliana clearly failed to give her running (for whatever reason) and the finish was fought out by the only other class fillies in the race, the highly regarded pair Angels Will Fall and Regal Realm.  The running of Betty Fontaine (beaten 5 lengths previously in the Cherry Hinton Stakes and beaten 4½ lengths on Saturday) suggests that there is not much between the top 6f fillies: a strict reading of that form line suggests that Gamilati is just half a length (a pound or two) ahead of Angels Will Fall.  The Princess Margaret Stakes form is devalued to a considerable extent by the proximity in third of 100/1 shot Miss Lahar, who had been beaten in three maidens at Windsor and Bath (each time achieving a rating in the mid-60's), but the runner-up Regal Realm looks a very useful sort who will probably stay a mile.

Of all the 6f fillies we have seen so far Samitar and Angels Will Fall have the most progressive profile.  Samitar won the Gr.3 Albany Stakes in impressive fashion on just her second start.  She was possibly a bit flattered there, as the runner-up Inetrobil had probably done too much and was tiring inside the final furlong, but she certainly has plenty of speed coupled with a very good turn of foot, and her breeding suggests that she has an excellent chance of staying a mile (her grand-sires are Danehill and Rainbow Quest).  A strict interpretation of the Cherry Hinton form (using Inetrobil and Illaunglass as a guide) suggests that Gamilati is about 1½ lengths better than Samitar, although another form line involving Sajwah suggests (rather improbably) that Samitar is five lengths better than Gamilati; either way, it wouldn't surprise me if the lightly-raced Samitar were to end the season on a higher rating than Gamilati.  Angels Will Fall showed excellent speed and acceleration to win what was probably a sub-standard renewal of the Princess Margaret Stakes but her pedigree suggests that 6f is as far as she will want to go and she makes no appeal as a Guineas candidate.  The Queen Mary winner Best Terms and runner-up Shumoos now make very limited appeal as Guineas prospects: the former is a small speedy type who's yet to race beyond the minimum trip, while Shumoos, who appeared to have her limitations exposed in the Cherry Hinton, needs to learn to settle a lot better in her races if she is to excel at 6f let alone a mile.

The Irish filly Fire Lily was a ready winner of the Gr.3 Anglesey Stakes and clearly relished the step up in trip (from 5f to an extended 6f) and the ease in the ground at the Curragh (though the winning time suggests that the ground was riding much faster than the official description of 'yielding to soft').  She is a tough and progressive filly but has already had four races and there must be doubts about her getting a mile, as her dam Beauty Is Truth was a 5f sprinter and from a speedy family.

The 7f division is currently headed by the Irish fillies Maybe and Remember Alexander, who have each won at Gr.3 level.  Maybe's Chesham Stakes form hasn't worked out at all well, but she could do little more than win impressively, and she appeared to be idling in front when beating the highly regarded La Collina in the Gr.3 Silver Flash Stakes last time, where I'm sure she wasn't seen to best advantage: Somasach set a very sedate early pace (the winning time was very slow) and it developed into a two-furlong sprint, but Maybe did enough to win and remains an exciting prospect.  Remember Alexander took a huge leap forward (in terms of form) when running out an easy 4 length winner of the Gr.3 Tyros Stakes at Leopardstown, beating the well regarded colts Parish Hall and Tenth Star, but significantly the ground was officially 'soft' (the winning time was more than seven seconds slower than standard) and it remains to be seen whether she can reproduce that level of form on a faster surface (her jockey reported that she loved the soft ground).

Of the unexposed maiden winners who have yet to contest pattern races, the ones that appeal to me most at this stage are Questing and Desert Gazelle (see previous posts).  Of the fillies that have already contested pattern races the obvious ones to consider for the Guineas are Maybe, Samitar and Gamilati.  It's impossible to assess the maiden winners properly until they have raced again, so at this stage I would single out Maybe as the filly that ticks the most boxes, though obviously her current odds don't make much appeal to those who haven't already backed her at much bigger prices.  I imagine that we will see her next in the Gr.2 Debutante Stakes, where she could once again be taken on by La Collina.  The 6f form still needs a lot of sorting out and I'm hoping that the Gr.2 Lowther Stakes will go some way towards clarifying the picture.

thats the nicest 2 yo filly ive seen this season i think, fallen for you...very impressive and i know its been working really well with a big rep hence it went of fav.

Thats my 1000 g filly.

Another indication of the strength in depth of Gosden's juvenile fillies this season is the victory of Elusive Kate in the Prix Six Perfections (Listed) at Deauville this afternoon.  This is the race that Helleborine won easily on her second start last season and Elusive Kate showed a very good turn of foot to come from last at the furlong pole to score by 1½ lengths.  Her Kempton maiden win has worked out well, with the runner-up Kinetica going on to land the Star Stakes (Listed) at Sandown.

I'll be surprised if Harbour Watch stays a mile.  His sire Acclamation was a sprinter and his best progeny have all been sprinters.  Mind you, I made similar comments about Canford Cliffs (whose sire Tagula had never produced a top miler), so you never know!  The other problem is that it's been 60 years since a Richmond Stakes winner went on to land the Guineas.

The fact that he's been given an entry in the Royal Lodge (as well as the Dewhurst) is encouraging and suggests that they're confident he'll get at least 7f.  Trends (including breeding trends) are there to be broken and if anyone's going to break the Acclamation trend it's probably going to be Hannon!  Good luck.

There's no 2000 Guineas thread, as far as I know (would someone like to start one?)  I tend to concentrate on the fillies, as there tend to be fewer potentially top-class fillies each year than potentially top-class colts (though this year it seems to be the other way round!).  Of the colts I have seen so far this season, I don't fancy Power (who won what looked a far-from-vintage renewal of the Coventry Stakes) or Harbour Watch (doubtful stayer on breeding, but stand to be corrected).  Of the maiden winners, I was taken by the debut wins of Apollo and Rougemont but feel that they will both prove best at distances in excess of a mile.  I've had a small bet on Eastern Sun at around 50/1 and I also like Roger Varian's colt Ektihaam.

goes for the may hill then fillies mile according to johnny g who also says and i quote   "she s been my favourite from day one and does everything right "


Very positive.

I think we need to see how Questing gets on in her next race before deciding whether or not Fallen For You is the best of Gosden's fillies.  Questing was hugely impressive at Newbury and although the form has taken a couple of knocks, the runner-up Way Too Hot is well regarded and could run at Kempton on Wednesday evening.  If all goes well in Questing's next race (possibly the Gr.3 Sweet Solera Stakes next Saturday) I imagine she will be aimed at the Gr.2 May Hill Stakes (if the other filly misses that race) and/or the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac.

It does seem bizarre that Helleborine has not progressed. Maybe there is a problem in the yard. She looked so good as a 2yo.

Confirmed entries are out for the Gr.1 Phoenix Stakes and Gr.2 Debutante Stakes at the Curragh on Sunday. 

Just four fillies have been left in the Phoenix Stakes (After, Homecoming Queen, La Collina and Somasach, all four of whom have also been left in the Debutante Stakes).  The most notable filly to have been taken out of the Phoenix Stakes this morning was Fire Lily.  The colts (Power, Frederick Engels, Lilbourne Lad, Reply et al) appear to hold all the aces.

19 fillies remain in the Debutante Stakes: After, Chieftess, Criostal, Devotion, Homecoming Queen, Illaunglass, Kinetica, La Collina, Lightening Pearl, Maid To Master, Maybe, Redoutable, Remember Alexander, Rubina, Somasach, Soon, Teolane, Tiffilia, Yellow Rosebud.  Notable fillies taken out of the race today include Fire Lily, Inetrobil, Samitar and Switcher).  The race has been won by Irish-trained fillies for the last 20 years, so the stats are firmly against the two remaining British entries (Illaunglass and Kinetica), though their presence would provide useful form lines to races like the Albany Stakes, Cherry Hinton Stakes and Star Stakes.  Maybe will be a warm order to enhance her claims for next year's classics, but Remember Alexander and La Collina will provide a stern test (particularly if the ground turns soft, which will play to Remember Alexander's strengths).  It's a good race for favourites (10 of the last 20 favourites have obliged) and Aidan O'Brien has a good record with his fancied runners (five of his nine runners that started shorter than 2/1 were successful, with three of the unsuccessful runners having failed to win a pattern race beforehand), so the stats point to Maybe maintaining her unbeaten record.  Her Guineas backers will be hoping for a clear-cut and comfortable victory, which would give her a great chance of following up in the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes later in the month.

Yesterday saw the debut of a smart filly in the Prix de Lisieux over 6f at Deauville.  Mashoora, a full-sister to Lowther winner Silk Blossom, showed a smart turn of foot a furlong out and won eased down by 2½ lengths in a winning time that was 2.53s faster than the colts' equivalent race half an hour earlier.  Jean-Claude Rouget's filly looks to have a bright future and could run next in the Gr.3 Prix du Calvados on 20 August.  The Prix de Lisieux has been won by some useful types in the past, notably Conference Call (runner-up to Zarkava in the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac) and East Of The Moon (winner of the French Guineas and Prix de Diane).