Perhaps a virus has gone through the whole yard, it certainly has been a disappointing season for the stable to date...

Mick Channon confirmed today that Samitar will have her next run in the Moyglare. Extra furlong should suit,imo.

Entries are out for the Gr.1 Prix Morny (21 August).  Fillies have a decent record in the race, having won it with the likes of Seven Springs (1984), Regal State (1985), Sakura Reiko (1986), First Waltz (1987), Tersa (1988), Coup De Genie (1993), Hoh Magic (1994), Divine Proportions (2004) and Silca's Sister (2005).  In addition, the following fillies were placed in the Prix Morny and went on to win the following season's 1000 Guineas: Ma Biche, Miesque, Ravinella, Natagora and Special Duty.  This year's entries feature plenty of smart colts, as you would expect (Harbour Watch, Power, Family One, Frederick Engels, Lilbourne Lad etc), plus the following fillies: Lady Gorgeous (Channon), Ruby's Day (O'Neill), Dont Teutch (Smaga), Sotka (Rarick), Louve Rouge (Boutin), Miabeach (Boutin) and Restiadargent (Pantall).  The only filly among that lot that makes any appeal at all is Mick Channon's Lady Gorgeous, who won well at Newbury last time, but as a daughter of Compton Place she has little chance of staying a mile so won't appeal as a Guineas filly even if she acquits herself well at Deauville.

The Gr.3 Prix du Calvados (20 August) may have more significance in terms of the 1000 Guineas picture.  The 20 entries include the smart prospects Mashoora (Rouget), Desert Gazelle (Suroor), Questing (Gosden), Elusive Kate (Gosden) and Fallen For You (Gosden).

Think Desert Gazelle is worth backing eachway today at 4/1. J.Spencer has a good strike rate for SBS, but obviously Frankie jumping ship is a negative.

Interesting that Clive Brittain sticks in a couple of once raced outsiders here. His horses have been running poorly most of the season but he did have a winner and another runner run well at Yarmouth the other day. Semmayel was very slowly away on her debut and was not hard ridden when making up ground late on. At 150/1 shes worth a few quid.

Discourse very impressive there today - seems to have learned plenty from her debuy where she won despite being very green.

Have taken 16/1 straight after the race - my first antepost bet on next years classics.

Would also give Desert Gazelle another chance (if the price warrants it) as she was bumped coming out of the stalls and was in a hopeless position from then on, and also will much prefer decent ground. Hopefully she might be a half decent price next time having been beaten so far.

Who was offering 16/1 straight after the race?  12/1 seems to be the biggest.

Blue SQ

Have you gone in james?

And I cant see Gamilati reversing form should they meet again. Anyone else ?

Rhinestone, I dont think James will divulge his bets/positions any longer, mostly because of the grief and s****ing from Eric Morris.

ok sint, I tried to put him onto it a month or so ago. Couldn't believe people were saying Gamilati was the one to take out of that race...

Will have a watch of that maiden unc, missed it.

... in bold, 12s today.


eric_morris
When: 09 Jul 11 23:01

50/1for past winners means nothing it depends on how many darts you threw. I asked you to break down your book when you were pushing the superior rating of Helleborine over horses x, y and z but you ignored the request.

If you took the 4 horses at 33s and Gamilati 20s for equal profit you have 5/1 against the field. If you also took Desert Gazelle at 33s for equal profit you will have around 4.14/1 against the field. Puts your 50/1 quotes on past winners in perspective.

Now you would be winning the same as someone taking 4/1 the winner on the day next may if she is in these 6.

If you take another 33/1 shot between now and next May you will have 7/2 against the field, another 33/1 shot you have just under 3/1, another four 33/1 shots and you have around 13/8. As I say a single price might sound impressive but when placed in the context of a book above it isnt. You wouldnt be getting 33s from now on either the figures would in reality be much worse with not 33s but you having to take 14s or less after impressive trials.

I thought this was a discussion thread with the intention of highlighting fillies with possible credentials for the 1000 Guineas 2012.

Apparently not!  It's a unrequested and unwarranted deconstruction of betting strategy too!

One wonders quite what the purpose of the naysayer's repeated badgering is?

It appears to be a c0ck-waving contest with one participant.

Keep up the good work jamesp.  That horse today looked smart alright.  The one thing I think we've learnt regading Godolphin (both trainers) is that we should respect anything they run in the 1000 Guineas but I fear that building ante-post positions around them may not be a solid strategy, so often they disappear.

Great race tomorrow on the cards...

Joseph O'Brien says he hopes he'll be able to get down to 9st (!!), a crazy scenario for such race, this isn't a two-bob maiden out in the country FFS!  Personally, and i'm sure i'm not alone here, I was hoping for better from Teolane, whom it's too early to write off, but reports of HEAVY RAIN from the region temper my enthusiasm significantly.  A good performance from Remember Alexander would shake the books up a bit but unless Miss Harrington has learnt fast re: English Classics, we shouldn't get too excited. Throw in maiden winners from Oxx, Weld and Lyons and we have a decent test indeed for the fancied types.  And yet: the Debutante winners roll call reads like a list of horses who didn't come to hand early enough for Newmarket!

Of course, Eric is always right, he has flawless judgement.  The rest of us are just floundering around in the dark, clueless dart-throwers with no chance of making our punting pay in the long run.  We might as well give up forming judgements of our own and copy Eric's bets blindly.

Seriously though, Eric, you're wide of the mark with the assumptions you seem to be making about my betting strategy.  The early bets are always just 'sighters'.  I don't just back a horse to win a certain sum and leave it at that, then back another one to win a similar sum, and so on.  I treat an antepost book like a portfolio of investments, they are constantly being added to as more information comes to light.  It doesn't matter to me whether I end up having an odds-on winner in a race like the 1000 Guineas, the important thing is to make a few thousand quid profit on the race.  Very often the difference between making a substantial profit on a race and just breaking even is having the foresight or the judgement (or the luck!) to back a horse very early at big odds (eg Natagora at 50/1, Special Duty at 50/1).  As the merit of past performances becomes clearer and as other horses (including ones you've already backed for the race) fall by the wayside, you continue to make adjustments to the portfolio.  Take Natagora: I backed her at 50/1 and 40/1 after she won a listed race very impressively on her third start, I backed her again at 33/1 after her win in the Prix Robert Papin and again at 40/1 prior to the Cheveley Park Stakes.  In the case of Special Duty I backed her at 50/1 when she was still a maiden (just before she won the Prix Robert Papin), backed her again at 33/1 after the Papin, and again at 33/1 after the Prix Morny.  A couple of years ago I had a substantial bet on Rainbow View at 25/1 after she won her maiden and topped up at 8/1 after she dotted up in the Sweet Solera next time: she may not have won the Guineas but she was a very smart two-year-old and started odds-on favourite for the classic.  I've done something similar with Maybe, having gone in big at 33/1 after her maiden win and backed her again at 10/1 after the Chesham.  I'm hoping that Maybe turns out to be better than Rainbow View, but only time will tell (tomorrow's race at the Curragh should tell us a lot more about her chances). 

For what it's worth, I've backed Discourse at 12/1 (and not just to small stakes - I managed to get a lumpy four-figure bet on her at that price) and may go in again at 10/1 in due course.  I have not gone overboard on her at this stage, as I suspect that she was racing on the best ground (near the stands' rail), but it was hard not to be impressed by the way she travelled and quickened up, and the visual impression was backed up by a fast time and a well-strung-out field.  I have written off Desert Gazelle and am happy to admit that I got that one wrong: she looked impressive on debut but there wasn't much substance to the form (the runner-up Cheworee had been beaten nearly eight lengths by Discourse previously and several of the unplaced fillies have shown themselves to be very ordinary).  I have more or less written off Shumoos, who seems to have gone the wrong way since that impressive debut win over Frederick Engels at Haydock: she will have one more chance to show her class (possibly in the Lowther).  I remain keen on Samitar, Gamilati and the Gosden-trained pair Questing and Fallen For You.

The next key races (after tomorrow's Debutante Stakes) will be the Lowther (18 August), Prix du Calvados (20 August), Prestige Stakes (27 August) and Moyglare Stud Stakes (28 August).  It's still early days, we've already seen some very nice fillies but the next three weeks will tell us a lot more.  At this stage the 7f fillies (especially Maybe and Discourse) seem to have the edge over the best of the 6f fillies.

Better still as the race is still nearly 9 months away just block the idiot now.

The 2 grand required on Discourse takes into account your 4 early 'sighters' to a total stake of around 3 and a half grand as you mentioned on this thread. The reality is you are unlikely to have got 2 grand on so you will be adding at 10s and lower as she shortens up reducing your overall 5/2 even further. You seem to be heading towards an even money book or worse, probably odds on come the day with at least say 3 of your current 7 stated (you may have more) not making the race, not a good state of affairs re covering the rest of the field late.

jamesp, think you mentioned you lost on this years race with the Blue Bunting victory. If you didnt use late covering on her which will lead to an odds on book for next years race using a similar late covering of the field strategy then judging by your staking levels you will have lost approaching 5 figures on this years race. Alternatively with the demise of Helleborine you may have written off your book by covering heavily on all outsiders late to get your stakes back. As you said you lost it is likely to be the former.

Your current position will make it very difficult to mathematically cover the outsiders or 'Blue Buntings' in next years race while maintaining a decent profit ratio.

What you have here is an uphappy soul trying to revel in the perceived misfortune of someone else. We all know Eric is a losing gambler as evidenced with this years Derby ''book'' and his sudden late switch to Pour Moi, even though he had adamantly stated Pour Moi would not even go to Epsom and was not good enough. Another big loss there, methinks.

For anyone reading this thread who has not participated yet, but just likes to read along, may I point you in the direction of the Irish Arkle thread on Cheltenham forum just so you can get a flavour of how shrewd clevercloggs Eric is .. backed three horses in a 7 runner race and still came out with a bloodied nose.

On these forums over the years i've not seen anyway display the extensive knowledge of the pattern for 2yos like Jamesp has, and to go with it extensive knowledge and understanding of breeding, historical results,trainer patterns and targets, market moves and results. I think the fact that Eric Morris being the only person trying to attack Jamesp speaks volumes. Perhaps he is just a little envious of his skills.

The only one who is interested in it and continually brings it up is .. guess who ? He's clear unhappy with something.

It is most odd however given he posted bets of Memory,Moonlight Cloud and Havant ... another heavy loss. It's jus bewildering why he'd bring up his losses continually.

* going